Confirmed with Link: Orlov signs 1 year 2.57 mil

[RandyHolt]

If you think Orlov's game will be hurt by playing to his natural game more, so be it.

Do us a favor, cue up the Orlov RS open ice highlight tube from last year

Almost no one hit on our team last year. We were as soft as butter. Willy stopped, Ovi stopped, Orpik stopped himself. The hit stat is a joke anyways. Watch the games. Oshie was the only noteworthy consistent hitter.

Outside of our PP and Holtby, was there anything at all our opponents feared or had to game plan for?

Suddenly, that Wilson contract didn't hamstrung BMac quite as much as the card you played.

 

[twabby]

If you think Orlov's game will be hurt by playing to his natural game more, so be it.

Do us a favor, cue up the Orlov RS open ice highlight tube from last year

Almost no one hit on our team last year. We were as soft as butter. Willy stopped, Ovi stopped, Orpik stopped himself. The hit stat is a joke anyways. Watch the games. Oshie was the only noteworthy consistent hitter.

Outside of our PP and Holtby, was there anything at all our opponents feared or had to game plan for?

Suddenly, that Wilson contract didn't hamstrung BMac quite as much as the card you played.

His natural game seems to be a puck-moving, offensive defenseman. Don't see how hitting helps him improve at all. I'd rather he focus on improving things that need improving and actually have a tangible impact on games rather than focusing on hits, which have at best a negligible impact on winning.

This season the Capitals are being forced to go with an inexperienced AHL option (likely Sanford or Vrana) and Brett Connolly/Stan Galiev rather than possibly getting someone like PA Parenteau or Jiri Hudler as a cheap UFA in part due to Wilson's overpay. Maybe that was his intention all along to ignore UFAs, but the fact is the Capitals are likely going to have next to zero cap flexibility this season. Also while Orlov and his agent were kind enough to take less money this season, the Capitals are going to have some tough decisions to make next season with UFAs so every little overpay is impactful. Obviously I expect Orpik to be gone by next offseason which should help, but you never know how things will shake out and a needless $500k overpay on Wilson could present problems especially if the cap is stagnant again next season.

 

[RandyHolt]

His natural game seems to be a puck-moving, offensive defenseman. Don't see how hitting helps him....

His natural game is supported in the stats you posted. He hits.

How does hitting help anyone? It's simple. A guy flat on his butt does not score. Ovi aside.

I notice Orpik atop of your list, still commanding a hefty salary for largely doing just that. Hitting helped Orpik, why not Orlov?

Physical play has been a goal on our defense every year. Erskine, our deadline adds.... the problem is, the core doesn't hit. They are too easy to play against and Holts largely masks the issue.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

If I had to rank the problems with Orlov's game, I'd put hitting near the bottom. On a hits per/60 basis here are the Capitals leaders:

1. Orpik
2. Orlov
3. Niskanen
4. Alzner
5. Chorney
6. Schmidt
7. Carlson

And anecdotally Orlov seems to throw some of the biggest open ice hits, especially hip-checks. I'd much rather he focus on positioning, awareness, and decision-making with and without the puck than hitting. Besides, if you're hitting it means you don't have the puck.

Agree with this. Orlov can lay the boom. He needs to reduce his pizzas/60 first and foremost.

 

[twabby]

His natural game is supported in the stats you posted. He hits.

How does hitting help anyone? It's simple. A guy flat on his butt does not score. Ovi aside.

I notice Orpik atop of your list, still commanding a hefty salary for largely doing just that. Hitting helped Orpik, why not Orlov?

Physical play has been a goal on our defense every year. Erskine, our deadline adds.... the problem is, the core doesn't hit. They are too easy to play against and Holts largely masks the issue.

Your whole premise was that Orlov doesn't hit (statistically wrong), and now you are saying his natural game is to hit? I'm just not buying that hitting has any significant impact on his ability to be a good player in the defensive zone, especially since he already does hit and he's still not very good in the defensive zone. Also, Alzner and Niskanen are probably universally considered the two best defensive D the Capitals have, and they both hit at lower rates than Orlov and Orpik.

It's almost as if hitting is extremely overrated. It falls into the same sort of memory bias as turnovers. People remember turnovers and major gaffes (how many times has the word "pizza" been used around here because of that one turnover he had against Columbus?), but they tend to forget good outlet passes unless they result in a goal. Similarly, people will remember big hits because they make the highlight reel, but they tend to forget good stickwork on defensive plays, denying the blue line with a well timed pressure of the puck, good box-outs that prevent forwards from getting rebounds, etc.

Hitting helped Orpik get his contract, no doubt (see the last point about memory bias). But his hitting hasn't helped his woeful defensive play over the past 5 years. In fact, I've noticed several times Orpik has made ill-timed neutral zone pinches chasing a hit and creating odd-man rushes against, not to mention him chasing a late headshot to Olli Maatta which led to his suspension this postseason. Is anyone happy with his contract now?

If physical play (rather than smart play) is the goal of the defense, maybe they need to change the goal.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Wow again trying to overdramatize things to sell a point...."forced to go with inexperienced AHL option"....when reality says teams often bring up a young guy or two for the bottom 6 to cut their teeth.

For all we know Hudler or PAP weren't even considered by management.

Me, I like Orlov hitting. Combined with his offensive skill set, it's what makes him more dynamic and complete IMO. Effective hitting can be just that. Take that away and his lack of defensive zone awareness and ability are further highlighted IMO. I want him patrolling the blue line looking to lay the boom. The team needs that presence.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Why can't a player be physical AND smart? Oh wait, they can, but that doesn't help your narrative.


Please return to obsessing over Orpik.

 

[twabby]

Why can't a player be physical AND smart? Oh wait, they can, but that doesn't help your narrative.


Please return to obsessing over Orpik.

I never said Orlov needs to be less physical, I said his physicality is not a current problem with his game. Decision-making and defensive-zone awareness seem to be his biggest issues and cleaning those up will make him a more complete player, moreso than getting a few extra hits in.

Similarly, I bet people feel like Tom Wilson would become a more complete player if he were to focus on his offensive zone game rather than focusing on racking up more hits.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

No but you suggested that maybe the D was trying to be more physical rather than smart and we know that's bologna. It's both...and you know it.

Tom Wilson might be a more 'complete' player if he had some good natural offensive talent. Not sure that's buried there inside of him staying hidden because he's 'not focusing in it'.

Orlov sans hit physicality is simply (so far) a glaring D zone liability.

Looking at his game logs last year, you can see his hitting ramps up as the season goes on, I assume as he became more comfortable after a long term injury and absence.

I think it's simply a perception thing Randy has gotten wrong on the hitting. As his play became more ineffective late in the season, his hitting probably seemed less impactful.

 

[RandyHolt]

Hit stats unfortunately are a joke. I am forced to keep my own, mentally.

But people only remember bad gaffe's if it results in a goal. Something I dare think Orlov has been a victim to. It's impressive how short a pizza delivery memory becomes, after a save. Or, after a long night of drinking.

What is the age defensemen get it all sorted out?

My point - if Orlov will take 5 years to be sound defensively behind his goal line, I see little risk in asking to him try and be a bit more aggressive in not letting the puck get there, for this upcoming year.

Guys have forged out jobs from hitting, and hitting alone. Some may argue Tom Wilson is that guy today. The most notable in Caps fame, the original #32 - Lou!

Last I saw Orly play, he was a scratch candidate. Outside of some shallow promises of 2LD time, little has changed. Let's try and get some bang for his bucks before he walks, and try and win it all in this window.

 

[crazy8888]

I like Orlov and very happy that he is saying at least another year.

For all of those arguing whether the $ is too high or too low, chill out guys, come spring time it won't matter anyway. We are not 14th forward away from winning a cup. Nor are we another defenseman away from winning a cup.

After Pitts winning the cup last year i realized that whatever team you have on paper matters very little when it comes to the PO'S. I mean look at Pitts, rookie coach, rookie goalie, middle of the pact defense, not many good forwards on paper. But look what happened this spring. They didn't get lucky and ride a hot goalie. They either dominated or played up to the same level to every one of their opponents.
every guy on their team looked 5X better than what people thought of them. Remember Bryan Rust? Dude stepped up almost ever game. Did you know about Rust before this spring? I didn't. What about Schultz, remember that guy? How many people would want him on their team before last spring? Would you agree that he played just as good as most of our d if not better at times? What about 39 year old Cullen looking better out there than both of our "superstar" centers.

Im convinced that its its meant to be, it will happen. I told everyone midway through the Cpas series that not only was Pitts going to advance but they were also wining the cup. You can see it. Every year you can see one team have that extra something to their game. Non names step up. Pucks land on their sticks in front of empty nets....in OT!!!!!! Its just an extra bit of luck i guess, but most times thats enough.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

How much aggression is too much? A guy already known for hitting, and what, you want him smashing anything that crosses center ice? To what benefit to improving in his own end, where his game must advance this year quickly? More aggression means more chances for blown coverages and odd man breaks.

He was 7th in hits on the team last year...

Wilson 253
Ovechkin 225
Niskanen 157
Alzner 135
Oshie 134
Orpik 125
Orlov 121

I don't see his numbers going up significantly without his role on the team increasing, which means he has to at least play adequate DEFENSE in the 2nd/3rd pair. I think this year they preach a well rounded defensive game to Orlov rather than a more gung-ho physical one....

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I like Orlov and very happy that he is saying at least another year.

For all of those arguing whether the $ is too high or too low, chill out guys, come spring time it won't matter anyway. We are not 14th forward away from winning a cup. Nor are we another defenseman away from winning a cup.

After Pitts winning the cup last year i realized that whatever team you have on paper matters very little when it comes to the PO'S. I mean look at Pitts, rookie coach, rookie goalie, middle of the pact defense, not many good forwards on paper. But look what happened this spring. They didn't get lucky and ride a hot goalie. They either dominated or played up to the same level to every one of their opponents.
every guy on their team looked 5X better than what people thought of them. Remember Bryan Rust? Dude stepped up almost ever game. Did you know about Rust before this spring? I didn't. What about Schultz, remember that guy? How many people would want him on their team before last spring? Would you agree that he played just as good as most of our d if not better at times? What about 39 year old Cullen looking better out there than both of our "superstar" centers.

Im convinced that its its meant to be, it will happen. I told everyone midway through the Cpas series that not only was Pitts going to advance but they were also wining the cup. You can see it. Every year you can see one team have that extra something to their game. Non names step up. Pucks land on their sticks in front of empty nets....in OT!!!!!! Its just an extra bit of luck i guess, but most times thats enough.

Good stuff...

 

[RandyHolt]

... I think this year they preach a well rounded defensive game to Orlov rather than a more gung-ho physical one....

Good post and points.

I just don't have any faith that Reirden throwing more pepperoni slices at him, preaching the same thing as last year, is going to change anything significantly any time soon.

Let's face it, Orlov's play deteriorated last spring. My theory, entertain me dammit, try and play with a little assertiveness without the puck, and maybe he won't have that raw pizza doe in his hands as often.

Why wait until he is holding the pie?

 

[artilector]

Will be nice to see Orlov back for at least another year.
Regular season will be pointless (again) for making any kind of playoff predictions, it's mostly about enjoying individual performances, at least for me. In that sense, Orlov is fun to watch, whatever happens.
Contract is inexpensive, even if he doesn't take a step forward, not a bad deal for a depth guy of his level.
Of course, hoping his decision-making improves enough to be a stable future top-4 guy...

 

[Corby78]

Like the deal. If we get the same orlov we can walk and move on. If he steps up defensively it's a solid price. I was getting nervous he was gone and we would be barrel scrapping to fill a spot last minute.

 

[Brian23]

Until the expansion draft.

I dunno, I think will be fine. Ovi, Kuzya, Backstrom, Burakovsky, Carlson, Niskanen, Alzner, Orlov. My only worry is if the kids (Bowey and Vrana) aren't exempt. But the only person that leaves open that I'd be worried about is Wilson and as much as I like him, his points are easily replaced. They'd probably also be more likely to take Oshie and as much as I like him I think Burakovsky is obviously a more important piece.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I dunno, I think will be fine. Ovi, Kuzya, Backstrom, Burakovsky, Carlson, Niskanen, Alzner, Orlov. My only worry is if the kids (Bowey and Vrana) aren't exempt. But the only person that leaves open that I'd be worried about is Wilson and as much as I like him, his points are easily replaced. They'd probably also be more likely to take Oshie and as much as I like him I think Burakovsky is obviously a more important piece.

Orlov over Oshie and Eller? Or Johansson? I don't see it. Nor do I want too.

 

[Hivemind]

Oshie's protection very much depends on his contract status, IMO. I don't think they protect an unsigned Oshie, nor do I think Vegas would be particularly likely to select him if he's set on testing UFA waters.

 

[Brian23]

Orlov over Oshie and Eller? Or Johansson? I don't see it. Nor do I want too.

I figure they'd trade Mojo at that point and you'd really protect a bottom 6er over a top 4 D? The chat were talking about is if Orlov plays amazing and is a top 4D next year.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Amazing? Hope for adequate.....

 

[Hivemind]

I figure they'd trade Mojo at that point and you'd really protect a bottom 6er over a top 4 D? The chat were talking about is if Orlov plays amazing and is a top 4D next year.

Trading players to protect other players doesn't really make much sense. Then you're losing two useful players instead of just one. We pretty much have to accept that we're going to lose a player we don't want to lose in the expansion draft, there's no way around it. Grubauer is the situation with the least immediate impact to the roster, but even Grubauer is becoming a valuable asset.

 

[twabby]

If Orlov has a great season I could see the Capitals protecting him over Johansson, Wilson, Beagle, Eller, etc.

The only 4 forwards who for sure will be protected at this point are Ovechkin, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, and Burakovsky. Oshie and Williams will be UFAs so they might not be protected. Johansson likely is done with his development at this point and I could see him being exposed if he can't provide offense at even strength. Wilson, if he doesn't show much offensive growth, isn't worth protecting over a good top 4 D. Beagle is a great 4C but again, those aren't as rare as a good top 4 D. And Eller is a wild card right now since I don't think anyone knows what to expect after some tumultuous years in Montreal.

It's still very early and I'd guess Orlov will be exposed, but it wouldn't shock me to see him have a great season and be protected as part of the 8 skaters + 1 goalie scheme rather than the 7 forwards, 3 defensemen, and 1 goalie scheme.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I figure they'd trade Mojo at that point and you'd really protect a bottom 6er over a top 4 D? The chat were talking about is if Orlov plays amazing and is a top 4D next year.

Yes. C depth (well, good C depth) has been an ever after issue for this franchise. They have quite a few guys that can slot into the D spot (Schmidt, Orpik, Bowey to name a few). I think Eller will be more than a 3C. So yes...Eller.

I also love Beagle. But that's as an aside.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Oshie's protection very much depends on his contract status, IMO. I don't think they protect an unsigned Oshie, nor do I think Vegas would be particularly likely to select him if he's set on testing UFA waters.

I expect Oshie and Alzner to sign extensions during the course of the season, unless they have a terrible injury or get hurt.

Oshie is just getting better, it seems, and brings a lot of intangibles to the program. He's also a terrific player. I'd like to see him get locked up to a 5.5-6m a year deal, for 5 years.

Alzner is same.....and I'd go longer. 4.5 for 8