Defensemen, where do they come from?
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Note: if you don't like data, please scroll past this post. I won't be talking about Juolevi's edge work or compete level in Utica. Just keep scrolling*
Let's look at this another way.
I have 165 defenders drafted in the first round who ended up playing 500 NHL games (I think a reasonable baseline for some0ne who is a solid, regular NHLer for several years, no?)
Here is how the 165 "successful" defenders breakdown:
* 35% were basically full time NHL players right off the bat, playing a full season in their D+1. This includes everyone from Drew Doughty to our current GM James Elmer Benning.
* 9% Played some games in their D+1 and then were basically full time after that. Scott Niedermayer, Rostislsav Klesla.
* 5% Played a partial season in their D+1 and their D+2 and then were full-time D+3. Say hello, Alex Pietrangelo and Drake Berehowsky.
* 14% Did not play in their D+1 but played a basically a full NHL season in their D+2. This includes everyone from Erik Karlsson to Michael del Zotto.
* 10% Did not play D1, Partial Season in D2, Full Season in D3 . Darryl Sydor, Karl Alzner.
* 4% Skipped D1 and got just a partial season in both their D2 and D3. What else do Ken Daneyko and John Van Boxmeer have in common?
* 8% Did not play in either their D+1 or D+2 but got a full D+3. This is the Ryan Suter-Dion Phaneuf group.
Finally, there is one dude who got a partial season in all of his D1, D2 and D3. His name is David Shaw.
( Keep scrolling guys, the sick edge-work posts are yonder )
So that's about 85% of the players who would go on to play 500 NHL games would have been pretty much getting NHL games by now.
So there are two paths remaining to Olli:
* 9% Did not play through D2 but played some of their D3. This, I think is where we want to find Olli Juolevi at this point. This is "Nick Boynton/Barret Jackman"
* Finally, 5% of our players did not get any games through their D+3 and still made it to 500 NHL games. As mentioned in my previous post, these are mostly NCAA guys and Jeff Beukeboom. And Canuck legend Mattias Ohlund.
So, in conclusion, I think that people who like to judge from historical trends are correct to be concerned that Olli has yet to play any NHL games. The canard that "defensemen take a long time" is not well-supported by the historical evidence, as roughly 50% of the eventual successful players got at least 1 game in their D+1 and basically 70% of them got some games by their D2. If Olli can't crack the NHL lineup at any point this season he is most likely either an extreme historical outlier or a bust.
Here is a pie chart for all you visualists (I hate you.)
(OK you can stop scrolling now.)