One Way To Right The Ship

[mukluks]

Disclaimer - this is not a reaction to losing one game, rather my take on the team's trajectory over the last several years AND the way I believe this team needs to be built going forward.

To start with a quick look at the team's performance (rank) in a few key statistical categories since the 2006/7 season. A few stats never tell the whole story but do provide indicators of performance and direction.

Season Pts GF GA PP% PK% SF SA Total
2006/7 1 10 2 21 6 1 1 42
2007/8 1 3 1 3 8 1 1 18
2008/9 3 1 21 1 25 1 2 54
2009/10 11 14 7 9 10 2 9 62
2010/11 6 2 23 5 17 2 16 71
2011/12 9 7 7 22 18 5 3 71

The total simply illustrates the team rank against the league as a total, lots of flaws in doing it this way but it does show a downward overall trend. At this season's end I would strongly suggest the total will be higher again (worse).

There are a myriad of reasons for the decline, #1 of which is it is virtually impossible to maintain the excellence the wings have over the last 20 years for ever and that success = low draft position. In addition in a capped league we do not have the luxury of buying talent.

Which brings me to my suggestion for going forward.

Given That:

1. We have the best group of prospects in the system since the 90's.
2. There does not appear to be any quick fixes (free agents/trades) to our d corp issues.
3. Our elite players are past their prime.
4. While our prospect pool is very solid there does not appear to be any truly elite players in the pipeline.
5. There is a good chance of missing the playoffs this year and next or at best squeaking in and getting eliminated in the 1st/2nd round.
6. We can no longer buy our way to a good team.
7. We have some good to very good young players currently in or ready to be in the lineup.

I suggest we do the following:

1. Decide to rebuild with a goal of being an elite, cup contenting team in 4-5 years "The Goal".
2. Decide what kind of team gives us the best chance of winning and build that identity via player acquisition as well as dropping current players/prospects that do not fit that identity.
3. Identify core group of players going forward that support above goal.
4. Identify current players/prospects that can be traded for picks/players that support above goal.
5. Finish in the bottom 5-10 for the next 1-3 years by design (largely as a result of roster transition) to position team to draft the elite talent needed to accomplish above goal.

I would aim to mimic the 2007/2008 formula, which in my mind was a puck possession team that had enough "grit" to play a rougher game when need be. The caveat being that we won't have a top 5 all time dman (lidstrom) in the lineup so a premium should be placed on overall team size and speed to counteract the loss of skill.

I would keep these current roster players to support the goal;
Zetterberg, Flip, Helm, Tootoo, Abs, Kronwall, Ericsson, Smith, Howard

I would trade these current roster players to support the goal (good return)
Datsyuk, Franzen,

I would trade, buyout, demote or keep as placeholders these current roster players to support the goal (low return if anything)
Everyone else

Prospects would be kept or traded as needed, but there appears to be a good depth of forwards and dmen without any clear #1 forwards or dmen. Mrazek looks like a #1 goalie.

This results in a 2013/14 Lineup of:

Nyquist/Z/Trade,FA (Horton, Perry or preferably younger top six via trade)
Flip/Jarnkrok/Tatar
Trade,FA/Helm/Tootoo (Preferably big body, defense first 3rd line staple)
Abs/Sheahan/Ferraro

Kronwall/Ericsson
Trade,FA/smith (Stay at home, defensive dman)
CC/Lashoff

Leads to Contending lineup in 2017 or so of:

Nyquist/Jarnkrok/? (Big goal scorer)
?/Flip/Tatar (Big goal scorer)
Z/Helm/? (Big, fast defense first)
Abs/Sheahan/Ferrro

+ any combination of current prospects that turn out, acquisitions or high future picks that are blue chip.

oullet/sproul
Backman/Jensen
kronwall/Ericsson

+ any combination of current prospects that turn out, acquisitions or high future picks that are blue chip.


I am not claiming that the prospects listed in the above lineup will be good nhl'ers for sure but it is certainly a possibility. I am not attempting to rank our prospects here, just a scenario for future lineups.

If we can acquire a true #1 dman and a true top 3 forward via trade or draft I think the 2017 lineup looks very good. There are no guarantees to this of course, there is inherent risk to any strategy.

* Dats is my favourite player but also commands the best return if traded to a contender THIS year.

Click to read more...

 

[A1Portable]

I generally agree with your approach.

A huge preliminary step is for the Wings to acknowledge, privately of course, that this team is not a contender and COMMIT themselves to an all-out rebuilding process. What Holland has been doing for the past few seasons is nibbling around the edges, and that won't get the Wings back in contention for a championship.

Also, I think Jurco will be part of the nucleus of the next championship Wings team.

 

[RedWingsNow*]

We don't need a full rebuild.
We cans till turn this ship around.
Right now, trade Quincey + Flip + Prospect for a legit right-handed defenseman who can play a two way game (with some toughness).

And then we need to get serious.

You want to know why Babcock was pissed off the SJ got Burns? Because good, mobile, two-way Righthanded D are rare. (one reason why Sproul and Marchenko are very valuable assets and why a guy like Wisniewksi was sought after)

But who's out there?

 

[Flowah]

We don't need a full rebuild.
We cans till turn this ship around.
Right now, trade Quincey + Flip + Prospect for a legit right-handed defenseman who can play a two way game (with some toughness).

As much as I like Flip, if it means getting rid of Q, I'm all for it. Oh, we'd get a good d-man back? Hell I'll make that trade every day and twice on Sunday.

 

[RedWingsNow*]

I'm not for trading Datsyuk AT ALL.

Datsyuk. Zetterberg. Two guys I will not move. Anyone else is expendable, IMO.

In a previous thread I listed core guys vs non-core guys.
The Wings have never had such a small core.

 

[mindfly]

We don't need a full rebuild.
We cans till turn this ship around.
Right now, trade Quincey + Flip + Prospect for a legit right-handed defenseman who can play a two way game (with some toughness).

And then we need to get serious.

You want to know why Babcock was pissed off the SJ got Burns? Because good, mobile, two-way Righthanded D are rare. (one reason why Sproul and Marchenko are very valuable assets and why a guy like Wisniewksi was sought after)

But who's out there?

What's with your obssession with players being right-handed?

 

[VampOfVegas]

I'm a right handed Dman.. put me in coach.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

We don't need a full rebuild.
We cans till turn this ship around.
Right now, trade Quincey + Flip + Prospect for a legit right-handed defenseman who can play a two way game (with some toughness).

And then we need to get serious.

You want to know why Babcock was pissed off the SJ got Burns? Because good, mobile, two-way Righthanded D are rare.(one reason why Sproul and Marchenko are very valuable assets and why a guy like Wisniewksi was sought after)

But who's out there?

Brent Burns doesn't apply to that statement, he is an awful turnover machine that would have given up at least two more breakaways last night to make the score 8-0.

If Datsyuk will not sign an extension this summer, he needs to be traded, his return would be pretty large for a playoff run and another season.

 

[RedWingsNow*]

What's with your obssession with players being right-handed?

Ever played defense before on the off wing?
It's great for shooting in the offensive zone.

It's not so great trying to cycle it around the boards and clear it out. It's also not great trying to keep the line along the boards.

 

[RedWingsNow*]

Brent Burns doesn't apply to that statement, he is an awful turnover machine that would have given up at least two more breakaways last night to make the score 8-0.

If Datsyuk will not sign an extension this summer, he needs to be traded, his return would be pretty large for a playoff run and another season.

LOL
Whatever. Babcock was pissed about Burns for a reason.
I would literally take Burns over any Red Wings defenseman. I'd pause on Kronwall... but only for a second.

 

[RayMoonDoh]

I'm not for trading Datsyuk AT ALL.

Datsyuk. Zetterberg. Two guys I will not move. Anyone else is expendable, IMO.

In a previous thread I listed core guys vs non-core guys.
The Wings have never had such a small core.

Do you think we can win a cup before one or both leaves the team?

If the answer is no, then you seriously consider trading them for young talent to pair with whatever young talent you already have. And that means losing this over-ripe philosophy too.

 

[mukluks]

We don't need a full rebuild.
We cans till turn this ship around.
Right now, trade Quincey + Flip + Prospect for a legit right-handed defenseman who can play a two way game (with some toughness).

And then we need to get serious.

You want to know why Babcock was pissed off the SJ got Burns? Because good, mobile, two-way Righthanded D are rare. (one reason why Sproul and Marchenko are very valuable assets and why a guy like Wisniewksi was sought after)

But who's out there?

The problem is, and why I suggest a rebuild is that;

a) who is out there?
b) Detroit is not a top tier destination anymore, this is not to say no one wants to play here but that we have come back down to earth in this respect.
c) Good players generally are getting locked up now, intense competition for those that do hit FA, Holland is right - parity makes many things harder, signing FA's included.
d) We cannot count on getting lucky with another Datsyuk or Zetterberg again, thus we have to have the opportunity to draft some blue chippers = some short suckage and rebuild.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

1. send cleary to the minors, bring up Nyquist, let cleary, miller and white walk at seasons end
2. trade for a middle pairing stay-at-home dman(regher)
3. bring up tatar and let him play on the 3rd line
4. make an offer sheet to subban or benn, its a tool to use so use it, time to try something unexpected
5. keep our first round pick
6. be aggressive in the trade market, building from the backend out, dont be afraid to see if anyone has interest in franzen
7. go all out on July5th, target one guy and go hard and dont be overbid if he is your true #1 target

franzen-datsyuk-nyquist
filppula-zetts-brunner
tatar-helm-sammy
tootoo-abdelkader-bertuzzi
miller

 

[ricky0034]

b) Detroit is not a top tier destination anymore, this is not to say no one wants to play here but that we have come back down to earth in this respect.

based on what exactly?

 

[fimoknete]

if you wanna get the cup in 5 years you dont need datsyuk and zetterberg. so trade them and 15 other player.
if you wanna win now trade only 15 other player.
detroit is just stuck because of the missing new blood since 2008. and no, samuelsson is not fresh blood.
i dont see how we can compensate 5 years of miss management. but maybe there is a new miracle out there.
our history is a bit missleading. just throw in prospects and the convert into yzermans, fedorovs, datsyuks and zetterbergs is not always working. i saw to many new so called top6 player and super talents already ending up in europe. i cant hear this complaining about not playing tartar, nyquist etc. maybe they dont play because they are not that good as anyone here believes?
i dont even see any one of our prospects as a top 6 or top 2 player.
but maybe they proof me wrong. you can not just do a rebuilt based on the fact you have young player. they have to be young and good. and thats what i dont believe.
i give detroit 2-3 more years in slow decline. then will come the even bigger decline.

 

[mukluks]

based on what exactly?

The fact that we are not a cup contender each year any longer, no Lidstrom, aging core, Michigan economics, etc. I am not saying this as fact but as factors I think players consider.

Granted there is little proof yet but we certainly haven't landed any significant FA's lately to disproof the theory either.

 

[fimoknete]

based on what exactly?

we landed what top fa during the last 4 years?

 

[8snake]

In the context of this season what does "right the ship" mean? Playoff contention. Cup contention? The Wings are nowhere near an elite team. They will be hard pressed to make the playoffs. This has been a gradual decent into mediocrity culminating with what probably will be the worst season Detroit has had in 20+ years. There aren't any quick fixes. This team is a bad mix of slow, soft and a lack of sjkill to compensate for not having the first two. The way the league is set up now you can't rely on the UFA market. The process of getting Detroit back among the elite will take years, and it might take longer than even the most pessimistic of us want to predict.

 

[mukluks]

1. send cleary to the minors, bring up Nyquist, let cleary, miller and white walk at seasons end
2. trade for a middle pairing stay-at-home dman(regher)
3. bring up tatar and let him play on the 3rd line
4. make an offer sheet to subban or benn, its a tool to use so use it, time to try something unexpected
5. keep our first round pick
6. be aggressive in the trade market, building from the backend out, dont be afraid to see if anyone has interest in franzen
7. go all out on July5th, target one guy and go hard and dont be overbid if he is your true #1 target

franzen-datsyuk-nyquist
filppula-zetts-brunner
tatar-helm-sammy
tootoo-abdelkader-bertuzzi
miller

Who do you target to help the defense as Regher is not going to fix this mess on his own.
p.s. I like Regher as a 4-5 guy to play with Smith.

 

[ricky0034]

we landed what top fa during the last 4 years?

which have we even seriously gone after other than Suter?

 

[sully6one]

Nothing drastic in terms of roster moves will happen until after next season when more stupid contracts expire (Bertuzzi, Samuelsson, Quincey, Colaiacovo, Eaves). That's when I feel we can bring up Sheahan full time, maybe Ferraro, Jarnkrok, and hopefully get tougher on the backend. Scuderi and Murray are two I'd love to have for a couple years until we get someone else.

 

[Iowa Wingsfan]

4. make an offer sheet to subban or benn, its a tool to use so use it, time to try something unexpected
5. keep our first round pick

How are you going to keep the 1st round pick by making an offer sheet? Those two will both get contracts over 5 mil meaning you will have to give up more then just the 1st rounder.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

How are you going to keep the 1st round pick by making an offer sheet? Those two will both get contracts over 5 mil meaning you will have to give up more then just the 1st rounder.

Sorry I should have said that was ok if it lands one of those two.

 

[Moatorious]

Lets not forget we need to resign Flip, Howard, Smith, and maybe Brunner after this season.

...and to be realistic Holland will sign Cleary for another 2 years at 2 mil per.

 

[ForsbergForever]

So assuming a big FA signing is needed, who's the target?

http://www.capgeek.com/free-agents/

Best of the bunch is Semin, Iginla, Getzlaf and Perry...Semin isn't exactly a typical Wings kinda guy, Iginla is getting old and Perry and Getzlaf will be fiercely fought over if they aren't already re-signed by Anaheim. There seems to be no star d-men available so trade is the only route to go on that front.