Confirmed with Link: Orlov signs 1 year 2.57 mil

[twabby]

Yes, he still had 11 assists. Did you check when those assists came? you should check that. he has 6 assists in his last 24 games rs and playoffs. he had a he had a 5 game streak with 7 assists in early March and then the assists dried up along with the goals. You should stop using the assists as a sign that he didn't collapse.

A player that everyone knows because of career norms having a big playoffs is an anomaly is easy to see. A player with 2 playoffs where he was ok in one and a failure in the other remains a fair question mark.

You could say that Oshie had a career playoffs as his previous playoffs have been nothing to write home about. But those playoffs followed a career year in new surroundings.

Or there is the reverse. Had Kuznetsov followed a rs leading the team in scoring with a playoffs of leading the team in scoring, you would be saying the Caps need to lock him up for big numbers asap.

I'm not saying Kuznetsov's point production didn't drop in the playoffs because clearly it did. I'm saying given historical data and trends and how his underlying metrics fit in with these, it's not a scenario that is likely to repeat (i.e. he was really unlucky). Maybe he'll end up being a chronic playoff underperformer, but the odds are against it. I'd like to see him maintain his regular season success for a few months, but if puts up another good regular season I'd be willing to sign him long term, even if he underperforms in the playoffs again.

Oshie, on the other hand, had a "career year" almost solely due to his power play production and a hot streak in the playoffs. His even strength production on a per 60 basis was the worst of his career, aside from 2012-13 where he only played 30 games. He also had very lukewarm possession numbers. This is despite getting first line minutes for most of the season alongside Backstrom and Ovechkin, two of the best offensive players in the world. He's also going to be on the wrong side of 30 next year and will likely continue to trend down since almost every forward does this. There's just nothing about him that wows me, and while he's been a nice fit on the power play he is clearly not irreplaceable (in fact I'd say he's probably the most replaceable part on that unit).

I like the idea of bringing Oshie back to a reasonable deal for a reasonable term. I don't like the idea of signing him until his is 36 years old for big bucks.

edit: vvvvvvv What bias? vvvvvvv

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

The bias is strong in this one....

 

[g00n]

The bias is strong in this one....

Thinking Oshie had a bad or downward trending year is a perfect example of being selectively buried in numbers.

 

[Langway]

It stands to reason, given the age difference, that Kuznetsov is the more likely of the two to improve upon current production and to warrant a market rate contract. I'm not sure Kuznetsov will be a consistent point per game player but other areas of his game should improve (faceoffs, defensive play, strength, reading the play).

Oshie did see a dip in his recent assist totals and that's somewhat concerning given who his most common linemates were (8/19 vs. Backes/Steen). It's when linemates are taken into consideration that you have to wonder if that was really a career season. It wasn't from a point standpoint despite the plum PP/ES linemates. It was in the playoffs and that makes signing him a bit more complicated but, like I said, that decision doesn't need to be made yet. If waiting ultimately costs them the player then so be it. He hasn't shown enough yet to warrant something like a 5x$6M. Not even close IMO.

 

[twabby]

Thinking Oshie had a bad or downward trending year is a perfect example of being selectively buried in numbers.

I don't think he had a bad year, but the perception of him having a "career year" is strongly influenced by his good postseason. Postseason performance is highly volatile unless you are a star player and while it's fair to weigh postseason games more than regular season games, it's unwise to place too much stock into a 12 game sample. In aggregate Oshie had a nice season IMO, but people are talking about paying him like a top 20 winger in the league for 5-6 years which I take issue with.

I think he could be trending down not because of his dropoff in even strength production, but simply because of age. Yes, some players buck the trend and do better in their 30s but those are the exception, not the rule. No convincing argument has been made to suggest Oshie will age much better than similar players and for that reason I'd rather not pay him until he's 35-36 years old and especially at a top 20 cap hit amongst wingers.

 

[g00n]

I don't think he had a bad year, but the perception of him having a "career year" is strongly influenced by his good postseason. Postseason performance is highly volatile unless you are a star player and while it's fair to weigh postseason games more than regular season games, it's unwise to place too much stock into a 12 game sample. In aggregate Oshie had a nice season IMO, but people are talking about paying him like a top 20 winger in the league for 5-6 years which I take issue with.

I think he could be trending down not because of his dropoff in even strength production, but simply because of age. Yes, some players buck the trend and do better in their 30s but those are the exception, not the rule. No convincing argument has been made to suggest Oshie will age much better than similar players and for that reason I'd rather not pay him until he's 35-36 years old and especially at a top 20 cap hit amongst wingers.

Curious as to what such an argument might look like. For any player.

 

[twabby]

The onus is on those who want to sign Oshie for a long term contract to prove that he can buck the trend, not the other way. There is a ton of evidence out there to suggest that points, possession, speed, etc. decrease as forwards get into their 30s. Oshie's points at even strength and possession stats took a dip last season. Is it enough to 100% conclude he is in a decline? No, but it certainly doesn't help prove the opposite (that he is going to continue at the same pace or even improve over a 5-6 year period) .

To make a case for signing Oshie (or any player) to a long term deal you could make a list of all players who continue to perform well into their mid 30s and see how their ages 22-29 seasons compare to Oshie's ages 22-29 seasons. You should have some level of production you expect Oshie to produce at ages 34-36 given a $5-6M a year contract. Filter players ages 34+ from the past few years who have met those criteria and see how their earlier careers match up with Oshie's.

If I'm paying a winger $5M to $6M a year I think 50 points is a reasonable goal. This season only 8 forwards (and 5 wingers) ages 34+ put up 50+ points: Daniel Sedin, Jaromir Jagr, Justin Williams, Patrick Sharp, Joe Thornton, Henrik Zetterberg, Henrik Sedin, and Mike Ribeiro. All of these players had far more prolific early careers than Oshie in terms of point production.

Go back a years and do the same exercise and you'll get similar lists of all-star players. I can't say Oshie is in the same ballpark as any of those players listed above so I have heavy doubts that he will also produce 50 points.

Ovechkin, Backstrom, Crosby, and other similar players who are around 29-30 years old, on the other hand, are probably going to continue to produce into their mid-30s because they compare favorably to those who actually have produced into their mid-30s.

You could also filter for players who scored 50ish points (similar to Oshie) at age 29 and see how their mid-30s seasons panned out and see how those compare to the level of production you'd like to see out of a mid-30s Oshie given a $5M-$6M contract.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

What do the numbers say about garbage replacements for your top-6?

I don't want 6 years, I want 4, would probably be ok with 5 for 5.5. My expectation in an Oshie extension is not about bucking any trends. If he provides 20'ish goals, 50'ish points the first 4 years, the contract is fine. If he's 20g, 40'ish pts in the final year, nobody is sweating it much assuming he's at least decent in the playoffs. The guy appears to be a well liked teammate.

Siphoning off skilled players of that caliber is a step further away from a Cup ultimately and Ovy could easily be gone in 5 years. The time is now. Dismissing an Oshie extension today is foolhardy. He may well be among their best options heading into next summer. I'm pulling for an extension announcement. Should Burt suddenly explode or Vrana, then maybe we have some options. Until then....

 

[Ridley Simon]

I don't think he had a bad year, but the perception of him having a "career year" is strongly influenced by his good postseason. Postseason performance is highly volatile unless you are a star player and while it's fair to weigh postseason games more than regular season games, it's unwise to place too much stock into a 12 game sample. In aggregate Oshie had a nice season IMO, but people are talking about paying him like a top 20 winger in the league for 5-6 years which I take issue with.

I think he could be trending down not because of his dropoff in even strength production, but simply because of age. Yes, some players buck the trend and do better in their 30s but those are the exception, not the rule. No convincing argument has been made to suggest Oshie will age much better than similar players and for that reason I'd rather not pay him until he's 35-36 years old and especially at a top 20 cap hit amongst wingers.

You don't think Oshie is a top line RW? Can you name 30 that are better? He's worth 5.5m for 5 years.

5.5m will absolutely NOT be a top 20 contract when Oshie is 35. That will probably be a top 75 contract in 2021, which is probably exactly where Oshie's play will be. He has great hands. Those don't "get worse" with age unless he's injured. He will be a top 9 scoring winger in 5 years, IMO. Thinking otherwise seems to be about fitting a narrative, and not about what he will look like as a player.

 

[Ridley Simon]

The onus is on those who want to sign Oshie for a long term contract to prove that he can buck the trend, not the other way. There is a ton of evidence out there to suggest that points, possession, speed, etc. decrease as forwards get into their 30s. Oshie's points at even strength and possession stats took a dip last season. Is it enough to 100% conclude he is in a decline? No, but it certainly doesn't help prove the opposite (that he is going to continue at the same pace or even improve over a 5-6 year period) .

To make a case for signing Oshie (or any player) to a long term deal you could make a list of all players who continue to perform well into their mid 30s and see how their ages 22-29 seasons compare to Oshie's ages 22-29 seasons. You should have some level of production you expect Oshie to produce at ages 34-36 given a $5-6M a year contract. Filter players ages 34+ from the past few years who have met those criteria and see how their earlier careers match up with Oshie's.

If I'm paying a winger $5M to $6M a year I think 50 points is a reasonable goal. This season only 8 forwards (and 5 wingers) ages 34+ put up 50+ points: Daniel Sedin, Jaromir Jagr, Justin Williams, Patrick Sharp, Joe Thornton, Henrik Zetterberg, Henrik Sedin, and Mike Ribeiro. All of these players had far more prolific early careers than Oshie in terms of point production.

Go back a years and do the same exercise and you'll get similar lists of all-star players. I can't say Oshie is in the same ballpark as any of those players listed above so I have heavy doubts that he will also produce 50 points.

Ovechkin, Backstrom, Crosby, and other similar players who are around 29-30 years old, on the other hand, are probably going to continue to produce into their mid-30s because they compare favorably to those who actually have produced into their mid-30s.

You could also filter for players who scored 50ish points (similar to Oshie) at age 29 and see how their mid-30s seasons panned out and see how those compare to the level of production you'd like to see out of a mid-30s Oshie given a $5M-$6M contract.

It's like you don't understands contracts. I know you do, so why are you being obtuse?

"Player X is not going to be as good at 35 as he is at 30". Well, no ****, Sherlock. Of course not. But we aren't going to be able to pay him on a year to year basis. That's not how it works. You hope to make it all average out, knowing full well that production at the end will not equal production at the beginning.

Will Oshie be worth 5.5m at 35, as to compared to OTHER 35 year olds at the time? If so, then he's worth the money. Salaries are going up, not down. Is his production worth 5.5m now? Will it be in 2 years? 3 years? That's the argument.

Come on, man.

You think Ovechkin will be worth 9.5m in 5 years? Fat chance. Does that make his contract a bad one? NO!!! (Well, you will probably now argue that we shouldn't have signed him to the 13 year deal because he won't be worth it in year 11-13)

 

[SpinningEdge]

Oshie is a legitimate top line RW.

If he does well - you pay him. If he doesn't, whatever.

CBA would end in the middle of the 6 year contract anyways and I'm sure NHL is due for a huge jump in revenue. Like NBA - top players who were getting top dollar just a year or two ago on long contracts are now huge bargains.

What do people want to see? Jay Beagle on top line again? Geeze... We finally have a top line RW who is going great and people are worried he MAYBE may not be good in 5 or 6 years? 35 and 36 isn't the end of the world.

 

[Langway]

You don't think Oshie is a top line RW? Can you name 30 that are better? He's worth 5.5m for 5 years.

I have him around 25, albeit with some right-shooting Ws that move sides a bit mixed in there. So while in a technical sense he's a top-line RW I wouldn't advise investing too heavily in that continuing. I also don't think he's great on the top line. Their GF% was very strong but 8/19 had better underlying possession numbers away from Oshie with only Ovechkin seeing a slight GF% dip (still quite strong). Before too long it's probably going to be better to have either Kuznetsov centering the top line or Bura at RW providing additional pace.

I also wouldn't assume Oshie provides immediate surplus value on a near market value contract. While some of those other wingers like Eriksson are getting older and could fall off the vast majority are younger. Prospects like the Nylander brothers could jump him before too long, among others.

That will probably be a top 75 contract in 2021, which is probably exactly where Oshie's play will be. He has great hands. Those don't "get worse" with age unless he's injured. He will be a top 9 scoring winger in 5 years, IMO. Thinking otherwise seems to be about fitting a narrative, and not about what he will look like as a player.

This may end up true but his skating is likely what would hold him back on a scoring-line in today's game. Oshie has the work rate to fit on a third line should he slow down and could provide further value via PP/SO but projecting three years down the line it's probably not ideal to pay that much for a third-liner. There are ways to rid themselves of the contract but I doubt that's just a top 75 contract among wingers by that point. Player salaries won't jump that significantly over a five year period and the cap won't blow up like the NBA's has. More likely there will be continued slow growth, in part thanks to continued use of the 5% inflator.

I don't think the onus is on people to prove what essentially can't be proven but a true plan also can't gloss over the here and now. The odds are against Oshie becoming better than he already is and there are risks in betting on his current production to be sustained. And yet if he has another strong playoff run it wouldn't be surprising if they made a risky bet. It wouldn't be the first and it won't be the last.

 

[Raikkonen]

In 4 WCH games Orlov wasn't on the ice for any goals against. Small sample size warning.

I'd not believe this before the tournament.

But Zaitsev was clearly better anyway, perhaps he carried Dima

 

[Ajax1995]

You don't think Oshie is a top line RW? Can you name 30 that are better?

That's the bar here, good enough to play on the top line on a bad team? How about on a contender or even playoff team? IMO based on his play last year, again especially at ES, the answer is maybe. I need to see more before giving him 5 years for around $30 mil. I'm fine with waiting until January and reevaluating then.

 

[Ridley Simon]

At this point in time? Not a chance. Could he become one? Sure. But if they are making plans now with the idea that he is going to be filling that role they are taking a huge leap of faith, and a very undeserved one at that given how little he has shown even at the AHL level at this point.

Basically it is way too early to be assuming he will become that level of player for planning purposes. Does he have the potential to at least hopefully be in the mix? Sure. But no way can you be planning on him filling that role at this point.

And the good news is they don't need to be making any of those longer term decisions now. Who knows how this season will play out on so many levels?

IMO of course...

Well, Bowey scored a goal tonite. So in the age of instant gratification, I must be right.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Interesting....Spotrac has Orlov at 2.75......typo?