News Article: Ott in limbo

[SundherDome]

3 years 16 million
8 million
5 million
3 million

He gets the financial stability he wants and has a shot at maybe one more good contract.

I like the idea of trading him and resigning him. Does the above contract lure him in.?

 

[Moskau]

How many guys have been traded and re-signed since the first lockout?

Iginla didn't even re-sign with Calgary.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

Paying over 5.3 a season for Steve Ott is ludicrous. He is not even close to being a first line player but he would be paid like one. If we gave him money like that, it would be our version of Boston signing Martin Lapointe for 5 mil a season long term. At least when Lapointe signed that deal he was only 28 years old and was coming off a 27 goal, 57 point season, and had scored 15+ goals 5 times in a row at the time of the deal. Ott has never scored more then 22 goals or 46 points in a season. He also has only scored more then 13 goals in a season two times in his whole career and none since 2009-2010.

Simply put, Ott isn't worth anywhere near 5.3 mil. The most I would offer him is 3 years, 12 million and I'd be hesitant for that. The guy turns 32 before next season and players like him don't really last that long. Ott averages 12 goals and 32 points a season. Yeah he is great at faceoffs, a proven leader who is extremely physical and a top notch PKer and 2 way player but you do not pay those type of players 5+ a season. His career gpg and ppg is just a tad better then Paul Gaustads, and in terms of all the qualities that Ott possesses so does Gaustad (faceoff ability, physicality, PK and defensive play).. Would you pay Goose 5.3 a season? I didn't think so. Trade Ott for a 1st at the deadline and if he wants to come back in the off season, then offer him 3.75 - 4 mil a year. If he wants more money he can go elsewhere he isn't irreplaceable. I would rather concentrate on re-signing Moulson then Ott, and preferably get Moulson to sign for 5 or less.

How many guys have been traded and re-signed since the first lockout?

Iginla didn't even re-sign with Calgary.

Keith and Doug Weight both with the Blues.Tkachuk even brought back a 1st at the age of 35.Actually would have been 2 1sts for Tkachuk as a 2nd rounder was conditional if Tkachuk re-signed with the Thrashers. That is just one part of the reason why the Atlanta Thrashers are no more... A 1st and conditional 2nd that could turn into a 1st.... All for a 35 year old declining player.

 

[internet toughguy]

How many guys have been traded and re-signed since the first lockout?

Iginla didn't even re-sign with Calgary.

i feel like joe corvo has done it at least once.

 

[dotcommunism]

Keith and Doug Weight both with the Blues.

I'm pretty sure Tkachuk technically had his UFA rights traded back to St. Louis.

Mark Recchi was traded from Pittsburgh to Carolina for their cup run then re-signed with Pittsburgh that off season.

 

[cardiffgiant]

Dr. Mark Recchi's situation is a little different. Going to a cup contender, then back to a team that was on an upswing. Leaving for go to a team that's having some post season success, then come back to a team in the early stages of a rebuild is another story.

 

[joshjull]

Dr. Mark Recchi's situation is a little different. Going to a cup contender, then back to a team that was on an upswing. Leaving for go to a team that's having some post season success, then come back to a team in the early stages of a rebuild is another story.

Well done

 

[Zip15]

Unrealistic choice

Between the 2 realistic choices, I'd prefer to re-sign him

It's not unrealistic. Just because it doesn't happen a ton, doesn't mean that they can't bring him back. I would guess a great majority of the time that impending UFAs are traded it's because the team doesn't want the player back, knows it cannot afford the player, or knows the player won't re-sign there--and has to get something for the guy. I don't think any of those variables exist here. This is little more than asset management. Ott's an intelligent guy, and I think he'd understand that better than most. I also think Ott values being where he's comfortable and where he can be a leader, two things he has in Buffalo.

If Buffalo made him a competitive offer in UFA, I think they'd have as good a chance as any team to sign him this summer.

 

[Jame]

I don't think the "trade and then re-sign" is a realistic option. I mean, sure it's a possibility... but it's fairly minute.

I know Ott wants to be here... I believe him.... I want to re-sign him

But... if he's traded to a contender, lets look at the reality

1. The contender has given up a 1st round pick (assumption). How many times has a contender traded a top pick and then re-signed that player... it's certainly more common than said player leaving to return to the team that traded him.
- Jaybo, Handzus, Leopold, and Regehr were traded for at the deadline by contenders and re-signed... Gaustad is another example... the list goes on.

2. Ott's opinion of Buffalo will change quickly if he's on a cup run. If the opportunity to re-sign with a contender is available, it's silly to think he'd turn it down because he loves Buffalo.

3. Even if he doesn't go on a long cup run, and the team he's traded to doesn't offer him a contract... he'll be an UFA and will have other suitors... it's hard to expect his desire to return to remain what it is today, once he's traded and hits UFA.

Could we trade Ott at the deadline, and cross our fingers that the contender won't offer him a new contract, and no other contenders would offer him a contract, and that after a playoff run his desire to return to a rebuilding effort will remain what it is today... sure, we can cross our fingers for that... but it's pretty darn unrealistic.

re-sign Ott

 

[Zip15]

That contributes a lot to the conversation. It's so ridiculous to you that a guy who frequently praises the owner and fanbase and talks about how much he loves the city and is currently playing with his BFF would never consider returning here just because he's traded?

Jame is anchoring again.

 

[Jame]

It's not unrealistic. Just because it doesn't happen a ton, doesn't mean that they can't bring him back. I would guess a great majority of the time that impending UFAs are traded it's because the team doesn't want the player back, knows it cannot afford the player, or knows the player won't re-sign there--and has to get something for the guy. I don't think any of those variables exist here. This is little more than asset management. Ott's an intelligent guy, and I think he'd understand that better than most. I also think Ott values being where he's comfortable and where he can be a leader, two things he has in Buffalo.

If Buffalo made him a competitive offer in UFA, I think they'd have as good a chance as any team to sign him this summer.

What are the odds then?

Buffalo trades Ott at the deadline...

- The team that trades for him has to NOT offer him a deal before UFA
- Ott's desires have to be relatively unchanged by his experience post Buffalo
- Ott has to not be moved by any other offers to join a contender as an UFA
- Ott has to CHOOSE to spend a chunk of the rest of his career on a rebuilding team when other options are available (unlike re-signing in season, when those other options are relatively unknown)

I think it's pretty darn unrealistic... but it's a rosey best case scenario that's for sure

 

[Crazy Tasty]

I don't think the "trade and then re-sign" is a realistic option. I mean, sure it's a possibility... but it's fairly minute.

I know Ott wants to be here... I believe him.... I want to re-sign him

But... if he's traded to a contender, lets look at the reality

1. The contender has given up a 1st round pick (assumption). How many times has a contender traded a top pick and then re-signed that player... it's certainly more common than said player leaving to return to the team that traded him.
- Jaybo, Handzus, Leopold, and Regehr were traded for at the deadline by contenders and re-signed... Gaustad is another example... the list goes on.

2. Ott's opinion of Buffalo will change quickly if he's on a cup run. If the opportunity to re-sign with a contender is available, it's silly to think he'd turn it down because he loves Buffalo.

3. Even if he doesn't go on a long cup run, and the team he's traded to doesn't offer him a contract... he'll be an UFA and will have other suitors... it's hard to expect his desire to return to remain what it is today, once he's traded and hits UFA.

Could we trade Ott at the deadline, and cross our fingers that the contender won't offer him a new contract, and no other contenders would offer him a contract, and that after a playoff run his desire to return to a rebuilding effort will remain what it is today... sure, we can cross our fingers for that... but it's pretty darn unrealistic.

re-sign Ott

What if the offer is a 2015 first rounder?

 

[Jame]

What if the offer is a 2015 first rounder?

Any team making that offer is a bonafide contender... and the likelihood of that pick being a lottery pick is very small...

 

[Eram]

To me, resigning seems like much more of a possibility because he's the captain. Money he'll get something decent wherever he goes, but he might like the spotlight here. His choices would be:
- Sign on an average team like WPG for lots of cash
- Sign for a contender and just be another body prone to getting scratched
- Resign in BUF for similar money, be the captain, liked by fans, and get top minutes

Depends on what's important to him, but outside of cup chances he's in the best possible situation for him right now.

 

[Jame]

That contributes a lot to the conversation. It's so ridiculous to you that a guy who frequently praises the owner and fanbase and talks about how much he loves the city and is currently playing with his BFF would never consider returning here just because he's traded?

Jame is anchoring again.

that's a total nonsense reduction to the lowest denominator.

The amount of dismissal of REAL factors like... you know, possibly winning a cup... while giving massive weight to "liking the owner a lot" and "playing with his BFF"... is astounding.

You've anchored... onto an unrealistic position

Tell me what you would do?

You're in your 30s
You've had very few if any shots at a cup
You love where you are but you understand the long term outlook of the franchise
You get traded to a contender and get a taste of the possibility
Said contender offers you a 4 yr deal

You turn it down because you love the owner and your pal plays there?

come on man...

The only way Ott comes back after being traded, is if there is if he doesn't have a competitive offer from a team he views as close to a cup

 

[Crazy Tasty]

Any team making that offer is a bonafide contender... and the likelihood of that pick being a lottery pick is very small...

I'd have to think long and hard about a bubble team's 2015 1st.

I'm in the boat of re-signing him, at some point we need to stop trading or letting Captains walk.

 

[Jame]

To me, resigning seems like much more of a possibility because he's the captain. Money he'll get something decent wherever he goes, but he might like the spotlight here. His choices would be:
- Sign on an average team like WPG for lots of cash
- Sign for a contender and just be another body prone to getting scratched
- Resign in BUF for similar money, be the captain, liked by fans, and get top minutes

Depends on what's important to him, but outside of cup chances he's in the best possible situation for him right now.

- You mean, sign on a contender, and be a key cog in their bottom six, with an identified role that fits his skill set... and spend the entirety of the contract having a legitimate shot at winning a cup every year...

 

[Eram]

Any team making that offer is a bonafide contender... and the likelihood of that pick being a lottery pick is very small...

True, but you know never know when a team can become completely unglued and terrible, like Philly in 06-07 (or this year to a lesser extent) or Islanders currently. Or an injury, like Loungo or Mike Smith.

 

[Jame]

I want to re-sign Ott
I would NOT trade him for a 2014 1st, or any collection of 2014 picks

If the offer was for a 2015 1st... I'd consider it, based on the depth of that draft, and the potential for that pick to be Cmac. As well as that pick possibly being ammo to target a different top 5 player via trade if we did not win the lottery (having 2-3 firsts in 2015 would be great).

I doubt that scenario presents itself (2015 1st)... only Snow is dumb enough to potentially put that pick in play.... although, there's always Holmgren

 

[Eram]

- You mean, sign on a contender, and be a key cog in their bottom six, with an identified role that fits his skill set... and spend the entirety of the contract having a legitimate shot at winning a cup every year...

Maybe, but there's still 29 teams each year that don't win. I could see VAN or TBL being a great fit for him, but I would really only put their chances at 1/10 combined? We don't know what he values, but if he likes the spotlight and being important then he's still just a mid level player there.

 

[Crazy Tasty]

I want to re-sign Ott
I would NOT trade him for a 2014 1st, or any collection of 2014 picks

If the offer was for a 2015 1st... I'd consider it, based on the depth of that draft, and the potential for that pick to be Cmac. As well as that pick possibly being ammo to target a different top 5 player via trade if we did not win the lottery (having 2-3 firsts in 2015 would be great).

I doubt that scenario presents itself (2015 1st)... only Snow is dumb enough to potentially put that pick in play.... although, there's always Holmgren

Philly was exactly the team I was thinking of.

 

[Zip15]

that's a total nonsense reduction to the lowest denominator.

The amount of dismissal of REAL factors like... you know, possibly winning a cup... while giving massive weight to "liking the owner a lot" and "playing with his BFF"... is astounding.

So he's going to (knowingly) forego that opportunity for a great majority of his next contract with Buffalo if he re-signs, but if he's traded to a playoff team--and it may not even be a Cup contender--his eyes are going to be opened to the wonder of the playoffs, and he's simply not going to consider returning to Buffalo? Ergo, we must keep him sheltered from that great world out there? Please. Is he five years old?

That's about the most unrealistic statement in this entire thread.

You've anchored... onto an unrealistic position

Tell me what you would do?

You're in your 30s
You've had very few if any shots at a cup
You love where you are but you understand the long term outlook of the franchise
You get traded to a contender and get a taste of the possibility
Said contender offers you a 4 yr deal

Then why is he willing to re-sign here in the first place?! You'd clearly concede he's willing to re-sign here even though those first three variables exist under any scenario. You're overvaluing this concept of a "taste of the playoffs." What if he gets traded to a team that gets bounced in six in Round 1? Is that too much of a taste of the playoffs and he'll never return to Buffalo based on that?

You turn it down because you love the owner and your pal plays there?

come on man...

Speaking of lowest common denominator comments...

You and I both know it's the general comfort level he has in Buffalo, and part of that is playing for Pegula, living in Buffalo, playing with a group of a guys he likes, liking the fanbase, the ability to be a leader and mentor young guys, etc., that make re-signing here attractive.

The only way Ott comes back after being traded, is if there is if he doesn't have a competitive offer from a team he views as close to a cup

Maybe, maybe not. And that's a risk I'm willing to take. He could do those things by not being traded and not re-signing before July 5. But he wants to be in Buffalo, and I don't think playing in another city and (maybe) playing in the playoffs or (maybe) going on a bit of a run is going to change his affinity for the organization, city, fanbase, etc.

 

[Jame]

So he's going to (knowingly) forego that opportunity for a great majority of his next contract with Buffalo if he re-signs, but if he's traded to a playoff team--and it may not even be a Cup contender--his eyes are going to be opened to the wonder of the playoffs, and he's simply not going to consider returning to Buffalo? Ergo, we must keep him sheltered from that great world out there? Please. Is he five years old?

That's about the most unrealistic statement in this entire thread.

I clearly set a parameter of being traded to a contender...


I then also said, if he UFA, and had an offer FROM A CONTENDER

Then why is he willing to re-sign here in the first place?! You'd clearly concede he's willing to re-sign here even though those first three variables exist under any scenario. You're overvaluing this concept of a "taste of the playoffs." What if he gets traded to a team that gets bounced in six in Round 1? Is that too much of a taste of the playoffs and he'll never return to Buffalo based on that?

sure... that's what will happen... he'll get traded to a team that gets bounced... and then no other contender will come with an offer in free agency... stick with the unrealistic

Speaking of lowest common denominator comments...

You reduced my position to, "just because he was traded"...
I repeated your position that he loves the owner and has a BFF here...

not even remotely similar... nice try

You and I both know it's the general comfort level he has in Buffalo, and part of that is playing for Pegula, living in Buffalo, playing with a group of a guys he likes, liking the fanbase, the ability to be a leader and mentor young guys, etc., that make re-signing here attractive.

I know playing for a Cup trumps all those things

Look, if everything falls just the way you HOPE, then yes... there's a chance he'd re-sign.

First, he gets traded to a team that doesn't have any of the niceties he has in Buffalo

Second, that team gets bounced quickly in the playoffs OR doesn't offer him an extension

Third, No team he legitimately views as an immediate cup contender over the course of a contract offer... actually offers him a contract.

Fourth, No high cap space team offers him a ridiculously large and long term contract that Buffalo doesn't want to touch

If all of those things take place... then your scenario is plausible...


What are the odds that NONE of those things take place?

Maybe, maybe not. And that's a risk I'm willing to take. He could do those things by not being traded and not re-signing before July 5. But he wants to be in Buffalo, and I don't think playing in another city and (maybe) playing in the playoffs or (maybe) going on a bit of a run is going to change his affinity for the organization, city, fanbase, etc.

If the Sabres offer Ott an extension, and he doesn't want to re-sign... then Im all for trading him. NOTE: If the Sabres offer him an extension, and he doesn't re-sign, your entire premise goes down the toilet.

It's not about risk... it's about value. If Ott IS willing to re-sign before the deadline, the value he provides the franchise is greater, then the late 1st rounder at best that he'd return in trade.

 

[Jame]

Zip,

Just to clarify, If Buffalo were to offer Ott an extension before the deadline, you believe he would absolutely sign it, correct?

 

[Zip15]

I clearly set a parameter of being traded to a contender...

I assume you're defining a contender at the time he's traded, and not a post-hoc review of what happens in the playoffs. Are LA and SJ contenders? Because I'd say they are. But they could very well meet in the 1st round, and one team is going home. Ditto for Boston and Detroit.

I then also said, if he UFA, and had an offer FROM A CONTENDER

Do you think he's wholly unaware that if he made it to UFA that he'd have offers from good teams that most consider to be contenders? Or that he's sitting there thinking he has to re-sign with Buffalo right now because no "contenders" are even going to make him a competitive offer?

He's not stupid. His agent isn't stupid. He knows his game is valued by teams who'll be good. Yet he still wants to re-sign here right now. The idea that he's not going to return because he'll get offers from contenders, yet he'll re-sign here now despite knowing he'll get offers from contenders if he chooses to wait until July is ridiculous.

sure... that's what will happen... he'll get traded to a team that gets bounced... and then no other contender will come with an offer in free agency... stick with the unrealistic

My comment was in response to your "taste of the playoffs" theme that you were hammering before. I think plenty of contenders will make offers for Ott in UFA.

Where our paths diverge is that I know that he already knows that, yet he's willing to re-sign in Buffalo, anyways. I don't think the presence of contenders making him offers is going to have the sway that you do, because, again, I'm sure he's already taken that into account in deciding he'd like to be in Buffalo long-term.

I know playing for a Cup trumps all those things

Which is why Ryane Clowe re-signed with the Rangers, right? Or Jagr with the Bruins?

You seemingly want your presumption to be that he's going to be in the Conference Finals or better. There's no guarantee of that, even if he's traded to one of the better teams in the league--see LA/SJ example above.

Look, if everything falls just the way you HOPE, then yes... there's a chance he'd re-sign.

First, he gets traded to a team that doesn't have any of the niceties he has in Buffalo

Second, that team gets bounced quickly in the playoffs OR doesn't offer him an extension

Third, No team he legitimately views as an immediate cup contender over the course of a contract offer... actually offers him a contract.

Fourth, No high cap space team offers him a ridiculously large and long term contract that Buffalo doesn't want to touch

If all of those things take place... then your scenario is plausible...

Classic. You have a billion presumptions built into your theory too.

-It's going to be a Cup contender, not simply a good team who may get bounced early. (Even though a "Cup contender" may get bounced in Round 1--see Bos/Det or LA/SJ examples.)

-That "Cup contender" is most definitely going to want re-sign him, regardless of contract demands and available cap space.

-If the acquiring Cup contender doesn't want him, some other nebulous "contender" will offer him a deal more attractive or lucrative than what Buffalo could provide him.

And on and on and on.

If the Sabres offer Ott an extension, and he doesn't want to re-sign... then Im all for trading him. NOTE: If the Sabres offer him an extension, and he doesn't re-sign, your entire premise goes down the toilet.

It's not about risk... it's about value. If Ott IS willing to re-sign before the deadline, the value he provides the franchise is greater, then the late 1st rounder at best that he'd return in trade.

Maybe, maybe not. Four or five years of Ott at $4m-$5m doesn't exactly have me giddy. I think I'd prefer the 7 years of team control over a youngster, or the ability to flip that pick in a bigger trade for a young NHL player.

But the best option is trading him, getting that mid- to late-1st rounder, and possibly re-signing him in the offseason.

And it isn't unrealistic.