Ovechkin's 65 and Gretzky's 92

Zuluss

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May 19, 2011
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Gretzky outperformed second place by a factor of 1.44x and fifth place by 1.70x.

Ovechkin outperformed second place by 1.25x and fifth place by 1.51x.

This is an overly simplistic analysis and just one way to skin this cat. But it seems clear to me that Gretzky's 92-goal season was more special in relation to his peers than Ovechkin's.

That's a good starting point, and I am a big believer in % leads over 5th/10th place as a way of measuring dominance.

One thing to check though is whether it has become harder to lead the pears by big margins in the 80s (with expansion/WHA teams and no Soviets/Czechs) and in the 2000s.

In the 80s, the average lead of the goal-scoring title winner over the 5th place in goals was 41%. The average lead of #2 in goals over #5 in goals was 17%.
In the 2000s, the same two numbers were 25% and 13%. Let's pay more attention to the second pair, because the first probably just says 2000s did not have its own Gretzky who would win five goal-scoring titles in style.

So, in the 80s, #2 led #5 by 17%, and in the 2000s #2 led #5 by 13%. That's a 30% difference (17/13=1.3). Which means that given the increased level of competition, in 2000s Greztky probably would have led #5 not by 1.7x, but by 1.7/1.3=1.3x. And Ovechkin led by 1.51x, so Ovechkin's 65-goal season is better.

We can take longer samples and pitch the high-scoring era of 1970-1996 vs. the current low-scoring era (1997-2017). The result will not be as extreme: in 1970-96, #2 led #5 in goals by 16%, in 1997-2017, by 13.8%, the ratio of 1.16. So, given the increased competition, in the modern times Gretzky would have led #5 by 1.7/1.16=1.47x. Ovechkin's 1.51x are still better by a hair.
 

Thenameless

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Apr 29, 2014
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There are many ways to analyze this statistically. One method has shown that Gretzky dominated peers to a greater degree, while another method has shown that Ovechkin has dominated peers to a greater degree. I still think Gretzky's 92 was more difficult and impressive, and here's my take on it.

As the absolute number in difference increases, the percentage difference gets smaller. For example, if #1 finished with 50 goals and #2 finished with 25 goals, then #2 scored 50% as many goals as #1 did. Now, if #1 scored 75 goals and #2 scored 50 goals, then #2 scored 66% as many goals as #1 did, even though the absolute difference still remains at 25 goals. The thing is, like with baseball home runs in a season, hockey goals in a season get harder and harder as the number increases because one has only so many games to accomplish the task. So if guys from #2 through to #10 have higher goal totals, the #1 guy has to have a much higher absolute difference in order to maintain the same percentage dominance.

You can also have other real world concerns like 82 games vs 80 games, power play time, offensive zone starts, TOI, and a big one in injuries. In order to attain a 92 goal season (more than one per game average), most/all of these things have to align in your favour. You'd be able to have the extra off-night when you're only chasing 65, as the odd hat trick or 4 goal game gives a much greater cushion.
 

Nino33

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Jul 5, 2015
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One thing to check though is whether it has become harder to lead the pears by big margins in the 80s (with expansion/WHA teams and no Soviets/Czechs) and in the 2000s.
There wasn't any expansion in the 80s nor were there any WHA teams: there was actually a significant reduction in teams...in 1974 the NHL+ WHA equaled 32 teams, in 1976 30 teams, and in 1978-79 (the last season of the WHA) there were 24 teams.....in the few years before Gretzky joined the NHL the total number of NHL/WHA teams was reduced massively (by a third)

Also, while the Soviets were still able to keep there players from leaving the country many top Czechs played in the NHL in the 80s (the defections started in the early 70s), players like Petr Svoboda Jiri Hrdina, Petr Klima, Frantisek Musil, Michal Pivonka, etc (and Hlinka/Bubla were allowed to come to NA too)
 

Feed Me A Stray Cat

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Mar 27, 2005
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That's a good starting point, and I am a big believer in % leads over 5th/10th place as a way of measuring dominance.

One thing to check though is whether it has become harder to lead the pears by big margins in the 80s (with expansion/WHA teams and no Soviets/Czechs) and in the 2000s.

In the 80s, the average lead of the goal-scoring title winner over the 5th place in goals was 41%. The average lead of #2 in goals over #5 in goals was 17%.
In the 2000s, the same two numbers were 25% and 13%. Let's pay more attention to the second pair, because the first probably just says 2000s did not have its own Gretzky who would win five goal-scoring titles in style.

So, in the 80s, #2 led #5 by 17%, and in the 2000s #2 led #5 by 13%. That's a 30% difference (17/13=1.3). Which means that given the increased level of competition, in 2000s Greztky probably would have led #5 not by 1.7x, but by 1.7/1.3=1.3x. And Ovechkin led by 1.51x, so Ovechkin's 65-goal season is better.

We can take longer samples and pitch the high-scoring era of 1970-1996 vs. the current low-scoring era (1997-2017). The result will not be as extreme: in 1970-96, #2 led #5 in goals by 16%, in 1997-2017, by 13.8%, the ratio of 1.16. So, given the increased competition, in the modern times Gretzky would have led #5 by 1.7/1.16=1.47x. Ovechkin's 1.51x are still better by a hair.

I think we need to look a bit deeper into this figures. Perhaps looking at the 1980s as a whole is skewed by the presence of the two best players of all-time?

1980s Years when Gretzky was the scoring leader (1st / 2nd / 5th):
81-82: Gretzky @ 92 / Bossy @ 64 / Vaive @ 54 (1.44x / 1.70x)
82-83: Gretzky @ 71 / McDonald @ 66 / Dionne @ 56 (1.08x / 1.27x)
83-84: Gretzky @ 87 / Goulet @ 56 / Kurri @ 52 (1.55x / 1.67x)
84-85: Gretzky @ 73 / Kurri @ 71 / Ogrodnick @ 55 (1.03x / 1.33x)
86-87: Gretzky @ 62 / Kerr @ 58 / Ciccarrelli @ 52 (1.07x / 1.19x)

1980s Years when Gretzky wasn't the scoring leader (1st / 2nd / 5th):
80-81: Bossy @ 68 / Dionne @ 58 / Gretzky @ 55 (1.17x / 1.24x)
85-86: Kurri @ 68 / Bossy @ 61 / Goulet @ 53 (1.12x / 1.28x)
87-88: Lemieux @ 70 / Simpson @ 56 / Nieuwendyk @ 51 (1.25x / 1.37x)
88-89: Lemieux @ 85 / Nicholls @ 70 / Mullen @ 51 (1.21x / 1.67x)
89-90: Hull @ 72 / Yzerman @ 62 / LaFontaine @ 54 (1.16x / 1.33x)

These numbers actually seem pretty consistent to me outside of three performances - Gretzky in 81-82, Gretzky in 83-84 and Lemieux in 88-89. Stripping these three out of the sample reveals an average for the decade of 1.12x / 1.29x, fairly close to your 2000s average. Now I'm sure if I stripped the top three outliers outside of the 2000s average it would go down, but I'm suspecting not by nearly as much.

I don't think it's clear that the 1980s featured a wider disparity in scoring at the top level. Also, what's the theoretical basis behind that? Why would Gretzky feast off weak defenses more than Dionne in the 1980s compared to Iginla to Alfredsson in the 2000s?
 
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daver

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Wayne's GPG of 1.15 was 67% better than the GPG of the other Top Ten goalscorers.

OV's GPG of .79 was 39% better than the GPG of the other Top Ten goalscorers.

Bossy's GPG in 78/79 was 46% better than the GPG of the other Top Ten goalscorers.

Hull's GPG in 65/66 was 93% better than the GPG of the other Top Ten goalscorers.
 
Jan 9, 2007
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Maybe I'm just too poor at math, but to me Gretzky's 92 vs second place Bossy's 64 goals is more impressive than Ovechkin's 65 vs Kovalchuk's 52 goals. It's noteworthy that only 18 of Gretzky's 92 goals were on the PP while 22 of OV's 65 were.
 
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613Leafer

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May 26, 2008
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might want to also factor the elimination of 2 line offside, 4 on 4 hockey, far less hitting, 30 years of watching tape on Gretzky to see how he does his magic, better food, better equipment, and better training ...........oh and rubber band sling shot hockey sticks.

:)

That actually makes it harder on the star players I'd argue. Even 4th line plugs these days have superb fitness levels. A lot harder to dominate a league filled with people in very good physical condition with better training than in years past.
 

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