Ottawa - Edmonton - Islanders Draft Discussion

[R S]

I agree.

I think it's funny how the RNH lovers are saying the size is a weakness for Lando. If anything, the size is a weakness for RNH. He's small and if he can't do more than all those PP assists in junior level then why should he be better in NHL? In PP RNH get more space. That's why he do those points. At even strength he don't get space.That's his weakness.

Some people should worry about RNH size instead.

Facepalm.

Learn to speak English and get back to me.

EDIT: Added the piece below.

It's funny that you say he's "small". Other people can rag on RNH for not producing as much at even strength, and that's fine. People can pick apart his game. They have valid opinions. But RNH isn't an undersized player. He is bigger than average and gaining weight as the year goes along. His size won't be an issue at the NHL level because he is so smart and so elusive.

And for the record, don't pigeon-hole RNH "lovers" by saying we all rag on Landeskog's size. I've never ever said that, ever. And I love both players and truly hope the Avs get one of them in June.

 

[Dosing]

Facepalm.

Learn to speak English and get back to me.

Argument of the century.

 

[rigger]

Chances are Ottawa is taking a center in either RNH or Couturier with the trade of Fisher and now Kelly.

You'd think it would have an impact, mind you if they trade Philips we would be saying the same thing, however Ottawa has a few good young dmen in their barn ready to take the next step. Couturier would be ideal to step in behind Spezza I would think and perhaps eventually challenge Spezza enough offensively to push him to try harder, something Fisher couldn't do.

Even better.

Here's hoping Larsson drops to 3 or 4!

I can't imagine that 1 time out of 100 the Oilers would pass on Larsson given their current situation. All that changes if Hemsky/Penner is dealt for Bogosian or someone comparable.

 

[PortlandWinterHawks]

Jamie Benn, David Booth and Joe Pavelski

 

[Wheatking]

I can't imagine that 1 time out of 100 the Oilers would pass on Larsson given their current situation. All that changes if Hemsky/Penner is dealt for Bogosian or someone comparable.

I don't think it changes much if Tambellini manages to steal Bogosian from the Thrashers. Should the Kings have passed on Doughty because they had Jack Johnson? Should the Blues have passed on Pietrangelo because they had Erik Johnson? They took the best player available. If Whitney is our #3 Dman 3-5 years from now, we probably have a very good group of defensemen.

I would prefer that the Oilers walk away from the 2011 draft with a #1 center. They're nearly impossible to acquire outside of the draft. However, if Larsson is the BPA then you have to take him.

 

[CSimpson18]

The most success the Oilers have had in the past 20 years came off the back of Chris Pronger.

I think Larsson makes the most sense.

Consider: Where did Pronger come from? He was a trade, 10 years removed from his draft. Prongers, Charas, Niedermayers, Gonchars get traded from time to time. Getzlaf, Crosby, Malkin, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Toews, Kane, etc do not.

Also, it's far more common for recently drafted centers to be the top player at their position on succesful teams than it is for recently drafted defensemen. If you're thinking Keith, he was drafted late so that's actually a point in my favor. If you're thinking Doughty, he's the exception that proves the rule.

 

[rigger]

I don't think it changes much if Tambellini manages to steal Bogosian from the Thrashers. Should the Kings have passed on Doughty because they had Jack Johnson? Should the Blues have passed on Pietrangelo because they had Erik Johnson? They took the best player available. If Whitney is our #3 Dman 3-5 years from now, we probably have a very good group of defensemen.

I would prefer that the Oilers walk away from the 2011 draft with a #1 center. They're nearly impossible to acquire outside of the draft. However, if Larsson is the BPA then you have to take him.

I agree with your entire post. I do, however, feel Larsson is the best player this year.

 

[Mathletic]

Jamie Benn, David Booth and Joe Pavelski

That's sort of the point. All power to you for identifying those guys but they fell in the draft. People in general will say they went on to develop later but I'd argue otherwise. Stats can help immensely into drafting wisely. You can always point out that one guy that stats won't help you with ... then again, it's not because a guy doesn't put up 100 points that you can't sort him out through stats ... but in the long run, a solid mathematical model will work wonders as far as I'm concerned.

 

[R S]

That's sort of the point. All power to you for identifying those guys but they fell in the draft. People in general will say they went on to develop later but I'd argue otherwise. Stats can help immensely into drafting wisely. You can always point out that one guy that stats won't help you with ... then again, it's not because a guy doesn't put up 100 points that you can't sort him out through stats ... but in the long run, a solid mathematical model will work wonders as far as I'm concerned.

But how does that account for a player growing and evolving....

 

[Pyke*]

Consider: Where did Pronger come from? He was a trade, 10 years removed from his draft. Prongers, Charas, Niedermayers, Gonchars get traded from time to time. Getzlaf, Crosby, Malkin, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Toews, Kane, etc do not.

Also, it's far more common for recently drafted centers to be the top player at their position on succesful teams than it is for recently drafted defensemen. If you're thinking Keith, he was drafted late so that's actually a point in my favor. If you're thinking Doughty, he's the exception that proves the rule.

I don't believe Niedermayer was ever traded.

Chara was, but he has not been traded since becoming an impact defenseman.

Also, your argument is problematic in that you use several YOUNG places (mostly under 30) in comparison to four players in their LATE thirties.

 

[Mathletic]

But how does that account for a player growing and evolving....

Few comments. Sometimes players are just underrated ... or overrated ... Obvious example would be Skinner based on the CSS rankings. They had him in the 2nd round of NA skaters. I doubt he improved that much during the summer. I rarely hear scouts say, well, we missed him, or we didn't do our job right. I often hear a million excuses before someone acknowledges he made a mistake.

Also, there are factors that make certain players more likely than others to grow or develop certain aspects of their game. Without going into my stuff I'll try giving some general pointers.

Say you either develop a +/- rating or just a straight up rating for modeling production of players. We'll use Max Pacioretty as an example. You rate his offensive game on the PP, ES, SH then his defensive game in the same situations. Knowing he'll attend Michigan with coach Berenson you know it's very likely that his offensive game will do just fine but unlikely to improve vastly on his defensive skills.

Will a model based on production alone help a player grow? Not likely. You could point out certain areas of a player's game to improve but still. Though it can be modeled, I just wouldn't have enough data to help a player grow directly. The only way I could help a player grow I guess would be to hire a solid coach.

I know it's evasive. English is my second language and I try not to go into my model, so, nothing too convincing here but anyways.

 

[Angelus*]

If a dman takes longer to develop isn't that an argument FOR the Oilers taking Larsson, as opposed to picking a dman next year that might not be as good as Larsson?

 

[Dosing]

If a dman takes longer to develop isn't that an argument FOR the Oilers taking Larsson, as opposed to picking a dman next year that might not be as good as Larsson?

No it's better to take the dmen at the end of a rebuild

 

[Gobo]

you named 3 centers in the last 20 years not picked in the 1st round

what about Backstrom, Toews, Stamkos, Staal, Yzerman, Lemieux etc? very high picks

point is, very few elite centers are picked past the 1st round

plain and simple

What about Hedman, Doughty, Erik/Jack Johnson, Alex Pieterangelo, Bogosian, Myers, Suter, Burns. All of them pretty high, lowest being Burns/Myers at 20/15 but all the rest were taken within the top 7. All of them are/are becoming #1 defenseman.

 

[SensFactor]

RNH is really overrated.

First of all, people in here give critique to Lando for his goalscoring. Even it's garbage goals it's goals. You should worry about RNH lack of goalscoring instead. Lando has 7 goals more than RNH in 18 games less. That's a huge difference. If Lando hasn' been injured then the difference should be even bigger. In what way has RNH better offensive than Lando? The most of RNH points are assists in PP. That's not that impressive. Some people say RNH makes his teammates better. I would rather say that about Lando. Look at Akeson's stats. He dropped in the scoring race when Lando was out. Now he's back in the top. Even Murphy seems to have dropped when Lando was out.

Lando is a great goascorer, the best one of the big 3, he has great defensive too. He hits, he make the opponent to take penalties. He fights.

Lando is great in all part of his game. All I hear about RNH is his offensive skills which I think are overrated. If the most points are assists in PP already now how will this translate to NHL then? Why I don't hear anything about the rest of RNH game? his skating, defensive, hits, fights, face offs? He as center should have better defensive than Lando as a wing.

Lando he the prospect I can see captain a Stanley cup winner in the future. I can't say the same for RNH.

Someone here Said OHL outscore the other leagues by far. What I know OHL is also the strongest league. If so it's ridiculous to bash Lando to not be in top 20 in the OHL scoring. If WHL is that weak in scoring then why RNH not dominate the scoring race? He shouldn't have any competition in the scoring race? RNH shouldn't do better in OHL than Lando.

You nailed it man. Lando is better than RNH in many aspects. As a Sens fan I think he also ready to step into the NHL right away compared to RNH. Couterier is also a very 'safe' pick since he has tremendous potential, and he can work on his foot speed.

 

[R S]

You nailed it man. Lando is better than RNH in many aspects. As a Sens fan I think he also ready to step into the NHL right away compared to RNH. Couterier is also a very 'safe' pick since he has tremendous potential, and he can work on his foot speed.

So, do you want the player that is the most NHL ready, or the player who might be the best player down the road?....

 

[iCanada]

You nailed it man. Lando is better than RNH in many aspects. As a Sens fan I think he also ready to step into the NHL right away compared to RNH. Couterier is also a very 'safe' pick since he has tremendous potential, and he can work on his foot speed.

Agreed. I really feel like Landeskog is the most... can't miss. He is a player that I feel will be highly sought after even if he "busts".

I think at worst he becomes Lucic light, a guy who goes around and hammers as many people as humanly possible then fights and grabs momentum while scoring 40 points a year. At best, I think the kid is the second coming of Jarome Iginla.

I mean, I am no scout, but having seen each kid play a good 10 games a piece (you need to take your mind off the Oilers sometimes...), Landeskog is the kid I look at and say "Hot damn, I really want him on my team..."

That being said, I havn't really seen Larsson too much, so I have no idea where he is in relation. Eh, at the end of the day I trust Stu MacGregor.

 

[Kid Canesten]

as a sens fan, in a perfect world, we'd grab landeskog, somehow trade up and hope strome/huberdeau/rask fall and pick one of them up and try and grab prince or st croix with another second. larsson is probably going to be great in this league, but i just think we solve our forward issues with this draft.

 

[SDig14]

You nailed it man. Lando is better than RNH in many aspects. As a Sens fan I think he also ready to step into the NHL right away compared to RNH. Couterier is also a very 'safe' pick since he has tremendous potential, and he can work on his foot speed.

They are completely different players so you cannot compare them all that well. Also, you don't draft a player because he can step in right away vs. needing another year in junior. You take the player you think will be the best in 5+ years and stick to your scouting analysis as to who is the BPA.

 

[Fourier]

That's sort of the point. All power to you for identifying those guys but they fell in the draft. People in general will say they went on to develop later but I'd argue otherwise. Stats can help immensely into drafting wisely. You can always point out that one guy that stats won't help you with ... then again, it's not because a guy doesn't put up 100 points that you can't sort him out through stats ... but in the long run, a solid mathematical model will work wonders as far as I'm concerned.

I am very skeptical that a mathematical model will help you much in making the type of decisions that most teams face. Such a model could be an ancillary tool but it would be far to coarse to really be a significant aid in making the final choice.

 

[YNWA14]

They are completely different players so you cannot compare them all that well. Also, you don't draft a player because he can step in right away vs. needing another year in junior. You take the player you think will be the best in 5+ years and stick to your scouting analysis as to who is the BPA.

Ok, Landeskog is better than RNH in every way except offensively, and even that isn't a lock for RNH to be better at because no one knows how his body will take the NHL level or how he'll handle better systems.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

Another thing...

Ottawa definitely needs the kid of its choice here. Murray says he's not in an all-out rebuild mode, but let's face it.... after Fisher and Kelly, there should be another move or 10 in the next few weeks and one has to think he'd LOVE to unload Kovalev and Gonchar. This draft will be his chance to do what Tallon did in last summer's draft (although I don't think the overall value is there).

The Oilers and Islanders however could look at things differently.

Both have several nice core pieces for what they're building, which both hope are long-term winners.

Could they not possibly seek a trade where they drop 5-12 spots in the draft AND get a viable young scorer back in return?

I'm sure arguments could be made that they'd be better off going this route.

 

[Mathletic]

I am very skeptical that a mathematical model will help you much in making the type of decisions that most teams face. Such a model could be an ancillary tool but it would be far to coarse to really be a significant aid in making the final choice.

why do you say that? it's hapening in other sports ... basketball, baseball and football ... Vancouver Canucks use analysts and are doing well. Also, professor Tingling from SFU told me ... even wrote it in an article ... that there's a team in the NHL that's ready to draft players solely based on stats. Like I said in a different thread, if I had to guess I'd say that team is the LA Kings. Only a guess but anyways.

 

[Fourier]

why do you say that? it's hapening in other sports ... basketball, baseball and football ... Vancouver Canucks use analysts and are doing well. Also, professor Tingling from SFU told me ... even wrote it in an article ... that there's a team in the NHL that's ready to draft players solely based on stats. Like I said in a different thread, if I had to guess I'd say that team is the LA Kings. Only a guess but anyways.

Baseball is a statiticians dream. They track every nuance of the indivdual content of the game. And for the most part a significant amount of what a player brings to the table can be isolated so that the data primarily reflects the individual.

Basketball, is somewhat similar to baseball in that much of the statistical information that is gathered can be attributed for the most part to the individual.

Football I am also skeptical about. While I can certainly see how you could get significant data on the performance of QB's, kickers and possibly running backs, I am not sur how a mathematical model would distinguish much between two prospective left guards. Basic stats can give you a rough idea of who seems to be the person to watch but I really doubt anyone would ever draft a linebacker based on some mathematical model.

Hockey, in my opinion is far to chaotic to try and make fine decisions based on a model alone. Moreover, the actions of the players are extremely intertwined. Of course basic stats like goals and assits, goals against and save percentage do significantly reflect an individuals accomplishments even if there is impact from the team in the numbers. However, most of the statistical analysis that has been applied to hockey tends to make far more sense in studying teams rather than individuals. There is far too large a variance and way too many outliers to go by a statistical model alone.

Of course one way to look at things, and this is a comment that Tingling himself made, is that given that the draft beyond the second round appears to be pretty much a random event, a statitical model could not hurt.

And of course, I am not saying that teams would not use an analyst. Given the dollars involved they should look for any edge they can get. But I am far from convinced that it would ever be an appropriate primary tool in decision making.

I will say this though, I am open to being wrong. Perhaps a second career awaits after I retire.

 

[YNWA14]

Just thought I'd mention that on the radio this morning Pierre McGuire seemed to imply that Ottawa would be better off taking Couturier or Landeskog as opposed to RNH. He said to look at each season as a whole, and cited the Canadian Junior camp as a note in favor of Couturier, as well as mentioning he thought that Landeskog was the best in the OHL before he got injured.

I think he was getting at people jumping on the RNH bandwagon and getting a head of themselves because of his recent hot streak, and talked about his struggles earlier in the season.