Speculation: Oilers off season targets

[Blueston]

Ceci is serviceable and cheap while Foegele is decent dept but a little overpaid and only has 1 year left. Broberg is a guy that might take awhile to fully hit his stride but could be a solid NHLer for a long time.

Thanks. That was my read too.

 

[ManByng]

I doubt that we will see a goalie trade so I'm going with RD and RW.

I think this is about all the Oilers will do unless they add kids like Lavoie and/or Bourgault as well?

 

[McTonyBrar]

Konecny and Seeler

I know

 

[guymez]

To Do List:

1. Simplify own zone defending system to better suit this team's personnel. Dump complex d and forward switches which too often lead d-men chasing out of home plate defending and gaps in high danger scoring areas as forwards/d miss their switch.

2. I look at Vegas (& St. Louis Cup team) model of big defenders and their layered approach to making it harder for other teams to score focusing on defending high quality scoring areas.

3. I keep coming back to Parayko as a good complement for Nurse with size, great skating ability and two-way defending ability, Cup experience and established shutdown play against elites. Highly durable the past 2 years since the back injury. Team high minutes overall, but also in EV, 5 V 5, second in 4x5 PK. Great playoff run last season as top pair shutdown against Colorado's elites. Cratered season this year along with a St. Louis team that finally hit the wall tilting a veteran team into rebuild/retool sell-off. There weren't really any players unscathed.

https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/st-louis-blues/featured/grading-the-2022-23-st-louis-blues

"This year's Parayko was a shell of that player. Parayko, who played in 79 games and averaged 23:00 minutes per game this season, saw his offensive numbers dip to 27 points (four goals, 23 assists) after putting up 35 points in 80 games last year, usually covers it up with his defensive play. He did lead the team with 144 blocked shots, but too often his coverage laxed, whether it be breakouts or in-zone coverage. Parayko was a minus-19 and was 15th on the team with an OPS of 0.7, but he did produce slightly better from a DPS standpoint at 1.8, which was best among d-men and tied with Buchnevich for fourth-best on the team. Parayko had the third-most giveaways with 49, but he was second-best behind Thomas' 67 with 59 takeaways, and a lot of those good numbers came towards the end of the season when Parayko was playing much better. And Parayko didn't have effective numbers in Corsi-for (45.1 percent) and Fenwick-for (45.1 percent). Parayko was a plus-1 over his final 22 games and played some of his best hockey when the talk of trade leading into the March 3 deadline subsided."

The Oilers don't need to add another high point producer d-man. Bouchard and Ekholm will have the top pair role and former to play point on the PP. Having a high end second pair with Nurse Parayko is like a 1B pair with size, elite skating and two-way game could be a formidable shutdown pair within a simplified, more structured system to defend home base. All four have elite size and complementing games that would form the backbone of a true elite defending corp. Versatile enough to also support through rotation, if needed, a cheap inexperienced third pair of Broberg Desharnais (assuming Broberg wasn't part of the package to get Parayko).

Such a trade has a degree of risk. Have to get retention ($500,000) similar to Ekholm deal. But this is about building up the longstanding weak link backbone position with this team. Boldness is required and a smarter own zone defending scheme and a final elite d piece are necessary to move the Oil into true elite Cup contender real estate... especially with the goaltending they have locked themselves into.

I like Parayko a lot but there is an argument to be made that its not without significant risk.
I am not convinced that he has played enough hockey (at his former high level) to suggest that his back issues are behind him. (no pun intended...lol)

I was also curious about your comment on the defensive scheme. How did you arrive at the conclusion that there are D/Forward switches taking place?
On many of the views I had of the defensive scheme it looked more to me like a man to man coverage which Vegas exploited by running the puck carrier through the low slot which activated an Oilers Dman. That Dman then followed the puck carrier everywhere including up to the blue line which left a forward defending down low. Poor defending ensued and a high quality Vegas scoring chance followed. Thats not to say that there wasnt some switching happening at times that I may have just flat out missed.
I am curious to know the specifics in terms of what you were seeing.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

I like Parayko a lot but there is an argument to be made that its not without significant risk.
I am not convinced that he has played enough hockey (at his former high level) to suggest that his back issues are behind him. (no pun intended...lol)

I was also curious about your comment on the defensive scheme. How did you arrive at the conclusion that there are D/Forward switches taking place?
On many of the views I had of the defensive scheme it looked more to me like a man to man coverage which Vegas exploited by running the puck carrier through the low slot which activated an Oilers Dman. That Dman then followed the puck carrier everywhere including up to the blue line which left a forward defending down low. Poor defending ensued and a high quality Vegas scoring chance followed. Thats not to say that there wasnt some switching happening at times that I may have just flat out missed.
I am curious to know the specifics in terms of what you were seeing.

Significant work has to be done to determine and feel complete confidence in Parayko's game before any deal could potentially made. I've got several posts in the Trade Rumours thread about the questions I would want to know and would discuss with MacTavish as one source who was with the player day to day this season. One point I'll make about his health again, Parayko has played 171 of 176 total games averaging 23:34 the season following injury; 25:24 in their twelve game playoff series that season (against the Avalanche elites) and 23 minutes last year. Durable, top team minutes and an EV strength workhorse. Interesting splits this past season between his road numbers and home which are eye opening. See that thread for more details.

The most obvious example of the Oil d/forward switches is the Whitecloud goal where Nurse chases to the Oilers blue line (inexplicably) into Foegele's coverage area (a completely harmless area of the ice). Foegele can't switch off to cover the man and gaping space left by Nurse which leaves Whitecloud to go down Broadway breezing unimpeded into a high danger scoring which he then buries a well placed kill shot. Zero need for Nurse to chase a nothing, harmless play to the Oilers blue line.

I've posted this clip several times which shows the Oilers many self inflicted breakdowns including D-men extending and chasing forwards past the hash marks which opens seams in high danger areas and often coverage confusion with the Oiler forwards; flooding and over committing in home base coverage which leaves two Knights on the door step for an easy tap-in goal.

The Oilers play an aggressive offensive game that leaves them vulnerable with own zone coverage. Simplify the defensive coverage to play d tighter and more disciplined in home plate defending. Minimize d and forward switches which often create confusion and create high danger opportunities against. The Nurse and Ceci pair are the worst at chasing opposition forwards and through this aggressive play too often creates seams in high danger areas when poor communications and connectedness between d and forward coverage breaks down.

Playfair when he coached the Oilers d believed strongly that defenders should stick to their side of the ice with their own zone defending. Under Woodcroft too often we see defensemen roam all over the ice to aggressively defend in low percentage areas on the ice. All that does is create openings in high danger places on the ice with forward coverage chasing to support. Under Woodcroft this team needs to create more consistency and certainty within their defending systems. It was so apparent that Vegas personnel were much more disciplined in their own zone defending and well drilled to play instinctively within their system structure. It was likely the major deciding factor in the series imo.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

What would you offer? Broberg and ?

Not as much as a Blues fan would want.

Priority 1, deep dive into Parayko's health and assessment about his game and prospective, perceived drop-off.

The player holds his future in his hands with the no-trade protection. He'll call his shot so that likely takes a large swath of prospective teams out of bidding. Why would Parayko leave to a rebuild situation and what realistic contenders might he waive to go to and have the assets to make a deal. One attractive destination might be his hometown now in its winning window.

Armstrong is challenged with his three veteran big ticket D-men (age 32, 31, 30) all have long term remaining. How badly does Armstrong want to move one and which players are amenable to waiving their cozy no movement clauses? Will he retain salary on a deal ($500,000 - $1 million) to get a very long-term contract off the books - that might enhance a trade package. Not a lot of leverage for Armstrong if he wants to shave salary on defense and re-distribute it or save bucks at this reload phase of organization.

If I'm the Oilers and all of this due diligence checks out and opt to take on the age 30 d-man and all associated risks of a big ticket contract until 2029-30 it's a 2024 first round pick and and short-term remaining functional players(s) to make the money work with money that can either come off the books early (ie. Yamamoto $3.1 mill or Foegele $3.75 and a d-man Ceci $3.25 x 2 years or Kulak $2.75 x 3) or flipped. Skin some retaining dollars on the crazy length of Parayko and maybe a prospect asset or additional pick added (not Broberg or Holloway).

This is a high risk high reward scenario. Oilers would not buy high in the situation imo. I'm a big advocate for a Parayko Nurse pairing to be a great shutdown pair. But the Blues have little leverage and other options might have less risk.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Konecny and Seeler

I know

Seeler makes no sense unless we are moving Kulak out IMO.

 

[Blueston]

Not as much as a Blues fan would want.

Priority 1, deep dive into Parayko's health and assessment about his game and prospective, perceived drop-off.

The player holds his future in his hands with the no-trade protection. He'll call his shot so that likely takes a large swath of prospective teams out of bidding. Why would Parayko leave to a rebuild situation and what realistic contenders might he waive to go to and have the assets to make a deal. One attractive destination might be his hometown now in its winning window.

Armstrong is challenged with his three veteran big ticket D-men (age 32, 31, 30) all have long term remaining. How badly does Armstrong want to move one and which players are amenable to waiving their cozy no movement clauses? Will he retain salary on a deal ($500,000 - $1 million) to get a very long-term contract off the books - that might enhance a trade package. Not a lot of leverage for Armstrong if he wants to shave salary on defense and re-distribute it or save bucks at this reload phase of organization.

If I'm the Oilers and all of this due diligence checks out and opt to take on the age 30 d-man and all associated risks of a big ticket contract until 2029-30 it's a 2024 first round pick and and short-term remaining functional players(s) to make the money work with money that can either come off the books early (ie. Yamamoto $3.1 mill or Foegele $3.75 and a d-man Ceci $3.25 x 2 years or Kulak $2.75 x 3) or flipped. Skin some retaining dollars on the crazy length of Parayko and maybe a prospect asset or additional pick added (not Broberg or Holloway).

This is a high risk high reward scenario. Oilers would not buy high in the situation imo. I'm a big advocate for a Parayko Nurse pairing to be a great shutdown pair. But the Blues have little leverage and other options might have less risk.

I don’t see that getting it done. Is going to be lots of demand for Parayko. Unlikely we would retain on him (too much term for that). Would need back at least one perceived prime asset. Severson just signed similar contract and blues would rightfully I think consider Parayko more valuable player.

as to his health, he hasn’t missed any real time since he returned from his injury. Gets toughest usage in league and holds his own. he had rough stretches last season, but our whole team was garbage. There are still few if any better one on one defenders in the league. The only reasons we would train him are that his remaining prime doesn’t really line up with our contending window.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

I don’t see that getting it done. Is going to be lots of demand for Parayko. Unlikely we would retain on him (too much term for that). Would need back at least one perceived prime asset. Severson just signed similar contract and blues would rightfully I think consider Parayko more valuable player.

as to his health, he hasn’t missed any real time since he returned from his injury. Gets toughest usage in league and holds his own. he had rough stretches last season, but our whole team was garbage. There are still few if any better one on one defenders in the league. The only reasons we would train him are that his remaining prime doesn’t really line up with our contending window.

I think the trade market is limited for Parayko and the other 2 big ticket Blues d options. They all hold control with NMC. That's a challenging spot for GM Armstrong if, as stated, he wants to cut cost or re-distribute cap dollars with the team re-tooling or possibly re-building..

Severson was a UFA so flipping a 3rd is reasonable to lock him in. C-Bus who apparently inquired about Parayko opted for younger, durable Provorov for a 1st and 2nd pick & secured 30% multi-year retention. The Provorov trade and Ekholm's (1st, prospect, functional NHL player Barrie and $500,000 multi-year retention) give a pretty good framework for such a future deal.

I've advocated Parayko for two years as a final finishing piece to give the Oilers an elite deep and diverse Cup level blue line. And that's acknowledging the high risk questions about health, erosion of game, and an absolute killer long-term money deal that extends to the player's twilight years. I think Parayko would answer all concerns but add all up I don't see an NHL team overpaying for him. And with no trade protection, Parayko will determine if/where he goes. His hometown and an open winning window conceivable should be an attractive option.

 

[guymez]

Significant work has to be done to determine and feel complete confidence in Parayko's game before any deal could potentially made. I've got several posts in the Trade Rumours thread about the questions I would want to know and would discuss with MacTavish as one source who was with the player day to day this season. One point I'll make about his health again, Parayko has played 171 of 176 total games averaging 23:34 the season following injury; 25:24 in their twelve game playoff series that season (against the Avalanche elites) and 23 minutes last year. Durable, top team minutes and an EV strength workhorse. Interesting splits this past season between his road numbers and home which are eye opening. See that thread for more details.

The most obvious example of the Oil d/forward switches is the Whitecloud goal where Nurse chases to the Oilers blue line (inexplicably) into Foegele's coverage area (a completely harmless area of the ice). Foegele can't switch off to cover the man and gaping space left by Nurse which leaves Whitecloud to go down Broadway breezing unimpeded into a high danger scoring which he then buries a well placed kill shot. Zero need for Nurse to chase a nothing, harmless play to the Oilers blue line.

I've posted this clip several times which shows the Oilers many self inflicted breakdowns including D-men extending and chasing forwards past the hash marks which opens seams in high danger areas and often coverage confusion with the Oiler forwards; flooding and over committing in home base coverage which leaves two Knights on the door step for an easy tap-in goal.

The Oilers play an aggressive offensive game that leaves them vulnerable with own zone coverage. Simplify the defensive coverage to play d tighter and more disciplined in home plate defending. Minimize d and forward switches which often create confusion and create high danger opportunities against. The Nurse and Ceci pair are the worst at chasing opposition forwards and through this aggressive play too often creates seams in high danger areas when poor communications and connectedness between d and forward coverage breaks down.

Playfair when he coached the Oilers d believed strongly that defenders should stick to their side of the ice with their own zone defending. Under Woodcroft too often we see defensemen roam all over the ice to aggressively defend in low percentage areas on the ice. All that does is create openings in high danger places on the ice with forward coverage chasing to support. Under Woodcroft this team needs to create more consistency and certainty within their defending systems. It was so apparent that Vegas personnel were much more disciplined in their own zone defending and well drilled to play instinctively within their system structure. It was likely the major deciding factor in the series imo.

Thanks for taking the time to post that.
So much puck watching/puck chasing in their own zone. Not sound defensive hockey at all.
Watching that just reminds me of how much work Draisaitl has to put into his game. He looks lazy/confused in the D zone far too often. I dont know if his shifts are too long or whats going on there but he just isnt nearly disciplined enough on D.

In terms of switching between the D and the forwards...there werent any examples of that in the videos but there was a play where RNH let a Vegas player go and Driasiatl should have picked him up. Now I dont know if Nuges job was actually to stay with that player or to hand him off to Draisaitl...its not clear to me. That being said of all the goals against I did watch it looked to me like it was primarily man to man and its likely that Nuge shouldnt have handed off the Vegas player...he should have stayed with him.

Its painful to watch the Oilers dmen (and forwards) skate all over the place continuously chasing (the Oilers player is not in between the Vegas player and the net) and puck watching instead of being more aware and protecting a zone. I hope that someone interviews Woody and asks him exactly what the defenisve strategy is because Woodys system is either too confusing for some of the players or they just dont have the where with all to play proper defence.
I mean I will start with Nurse and Ceci...they simply do not have the chops to be an effective #1 pairing on a legit Stanley Cup contending team IMO.

 

[Soundwave]

Thanks for taking the time to post that.
So much puck watching/puck chasing in their own zone. Not sound defensive hockey at all.
Watching that just reminds me of how much work Draisaitl has to put into his game. He looks lazy/confused in the D zone far too often. I dont know if his shifts are too long or whats going on there but he just isnt nearly disciplined enough on D.

In terms of switching between the D and the forwards...there werent any examples of that in the videos but there was a play where RNH let a Vegas player go and Driasiatl should have picked him up. Now I dont know if Nuges job was actually to stay with that player or to hand him off to Draisaitl...its not clear to me. That being said of all the goals against I did watch it looked to me like it was primarily man to man and its likely that Nuge shouldnt have handed off the Vegas player...he should have stayed with him.

Its painful to watch the Oilers dmen (and forwards) skate all over the place following Vegas players instead of protecting a zone. I hope that someone interviews Woody and asks him exactly what the defenisve strategy is because Woodys system is either too confusing for some of the players or they just dont have the where with all to play proper defence.
I mean I will start with Nurse and Ceci...they simply do not have the chops to be an effective #1 pairing IMO.

The Oilers system (defensive zone coverage) is the two wingers play a zone, so they cover the points basically.

The remaining three players (2 D + center) are supposed to play 3-on-3 man to man coverage where they pick up a man and then just stick with their man.

The problem (well one of them) with this set up is you stick with your man no matter what, so if you're a D and your man skates to say the blue line ... you are supposed to follow them. Guess what the problem with this is though.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Thanks for taking the time to post that.
So much puck watching/puck chasing in their own zone. Not sound defensive hockey at all.
Watching that just reminds me of how much work Draisaitl has to put into his game. He looks lazy/confused in the D zone far too often. I dont know if his shifts are too long or whats going on there but he just isnt nearly disciplined enough on D.

In terms of switching between the D and the forwards...there werent any examples of that in the videos but there was a play where RNH let a Vegas player go and Driasiatl should have picked him up. Now I dont know if Nuges job was actually to stay with that player or to hand him off to Draisaitl...its not clear to me. That being said of all the goals against I did watch it looked to me like it was primarily man to man and its likely that Nuge shouldnt have handed off the Vegas player...he should have stayed with him.

Its painful to watch the Oilers dmen (and forwards) skate all over the place following Vegas players instead of protecting a zone. I hope that someone interviews Woody and asks him exactly what the defenisve strategy is because Woodys system is either too confusing for some of the players or they just dont have the where with all to play proper defence.
I mean I will start with Nurse and Ceci...they simply do not have the chops to be an effective #1 pairing IMO.

The Whitecloud goal highlight is best example of an ill-conceived switch that didn't happen. Nurse chasing a non-threat to the blue line and leaves Foegele hanging in what should be a switch to cover but no communication. Oilers get picked apart too frequently with current zone coverage when needless over aggressive d extend to opposition into low scoring areas and resulting poor communication and connectedness with team defending support. Oil are built for a quick strike attack. Simplify own zone defending beginning with tight, discipline home plate defending by d-men and mitigate high speed, confusion with complex switches for this forward group. All must also work way harder and smarter to mitigate high danger scoring chances.

Nurse needs to be more disciplined and simplify and structure his own zone defending. Needs a high end complementing veteran d-partner to help heavy lifting and strong, smart defending. Parayko I believe would be a perfect fit for Nurse and to deliver a 1B pairing to augment its first pair, Ekholm and Bouchard.

Fyi here are the Parayko splits I mentioned in my other post:

His season's +/- splits down as -20 October - January and +2 February - April. Pretty wild swing again on a team with a -38 goal share. So a pretty dramatic swing happened before garbage time.

- Why was Parayko's game splits so different between road, 2G 16A 20 PTS +4 and home, 0G 7A 7PTS -23? Playing the most toi, why was this player able to keep his head above water on the road (where there's less match up control) vs home on a team that cratered to a -38 goal share.

Vegas won with a better, deeper d-corp and well oiled defensive structure that extended from smarter positional play to fueling transition offence to skilled forwards. Cassidy's systems and coaching were better. They better insulated a shared soft weakness of questionable goaltending.

 

[bellagiobob]

Significant work has to be done to determine and feel complete confidence in Parayko's game before any deal could potentially made. I've got several posts in the Trade Rumours thread about the questions I would want to know and would discuss with MacTavish as one source who was with the player day to day this season. One point I'll make about his health again, Parayko has played 171 of 176 total games averaging 23:34 the season following injury; 25:24 in their twelve game playoff series that season (against the Avalanche elites) and 23 minutes last year. Durable, top team minutes and an EV strength workhorse. Interesting splits this past season between his road numbers and home which are eye opening. See that thread for more details.

The most obvious example of the Oil d/forward switches is the Whitecloud goal where Nurse chases to the Oilers blue line (inexplicably) into Foegele's coverage area (a completely harmless area of the ice). Foegele can't switch off to cover the man and gaping space left by Nurse which leaves Whitecloud to go down Broadway breezing unimpeded into a high danger scoring which he then buries a well placed kill shot. Zero need for Nurse to chase a nothing, harmless play to the Oilers blue line.

I've posted this clip several times which shows the Oilers many self inflicted breakdowns including D-men extending and chasing forwards past the hash marks which opens seams in high danger areas and often coverage confusion with the Oiler forwards; flooding and over committing in home base coverage which leaves two Knights on the door step for an easy tap-in goal.

The Oilers play an aggressive offensive game that leaves them vulnerable with own zone coverage. Simplify the defensive coverage to play d tighter and more disciplined in home plate defending. Minimize d and forward switches which often create confusion and create high danger opportunities against. The Nurse and Ceci pair are the worst at chasing opposition forwards and through this aggressive play too often creates seams in high danger areas when poor communications and connectedness between d and forward coverage breaks down.

Playfair when he coached the Oilers d believed strongly that defenders should stick to their side of the ice with their own zone defending. Under Woodcroft too often we see defensemen roam all over the ice to aggressively defend in low percentage areas on the ice. All that does is create openings in high danger places on the ice with forward coverage chasing to support. Under Woodcroft this team needs to create more consistency and certainty within their defending systems. It was so apparent that Vegas personnel were much more disciplined in their own zone defending and well drilled to play instinctively within their system structure. It was likely the major deciding factor in the series imo.

Man to man for our D is just too complex at times, and Cassidy and Vegas exploited that to perfection, with our D aimlessly chasing Vegas forwards all over the zone. I think Nurse would fair far better in a simpler zone structure similar to what Vegas uses.

 

[SwedishFire]

Nurse needs a partner. Given expected contracts and acquisitions costs, how do you rank them?

Karlsson (25:37 TOI/GP)
Dumba (21:17 TOI/GP)
Mayfield (21:02 TOI/GP)
Klingberg (20:37 TOI/GP)
Holl (20:14 TOI/GP)
Ceci (20:08 TOI/GP)
Tanev (20:07 TOI/GP)
Severson (19:57 TOI/GP)
Demelo (19:34 TOI/GP)
Murphy (19:23 TOI/GP)
Hamonic (18:34 TOI/GP)

Tanev, Demelo or Murphy would be awesomesauce.

 

[guymez]

The Whitecloud goal highlight is best example of an ill-conceived switch that didn't happen. Nurse chasing a non-threat to the blue line and leaves Foegele hanging in what should be a switch to cover but no communication. Oilers get picked apart too frequently with current zone coverage when needless over aggressive d extend to opposition into low scoring areas and resulting poor communication and connectedness with team defending support. Oil are built for a quick strike attack. Simplify own zone defending beginning with tight, discipline home plate defending by d-men and mitigate high speed, confusion with complex switches for this forward group. All must also work way harder and smarter to mitigate high danger scoring chances.

Nurse needs to be more disciplined and simplify and structure his own zone defending. Needs a high end complementing veteran d-partner to help heavy lifting and strong, smart defending. Parayko I believe would be a perfect fit for Nurse and to deliver a 1B pairing to augment its first pair, Ekholm and Bouchard.

Fyi here are the Parayko splits I mentioned in my other post:

His season's +/- splits down as -20 October - January and +2 February - April. Pretty wild swing again on a team with a -38 goal share. So a pretty dramatic swing happened before garbage time.

- Why was Parayko's game splits so different between road, 2G 16A 20 PTS +4 and home, 0G 7A 7PTS -23? Playing the most toi, why was this player able to keep his head above water on the road (where there's less match up control) vs home on a team that cratered to a -38 goal share.

Vegas won with a better, deeper d-corp and well oiled defensive structure that extended from smarter positional play to fueling transition offence to skilled forwards. Cassidy's systems and coaching were better. They better insulated a shared soft weakness of questionable goaltending.

I remember watching that in real time and wondering WTF Nurse was doing. The breakdown in that play IMO is when Nurse decides to follow Smith up to the blue line. Nurse might as well have skated off on a line change because it results in the same outcome.
I cant remember the last time I saw a defending dman essentially skate out of his own zone to follow a puck carrier.
I think what I am getting at though is that it isnt clear if Foegele and Nurse are supposed to switch. An argument could be made that Foegele was supposed to stay on the player he was originally defending which was Whitecloud. Foegele started puck watching and got turned around and lost the man he was marking.
So to me there are 2 breakdowns on that play....Foegeles puck watching and Nurses inexplicable dedication to follow Smith all over the ice.
The biggest mistake is on Nurse...if he stays home then Vegas doesnt get that clean shot on net from the slot.

But again...that play indicates to me that the defensive strategy was man on man.

 

[Soundwave]

Stauffer has said our D zone coverage is man to man low and zone high (the two wingers). Go to the Woodcroft defensive system thread, it basically breaks down all of this.

 

[McTonyBrar]

For now, Konecny and Brown

 

[Blueston]

I think the trade market is limited for Parayko and the other 2 big ticket Blues d options. They all hold control with NMC. That's a challenging spot for GM Armstrong if, as stated, he wants to cut cost or re-distribute cap dollars with the team re-tooling or possibly re-building..

Severson was a UFA so flipping a 3rd is reasonable to lock him in. C-Bus who apparently inquired about Parayko opted for younger, durable Provorov for a 1st and 2nd pick & secured 30% multi-year retention. The Provorov trade and Ekholm's (1st, prospect, functional NHL player Barrie and $500,000 multi-year retention) give a pretty good framework for such a future deal.

I've advocated Parayko for two years as a final finishing piece to give the Oilers an elite deep and diverse Cup level blue line. And that's acknowledging the high risk questions about health, erosion of game, and an absolute killer long-term money deal that extends to the player's twilight years. I think Parayko would answer all concerns but add all up I don't see an NHL team overpaying for him. And with no trade protection, Parayko will determine if/where he goes. His hometown and an open winning window conceivable should be an attractive option.

I don’t think there is much if any market for Krug. Faulk and Leddy I think we could deal but don’t think we would if we deal Parayko. need to have some nhl guys back there if we dint want to be terrible. Parayko I think we want to deal because of contract length and inherent risk of that for mediocre team. And I think there will be a few teams you are competing with to get him. I’d expect price to be similar to what you paid for Eckholm. We shall see.

 

[guymez]

Man to man for our D is just too complex at times, and Cassidy and Vegas exploited that to perfection, with our D aimlessly chasing Vegas forwards all over the zone. I think Nurse would fair far better in a simpler zone structure similar to what Vegas uses.

I agree...a straight zone defence is what I would like to see Woody employ. So the basic structure of the D doesnt change...it remains in tact as players maintain their positioning.

My interpretation of what I am currently seeing is like you are suggesting....straight man to man coverage.
If I am understanding @Behind Enemy Lines correctly he believes that the system is a modified man to man (switching) which makes things even more complex.

 

[tiger_80]

Ceci is serviceable and cheap while Foegele is decent dept but a little overpaid and only has 1 year left. Broberg is a guy that might take awhile to fully hit his stride but could be a solid NHLer for a long time.

I think Yamomoto and Foegele are prime candidates for getting moved. I'd prefer Janmark over either at around 1.5M. If they can clear almost 6M in salary and get a pair of 3rd, 4th round picks, they should do it. Then sign some cheap veterans for the depth.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

I don’t think there is much if any market for Krug. Faulk and Leddy I think we could deal but don’t think we would if we deal Parayko. need to have some nhl guys back there if we dint want to be terrible. Parayko I think we want to deal because of contract length and inherent risk of that for mediocre team. And I think there will be a few teams you are competing with to get him. I’d expect price to be similar to what you paid for Eckholm. We shall see.

I think Armstrong's in tough. Expensive older veteran d-corp with no trades and a team that's teetering between a desired re-tool or deeper rebuild. Krug has zero market. Agree about Faulk maybe with shorter term but as an American player may have limited markets he accepts to go to and maybe Leddy.

The reasons you cite for moving Parayko reinforce more reasons why his trade value is challenging. It will be a really small, niche prospective trade market with big money, long tail 7 of 8 year term remaining, and some lingering questions to be answered about the state of Payayko's game and health. Add on Parayko's no trade in which he controls his destiny and I can't imagine a player waiving for a non-contending team (and what contending team is betting big with all things considered).

Armstrong might have to deal one of his other expensive veteran d or bite the bullet to move Parayko to an agreeable player destination at a marginal trade return to take $45,500,000 of cap space off the books for a transitioning organization. We'll see as you say. Thanks for the discussion!

 

[Little Fury]

Sign Phil Kessel, 1 year $750K.

 

[Lacaar]

Some nice breakdowns and discussion about the D coverage.

My guess on the Whitecloud goal is Nurse got a little excited in the hopes of springing the puck lose for a breakout the other way. That's why I think people like Stauffer keep talking about how Nurse needs to focus on his defensive game first.

Nurse is a great athlete but he makes poor decisions/risks for offence. The coaching staff needs to put in a system to take those decisions away from Nurse. And sit down with him and have a LONG HARD conversation about what this team needs from him. We can bitch and moan about his contract because we're fans. Nurse needs to get that shit out of his head and become a defensive machine. Because 2 way Nurse in the playoffs killed us in the Vegas series.. absolutely killed us. He missed on a glorious opportunity in the series as well If I recall correctly.

It's one thing to get beat by a nice skilled play. The Oilers got out maneuvered at a tactical level that series and lost because of it. The offensive game couldn't get to the net but that's a question for another day.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Sign Phil Kessel, 1 year $750K.

Close to a target I like, but I'd go with his old linemate on a cheap deal: JVR. He's nothing special at this point, but he does fit in well with how this team likes its extra pieces to attack: Retrieve pucks down low for McDrai and Nuge, then go to the net, and let them bounce pucks in off you.


But honestly I don't think this team needs more offence. Much like how Ekholm gave them a premium defensive defenceman, they need to do the same upfront. ROR would be the dream, but unless he randomly takes a massive discount to play with McDavid, I don't see it.

I don't think the answer is will be one guy, but 3 or 4. I'd have a lot of time for both Toews (especially) and Brown, supplemented by bring back 2 of Ryan (already done), Bjugstad, and Janmark. I'd also look at smaller pieces like Stastny and Fast from outside the organisation if Brown, Janmark, and Bjugstad get too expensive.


The more I look at Toews, the more I'm actually liking the idea of him as a McLinemate vs. as the 3rd line centre. His best days are far behind him, and don't think he's up for the role of matchup centre nigh in and night out. But he did still play big minutes for Chicago last year (17+/game), and I can see him fitting well as the defensive/do the little things presence for the McDavid line.

Toews-McDavid-Kane
RNH-Draisaitl-Hyman
Kostin-McLeod-Brown
Janmark/Bjugstad-Holloway-Lavoie
Ryan

 

[guymez]

@Behind Enemy Lines @bellagiobob
I was looking for some Oilers content and stumbled across this article.
Not sure if this has been posted already but the article included a very interesting comment by Marchessault in game 6 of the series....

And that’s when Marchessault dropped his truth bomb: “If we keep bringing pucks to the net, we know they play man-on-man in the d-zone, so we just have to beat our guy to the net, and we can get bounces there.”

Vegas realized that Edmonton was locked into a man-to-man defensive structure in the defensive zone. This system meant if Darnell Nurse was covering Reilly Smith, Nurse was to stick with Smith even if Smith ranged far out of the scoring zone in front of Edmonton’s net, even if he moved out of the offensive zone.

Marchessault spilled the beans on exactly how Vegas knew it could beat Edmonton

Pretty much the same way I saw that series.
As more time passes and more info comes out I find myself even more convinced that their defensive system (man on man coverage) was one of the major reasons (if not the major reason) why the Oilers lost this series.
I would really like a reporter to ask Woodcroft about this.