Prospect Info: Olli Juolevi, Pt. VI

[krutovsdonut]

What a load of garbage this post is. Hedman made the NHL right away after his draft year. In his d+2 year he averaged 21:01 of icetime second among defencemen on the TBL.

Most dmen drafted high in the draft make the NHL by their d+2 season. The ones that don't generally turn out to be busts with a couple of exceptions. Get a clue about how elite prospects develop instead of regurgitating tired old cliches like "dmen develop slower!!!"

but those annoying couple of exceptions get in the way, along with the question of tiny sample size, not to mention a myriad of non-random factors for which you have not and cannot adjust.

and you have no stats for how 19 year old dmen tend to do after they start scoring ppg in the liiga?

because it hasn't actually happened before.

i do recall what happened when 21 year matthias ohlund joined the canucks though. he didn't seem to be a busted pick and i wouldn't trade him for tkachuk.

those darned exceptions.

 

[Wo Yorfat]

Perhaps, yep. I can see logical arguments for Dmen taking longer. I feel like ive seen it statistically debunked but im not certain.

 

[RobertKron]

That's a great analogy. I mean, it's not like Juolevi is 19 years old or anything.

And we all know that defensemen usually only take a few months, maybe a year tops, to fully develop and showcase their full potential. For instance, Duncan Keith, Zdeno Chara, Ryan Suter, Brent Burns, Victor Hedman, and Mark Giordano all made instant impacts on their team and were all Calder candidates right out of the gate. In fact, I don't think anyone questioned Victor Hedman's development curve at all. He was an instant sensation.

Lol.

Suter would have likely been in the NHL at 19 had it not been locked out.

Brent Burns wasn't even drafted as a defenseman, you weirdo.

As has been already pointed out, Hedman went straight to the NHL.

All those other guys were later picks, and Giordano wasn't even drafted, so no shit it took them longer to establish themselves.

You don't pick a long-term project at 5OA. If you're suggesting that this is what Benning did, then you're basically calling him an idiot.

 

[krutovsdonut]

Perhaps, yep. I can see logical arguments for Dmen taking longer. I feel like ive seen it statistically debunked but im not certain.

the argument is that the very top dmen draft picks tend to enter the league just as fast as the top forwards. conversely a lot of very top dmen picks who do not enter the league by d+2 tend to bust.

we had a long debate about this a while back. kids mature at different rates between 17-20. i think a lot of top drafted dmen are 18 year old kids who mature early and the stats above reflect "busts" who matured early and looked better than their peers at 18 but then never progressed. my view is that juolevi is not a conventional high pick. he was clearly not physically ready when drafted and was drafted for skills and projectable frame. thus you need to be patient and not rely on overall dmen stats that assess players at totally different levels of physical maturity with different skills sets.

the polite counter to this is that in that case he was a reach. the dismissive answer is that stats are infallible and benning sucks essentially because top picks like jared cowen made the nhl d+1 and juolevi did not.

 

[Catamarca Livin]

Nice Juolevi is scoring. He has had periods of good production before. He did not look very close to making Canucks so fans are right to be cautious. However it is possible that his training affected him early on negatively and he has in fact improved greatly over last year. He is what 7 months older than Petterson? So him having 13 points in 15 games is quite impressive. If he could run a pp with Boeser on one side Petterson on the other Horvat down low and perhaps Goldobin in middle slot his offense could surprise. If he can pass and get a shot through traffic it would be a huge upgrade on Edler. Not that this team could not use Tkachuk or Keller but our d prospect pool is almost non existent. If we did not have Juolievi we would be looking to draft a player just like him. Every draft has multiple forwards who succeed from early to mid first round dman seem to miss more often hopefully that is not the case here. If he becomes top 3 dman I am not too concerned about Keller or Tkachuk as we have seen the cost of getting a top 3 dman is a Tkachuk level winger. The issue is will Juolevi become a top 3 dman? He needs to get a lot better and no one knows if he will or not but he was below the trend line so continual progress is needed

 

[RobertKron]

but those annoying couple of exceptions get in the way, along with the question of tiny sample size, not to mention a myriad of non-random factors for which you have not and cannot adjust.

and you have no stats for how 19 year old dmen tend to do after they start scoring ppg in the liiga?

because it hasn't actually happened before.

i do recall what happened when 21 year matthias ohlund joined the canucks though. he didn't seem to be a busted pick and i wouldn't trade him for tkachuk.

those darned exceptions.

Ohlund stayed over because they couldn't agree on a contract. The Canucks wanted him in the NHL. Juolevi is under contract and the team doesn't want him on the NHL squad. These are very different situations.

 

[CanaFan]

but those annoying couple of exceptions get in the way, along with the question of tiny sample size, not to mention a myriad of non-random factors for which you have not and cannot adjust.

and you have no stats for how 19 year old dmen tend to do after they start scoring ppg in the liiga?

because it hasn't actually happened before.

i do recall what happened when 21 year matthias ohlund joined the canucks though. he didn't seem to be a busted pick and i wouldn't trade him for tkachuk.

those darned exceptions.

No doubt exceptions exist but that you even call them exceptions pretty much debunks the “defensemen take longer” argument.

More accurately you can say “some high drafted defensemen take longer but most don’t”.

 

[Ryan Miller*]

So did Juolevi have a good game today? How far back into the thread do I have to go to find that out?

This board reads like a high school debate club 20 year reunion.

 

[Wo Yorfat]

Crap, honest discussion is essentially impossible at this point on the board. Back to stupid gifs for me!

 

[krutovsdonut]

No doubt exceptions exist but that you even call them exceptions pretty much debunks the “defensemen take longer” argument.

More accurately you can say “some high drafted defensemen take longer but most don’t”.

that's fine. i would actually say "defencemen take longer except for most of the high draft position defencemen".

i think there are some additional refinements that could follow, but one step at a time.

 

[krutovsdonut]

Ohlund stayed over because they couldn't agree on a contract. The Canucks wanted him in the NHL. Juolevi is under contract and the team doesn't want him on the NHL squad. These are very different situations.

i don't specifically remember that. i do recall we couldn't sign him for several years.

 

[RobertKron]

So did Juolevi have a good game today? How far back into the thread do I have to go to find that out?

This board reads like a high school debate club 20 year reunion.

Yep, awful. Better stop posting, right?

 

[RobertKron]

i don't specifically remember that. i do recall we couldn't sign him for several years.

I remember at least one intermission interview where they talked about how they had hoped to get him over.

IIRC, he only ended up coming over after the team matched an offer sheet from the Leafs.

 

[krutovsdonut]

I remember at least one intermission interview where they talked about how they had hoped to get him over.

IIRC, he only ended up coming over after the team matched an offer sheet from the Leafs.

yes the leafs offer sheeted him. my recollection is he would not sign and come over because he wanted to develop in sweden. i don't know that we were going to throw him in the nhl if he came over. i could be wrong but i don't think throwing an 18 or 19 year old dman into the nhl in the mid90s was even a thing.

 

[krutovsdonut]

yep, it was a thing

 

[CanaFan]

that's fine. i would actually say "defencemen take longer except for most of the high draft position defencemen".

i think there are some additional refinements that could follow, but one step at a time.

Take longer than what though? Similarly drafted forwards? I’m not even sure that is true tbh. Make an impact at the NHL level (vs just “making” the NHL)? That one seems more likely to me.

 

[RobertKron]

yes the leafs offer sheeted him. my recollection is he would not sign and come over because he wanted to develop in sweden. i don't know that we were going to throw him in the nhl if he came over. i could be wrong but i don't think throwing an 18 or 19 year old dman into the nhl in the mid90s was even a thing.

This is a fair point. I can only go off what I remember the team and those around it saying at the time, but who knows how it would have actually played out in reality.

That said, him being in Sweden is still a very different situation than Juolevi's, where the team has control of him and has sent him off. Ohlund was a really very high end prospect coming into the NHL. Some of that gets forgotten a bit because his eye injury so heavily changed his path.

 

[CanaFan]

yep, it was a thing

Tverdovsky, Jovo, Berard, Aki-Berg, Pronger, Hamrlik, Kasparaitis off the top of my head played in their 18 or 19 year old season. Highly drafted players have always graduated quickly in all eras. Now I’m not sure I’d categorize Ohlund (13th) as “drafted high”.

 

[RobertKron]

Tverdovsky, Jovo, Berard, Aki-Berg, Pronger, Hamrlik, Kasparaitus off the top of my head played in their 18 or 19 year old season. Highly drafted players have always graduated quickly in all eras. Now I’m not sure I’d categorize Ohlund (13th) as “drafted high”.

Yeah, most top pick defensemen played in the NHL at 18 or 19. Most of the guys who didn't ended up as the type of player that you say "oh, wow, I forgot he was a top-10 pick" when you notice where they were drafted.

 

[y2kcanucks]

Tverdovsky, Jovo, Berard, Aki-Berg, Pronger, Hamrlik, Kasparaitis off the top of my head played in their 18 or 19 year old season. Highly drafted players have always graduated quickly in all eras. Now I’m not sure I’d categorize Ohlund (13th) as “drafted high”.

Players drafted later generally have holes in their game and need the extra development time. Most don't make it. Some do, and some end up becoming very successful, but that requires a flawed player to be developed. Top 5 picks shouldn't have the same holes in their game as 2nd rounders or later (or even late 1st round picks), and thus shouldn't need as much development time. And as we've seen, the successful ones don't.

 

[RobertKron]

Players drafted later generally have holes in their game and need the extra development time. Most don't make it. Some do, and some end up becoming very successful, but that requires a flawed player to be developed. Top 5 picks shouldn't have the same holes in their game as 2nd rounders or later (or even late 1st round picks), and thus shouldn't need as much development time. And as we've seen, the successful ones don't.

I'd cut this off more at like, completely off the top of my head without thinking about it, 10-15ish. Mid round, you're still going to get players who do a few things so well, or so badly that it's assumed that they'll take a minute to get there, but if they ever get there then they'll be a steal.

Then again, wasn't there that bit from before the draft where Benning said that Juolevi was NHL-ready ASAP?

 

[y2kcanucks]

I'd cut this off more at like, completely off the top of my head without thinking about it, 10-15ish. Mid round, you're still going to get players who do a few things so well, or so badly that it's assumed that they'll take a minute to get there, but if they ever get there then they'll be a steal.

Then again, wasn't there that bit from before the draft where Benning said that Juolevi was NHL-ready ASAP?

I'd be interested if someone could dig up that quote. I really hope that exists.

 

[RobertKron]

I'd be interested if someone could dig up that quote. I really hope that exists.

IIRC, it was posted on here shortly before the board switched over.

 

[Ryan Miller*]

IIRC, it was posted on here shortly before the board switched over.

Oh good it's a fact then, like San Jose offering a 1st rounder for Miller (lol) and McCann scoring last night.

 

[Peter10]

I'd cut this off more at like, completely off the top of my head without thinking about it, 10-15ish. Mid round, you're still going to get players who do a few things so well, or so badly that it's assumed that they'll take a minute to get there, but if they ever get there then they'll be a steal.

Then again, wasn't there that bit from before the draft where Benning said that Juolevi was NHL-ready ASAP?

This is the best i could find on that topic:

Jason Botchford: In Juolevi, Canucks got their d-man, if not their main man

“He has the hockey sense to step in and play,” Benning said. “He needs to get physically stronger though. Because he’s so smart he could come in and not look out of place.”

And to be fair, every piece I found from Benning in regards to Juolevi (at least around 2016ish) mentioned that he probably isnt ready from a physical point of you.