Prospect Info: Olli Juolevi, Pt. III | Off to Juo-tica

[WetcoastOrca]

Makes me wonder why if skating is an issue why he hasn’t worked more on it. I’d like to see him dedicate himself to it like Horvat did. Maybe he’s had other issues to work on and is improving in other areas like offense?
He’s still quite young so hopefully we see him take another step next year with improved skating.

 

[Intangibos]

I'm not upset with how he's seemed to progress this year but this is still absolutely the most optimal option.

Would love to flip him in some kind of griffin Reinhart like trade.

Please don't give Benning any bright ideas on acquiring Griffin Reinhart

 

[Hodgy]

and?

Context is crucial. Its meaningless to analyze statistics in isolation. This is simple stuff lawrence.

Lol, apparently it's a bad thing that he does well in whichever level he is placed in. Juolevi should just quit hockey, because he is doing well as a 20 year old in the AHL as a rookie, it means nothing because he is in his d+3 year. Pardon me, I forgot that a players development is perfectly linear.

Actually, he doesn't do well in any level he is placed. He did terribly at the NHL level (at an age where is successful piers were doing well). I'm not sure why it is an issue that posters point out that he isn't developing well compared to historically successful similar picks. Its like I have said before, no one is claiming that Juolevi can't have a rare or unforeseeable path to being an impact player in the NHL. Its certainly possible, just like it was possible for AHL career player Tim Thomas to be a Vezina calibre goalie in his 30s. I guess you would have been super critical of anyone that pointed out ten years ago that Tim Thomas was probably just a career AHL player?`

Thomas Chabot 20 year old AHL numbers:
13GP 2G 5A -7PTS minus 10 vs Juolevi
20 year old AHL numbers:13 GP 1G 8A -9 PTS minus 8

Chabot progressed well each year after being drafted. He was clearly on the right track. Juolevi didn't. He arguably regressed in his draft plus one season, and reports were pretty conflicting regarding his draft plus two season. So the two are not all that comparable, but I concede that there are some similarities. As others pointed out, Chabot went on to play most of his draft plus three season in the NHL scoring at a 0.5 point per game clip. If Juolevi ends up doing that, then I think most of his critics will acknowledge that he is back on the right track.

 

[Melvin]

Defensemen, where do they come from?

*Note: if you don't like data, please scroll past this post. I won't be talking about Juolevi's edge work or compete level in Utica. Just keep scrolling*

Let's look at this another way.

I have 165 defenders drafted in the first round who ended up playing 500 NHL games (I think a reasonable baseline for some0ne who is a solid, regular NHLer for several years, no?)

Here is how the 165 "successful" defenders breakdown:
* 35% were basically full time NHL players right off the bat, playing a full season in their D+1. This includes everyone from Drew Doughty to our current GM James Elmer Benning.
* 9% Played some games in their D+1 and then were basically full time after that. Scott Niedermayer, Rostislsav Klesla.
* 5% Played a partial season in their D+1 and their D+2 and then were full-time D+3. Say hello, Alex Pietrangelo and Drake Berehowsky.
* 14% Did not play in their D+1 but played a basically a full NHL season in their D+2. This includes everyone from Erik Karlsson to Michael del Zotto.
* 10% Did not play D1, Partial Season in D2, Full Season in D3 . Darryl Sydor, Karl Alzner.
* 4% Skipped D1 and got just a partial season in both their D2 and D3. What else do Ken Daneyko and John Van Boxmeer have in common?
* 8% Did not play in either their D+1 or D+2 but got a full D+3. This is the Ryan Suter-Dion Phaneuf group.
Finally, there is one dude who got a partial season in all of his D1, D2 and D3. His name is David Shaw.

( Keep scrolling guys, the sick edge-work posts are yonder )

So that's about 85% of the players who would go on to play 500 NHL games would have been pretty much getting NHL games by now.

So there are two paths remaining to Olli:

* 9% Did not play through D2 but played some of their D3. This, I think is where we want to find Olli Juolevi at this point. This is "Nick Boynton/Barret Jackman"
* Finally, 5% of our players did not get any games through their D+3 and still made it to 500 NHL games. As mentioned in my previous post, these are mostly NCAA guys and Jeff Beukeboom. And Canuck legend Mattias Ohlund.

So, in conclusion, I think that people who like to judge from historical trends are correct to be concerned that Olli has yet to play any NHL games. The canard that "defensemen take a long time" is not well-supported by the historical evidence, as roughly 50% of the eventual successful players got at least 1 game in their D+1 and basically 70% of them got some games by their D2. If Olli can't crack the NHL lineup at any point this season he is most likely either an extreme historical outlier or a bust.

Here is a pie chart for all you visualists (I hate you.)

(OK you can stop scrolling now.)

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

Would anyone here be on board with trading him for a similar level defence prospect such as Morin, Bean, Fleury, etc.? I don’t watch those prospects enough to know if they’re worth it, but there is some merit to trading Juolevi while his NHL value is unknown but he has progresssed fairly well in the AHL.

 

[Melvin]

Would anyone here be on board with trading him for a similar level defence prospect such as Morin, Bean, Fleury, etc.? I don’t watch those prospects enough to know if they’re worth it, but there is some merit to trading Juolevi while his NHL value is unknown but he has progresssed fairly well in the AHL.

I would only be interested in trading him for a pick or a younger player.

 

[sting101]

numbers are cool and definitely appreciate the data to support a argument that has a stronger position and likelihood.

You just have to ask yourself if what you have seen is enough to believe in it or not?

 

[Svencouver]

I am literally on my knees begging Juolevi to save us from Pouliot

 

[Diamonddog01]

Another two assists last night. Now leads the AHL in defenceman rookie points.

 

[M2Beezy]

Hmmmm pretty intriguing year so far, looks like is gonna make a lotta us eat crow

 

[xtra]

While getting assists and points are good and you can’t take it away from him, my question is he the driving force that’s creating the points?

From what I’ve seen he’s been getting secondary assists which have come off the power play where he throws it to a forward who makes a move and actually creates the scoring Opportunity, almost a replaceable part on the power play. I could be wrong as I haven’t seen all his points but that’s a question for the Utica based posters.

 

[MS]

His passing is elite at the AHL level and there's no question he can pile up PP points at that level, and would probably be our best PP option right now.

Defensively, he would be absolutely eviscerated at this level right now.

 

[lawrence]

What the ****?

Please reply again or edit your post with the bit that makes you think I don't want to see Juolevi do well. I want to address it because I certainly don't mean that, but I genuinely have no idea what part of that post you're referring to so I'll need a little help.

Post 969. It’s pretty obvious what your trying to say.

 

[Knight53]

While getting assists and points are good and you can’t take it away from him, my question is he the driving force that’s creating the points?

From what I’ve seen he’s been getting secondary assists which have come off the power play where he throws it to a forward who makes a move and actually creates the scoring Opportunity, almost a replaceable part on the power play. I could be wrong as I haven’t seen all his points but that’s a question for the Utica based posters.

From the last game, he makes a beautiful pass from his own zone to Dahlen in full stride, who goes and passes it to MacEwen for the goal. The goal doesn't happen without that breakout pass.

Tying goal doesn't happen if Juolevi doesn't make the pinch and pressure causing the turnover on the Gadjovich goal.

Vision/Passing/IQ/transition play are all elite with this player. Perfect for how the NHL game today and will be a boost to our high end forwards. Right now best Powerplay quarterback between Canucks/Utica. Has a deceptive wrist shot that gets to the net often and his passes are tape to tape, crisp and clean, easy for the forwards. Trent Cull says he wants to work with him(assuming defensive zone coverage) and create the best player possible before he gets the call-up.

 

[Intangibos]

Post 969. It’s pretty obvious what your trying to say.

Maybe you could spell it out? What I'm trying to say is that 3 of the next 4 picks are already very good players in the NHL and the other is outperforming Juolevi in the AHL.

What about this statement is incorrect or is suggesting "I don't want to see Juolevi do well".

You said it, please back it up.

 

[lawrence]

Maybe you could spell it out? What I'm trying to say is that 3 of the next 4 picks are already very good players in the NHL and the other is outperforming Juolevi in the AHL.

What about this statement is incorrect or is suggesting "I don't want to see Juolevi do well".

You said it, please back it up.

What exactly is the point of talking about that now? We’ve already done that for 2 years. No matter what you do, the pick will not be re done, so what is exactly your point of bringing up the fact we could have drafted 3 other guys ?

 

[Intangibos]

What exactly is the point of talking about that now? We’ve already done that for 2 years. No matter what you do, the pick will not be re done, so what is exactly your point of bringing up the fact we could have drafted 3 other guys ?

Are you joking? Someone asked me about it. I was clarifying that despite tracking well it doesn't mean Juolevi isn't going to be an NHLer, it's that he looks bad in comparison. Someone asked who picked after him are that good. I answered and you chimed in with absolute nonsense and have refused to back it up at all.

You've gone from "It was clear what you were trying to say" in a post that says nothing even remotely close to what you claimed, and now you've shifted to "what is the point of bringing it up?"

Are you going to admit that your original reply made no sense or are you going to come up with yet another way to change the subject?

 

[Melvin]

Are you joking? Someone asked me about it. I was clarifying that despite tracking well it doesn't mean Juolevi isn't going to be an NHLer, it's that he looks bad in comparison. Someone asked who picked after him are that good. I answered and you chimed in with absolute nonsense and have refused to back it up at all.

You've gone from "It was clear what you were trying to say" in a post that says nothing even remotely close to what you claimed, and now you've shifted to "what is the point of bringing it up?"

Are you going to admit that your original reply made no sense or are you going to come up with yet another way to change the subject?

I bet you can guess. And I don't even know to whom you are talking.

 

[topched88]

He should stay in Utica all year and have a cup of coffee for the last 10 games or so. Honestly, I’m fairly happy with his year. I’ve accepted he wasn’t the right pick and moved on. When I saw he had back surgery I was hopeful he was going to be able to have any type of decent season.

 

[VanJack]

I get the fact that some posters and Utica watchers are disappointed with his passivity in the d-zone and how he sometimes gets turnstyled in the netural zone. But his passing skills are already at the NHL level. And come on. As erratic as he's been, surely he's a better option than Del Zotto.

But if some posters are determined to deal him. How about a trade of two under-performing Fins? Juolevi for Puljujarvi?

 

[CherryToke]

I get the fact that some posters and Utica watchers are disappointed with his passivity in the d-zone and how he sometimes gets turnstyled in the netural zone. But his passing skills are already at the NHL level. And come on. As erratic as he's been, surely he's a better option than Del Zotto.

But if some posters are determined to deal him. How about a trade of two under-performing Fins? Juolevi for Puljujarvi?

No way. Juolevi has a better PPG in the AHL..

 

[kanuck87]

I get the fact that some posters and Utica watchers are disappointed with his passivity in the d-zone and how he sometimes gets turnstyled in the netural zone. But his passing skills are already at the NHL level. And come on. As erratic as he's been, surely he's a better option than Del Zotto.

But if some posters are determined to deal him. How about a trade of two under-performing Fins? Juolevi for Puljujarvi?

Not for Puljujarvi, but would do it for someone like Vesalainen.

 

[Jyrki21]

Here are some fun facts.

There have been about 94 defenders drafted in the first round who did not play any NHL games through their D+3 (which, to be fair, does not yet include OJ.)

Of these:

36 (38%) did not or have not yet played any NHL games (most recent being Jakub Zboril, who obviously still could.)
29 (31%) played or have played a few NHL games, but fewer than a full season worth (Haydn Fleury is in this group.)

That leaves about a third who managed a 100+ NHL game career, although this includes guys like David Hale, Mark Fistric, and Jeff Woywitka.

I'd say overall there are about 7 solid, regular NHL, name-recognition-calibre guys out of the 94 players, and I am including in that 7 our dear friend Keith Ballard.

He didn't make your list because he played 5 NHL games in his D+3, but I keep thinking of Aaron Ward as kind of the extreme late bloomer. 5th overall in 1991, and he didn't make the NHL aside from two cups of coffee until 1996-97. I'm sure that's extremely rare, but at least the example is out there, as he did eventually play over 800 NHL games. Never put up a lot of points, but he was less offensive than Juolevi from the get-go.

 

[Melvin]

He didn't make your list because he played 5 NHL games in his D+3, but I keep thinking of Aaron Ward as kind of the extreme late bloomer. 5th overall in 1991, and he didn't make the NHL aside from two cups of coffee until 1996-97. I'm sure that's extremely rare, but at least the example is out there, as he did eventually play over 800 NHL games. Never put up a lot of points, but he was less offensive than Juolevi from the get-go.

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