Ottawa Sun "You Be The Boss Survey"

[Ice-Tray]

Ignoring RFA vs UFA status is irrational.
Ignoring the rising cap is irrational.
Ignoring Karlsson's ability to play half the game and tilt the ice like no other player is irrational.
If you think Karlsson's agent can't make a "rational" case for at least matching McDavid's 12.5 you are kidding yourself.

What the team decides with regards to this has ZERO effect on Karlsson's market value. A 10-11M dollar deal is a hometown discount. EK would get far more if he holds out until UFA status next summer.

The bolded part has been proven to be pure and adulterated BULL**** and is one of the many reasons few still trust Melnyk.

We can't "cash in huge" on Karlsson if we attach salary dumps to any deal.

If our owner can't pay market value for our generational player, he has no business owning a team and should sell immediately.

Enough beating around the bush already, why don't you let us all know how you really feel.

 

[L'Aveuglette]

I posted this a couple weeks ago but I'll say it again. I did some quick research (so correct if I'm wrong) but other than the Penguins (who have a generational talent in Crosby), no other team has won a Cup with a player having a cap hit of more than $8M per. Now this is bound to change as the cap goes up but interesting none the less...

I'm not saying we should trade Karlsson but we do need to think long and hard about this, perhaps even more so since we are a budget team.

Let's see if Nashville can do it this year to make it two...

That's some pretty slick cherry-picking there. Kinda obvious that the Pens would be the only team to win the Cup with $8M+ players given they've won the last two years.

Nonetheless, literally every team that's won in the last ten years were cap teams. Pens, Hawks, Kings, Bruins.....All of them filled with elite players. The Pens might win their 3rd in a row and become a true dynasty, and it's largely because they found a way to keep both Malkin and Crosby at high salaries while still paying guys like Kessel a sturdy paycheck.

If you think the Senators might do better without their only truly elite player I have some bad news for you. The real problem is the budget. And whether we keep EK or not, we likely won't be winning the Cup until we spend to the cap regularly.

 

[Dino Tkachuk]

That's some pretty slick cherry-picking there. Kinda obvious that the Pens would be the only team to win the Cup with $8M+ players given they've won the last two years.

Nonetheless, literally every team that's won in the last ten years were cap teams. Pens, Hawks, Kings, Bruins.....All of them filled with elite players. The Pens might win their 3rd in a row and become a true dynasty, and it's largely because they found a way to keep both Malkin and Crosby at high salaries while still paying guys like Kessel a sturdy paycheck.

If you think the Senators might do better without their only truly elite player I have some bad news for you. The real problem is the budget. And whether we keep EK or not, we likely won't be winning the Cup until we spend to the cap regularly.

Oh come on....that's hardly cherry picking.... You put Crosby on the Sens, all other things being equal, and the Sens probably have at least one cup by now too. Go back as far as you like and look it up. I didn't limit it to the last 2 years....I believe in fact it's "in the history of the league".

Now before you say we have Karlsson, I consider Karlsson=Malkin.

As to your point about being a cap team, I completely agree. Unfortunately that has more to do with being able to afford quality depth than it does with top paid players. That is what I'm seeing and Vegas is proving that right now.

For the record, Pittsbugh depth is also very good...

 

[stempniaksen]

That's why I chose to include them. 9 million is not 12 million or more.

So your argument against making Karlsson the highest paid defenceman in the league is that the current team with the highest paid defenceman in the league are the President trophy winners and cup favourites?

It's called inflation man, you can't just not pay your star players because they are asking for star player money. how many other superstar players have moved in the last decade because the team couldn't afford them, or refused to make a fair market offer? None? Maybe one? It would be (will be?) bush league of the organization to not step up and pay one of the very best players in the league.

 

[stempniaksen]

Oh come on....that's hardly cherry picking.... You put Crosby on the Sens, all other things being equal, and the Sens probably have at least one cup by now too. Go back as far as you like and look it up. I didn't limit it to the last 2 years....I believe in fact it's "in the history of the league".

Now before you say we have Karlsson, I consider Karlsson=Malkin.

As to your point about being a cap team, I completely agree. Unfortunately that has more to do with being able to afford quality depth than it does with top paid players. That is what I'm seeing and Vegas is proving that right now.

For the record, Pittsbugh depth is also very good...

Yeah, but that's cherry picking too. How many players have made $8+ million/season in the "history of the league"? It's a fairly recent phenomenon with salaries going up. Also, Joe Sakic was making $7.9 million when the Avs won in 2001, and that's just off the top of my head.

 

[Dino Tkachuk]

Yeah, but that's cherry picking too. How many players have made $8+ million/season in the "history of the league"? It's a fairly recent phenomenon with salaries going up. Also, Joe Sakic was making $7.9 million when the Avs won in 2001, and that's just off the top of my head.

My point is that people are throwing around 11 and 12 million for Karlsson like it's a no brainer. This is not a slam dunk decision, especially for a budget team and I would argue that most teams would be cautious given the history of salaries in the NHL (Edmonton excluded...). Now I have said in previous posts that this will change as the salary cap increases so agreed there.

As far as "cherry picking", it's anything but...$8M is on the low end of the salary for what I would consider a star player.

As to your Sakic example, what was his AAV as that's what's important in a cap era?

 

[stempniaksen]

My point is that people are throwing around 11 and 12 million for Karlsson like it's a no brainer. This is not a slam dunk decision, especially for a budget team and I would argue that most teams would be cautious given the history of salaries in the NHL (Edmonton excluded...). Now I have said in previous posts that this will change as the salary cap increases so agreed there.

As far as "cherry picking", it's anything but...$8M is on the low end of the salary for what I would consider a star player.

As to your Sakic example, what was his AAV as that's what's important in a cap era?

It wasn't a cap era, I only brought it up because you brought up the arbitrary $8 million. But if it was his caphit would be higher than $8, because there are years around it where he made $10+ (Rangers offer sheet).

Also, I'd argue that there is no other team in the league who would let the best player in franchise history leave over salary concerns. Even other budget teams would back up the brinks truck for their star player, as evidence by every star player of the last 10 years re-singing with heir team (except Suter/Parise I guess, who apparently both left money on the table to go home).

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

10-11 M is well below market value. If EK signs for that, then he is taking a hometown discount and should be praised accordingly.

Well below???

So who is it, that is establishing the "market value" for a D man of EK65s ilk, that would make 10-11 Million "well below" market value?

 

[BatherSeason]

Oh come on....that's hardly cherry picking.... You put Crosby on the Sens, all other things being equal, and the Sens probably have at least one cup by now too. Go back as far as you like and look it up. I didn't limit it to the last 2 years....I believe in fact it's "in the history of the league".

Now before you say we have Karlsson, I consider Karlsson=Malkin.

As to your point about being a cap team, I completely agree. Unfortunately that has more to do with being able to afford quality depth than it does with top paid players. That is what I'm seeing and Vegas is proving that right now.

For the record, Pittsbugh depth is also very good...

Euge would have sold Crosby off like he is doing with EK before we found any success.

 

[Sensung]

Well below???

So who is it, that is establishing the "market value" for a D man of EK65s ilk, that would make 10-11 Million "well below" market value?

Feel free to add your input...
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/ek-as-a-ufa.2479497/

 

[Ice-Tray]

So your argument against making Karlsson the highest paid defenceman in the league is that the current team with the highest paid defenceman in the league are the President trophy winners and cup favourites?

It's called inflation man, you can't just not pay your star players because they are asking for star player money. how many other superstar players have moved in the last decade because the team couldn't afford them, or refused to make a fair market offer? None? Maybe one? It would be (will be?) bush league of the organization to not step up and pay one of the very best players in the league.

No, my point is that we can have the highest paid defence man, but we still have to be conscious about leaving enough money available to build a strong surrounding cast, I thought that would be pretty obvious.

And given that I said 12+ and not 9+ I thought it would be pretty obvious that I was taking into account some inflation. I also think that they would be fine, and could even get better if they were able to unload Subban. He's not exactly a poster boy for a well spent 9 million a season.

It's not bush league at all to be priced out of paying a single player an amount that would start tanking your team's ability to contend. Team's may not have let these guys go, but several of them that have done it are not looking good now, and in the future. They have to keep shedding talent to keep cheaper players around their big money stars.

It's not looking great around the league for teams like Chicago, Edmonton, even the the
Leafs have depth issues that will only get worse and so I hope PD is having a good hard look at this team going forward.

Fair market is a smoke and mirrors concept when there is no market able to make offers. HF is classic for arbitrarily deciding what they think market value is, and then arguing that number like it's a fact. I hope the team sticks between 10-11 million, and even then it's a gamble, and if EK wants more then we can seriously consider what we can get for him. That is far too much money to pay a single player, especially one coming off a history of leg injuries, and questionable season on several levels, and would be locked in for 8 years.

It's never about stepping up, that's just cool kid speak, it's about evaluating how much of the budget can go to one player without harming our chances to put together a deep enough team to make the playoffs and compete for a cup within the next 8 years. You peg that number and you don't cross it.

That's how I feel.

 

[stempniaksen]

No, my point is that we can have the highest paid defence man, but we still have to be conscious about leaving enough money available to build a strong surrounding cast, I thought that would be pretty obvious.

And given that I said 12+ and not 9+ I thought it would be pretty obvious that I was taking into account some inflation. I also think that they would be fine, and could even get better if they were able to unload Subban. He's not exactly a poster boy for a well spent 9 million a season.

It's not bush league at all to be priced out of paying a single player an amount that would start tanking your team's ability to contend. Team's may not have let these guys go, but several of them that have done it are not looking good now, and in the future. They have to keep shedding talent to keep cheaper players around their big money stars.

It's not looking great around the league for teams like Chicago, Edmonton, even the the
Leafs and so I hope PD is having a good hard look at this team going forward.

Fair market kit a smoke and mirrors concept when there is no market able to make offers. I hope the team sticks between 10-11 million, and even then it's a gamble, and if EK wants more then we can seriously consider what we can get for him. That is far too much money to pay a single player, especially one coming off a history of leg injuries, and questionable season on several levels, and would be locked in for 8 years.

It's never about stepping up, that's just cool kid speak, it's about evaluating how much of the budget can go to one player without harming our chances to put together a deep enough team to make the playoffs and compete for a cup within the next 8 years. You peg that number and you don't cross it.

That's how I feel.

I'm not gonna break it down point by point because it seems like we're on completely different sides of this argument and neither one of us is gonna budge. Agree to disagree here I suppose.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

10-11 M is well below market value. If EK signs for that, then he is taking a hometown discount and should be praised accordingly.

So who is it, that is establishing the "market value" for a D man of EK65s ilk, that would make 10-11 Million "well below" market value?

Don't post a link, to deflect .......... give us a name of a player(s), Defense , that is EK65's "Comparable" that will be brought up in negotiations, to establish "market value".

To my knowledge, there is no D man with an AAV above $11 Million, in the NHL today.


When you clearly state that 10-11M is "well below market value" for EK65 ....... you must have something tangible to base it on ............... you just don't pull that number out of thin air, do you?

 

[topshelf15]

So who is it, that is establishing the "market value" for a D man of EK65s ilk, that would make 10-11 Million "well below" market value?

Don't post a link, to deflect .......... give us a name of a player(s), Defense , that is EK65's "Comparable" that will be brought up in negotiations, to establish "market value".

To my knowledge, there is no D man with an AAV above $11 Million, in the NHL today.


When you clearly state that 10-11M is "well below market value" for EK65 ....... you must have something tangible to base it on ............... you just don't pull that number out of thin air, do you?

PK,s 9 million s the bar,however Burn,s contract is also interesting...I have EK resigning at 10.5 to 11 mil,only after he sees Stone and Duchene resign....

There is a way out of this mess,its going to take some work though...

 

[Sensung]

So who is it, that is establishing the "market value" for a D man of EK65s ilk, that would make 10-11 Million "well below" market value?

Don't post a link, to deflect .......... give us a name of a player(s), Defense , that is EK65's "Comparable" that will be brought up in negotiations, to establish "market value".

To my knowledge, there is no D man with an AAV above $11 Million, in the NHL today.


When you clearly state that 10-11M is "well below market value" for EK65 ....... you must have something tangible to base it on ............... you just don't pull that number out of thin air, do you?

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/ek-as-a-ufa.2479497/

Feel free to add your number.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/ek-as-a-ufa.2479497/

Feel free to add your number.

Weak answer...... kinda expected that though.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

PK,s 9 million s the bar,however Burn,s contract is also interesting...I have EK resigning at 10.5 to 11 mil,only after he sees Stone and Duchene resign....

There is a way out of this mess,its going to take some work though...

So we both can agree that 10-11 M would not be "well below market value" as suggested by Sensung......who can't, or won't support that assertion.

 

[aragorn]

Does Las Vegas have a generational player?

 

[topshelf15]

So we both can agree that 10-11 M would not be "well below market value" as suggested by Sensung......who can't, or won't support that assertion.

The big problem is Doughty...But in general yes 10 to 11,for 8 seasons should be fair

 

[aragorn]

The big problem is Doughty...But in general yes 10 to 11,for 8 seasons should be fair

My guess is that he will want to be the highest paid defenceman in the league & it probably will start at $12 mil per season or more given the salary cap is going to continue to rise every yr. They really should look at what offers there could be for this guy, is he really going to make this team next season that much better than they were this season? Or the season after that?

Not if they get crappy goaltending IMO, so unless they intend on building a Stanley Cup contending team over the next 5 yrs or so, is it worth it to sign this guy for so much money when they might be able to buy two very good NHL players for the same price? Las Vegas seems to be a pretty good team without a generational player on it but they do have good goaltending.

 

[Sensung]

So we both can agree that 10-11 M would not be "well below market value" as suggested by Sensung......who can't, or won't support that assertion.

You really are special.

Add a number and make your case. I'll then follow suit.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/ek-as-a-ufa.2479497/

30 people have voted so far, but not 1 has gone 10M+...you can be a real trendsetter!

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

You really are special.

Add a number and make your case. I'll then follow suit.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/ek-as-a-ufa.2479497/

30 people have voted so far, but not 1 has gone 10M+...you can be a real trendsetter!

Why not admit that you were off base, when claiming 10-11 M, for Karlsson, would be "well below market value"?



Instead you just post a link to a locked thread?



Which D man, in the NHL has an AAV well above 10-11 M?

 

[Heady Topper]

Why not admit that you were off base, when claiming 10-11 M, for Karlsson, would be "well below market value"?



Instead you just post a link to a locked thread?



Which D man, in the NHL has an AAV well above 10-11 M?

You will be provided with no links and no evidence because when you are, you run away and ignore that you were wrong. You've made it clear that you're just misinformed and trying to push a narrative. Go calculate how much the cap went up, state of individual contracts, said player etc yourself and figure it out. No one here works for you.

 

[Micklebot]

If you're trying to establish what Karlsson is worth on the open market, there are a few interesting contracts out the to look at.

Subban currently has the highest Dman contract in terms of Average salary at 9 mil. His deal was worth 13.04% of the cap at the time it was signed. He was re-signed by his team, so not on the open market

Weber currently has the highest outright salary for a Dman. He was signed before additional restrictions to contract length were put in place, and via a matched offer sheet, so with an open market setting the price, but with penalties associated (draft picks to be sent if not matched). He currently makes 12 mil this year, but with an average salary of 7.857. His deal was 13.10% of the cap at the time it was signed, but include 8 years out of the total 14 on the tail end designed to drop down the cap hit. Dropping off the last 4 years which were obvious cap circumvention years, you get an AAV of 10.4 mil, which would have been 17.33% of the cap at the time of signing. I don't think market value for a player equivalent to Weber signed to day would be the actual deal signed (taking into account inflation) or the hypothetical cap % of a deal had there been none of the cap circumventing years, so market value probably falls somewhere in the middle.

Now, it's worth pointing out that unlike Weber and Subban, Karlsson's name gets floated around with the absolute best players in the game; guys like Crosby and McDavid. Perhaps he's a not behind them, but the fact remains his value to a team likely comfortably exceeds that of either Weber or Subban at the time they signed their deals.

So;

Weber: 7.857 mi, 13.10% of the cap
Weber (sans cap circumventing years or CC yrs): 10.4 mil, 17.33%
Subban: 9 mil, 13.04% of the cap

Looking at what some of the top players in the league got:

McDavid: 12.5 mil, 16.67% of the cap
Kane/Toews: 10.5 mil, 15.22% of the cap
Kopitar: 10 mil, 13.70% of the cap
Ovechkin*: 9.538 mil, 16.82% of the cap
Malkin: 9.5 mil, 14.77% of the cap
Crosby**: 8.7 mil, 14.5% of the cap
Crosby (sans CC yrs): 10.6 mil, 17.66% of the cap

* Ovechkin's deal was signed before term restrictions, but did not attempt to circumvent the cap with extra years at a drastically reduced salary
** Like Weber, Crosby's deal was signed before term restrictions and includes cap circumventing years. It would have been ~17.66% of the cap without the final 3 years.

Based on the above contracts, if you buy into the concept that forwards get more than Dmen (I'd argue pts producers get more, and as a result, dmen typically get less, but since Karlsson produces like elite forwards, his market value won't be typical) my guess is that Karlsson's market value is probably around 14-16% of the cap. I think I'd equate Subban's contract to Kopitar's; I think both guys would garner similar levels of interest. Karlsson to me is clearly a tier above them in terms of league interest, more in the Malkin and Kane range, but maybe not the Ovechkin, McDavid, Crosby (adjusted for cap circumvention) range.

A deal at 14-16% of the cap would be 11.2 to 12.8 mil of an 80 mil cap or 10.92 to 12.48 of a 78 mil cap. So, while I don't know if I'd call 10.5-11 well below market value, I would say it's below the lower end of my expectation for market value. Basically, if we get Karlsson in that range, I'll consider it a home town discount. If we get him below 10, it's a veritable steal for the team.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

You will be provided with no links and no evidence because when you are, you run away and ignore that you were wrong. You've made it clear that you're just misinformed and trying to push a narrative. Go calculate how much the cap went up, state of individual contracts, said player etc yourself and figure it out. No one here works for you.

Your comrade in arms, Sensung stated that an offer (to EK65) of 10-11 Million, would be "well below market value" ............ are you seriously backing him up in that claim?