I assume you're defining a contender at the time he's traded, and not a post-hoc review of what happens in the playoffs. Are LA and SJ contenders? Because I'd say they are. But they could very well meet in the 1st round, and one team is going home. Ditto for Boston and Detroit.
Yes (in the re-sign with the team he's traded to scenario)
Do you think he's wholly unaware that if he made it to UFA that he'd have offers from good teams that most consider to be contenders? Or that he's sitting there thinking he has to re-sign with Buffalo right now because no "contenders" are even going to make him a competitive offer?
He's not stupid. His agent isn't stupid. He knows his game is valued by teams who'll be good. Yet he still wants to re-sign here right now. The idea that he's not going to return because he'll get offers from contenders, yet he'll re-sign here now despite knowing he'll get offers from contenders if he chooses to wait until July is ridiculous.
You are correct. He and his agent are not stupid. And they know that 16-20 million dollars in the hand has a greater value vs the risk assumed by the player waiting for UFA (Injury, changing market landscapes, etc)
My comment was in response to your "taste of the playoffs" theme that you were hammering before. I think plenty of contenders will make offers for Ott in UFA.
And you think the is a good chance Ott will choose to return to Buffalo over those offers (because of all the non hockey related aspects)... and that is what is ridiculous.
Where our paths diverge is that I know that he already knows that, yet he's willing to re-sign in Buffalo, anyways. I don't think the presence of contenders making him offers is going to have the sway that you do, because, again, I'm sure he's already taken that into account in deciding he'd like to be in Buffalo long-term.
As previously discussed, he's willing to take money now, verse the risk inherited by waiting. This is common.
Once he absorbs all that risk, and makes it to Free Agency, everything changes
I think you know this, but it doesn't fit with your narrative.
Which is why Ryane Clowe re-signed with the Rangers, right? Or Jagr with the Bruins?
Cap.
Did Ryan Clowe return to San Jose? He loved it there.
You seemingly want your presumption to be that he's going to be in the Conference Finals or better. There's no guarantee of that, even if he's traded to one of the better teams in the league--see LA/SJ example above.
My presumption is that he will be in the playoffs (if traded)
Classic. You have a billion presumptions built into your theory too.
-It's going to be a Cup contender, not simply a good team who may get bounced early. (Even though a "Cup contender" may get bounced in Round 1--see Bos/Det or LA/SJ examples.)
-That "Cup contender" is most definitely going to want re-sign him, regardless of contract demands and available cap space.
-If the acquiring Cup contender doesn't want him, some other nebulous "contender" will offer him a deal more attractive or lucrative than what Buffalo could provide him.
And on and on and on.
They are potential outcomes, and only ONE of them would need to come true for it to significantly alter Ott's desire to return.
Maybe, maybe not. Four or five years of Ott at $4m-$5m doesn't exactly have me giddy. I think I'd prefer the 7 years of team control over a youngster, or the ability to flip that pick in a bigger trade for a young NHL player.
What do we have a **** load of? Youngsters with plenty of team control and assets to use in trade.
What do we have next to none of? Veterans who can lead by example.
But the best option is trading him, getting that mid- to late-1st rounder, and possibly re-signing him in the offseason.
And it isn't unrealistic.
The nest option is re-signing him, the value he brings is a dire need.
The idea that he would re-sign after being traded is somewhere between: very unlikely-unrealistic-pipedream-fantasy land
