Prospect Info: Olli Juolevi, Pt. VI

[4Twenty]

Yes But Bouchard was given more offensive minutes. I can't find the article, but there was one that broke it down and someone had posted it on CDC forum.

What? They were on the same pairing getting the plum offensive minutes two years in a row.

And frankly this idea that that a team that the London Knights fell off the face of a cliff year over year is one of the silliest lies permeated around here. The Knights were still one of the very best teams in the OHL the following year and fell from top team in the league scoring wise down to 3rd.

These constantly regurgitated falsities is why the Juolevi thread has had so many iterations.

 

[krutovsdonut]

Thinking back to the draft and all the hype in the first year or so afterwards, it's crazy how totally off target all the media (and especially the team itself) was for what Juolevi's skillset and playstyle was. He has never been a Tanev type, never been a stay at home steady type. That was how he was hyped, as this cerebral modern stay at home dman while his actual game was as an offensive puck moving PP specialist. Like who actually watched him and thought "hey this kid is like Hampus Lindholm"

i think the chl thing and the scandinavian thing together created mixed unrealistic expectations.

he was projected at the draft as an all rounder dman with elite hockey iq, elite passing, good potential size and a full tool box with no evident weaknesses. people put that together with scandinavian origins and came up with lidstrom 2.0 as their hope. however, because he was in the chl people also expected a fast nhl debut, ignoring the fact that many if not most elite all rounder scandinavian dmen (to which he was being implicitly compared) did not start in the nhl until years after they were draft eligible.

thus he had the impossible expectations of being a fast track lidstrom 2.0 style player placed upon him. there has never been such a creature. the scandinavian all rounder dudes who have arrived here as nearly fully formed impact players have primarily been 21 or older.

the reality is he was scouted as a precocious tall skinny green as grass kid during a single season of chl play as a 17 year old and has since suffered unduly for every fault under the relentless critical scrutiny of an impatient rabid major canadian city fan group rendered even more impatient and snarky by bad news on all fronts for their team.

and then he had the temerity to not fill out quickly, even though he has continued to show all the qualities for which he was drafted.

and then he got injured.

in the end, it is really simple. maybe the guy is and always will be a phillip larsson who simply cannot handle the physical contact of the nhl and that will manifest itself in injuries or shy play.

or maybe he will fill out and be able to figure out how to take a hit. in which case, all signs indicate he's going to be a great dman.

 

[CherryToke]

Thinking back to the draft and all the hype in the first year or so afterwards, it's crazy how totally off target all the media (and especially the team itself) was for what Juolevi's skillset and playstyle was. He has never been a Tanev type, never been a stay at home steady type. That was how he was hyped, as this cerebral modern stay at home dman while his actual game was as an offensive puck moving PP specialist. Like who actually watched him and thought "hey this kid is like Hampus Lindholm"

Jeff Marek was the worst for that. And he was big time pushing for the Canucks to pick the great Julouvi over MT.. . I still hate him for it.

 

[Upoil]

yes, that is deliberate. i was using that example to show the other poster the fallacy in his argument. he was mistakenly claiming i could not say something was overdue without committing the gambler's fallacy. i used a syntactically parallel example unrelated to the topic to illustrate that he was wrong.

Keep living in your fantasy land there Chief. You seem to think that your unrelated analogies somehow makes you right. You aren't. You very obviously committed the gambler's fallacy (more than once!) and it's laughable that you can't come to terms with that. Numerous people tried to explain to you how you are wrong and you double down on being wrong.

It's actually amazing how obstinate you are about this. It's okay to be wrong and acknowledge it; some people go as far to say this is a good quality.

Either way - Mea Culpa for engaging you in this fruitless effort and wasting my time.

Looking forward to reading your last word on this and curious what outlandish off-topic analogy you will use to [MOD]

 

[bobbyb2009]

i think the chl thing and the scandinavian thing together created mixed unrealistic expectations.

he was projected at the draft as an all rounder dman with elite hockey iq, elite passing, good potential size and a full tool box with no evident weaknesses. people put that together with scandinavian origins and came up with lidstrom 2.0 as their hope. however, because he was in the chl people also expected a fast nhl debut, ignoring the fact that many if not most elite all rounder scandinavian dmen (to which he was being implicitly compared) did not start in the nhl until years after they were draft eligible.

thus he had the impossible expectations of being a fast track lidstrom 2.0 style player placed upon him. there has never been such a creature. the scandinavian all rounder dudes who have arrived here as nearly fully formed impact players have primarily been 21 or older.

the reality is he was scouted as a precocious tall skinny green as grass kid during a single season of chl play as a 17 year old and has since suffered unduly for every fault under the relentless critical scrutiny of an impatient rabid major canadian city fan group rendered even more impatient and snarky by bad news on all fronts for their team.

and then he had the temerity to not fill out quickly, even though he has continued to show all the qualities for which he was drafted.

and then he got injured.

in the end, it is really simple. maybe the guy is and always will be a phillip larsson who simply cannot handle the physical contact of the nhl and that will manifest itself in injuries or shy play.

or maybe he will fill out and be able to figure out how to take a hit. in which case, all signs indicate he's going to be a great dman.

My problem in evaluating this is that my experience in sport is when a teammate of mine was "shy" of contact or Phillip Larson SOFT, they almost never can find a way out of that. I think being tough enough is maybe the hardest thing to change in a player. If you don't like contact and shy away from it, you are almost always soft, no matter how much you fill out.

We will see just how "shy" he is and just how soft he is once he is healthy and stronger, but all indications seem to point to a guy who does not like Junior or AHL contact, never mind NHL contact.

 

[krutovsdonut]

Keep living in your fantasy land there Chief. You seem to think that your unrelated analogies somehow makes you right. You aren't. You very obviously committed the gambler's fallacy (more than once!) and it's laughable that you can't come to terms with that. Numerous people tried to explain to you how you are wrong and you double down on being wrong.

It's actually amazing how obstinate you are about this. It's okay to be wrong and acknowledge it; some people go as far to say this is a good quality.

Either way - Mea Culpa for engaging you in this fruitless effort and wasting my time.

Looking forward to reading your last word on this and curious what outlandish off-topic analogy you will use to [MOD].

well since you invite me to reply all i can say is i am afraid i still think you're dead wrong and i am right. since you have forgotten to make any actual substantive arguments to the contrary, i don't feel any need to elaborate on what i have said previously in support of my viewpoint, but i do invite you to go read what i have said in earlier posts again with an open mind and let me know if you have any actual thoughts that bear on the discussion.

in the mean time, by all means do keep the petty insults and patronizing comments coming. they certainly do a good job of signalling to the world the kind of clever, intellectually superior and reasonable fellow you are. well done.

 

[racerjoe]

well since you invite me to reply all i can say is i am afraid i still think you're dead wrong and i am right. since you have forgotten to make any actual substantive arguments to the contrary, i don't feel any need to elaborate on what i have said previously in support of my viewpoint, but i do invite you to go read what i have said in earlier posts again with an open mind and let me know if you have any actual thoughts that bear on the discussion.

in the mean time, by all means do keep the petty insults and patronizing comments coming. they certainly do a good job of signalling to the world the kind of clever, intellectually superior and reasonable fellow you are. well done.

Here....

This is exactly what you are trying to do.

 

[krutovsdonut]

My problem in evaluating this is that my experience in sport is when a teammate of mine was "shy" of contact or Phillip Larson SOFT, they almost never can find a way out of that. I think being tough enough is maybe the hardest thing to change in a player. If you don't like contact and shy away from it, you are almost always soft, no matter how much you fill out.

We will see just how "shy" he is and just how soft he is once he is healthy and stronger, but all indications seem to point to a guy who does not like Junior or AHL contact, never mind NHL contact.

yeah, i agree. that is definitely my main concern with juolevi. he has looked horrific at two training camps precisely because he was shy. i can cut him slack for the first camp i saw due to age but it requires a bit of a leap of faith to ascribe the issues at the last camp to recovery from the back injury. if that play actually fairly reflected his state of development he's at very high risk of busting completely out of the nhl.

but i honestly didn't see the same issues in the limited ahl time i watched (bits of games). he looked to be managing the contact a little better and at least in the play. we do have the say so of bad goalie and ms that he was so terrible in the ahl in a watching of all those 12 games that ecen allowing for coming off injury and finding his feet in a new league, he basically needs to be written off. but i prefer to see that myself.

there are also variations on shy. phillip larson is not necessarily shy, he just cannot take a hit without being destroyed because he is a very skinny light dude. he was absolutely determined to find a way to play around that in the nhl and gave it every effort and, although he failed, i don't think it was for lack of courage so much as not being built for the league. if juolevi is shy like larson he might be able to bulk up enough to overcome it. if he is shy in the old fashioned sense of the yips, then yeah i think that is hard to fix and he's probably doomed.

 

[krutovsdonut]

Here....

This is exactly what you are trying to do.

no it is not. and if you have an actual argument that answers what i have said, you should make it. otherwise, there is an internet term for what you are doing.

 

[F A N]

Here....

This is exactly what you are trying to do.

Never bet against the streak!

 

[racerjoe]

 

[racerjoe]

Never bet against the streak!

Its my lucky dye...

 

[Hit the post]

Never bet against the streak!

 

[Krnuckfan]

i think the chl thing and the scandinavian thing together created mixed unrealistic expectations.

he was projected at the draft as an all rounder dman with elite hockey iq, elite passing, good potential size and a full tool box with no evident weaknesses. people put that together with scandinavian origins and came up with lidstrom 2.0 as their hope. however, because he was in the chl people also expected a fast nhl debut, ignoring the fact that many if not most elite all rounder scandinavian dmen (to which he was being implicitly compared) did not start in the nhl until years after they were draft eligible.

thus he had the impossible expectations of being a fast track lidstrom 2.0 style player placed upon him. there has never been such a creature.
the reality is he was scouted as a precocious tall skinny green as grass kid during a single season of chl play as a 17 year old and has since suffered unduly for every fault under the relentless critical scrutiny of an impatient rabid major canadian city fan group rendered even more impatient and snarky by bad news on all fronts for their team.

and then he had the temerity to not fill out quickly, even though he has continued to show all the qualities for which he was drafted.

and then he got injured.

in the end, it is really simple. maybe the guy is and always will be a phillip larsson who simply cannot handle the physical contact of the nhl and that will manifest itself in injuries or shy play.

or maybe he will fill out and be able to figure out how to take a hit. in which case, all signs indicate he's going to be a great dman.

You're misinformed as usual. The idea of scandinavian dmen arriving later is yet another myth.

Here's a list of every single scandinavian defencemen drafted in the top 10 of the draft in the last 15 years or so

Victor hedman d+1
OEl d+2
Adam Larsson d+1
Jonas Brodin d+2
Hampus Lindholm d+2
Rasmus Ristolainen d+1
Olli Juolevi d+?
Miro Heiskanen d+2
Rasmus Dahlin d+1
Adam Boquist d+?

Not a single one of these players except Juolevi took more than their d+2 season to crack the NHL. Juolevi was getting turnstiled by echl players in prospect training camp in the start of his d+2 season

 

[F A N]

You're misinformed as usual. The idea of scandinavian dmen arriving later is yet another myth.

Here's a list of every single scandinavian defencemen drafted in the top 10 of the draft in the last 15 years or so

Victor hedman d+1
OEl d+2
Adam Larsson d+1
Jonas Brodin d+2
Hampus Lindholm d+2
Rasmus Ristolainen d+1
Olli Juolevi d+?
Miro Heiskanen d+2
Rasmus Dahlin d+1
Adam Boquist d+?

Not a single one of these players except Juolevi took more than their d+2 season to crack the NHL. Juolevi was getting turnstiled by echl players in prospect training camp in the start of his d+2 season

To be fair, that list ranged in quality. Hedman was no where near Dahlin level as a rookie.

 

[krutovsdonut]

You're misinformed as usual. The idea of scandinavian dmen arriving later is yet another myth.

Here's a list of every single scandinavian defencemen drafted in the top 10 of the draft in the last 15 years or so

Victor hedman d+1
OEl d+2
Adam Larsson d+1
Jonas Brodin d+2
Hampus Lindholm d+2
Rasmus Ristolainen d+1
Olli Juolevi d+?
Miro Heiskanen d+2
Rasmus Dahlin d+1
Adam Boquist d+?

Not a single one of these players except Juolevi took more than their d+2 season to crack the NHL. Juolevi was getting turnstiled by echl players in prospect training camp in the start of his d+2 season

um, wow. how to be polite. it is hard.

is that a list of "elite all rounder scandinavian dmen (to which he was being implicitly compared)" when juolevi was drafted?

or is that a list only of top scandinavian draft picks?

because those are not the same thing.

i mean you have guys who weren't even drafted when juolevi was taken on your list. it would seem you took the time to bold what i said but you didn't bother to actually read it before charging off to rehash the same tired @MS talking point. yes, we already know that juolevi is an outlier among top draft picks, scandinavian or otherwise. we've talked about it to death. try to keep up.

fwiw, i would agree that oel was a comparison for juolevi when he was drafted and maybe lindholm to a somewhat limited degree. nobody else on your list though.

 

[MS]

um, wow. how to be polite. it is hard.

is that a list of "elite all rounder scandinavian dmen (to which he was being implicitly compared)" when juolevi was drafted?

or is that a list only of top scandinavian draft picks?

because those are not the same thing.

i mean you have guys who weren't even drafted when juolevi was taken on your list. it would seem you took the time to bold what i said but you didn't bother to actually read it before charging off to rehash the same tired @MS talking point. yes, we already know that juolevi is an outlier among top draft picks, scandinavian or otherwise. we've talked about it to death. try to keep up.

fwiw, i would agree that oel was a comparison for juolevi when he was drafted and maybe lindholm to a somewhat limited degree. nobody else on your list though.

What on earth are you talking about?

If Benning - or anyone - thought Juolevi would take 3+ years at the time he was drafted, he should have been fired on the spot. You do not take projects with top-5 picks, ever.

However, that isn't what Benning thought. Benning thought he was basically ready to step in, aside from needing to bulk up a bit. If he had a big offseason, Benning thought he could be ready in 16-17. Otherwise, the expectation was that he'd be a regular in 17-18, just like the rest of the players in the list you were given.

 

[MS]

And for the record, in 2016, I agreed with that assessment from Benning.

In the 16-17 season, however, it became very obvious that that assessment was very, very wrong, and that this player was a much worse prospect then originally thought once separated from the elite players he was constantly on the ice with for Finland/London.

 

[ChilliBilly]

so you'll just throw out an appeal to authority and scoot?

I want to talk hockey, not statistics is all.

 

[krutovsdonut]

I want to talk hockey, not statistics is all.

[MOD] i am not committing the gambler's fallacy. if you read the reasonable discussion in this thread that has occurred and you truly do understand the subject you will see that is so.

 

[Johnny Canucker]

What on earth are you talking about?

If Benning - or anyone - thought Juolevi would take 3+ years at the time he was drafted, he should have been fired on the spot. You do not take projects with top-5 picks, ever.

However, that isn't what Benning thought. Benning thought he was basically ready to step in, aside from needing to bulk up a bit. If he had a big offseason, Benning thought he could be ready in 16-17. Otherwise, the expectation was that he'd be a regular in 17-18, just like the rest of the players in the list you were given.

I know this is a message board but I wish we could all agree OJ was a terrible pick at 5 overall. In a redraft he probably goes in 3rd round. If we get 100 nhl games out of him at this point , we should be happy.

Close thread.

 

[lousy]

I know this is a message board but I wish we could all agree OJ was a terrible pick at 5 overall. In a redraft he probably goes in 3rd round. If we get 100 nhl games out of him at this point , we should be happy.

Close thread.

I am pretty sure most people here think he was the wrong choice at this point. And hopefully most of us are still rooting for the guy. Despite all the bickering

 

[pgj98m3]

why don't you explain to him politely why he is wrong if you have a superior knowledge of the subject? why the snark? i have noticed there are some people in this discussion who obviously do understand statistics who have been very helpful in advancing the discussion with topical explanations. conversely, there seem to be plenty who assert knowledge but only as a way to patronize and condescend to the other poster. it's almost as if those posters are just trying to silence opposing ideas rather than advance the discussion.

We are talking about the most basic concepts in statistics. When people with [MOD] say something fundamentally wrong directing them to acquire some knowledge seems appropriate.....polite enough for you???

 

[Melvin]

“We haven’t drafted a defenseman in the first round in eleven years, so we liked the players that went ahead of us, but we just felt that at five, if we could get a high-end defenseman, a guy that we think is going to be a top-pairing defenseman it served us good to keep adding to our depth on the back end,” Benning said.

“He’s got the hockey sense to step in play,” [Benning] said. “The pace of the NHL game is not going to affect him. He needs to get physically stronger. He’s almost 6’3” and is 183 pounds right now, so if he has a good summer and adds strength to his frame, because he’s so smart and reads the play so well, he could come in and not look out of place.”

--- Jim Benning, 2016

Jim Benning on Juolevi: “There was no rush to get it done. We were in communication with his representatives and we wanted to make sure we did a deal that he felt comfortable with and we felt comfortable with. He’s going to be an important player for us for a long time so it’s an exciting day for our fans. He’s a very intelligent hockey player, he’s smart and reads the play well. I think he’ll look good at camp. We don’t want to rush Olli, but it’s his physical strength that he needs to work on.”

Jim Benning: “He can’t [go to Finland or Sweden], it’s against the CBA that the NHL has with the CHL. He signed a contract to play in London. He didn’t have an existing contract with Jokerit that would apply to him. If he doesn’t play with us in the NHL, he’s going back to his junior team in London.”​

 

[Melvin]

Evidence that Jim Benning drafted OJ because of positional need and felt that only his physical strength was preventing him from stepping in and playing: Everything that Jim Benning said in 2016.

Evidence that OlLi WaS AlWayS a ProjEcT: *tumble-weed*

Occam's Razer: The explanation that requires the fewest fabrications is most likely to be the correct one.