Value of: Ottawa getting their pick back (Colorado)?

[branch]

It depends on what you consider a good chance. Truth be told, given all the uncertainty with the Sens and a number of open questions it is tough to say how they'll do. We have no idea how their roster will look like and their chances of finishing in the basement greatly depend on that, most notably EK. If I had to hazard a guess I would say they are likely to finish in the lower 3rd of the table, but that doesn't mean they cannot finish higher.

Colorado finished dead last in the worst season in recent memory last year. Then made the playoffs this year. NHL is an unpredictable league. This ain't the NBA.

 

[Ivan13]

Even if they lose every game and finish dead last it's more likely than not the pick won't be Hughes. I'm not naive, I know the Sens might be in for a painful few years here, but the notion that the pick is guaranteed to be Hughes is idiotic and untrue.

I don't think that was what that poster suggested, nor did I.

 

[tucker3434]

Colorado finished dead last in the worst season in recent memory last year. Then made the playoffs this year. NHL is an unpredictable league. This ain't the NBA.

It can happen but it usually doesn’t. My guess is that neither Colorado nor Ottawa are playoff teams next year. Two sets of lottery balls, maybe we get lucky.

 

[justafan22]

It can happen but it usually doesn’t. My guess is that neither Colorado nor Ottawa are playoff teams next year. Two sets of lottery balls, maybe we get lucky.

They aren't a playoff team if they trade EK.

 

[treple13]

You mean a pick that might be as high as 1st overall.

Yeah it could be, but the odds of that are not great. Not very high that's for sure. I'd take a sure thing 4 OV over a pick that could be anywhere from 1-31 any day and I think so would every team in the league. Especially when if you take the 1-31, you are also encouraging the team with that pick to go for broke to avoid the embarassment of losing a top pick.

 

[milehigh11]

They aren't a playoff team if they trade EK.

And if EK is traded this offseason I dont see Duchene re-upping for another rebuild. One reason why he wanted out of Colorado. And Stone could easily just go to arbitration and not commit long term.

That is why the Avs will wait and see with the Ottawa pick 2019.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Colorado finished dead last in the worst season in recent memory last year. Then made the playoffs this year. NHL is an unpredictable league. This ain't the NBA.

If they keep EK that’s a big possibility. If they lose EK I see no way they finish in the playoffs.

 

[EdAVSfan]

Yeah it could be, but the odds of that are not great. Not very high that's for sure. I'd take a sure thing 4 OV over a pick that could be anywhere from 1-31 any day and I think so would every team in the league. Especially when if you take the 1-31, you are also encouraging the team with that pick to go for broke to avoid the embarassment of losing a top pick.

I’m not understanding why this keeps being brought up.

We’re not being offered the 4th this year.

The only proposal I saw was us adding our 16th to Ottawa’s first to get the 4th.
That’s an entirely different subject.

 

[branch]

If they keep EK that’s a big possibility. If they lose EK I see no way they finish in the playoffs.

I'm pretty tuned in with the situation and I think he will re-sign. Obviously just my opinion. But I can definitely acknowledge how people would think he's leaving.

 

[treple13]

I’m not understanding why this keeps being brought up.

We’re not being offered the 4th this year.

The only proposal I saw was us adding our 16th to Ottawa’s first to get the 4th.
That’s an entirely different subject.

There was an Avs poster who was saying they thought the value of next year's pick was of similar value to this year's 4th OV. My original response was made to that poster.

 

[Makar Goes Fast]

Yeah it could be, but the odds of that are not great. Not very high that's for sure. I'd take a sure thing 4 OV over a pick that could be anywhere from 1-31 any day and I think so would every team in the league. Especially when if you take the 1-31, you are also encouraging the team with that pick to go for broke to avoid the embarassment of losing a top pick.

except Ottawa isn't in a go for broke position. Colorado having this pick really handcuffs Ottawa. it was rumoured that EK was very close to being dealt at the deadline to vegas. Does Colorado having this first turn Ottawa into a buyer? even after they have said they are going to rebuild. Ottawa essentially needs to decide whether they risk losing duchene and karlsson for nothing at the end of the year, or they risk losing a high pick and get returns for them.

I think their pick this year is similar value to what colorado could get and with colorado's influx of young talent as it is, im all about the dice roll for a potential superstar with some luck next year.

 

[Hasbro]

Even if they lose every game and finish dead last it's more likely than not the pick won't be Hughes. I'm not naive, I know the Sens might be in for a painful few years here, but the notion that the pick is guaranteed to be Hughes is idiotic and untrue.

True, but Avs fans were laughing all the way to the bank with that pick when we were expecting the pick to be in the high teens. If it ends up as the #10 and a prospect likeDobson or Farabee for comparison we'll still be pigs in shit about the trade.

 

[Lonewolfe2015]

There was an Avs poster who was saying they thought the value of next year's pick was of similar value to this year's 4th OV. My original response was made to that poster.

Value is relative. You don't have to get the 4th overall pick next year for it to be equivalent to this year's 1st.

It's the gambler's value. Chance at better than 4th in a better draft or chance at worse than 4th, Avs are winning either way so why not roll the dice unless it's made worth their while. If Ottawa deferred the 4th this year they'd be happy. If Ottawa wanted something on top of their 1st next year to take the 1st this year, Avs might as well roll the dice.

 

[Freudian]

Next years OTT 1st round pick is probably worth around 7th-8th overall on average. Small chance it'll be 1st-3rd overall and small chance it will be in the 20s.

Chances are they will trade Hoffman. They might be forced to trade Karlsson. Craig Anderson is 37 years old and was very weak last year.

Since Avs are playing with house money with that pick, they'll just wait and see. If Ottawa pulls out a great 2018-19 season, good on them. If not, good for Avs.

 

[justafan22]

True, but Avs fans were laughing all the way to the bank with that pick when we were expecting the pick to be in the high teens. If it ends up as the #10 and a prospect likeDobson or Farabee for comparison we'll still be pigs in **** about the trade.

There's a decent chance it's the new Kessel trade.

 

[treple13]

Value is relative. You don't have to get the 4th overall pick next year for it to be equivalent to this year's 1st.

It's the gambler's value. Chance at better than 4th in a better draft or chance at worse than 4th, Avs are winning either way so why not roll the dice unless it's made worth their while. If Ottawa deferred the 4th this year they'd be happy. If Ottawa wanted something on top of their 1st next year to take the 1st this year, Avs might as well roll the dice.

Gambler's value doesn't make sense in this instance when the chance at the pick being worse is significantly higher than the chance it will be better. People make this mistake all the time when playing with "house money". Sometimes is pays off, but more often it does not.

Let's put it this way. Someone says you can have $500K. This is guaranteed. Or you can wait and see. The amount could have a small chance at ending up at a million, but is much more likely to end up around $100K-200K and it's equally likely that the amount ends up at like $50K as it is a million. What would you do?

I don't think it would take a lot of mathematical ability to prove statistically that this year's first is better than next years (and likely by quite a bit).

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

It can happen but it usually doesn’t. My guess is that neither Colorado nor Ottawa are playoff teams next year. Two sets of lottery balls, maybe we get lucky.

This. The Avs squeaked into the playoffs this year by winning the last game of the season. They definitely aren't a sure thing to make the playoffs next season, and neither are the Sens. Assuming either team is a sure thing is folly.

And, even if our two lottery tickets don't end up winning the jackpot, we could still end up with 2 really good young hockey players. Like Risto/Zadorov, or Keller/Chychrun, or Provorov/Konecny.

 

[darnok]

If they keep EK that’s a big possibility. If they lose EK I see no way they finish in the playoffs.

They may trade him but doubt they just lose him. Trading him could make them better. Colorado was better after trading Duchen even though he was by far the best player in the trade.

 

[The Abusement Park]

They may trade him but doubt they just lose him. Trading him could make them better. Colorado was better after trading Duchen even though he was by far the best player in the trade.

But there’s also a huge difference between Duchene who’s an alright top line center(sometimes) and Karlsson who’s a near generational talent. It’s exponentially easier to replace someone like Duchene than Karlsson.

Also if Karlsson leaves who on the senators is capable of putting up a hart level season? Definitely not Duchene. Stones an awesome player, but not a hart level guy. Chabot? Nope. Hoffman? Nope. The Avs got lucky Mackinnon had the season he had and is basically the only reason(little hyperbolic but still) we made the playoffs and improved as much as we did. If you lose Karlsson you loose the only player capable of playing at a level that high. I mean you will get some good pieces in an EK trade there’s no denying that, but if PD is dumb enough to attach Ryan to EK the return will not be great.

 

[cgf]

Help us get Drae for Timmins+ & I'm cool with giving that pick back to the Sens ;-)

 

[Hmmm]

Even if the Sens have a god awful season and end up last like we did they can quite easily have a bad lottery experience like we did, I would take this years pick if they offered it to me. Also stone would be nice

 

[Hasbro]

They may trade him but doubt they just lose him. Trading him could make them better. Colorado was better after trading Duchen even though he was by far the best player in the trade.

If they are tying Bobby Ryan to his deal, that would blunt the return and its effect on the roster.

 

[Hasbro]

There's a decent chance it's the new Kessel trade.

Mini Lindros

 

[Hasbro]

Next years OTT 1st round pick is probably worth around 7th-8th overall on average. Small chance it'll be 1st-3rd overall and small chance it will be in the 20s.

So for comparison's sake. Last year's 7th and 8th were Lias Anderson and Casey Mittlestadt. 1,2 and 3 were Hirsher, Patrick, Heiskanen 20 was Robert Thomas. Shane Bowers was the actual 27th pick.

So fill in the blank with any of those prospects and how does the deal look

Turris
__________
Bowers
Hammond
3rd

or

Girard
Kamenev
2nd
________
Bowers
Hammond
3rd

 

[Patagonia]

They may trade him but doubt they just lose him. Trading him could make them better. Colorado was better after trading Duchen even though he was by far the best player in the trade.

This assumption is based on similar circumstances on prospects and roster players waiting to bust out.

Sens cannot improve through subtracting their core players.