Confirmed with Link: Orlov signs 1 year 2.57 mil

CapitalsCupReality

It’s Go Time!!
Feb 27, 2002
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They also get fired when they make poor bets on the future when that futures blows up on them and they're left with minimal cap flexibility or are forced to trade better/younger players. There are a lot of ways people get canned and it's mostly about being irresponsible and making poor decisions. That goes both ways along the safety/risk spectrum. Some bets really aren't as safe as they're believed to be. There may be a middle ground with Oshie for both sides but in all likelihood this will be his last big contract. I certainly wouldn't hold it against him if he cashed out in UFA. And, yes, the Caps will survive if that happens. No, it's not certain BAD THINGS WILL HAPPEN. They survived letting Ribeiro go and they'd survive letting Oshie go. Vrana isn't Kuznetsov barring a breakout year but he can be serviceable with stable play around him (or better). Iginla and Sharp come to mind immediately as two veteran options with less term required that would be in the Williams mold (if not Williams himself). And there will be others. There always are. This is not some do-or-die player.

I get it. Fans get attached to players but GMs can't operate that way to the point where judgement is clouded. It's about what's best for the organization and re-signing Oshie may not be realistic (or necessarily smart). Generally I'd concentrate more on retaining and acquiring elite to prime players than retaining older ones on the downside. Today's game is more about the former than the later than ever.

Again, I don't think it would be the worst thing if they take a step back at some point and focus more on skill development across the board. If that comes with lowered expectations for a season so be it. I'm not saying next season will be that year, or that they have the right people in place to try it necessarily, but I don't think it would be a disaster. Mowing down teams in the regular season gets kind of stale when they learn nothing from it (or arguably learn the wrong things because of it). Some adversity and more youth being relied upon wouldn't be the worst thing. It's easy for me to say but if they're truly an elite organization then it should be manageable. Elite franchise across all sports do this at times when prudence dictates it and the idea of it need not be so terrifying because it's not truly about any one player.

Who gets fired first, the GM who has no plan or the GM follows the wrong plan? The Caps already are projecting what he's going to cost, that I have no doubt of. I bet they would love to sign him to a 4 year deal. I think ultimately it comes down to the term he's willing to settle on. If he has a solid year teams will be lining up. This decision isn't about surviving, it's about exceeding expectation when you win it all. I just don't think letting him walk gets this team any closer to winning a Cup. This team with him is closer. They can take a step back after Ovy is gone...
 

Brian23

Registered User
Dec 3, 2011
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A far more likely scenario is Oshie gets extended and Orlov plays next year in Vegas.

I've said all along, I want McPhee to take Grubauer. Maybe he will have a terrific year backing Holts, and we get lucky.

I'd rather the "Need veteran, stay at home D" gets into his head and he takes Orpik...
 

Langway

In den Wolken
Jul 7, 2006
32,267
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Who gets fired first, the GM who has no plan or the GM follows the wrong plan?
Letting Oshie walk for strategic reasons isn't lacking a plan. It maybe shows a short-sighted inclination trading for a player only to walk once he needs a raise but St. Louis did the same with Brouwer and it's not the first time they've done so themselves. Discipline is a key aspect in not making bad decisions. They should have established numbers they're comfortable with and leave it at that. First off, though, they need to get Alzner & Kuznetsov done so that they have a better idea of what they're working with.
I just don't think letting him walk gets this team any closer to winning a Cup. This team with him is closer. They can take a step back after Ovy is gone...
That's too simplistic for the cap era. It's not about keeping a player that makes them better but finding the value that works and prioritizing the right positions. If they hunker down like that what's left for upgrading the defense should it continue to underwhelm? GMs have to set the right priorities and understand the consequences. Oshie may make them better but is it enough given the resulting limitations? At what price/term point does that hinder them? Orpik is a significant hindrance and I'd be fine giving Oshie his $5.5M for two or three years instead. That's part of the balancing act of not just retaining what's here but more accurately evaluating whether what's here is good enough.

If they fall short this year those kind of questions need to be asked when it comes to overall mix. That could impact their decision with Oshie and bigger picture questions re: Orpik, Orlov and maybe some of their younger but experienced forwards depending on how it plays out. Point is: MacLellan can't bunker down and restrict his options by desperately grasping onto the current mix if the current mix hasn't put it together. Thankfully he's hinted at maybe needing to re-structure depending on how it plays out but we'll see how true he sticks to that should it be necessary. There are moves they could make that position them better to be able to extend Oshie next summer. I wouldn't be entirely against it but it's not so simple as Keep Good Player these days. Outside of getting Alzner & Kuznetsov done or maybe a value extension to a younger player, everything else can maybe wait until next summer when they have a clearer outlook on what comes next.
 

Ridley Simon

Registered User
Feb 27, 2002
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Marin County — SF Bay Area, CA
Letting Oshie walk for strategic reasons isn't lacking a plan. It maybe shows a short-sighted inclination trading for a player only to walk once he needs a raise but St. Louis did the same with Brouwer and it's not the first time they've done so themselves. Discipline is a key aspect in not making bad decisions. They should have established numbers they're comfortable with and leave it at that. First off, though, they need to get Alzner & Kuznetsov done so that they have a better idea of what they're working with.

That's too simplistic for the cap era. It's not about keeping a player that makes them better but finding the value that works and prioritizing the right positions. If they hunker down like that what's left for upgrading the defense should it continue to underwhelm? GMs have to set the right priorities and understand the consequences. Oshie may make them better but is it enough given the resulting limitations? At what price/term point does that hinder them? Orpik is a significant hindrance and I'd be fine giving Oshie his $5.5M for two or three years instead. That's part of the balancing act of not just retaining what's here but more accurately evaluating whether what's here is good enough.

If they fall short this year those kind of questions need to be asked when it comes to overall mix. That could impact their decision with Oshie and bigger picture questions re: Orpik, Orlov and maybe some of their younger but experienced forwards depending on how it plays out. Point is: MacLellan can't bunker down and restrict his options by desperately grasping onto the current mix if the current mix hasn't put it together. Thankfully he's hinted at maybe needing to re-structure depending on how it plays out but we'll see how true he sticks to that should it be necessary. There are moves they could make that position them better to be able to extend Oshie next summer. I wouldn't be entirely against it but it's not so simple as Keep Good Player these days. Outside of getting Alzner & Kuznetsov done or maybe a value extension to a younger player, everything else can maybe wait until next summer when they have a clearer outlook on what comes next.

I think they see Alzner, Carlson, Bowey as 3 of the top 4 for the next decade. Niskanen is young enough to hold down a spot for at least 5 years. Then their is Schmidt. Johansen. Perhaps the new Johansen won't turn into anything, but that's still 5 guys that should be able to solidify their ranks. Not counting any of the other players at Hershey or that could be drafted/traded for/college FA's. Orlov is a luxury, candidly.

Far as forwards, it's a lot less certain. The top 4 (Ovy, Backs, Kuz, and hopefully Bura). Then what? MaJo and Eller. What to do with them? Vrana should hopefully be one of the guys there. Wilson is the wild card (looking less and less wild, but we will see). The rest of the pieces are probably lower level or bottom 6.

So that leaves Oshie. If he's a guy that helps you win playoff rounds (he looked that way this past spring), then he's absolutely part of the group. If he isn't one of those guys, then you let him go....but only then. His role is NOT easily filled when talking top 6 W. Not internally. Externally is a crap shoot.

I think GMBM gets GMGM to take Orpik somehow. Not as the expansion player, but in another deal. We will see.
 

Ajax1995

Registered User
Dec 9, 2002
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No way at this point can they be expecting Bowey and his suspect toolbox to hold down a top 4 spot in the future. Hoping? Sure but making any kind of decisions in the near term based on that premise would be absurd IMO.
 

MrGone

Registered User
Nov 18, 2009
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When we start talking "Letting Oshie walk for strategic reasons" its a clear sign the window is closing. Our guys are just not going to be better because we have to pay them more. Some of the younger guys will get better but I don't think guys like Kuza will jump in production to justify "Letting Oshie walk for strategic reasons".

The team really needs one or two guys to jump up and really out play there ELC. And then sign a nice bride deal to hold to together the next few seasons.
 

Alexander the Gr8

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May 2, 2013
31,602
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Toronto
When we start talking "Letting Oshie walk for strategic reasons" its a clear sign the window is closing. Our guys are just not going to be better because we have to pay them more. Some of the younger guys will get better but I don't think guys like Kuza will jump in production to justify "Letting Oshie walk for strategic reasons".

The team really needs one or two guys to jump up and really out play there ELC. And then sign a nice bride deal to hold to together the next few seasons.

This is why we need Bura, Vrana and Bowey to take a big step forward. If we have to sacrifice Oshie to keep going a little longer, we better compensate for the loss by an improvement from our young players.

The window is as open as it every was, but it will start to close after this year if we don't do something. The Blackhawks were able to keep going for a long time despite losing very good players from their support cast. We'll see how good GMBM is.
 

MrGone

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Nov 18, 2009
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This is why we need Bura, Vrana and Bowey to take a big step forward. If we have to sacrifice Oshie to keep going a little longer, we better compensate for the loss by an improvement from our young players.

The window is as open as it every was, but it will start to close after this year if we don't do something. The Blackhawks were able to keep going for a long time despite losing very good players from their support cast. We'll see how good GMBM is.

We needed it to be Mojo, Kuza, Bura and Wilson. That was the best window going by the rest of the teams cap. Before Holtby was 6m and Mojo 4.5. And now it going to be Kuza at 6.5 and Alzner at 4.5. And the team is not getting vastly better. Its only getting more expensive.

I think hopping that Varna and Bowey (Both a good year away. Maybe two for Bowey) and Bura who already had a wealth of opportunities to be that guy. Is more false hope then a claw machine.
 

Ridley Simon

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Feb 27, 2002
18,127
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Marin County — SF Bay Area, CA
No way at this point can they be expecting Bowey and his suspect toolbox to hold down a top 4 spot in the future. Hoping? Sure but making any kind of decisions in the near term based on that premise would be absurd IMO.

Couple things:

In a year from now, the team will be forced to make a lot of hard decisions. Looking at trying to determine which youth can fill 2 top 6W's and 1 top 4D. If they don't envision Bowey as a long term fill (whether in 2-3 years or then), he has to be traded. Vrana is the same.

This is a discussion around the merits of keeping Oshie (over someone like Orlov), and they will have more needs to fill in the top 6, then the top 4. Bowey and Vrana should be counted on as replacements. I'm wagering that they are being counted on.

And Millhaus -- you of all people argue drawing negative conclusions on young players. You make that point routinely. Yet you are doing so w Bowey? How Alanis Morrisette of you.
 

Ajax1995

Registered User
Dec 9, 2002
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859
Couple things:

In a year from now, the team will be forced to make a lot of hard decisions. Looking at trying to determine which youth can fill 2 top 6W's and 1 top 4D. If they don't envision Bowey as a long term fill (whether in 2-3 years or then), he has to be traded. Vrana is the same.

This is a discussion around the merits of keeping Oshie (over someone like Orlov), and they will have more needs to fill in the top 6, then the top 4. Bowey and Vrana should be counted on as replacements. I'm wagering that they are being counted on.

And Millhaus -- you of all people argue drawing negative conclusions on young players. You make that point routinely. Yet you are doing so w Bowey? How Alanis Morrisette of you.

I'm simply saying at this point counting on Bowey to be a top 4 mainstay in the future is foolish.

He just made a step up to the AHL and was ok but far from great, which is fine for a first year pro IMO. We will see how much he improves this season but sure I am hoping for a decent improvement in his game at that level.

He has always struggled stepping up a level so I for one am not expecting anything when he first gets to the NHL either. His tools likely mean he will be an NHL player but what kind is way too hard to tell at this point. How will his toolbox deal with the speed of the NHL game? I don't know but there is no way I'm the only one with these concerns.

I'm just say counting on him to be a top 4 guy in the future at this point is ridiculous. Way too much unknown about how he will develop and what he will look like when makes that step up to the NHL level.

I'm not saying I don't like the player or that he won't or can't improve or that he won't be an NHL player. I just don't think at this point it makes any sense whatsoever to make decisions with the idea that he is some kind of lock to be a top 4 guy. He definitely could be but it is way too early to tell if those odds are good enough to start thinking he actually will be or not.

I'm not quite sure how this is a controversial opinion?
 

Ridley Simon

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Feb 27, 2002
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Marin County — SF Bay Area, CA
I'm simply saying at this point counting on Bowey to be a top 4 mainstay in the future is foolish.

He just made a step up to the AHL and was ok but far from great, which is fine for a first year pro IMO. We will see how much he improves this season but sure I am hoping for a decent improvement in his game at that level.

He has always struggled stepping up a level so I for one am not expecting anything when he first gets to the NHL either. His tools likely mean he will be an NHL player but what kind is way too hard to tell at this point. How will his toolbox deal with the speed of the NHL game? I don't know but there is no way I'm the only one with these concerns.

I'm just say counting on him to be a top 4 guy in the future at this point is ridiculous. Way too much unknown about how he will develop and what he will look like when makes that step up to the NHL level.

I'm not saying I don't like the player or that he won't or can't improve or that he won't be an NHL player. I just don't think at this point it makes any sense whatsoever to make decisions with the idea that he is some kind of lock to be a top 4 guy. He definitely could be but it is way too early to tell if those odds are good enough to start thinking he actually will be or not.

I'm not quite sure how this is a controversial opinion?

No one said lock. Anywhere. "I think they see". Where does that say "lock!!!"

So, you're telling me, you don't think the Caps have Bowey penciled into their top 4 in 3 years? When they talk about the future? There are very few certainties in sports..and even less when projecting out a roster 2-3 years down the road. It's all "assumptions".

My response was to Langway's statements about the team having a plan, and executing it. I think Orlov will/can be let go for other resources as they see Bowey as a top 4 D man in their overall plan. Especially considering how Trotz coaches up DMen. Thus allowing them to re-sign Oshie.

What do you see? Your either picking a squabble here, or not following along with this aspect of the discussion.
 
Last edited:

CapitalsCupReality

It’s Go Time!!
Feb 27, 2002
64,388
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Letting Oshie walk for strategic reasons isn't lacking a plan. It maybe shows a short-sighted inclination trading for a player only to walk once he needs a raise but St. Louis did the same with Brouwer and it's not the first time they've done so themselves. Discipline is a key aspect in not making bad decisions. They should have established numbers they're comfortable with and leave it at that. First off, though, they need to get Alzner & Kuznetsov done so that they have a better idea of what they're working with.

That's too simplistic for the cap era. It's not about keeping a player that makes them better but finding the value that works and prioritizing the right positions. If they hunker down like that what's left for upgrading the defense should it continue to underwhelm? GMs have to set the right priorities and understand the consequences. Oshie may make them better but is it enough given the resulting limitations? At what price/term point does that hinder them? Orpik is a significant hindrance and I'd be fine giving Oshie his $5.5M for two or three years instead. That's part of the balancing act of not just retaining what's here but more accurately evaluating whether what's here is good enough.

If they fall short this year those kind of questions need to be asked when it comes to overall mix. That could impact their decision with Oshie and bigger picture questions re: Orpik, Orlov and maybe some of their younger but experienced forwards depending on how it plays out. Point is: MacLellan can't bunker down and restrict his options by desperately grasping onto the current mix if the current mix hasn't put it together. Thankfully he's hinted at maybe needing to re-structure depending on how it plays out but we'll see how true he sticks to that should it be necessary. There are moves they could make that position them better to be able to extend Oshie next summer. I wouldn't be entirely against it but it's not so simple as Keep Good Player these days. Outside of getting Alzner & Kuznetsov done or maybe a value extension to a younger player, everything else can maybe wait until next summer when they have a clearer outlook on what comes next.

Sorry, but letting Oshie walk with hope for an (today) imaginary free agent replacement player at a good price is not strategic, it's foolish. Show me an actual PLAN to replace a key player. Just typing it out doesn't actually make it a desperate grasp.
 

CapitalsCupReality

It’s Go Time!!
Feb 27, 2002
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No way at this point can they be expecting Bowey and his suspect toolbox to hold down a top 4 spot in the future. Hoping? Sure but making any kind of decisions in the near term based on that premise would be absurd IMO.

Please expand on your evaluation on the player. First I'm hearing of a suspect toolbox. Have some inside info that the rest of us don't have?
 

txpd

Registered User
Jan 25, 2003
69,649
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New Bern, NC
Relying on a single playoff performance to predict future performance leads to situations like the Dave Bolland and Bryan Bickell contracts (and Troy Brouwer's contract with the Flames I bet will be seen as a mistake very shortly). I'm not saying Oshie is nearly as bad as those players, but a more measured approach needs to be taken rather than reacting to a short sample of games when potentially handing out huge contracts. Take away Oshie's power play production and he didn't have a great season last year. A big contract IMO requires consistent even strength production.

And Kuznetsov's goal scoring dried up during the last quarter of the regular season but he was still getting assists (11 in his final 20 games). I'm not worried about him at all because he is at an age and experience level where he will likely continue to grow as a player, while Oshie is realistically on the downslope of his career in all probability.

All of that said, I'd love to have Oshie back if his demands are reasonable from the team's perspective.

Yes, he still had 11 assists. Did you check when those assists came? you should check that. he has 6 assists in his last 24 games rs and playoffs. he had a he had a 5 game streak with 7 assists in early March and then the assists dried up along with the goals. You should stop using the assists as a sign that he didn't collapse.

A player that everyone knows because of career norms having a big playoffs is an anomaly is easy to see. A player with 2 playoffs where he was ok in one and a failure in the other remains a fair question mark.

You could say that Oshie had a career playoffs as his previous playoffs have been nothing to write home about. But those playoffs followed a career year in new surroundings.

Or there is the reverse. Had Kuznetsov followed a rs leading the team in scoring with a playoffs of leading the team in scoring, you would be saying the Caps need to lock him up for big numbers asap.
 

Langway

In den Wolken
Jul 7, 2006
32,267
8,894
Sorry, but letting Oshie walk with hope for an (today) imaginary free agent replacement player at a good price is not strategic, it's foolish. Show me an actual PLAN to replace a key player. Just typing it out doesn't actually make it a desperate grasp.
Well, the actual decision doesn't need to be made right now either way. I've already mentioned a couple of options. There will be real free agents out there when the time comes. Some are bound to fall into a more realistic price range both in AAV and term. Acting like it's TJ Oshie at market value or, gasp, doom! is the stuff of amateurs. This isn't Ovechkin we're talking about. It's not Lidstrom, it's not Bondra. This is not a HHoF level player we're talking about replacing here potentially. Alarms need not go off if in nine months he's still not signed.

I get it. He's an American. He has cool dekes but he's not a real top-line winger IMO so it's difficult to start paying him like one when it's only going to become less likely.
 

Ajax1995

Registered User
Dec 9, 2002
8,797
859
So, you're telling me, you don't think the Caps have Bowey penciled into their top 4 in 3 years?

At this point in time? Not a chance. Could he become one? Sure. But if they are making plans now with the idea that he is going to be filling that role they are taking a huge leap of faith, and a very undeserved one at that given how little he has shown even at the AHL level at this point.

Basically it is way too early to be assuming he will become that level of player for planning purposes. Does he have the potential to at least hopefully be in the mix? Sure. But no way can you be planning on him filling that role at this point.

And the good news is they don't need to be making any of those longer term decisions now. Who knows how this season will play out on so many levels?

IMO of course...
 

Ajax1995

Registered User
Dec 9, 2002
8,797
859
Please expand on your evaluation on the player. First I'm hearing of a suspect toolbox. Have some inside info that the rest of us don't have?

Bowey has always had issues stepping up a level and everything I have read on the matter has always pinned this on his questionable hockey sense and reading of the game, his toolbox, as his physical tools are definitely there.

This started with world junior camps and tournaments and continued last season making that leap to the AHL level.

Now in the past he has usually eventually gotten up to speed at the higher level but not nearly as quickly as you'd expect a player with his abilities to and maybe not to the extent you'd expect him to given how successful he was for such a long time in the WHL.

In no way am I saying he can't or won't become a top 4 mainstay. I'm just saying it is way too early to make that call or expect him to become that guy.
 

Ajax1995

Registered User
Dec 9, 2002
8,797
859
Well, the actual decision doesn't need to be made right now either way.

Which IMO is the biggest thing here.

I'm not quite sure why so many were so impressed with Oshie's first season in DC to already be ready to give him $30 mil over 5 years. He was ok but given who he played with in St. Louis and who he played with last season I frankly expected a decent amount more, especially at even strength. I mean his ES production was on par with Johansson's, whose ES production is often a source of derision around here.

If halfway through this season he is really gelling well with Backstrom or Kuznetsov and whatever left winger he is usually playing with and putting up decently better ES numbers then ok resigning him becomes a bigger priority. But at this point I need to see more personally before I would consider giving him that kind of money.
 

Szechwan

Registered User
Sep 13, 2006
5,654
4,966
Is Orlov expected to see much PP time this year? Any idea what unit to expect him on?
 

Ajax1995

Registered User
Dec 9, 2002
8,797
859
Is Orlov expected to see much PP time this year? Any idea what unit to expect him on?

Their PP doesn't have a spot for a left shot pointman so I highly doubt it unless they try to create a unit that mirrors their current setup from the other side and I don't see that happening. Though it would be an interesting wrinkle...
 

CapitalsCupReality

It’s Go Time!!
Feb 27, 2002
64,388
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Well, the actual decision doesn't need to be made right now either way. I've already mentioned a couple of options. There will be real free agents out there when the time comes. Some are bound to fall into a more realistic price range both in AAV and term. Acting like it's TJ Oshie at market value or, gasp, doom! is the stuff of amateurs. This isn't Ovechkin we're talking about. It's not Lidstrom, it's not Bondra. This is not a HHoF level player we're talking about replacing here potentially. Alarms need not go off if in nine months he's still not signed.

I get it. He's an American. He has cool dekes but he's not a real top-line winger IMO so it's difficult to start paying him like one when it's only going to become less likely.

I don't get this nonsense you're spouting about he's America can he can deke. The simple truth is he's their best top-6 RW. when your hypothetical free agent solution that equally replaces what he brings becomes available, and the Caps can get him, I'll be a believer in that path. All depends on what Oshie wants. If he prices himself out of town, then there's nothing else to do other than go fishing for a replacement. I bet we can trade back for Brouwer by then....:(. Oshie is in no way irreplaceable, but if you're trying to win now, you don't let your better players walk with no likely replacement plan that makes sense as it pertains to winning a Cup.
 

CapitalsCupReality

It’s Go Time!!
Feb 27, 2002
64,388
19,089
Bowey has always had issues stepping up a level and everything I have read on the matter has always pinned this on his questionable hockey sense and reading of the game, his toolbox, as his physical tools are definitely there.

This started with world junior camps and tournaments and continued last season making that leap to the AHL level.

Now in the past he has usually eventually gotten up to speed at the higher level but not nearly as quickly as you'd expect a player with his abilities to and maybe not to the extent you'd expect him to given how successful he was for such a long time in the WHL.

In no way am I saying he can't or won't become a top 4 mainstay. I'm just saying it is way too early to make that call or expect him to become that guy.

Any legit links to share? I'd love to read them. The Hershey posters seem positive about him.
 

trick9

Registered User
Jun 2, 2013
12,076
4,949
Good contract.

Not too much money for Capitals. Dmitri Orlov gets his chance to shine, and propably got what he wanted. Chance to stay away from Las Vegas -franchise that's going to be terrible for few years, and especially to stay away from George McPhee who treated him like trash when he requested a trade.
 

RandyHolt

Keep truckin'
Nov 3, 2006
34,639
6,800
Is the Russian D that bad that he is easily a top pair?

I watched a little of the faux Olympics and he seemed fine vs tough comp. But its not what we see, it's what world class coaches know.
 

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