Value of: Ottawa getting their pick back (Colorado)?

[Hasbro]

Well, the rumor going around Ottawa is an ownership change this July. And those possible new owners have really deep pockets.

If it happens, Ottawa will not be a lotto pick. We'll keep Erik, Stone and our core...and perhaps even add to ensure we make the playoffs next year.

Tall order to buy the team, get a competent staff and then hit the free agency market in under a month.

 

[Hasbro]

Trading for the pick increases the likelihood that Ottawa tanks which in itself increases the value of Ottawa's first.

It would take the pressure off as The Senators would be free to wallow in their own crapulence.

So how's about:

To Ottawa:
16th

To Colorado:
4th
Conditional 2nd if next year's Ottawa pick is in the lottery.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Well, the rumor going around Ottawa is an ownership change this July. And those possible new owners have really deep pockets.

If it happens, Ottawa will not be a lotto pick. We'll keep Erik, Stone and our core...and perhaps even add to ensure we make the playoffs next year.

having a rich owner isn't going to magically fix the putrid defense(Outside of Karlsson), the even worse goaltending, and the poor forward depth. And it especially isn't going to get you out of a division that already has 3 legit cup contenders in Toronto, Boston, and Tampa.



Sens pick will be in the lottery next year. It's just a question of whether it's 11-15 with very little realistic chance at Top 3. 6-10 with a decent chance at being in the Top 3 and guaranteed Top 10. Or 1-5 with a very high probability of remaining a Top 5 pick.

 

[Meeqs]

Lets be real, the point of the question "what could Ott do to get its pick back?" is there to highlight how screwed Ott is, not an actual answer. There isn't anything Ott has that the Avs would want more than that pick, its one of the highest values commodities in the NHL. Especially with how the Lottery works now adays and the impact a top 3 players give for a young rebuilding team like Col, the ask would be absurd.

If you are trying to rationalize a deal you are almost certainly being foolish.

 

[missionAvs]

What kind of Sens fan are you? Go cheer for another team you loser.

He's not wrong with his post. The 1st is a tough pill to swallow from a Sens perspective but the pick is gone. Only thing the Sens can do is move on and unfortunately for them, a very high pick would not only be good for the Avs but it would also serve to hold the current Sens front office more accountable for a shit trade.

That said, we have no clue where that pick ends up so we'll see.

 

[Canada4Gold]

If I'm Ottawa I have to decide what I'm doing with the direction of that team before this years draft and if it's the direction of trading Karlsson and rebuilding then giving up the 4th overall pick this year is the way I would prefer to go I think. I also believe that Colorado getting #4 this year would be preferable for them than gambling on next years pick location. The question then becomes would Colorado be willing to give up anything to get the 4th overall pick instead of gambling on the pick next year.

If I'm Ottawa and decide that we're trading Karlsson and rebuilding then I've giving up 4th overall assuming Dahlin, Svech, and Zadina are gone, and hoping I can pry a 2nd out of the Avs to do it. I don't think you can decide to rebuild not owning that pick, the optics of it aren't great. Not owning it would put pressure on them to compete which could be the bad decision if Karlsson won't stay.

The mechanics of the deal would be a bit weird as I'm not sure you could just do it the way of here's a pick to sway you into doing this(which may be possible with future consideration wording), but the workaround could just be, Ottawa keeps their 2018 pick officially which then officially transfers the 2019 pick to Colorado, and then the trade goes 4th overall to Colorado for 2019 OTT 1st + 47th overall

I'm a neutral party, but I'm curious, Avs fans, would you prefer Ottawa keep their pick this year, and take the gamble on the 2019 pick, or would you prefer 4th overall? And if you'd prefer 4th overall would you be willing to add anything(a pick of any kind) to ensure the Sens would take that route?

 

[Eltuna]

having a rich owner isn't going to magically fix the putrid defense(Outside of Karlsson), the even worse goaltending, and the poor forward depth. And it especially isn't going to get you out of a division that already has 3 legit cup contenders in Toronto, Boston, and Tampa.



Sens pick will be in the lottery next year. It's just a question of whether it's 11-15 with very little realistic chance at Top 3. 6-10 with a decent chance at being in the Top 3 and guaranteed Top 10. Or 1-5 with a very high probability of remaining a Top 5 pick.

It’s really too early to say something like this. If the Sens retain Karlsson without having to lose another piece (or pieces more likely) off their team they are far from guaranteed to miss the playoffs. For this to happen they need new ownership though. If they magically could keep their team in tact I could see them in the playoffs, it’s certainly not a guarantee they would miss anyways and anyone who thinks it is is plain ignorant of the new nhl.

The Avs just had the worst season of any non expansion team ever and made the playoffs the next year, Vegas is currently in the Stanley Cup Finals. Who had the Devils in the playoffs? Not even New Jersey fans would’ve hoped for that at the start of this year. It’s just too unpredictable now. Especially a team with Karlsson who can go God mode and will his team to the playoffs.

The Senators offence is fine, Duchene/Pageau/White/Brown is acceptable center depth, they have a #1 winger in Stone, some good wingers in Hoffman and Dzingel and lots of depth at the wings including some good prospects that could make the jump like Formenton and Batherson (as well as Tkachuk or Zadina possibly). For defence, Karlsson is obviously amazing and can run a top pairing almost singlehanded, and Ceci and Chabot can be serviceable top 4 dmen. The rest is not the greatest but Karlsson/Ceci/Chabot is not any worse than what the Avs, Leafs, or Devils had this year. Goaltending is risky but there’s few teams where this isn’t true, Anderson could be awful but there’s at least a chance he won’t be.

If ownership stays the same and Karlsson is traded though? Then yea they probably aren’t going to be good and even Sens fans would gladly admit that I think. But if the rumours are true and they do get new owners with deep pockets, I would be pretty worried as an Avs fan and so should you be. Morale around the organization would go 0-100 real quick and I think Karlsson is primed for a Norris year next year.

 

[boredmale]

I can't see Colorado giving that pick back for anything short of Karlsson(as part of a bigger package)

 

[Cousin Eddie]

If Karlsson is already traded I could see some type of conditional trade happen that allows Colorado to draft this year instead.

Ottawa can’t just let Colorado pick this year because that sends the message to the fans and players that they expect to be worse next year. But if they can get some small incentive out of allowing the Avs to pick this year it doesn’t look that way.

Colorado owns Ottawa’s 3rd in 2019 too. So perhaps we’ll see a trade that’s written like this: Colorado trades Ottawa’s 2019 3rd back to OTT for “future considerations”. Those future considerations are that Ottawa doesn’t defer their 1st this year and Colorado actually drafts 4th overall.

Ottawa can continue their tank job next year while also re-acquiring their 2019 3rd. Colorado drafts 4th OA this year.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

We just had our worst ever season in nearly 20 years, with everything going wrong...and the most we got out of it was 4th overall. Odds of 2019 being a higher pick than 4th is slim.

Avs fans just see an opportunity to make a horrible trade even more lopsided for them. It's not going to work.

 

[Jarey Curry]

We just had our worst ever season in nearly 20 years, with everything going wrong...and the most we got out of it was 4th overall. Odds of 2019 being a higher pick than 4th is slim.

Avs fans just see an opportunity to make a horrible trade even more lopsided for them. It's not going to work.

You had YOUR worst season this year but we had HISTORYS worst season a year back so lets not forget that. Oh and we only got 4th overall... However it was a blessing in disguise. Anyway Ottawa is making the right decision by keeping it this year. Next years pick could be something big BUT in reality its not going to be all that big so my guess is 11th OA, and then our own first pick from 8-17 OA

 

[Jarey Curry]

If Karlsson is already traded I could see some type of conditional trade happen that allows Colorado to draft this year instead.

Ottawa can’t just let Colorado pick this year because that sends the message to the fans and players that they expect to be worse next year. But if they can get some small incentive out of allowing the Avs to pick this year it doesn’t look that way.

Colorado owns Ottawa’s 3rd in 2019 too. So perhaps we’ll see a trade that’s written like this: Colorado trades Ottawa’s 2019 3rd back to OTT for “future considerations”. Those future considerations are that Ottawa doesn’t defer their 1st this year and Colorado actually drafts 4th overall.

Ottawa can continue their tank job next year while also re-acquiring their 2019 3rd. Colorado drafts 4th OA this year.

I have to imagine the price has to be way higher than that for Ottawa giving us the 4th oa and reclaiming next years top 10-15 pick back

 

[InTkachukWeTrust]

He's not wrong with his post. The 1st is a tough pill to swallow from a Sens perspective but the pick is gone. Only thing the Sens can do is move on and unfortunately for them, a very high pick would not only be good for the Avs but it would also serve to hold the current Sens front office more accountable for a **** trade.

That said, we have no clue where that pick ends up so we'll see.

Tbh it sucks we lost the pick but I don’t even really care. We have Duchene who is most definitely a 1C. Karlsson will be back to the norm. I really think the Sens bounce back next year.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Tbh it sucks we lost the pick but I don’t even really care. We have Duchene who is most definitely a 1C. Karlsson will be back to the norm. I really think the Sens bounce back next year.

Duchene is a 1C the same way that Sens 2019 1st is a guaranteed top 5 pick.

 

[InTkachukWeTrust]

Duchene is a 1C the same way that Sens 2019 1st is a guaranteed top 5 pick.

Haha but it’s not. Duchene is definitely a 1C. Can’t wait for him to have a couple season with a rebounding Sens.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Haha but it’s not. Duchene is definitely a 1C. Can’t wait for him to have a couple season with a rebounding Sens.

He really isn't. It's hilarious how quick Sens fans were to forget about those first 25 games Dutchy had on the Sens.


Avs fans have almost a decade worth of knowledge on the guy to know he isn't a #1C.


And that's just part of the reason the Sens pick will be very high again next summer.

 

[missionAvs]

Tbh it sucks we lost the pick but I don’t even really care. We have Duchene who is most definitely a 1C. Karlsson will be back to the norm. I really think the Sens bounce back next year.

I like Dutchy as a player and for a while he definitely seemed like he had what it takes to be our 1C. In the end though, he was never really able to put it together and often just folded under pressure. That said, I do hope he fills the 1C role for you guys. Great player with a great skill set.

 

[InTkachukWeTrust]

I like Dutchy as a player and for a while he definitely seemed like he had what it takes to be our 1C. In the end though, he was never really able to put it together and often just folded under pressure. That said, I do hope he fills the 1C role for you guys. Great player with a great skill set.

I guess we’ll have to wait and see how he does next season. I’m pretty optimistic though, he did develop chemistry with some of the players and finished strong imo.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

He's not wrong with his post. The 1st is a tough pill to swallow from a Sens perspective but the pick is gone. Only thing the Sens can do is move on and unfortunately for them, a very high pick would not only be good for the Avs but it would also serve to hold the current Sens front office more accountable for a **** trade.

That said, we have no clue where that pick ends up so we'll see.

lmao yeah that’s not happening.

 

[Miri]

That's statistically untrue.

Haha, yeah, technically, even if Ottawa ended dead last, it would still be good chance for their pick NOT to be Jack Hughes, in other words 1st OA.

 

[Hasbro]

I guess we’ll have to wait and see how he does next season. I’m pretty optimistic though, he did develop chemistry with some of the players and finished strong imo.

While the team didn't.

I think the Sens remain ensconced in the Metro Second division where the is the advantage of having some wins to rack up against Montreal Buffalo and Detroit. Over taking all but one of Florida and and the Atlantic wildcard contenders is a tall order. So assume the pick is #15 still a great prospect and frankly more return than we were expecting when the trade went down.

As it stands the Sens should hang onto the #4 and take Zadina or Kotka, as the chances of the 2019 pick being equal or lesser value are greater than it being Hughes, Turcotte or Kakko.

Meanwhile, while I'd love Kotka or Zadina, I don't think the cost to sway Dorion into giving up the #4 is worth giving up the gamble on next year's #1.

 

[tucker3434]

Haha but it’s not. Duchene is definitely a 1C. Can’t wait for him to have a couple season with a rebounding Sens.

He is for 20 games. Then he isnt for 10 games. Then he is again for 10.

Y’all had a taste of that last year, and at 27, I doubt it’s gonna change. He’s got the skill to be a 70 point player, year after year, but lacks the consistency.

 

[BonAppleTea]

If they keep EK that’s a big possibility. If they lose EK I see no way they finish in the playoffs.

Yea he will be fired up and ready to roll after last seasons not so brilliant time, especially if the contract situations works itself out. Even though he played a garbage game most of the season he ended up with a ton of points, I can't see him not having a massive bounce back next year.

But I think it would be very expensive for Ottawa regardless. Had they finished 6-8 spots higher this year maybe this would've been an opportunity but Sakic needs a big haul to give back that pick right now

 

[Patagonia]

Haha but it’s not. Duchene is definitely a 1C. Can’t wait for him to have a couple season with a rebounding Sens.

I’m higher on Duchene than many other AVs fans, but consider him being a borderline 1C. With the AVs, he played in the toughest division in hockey so there is no doubt on his abilities. Problem is with all the skills and talent, he lacks mental toughness to stay consistent.

However, this is his contract year and fully expect Duchene to light up the league. Sens have too many holes, his production might have little impact.

Therefore, Duchene performs well and lifts the team into playoff contention, would the cheap owner meet the higher salary demands or get a higher return at the TDL? Similarly, EK will be seeking a new deal and will be playing hard. Any early team success can be eliminated at the TDL if the Sens rebuild.

I expect the Sens to keep the 2018 pick and decide early in the season on 2019 if Duchene and EK resign. Stone is likely the player the AVs covet, salary saved can be used to resign their players.

 

[Brett44]

Haha, yeah, technically, even if Ottawa ended dead last, it would still be good chance for their pick NOT to be Jack Hughes, in other words 1st OA.

If you had follow u18 this year you should know 1 To 10 will be better next year. May be 1 To 20.Avs must jeep Ottawa pick