Speculation: Oilers off season targets

[Sra1974]

It has literally never been true that there is one way to win a championship. In fact just the opposite. Teams win and everyone tries to imitate how they did it but that typically fails and within a few years there is a new formula for what it takes.

Like it or not with McDavid and Draisaitl this team's best chance to win is to play to their strengths which is offense. That does not mean that they can't be more responsible defensively, but there is no way that you are going to reinvent this version of thee Oilers. They simply have to execute better while making opportunistic changes to make incremental changes when they are possible.


I have no idea how old you are but you are making the exact same claims made about the Oilers in 82 and 83.

The same 82/83 team also had hall of fame goaltending and hall of fame defence. Yes they were an offensive juggernaut, but also in game 1 in 84 won by a score of 1-0.

The Oilers currently built are going to be too heavy offensive minded and thats reality, but they need better overall team defence in my opinion. This includes forwards who can be trusted with some tough minutes in key moments - like after a goal for - so you don’t have to always rely on the big guys. The PK would be another area to target getting better at. The defence core need some stability upgrades.

They are close, but are going to need to be harder to play against for 60 minutes to win it all.

 

[McDoused]

Edmonton lead in all 6 games but couldnt close the games out.

I hate to oversimplify but Vegas is a good team. The margins against a team like that means that if a call or bounce dont go your way and its game over. Everyone here is acting like Edmonton didnt get their chances or out shoot/outplay Vegas for most of the series. Hockey is a game of momentum and sometimes goaltenders get hot.

Campbell had a rough regular season. If he had a .914 s% this year it would have resulted in 27 less goals against. That would have brought our GAs from 17th to 12. As I've stated before since we brought in Desharnais and Ekholm we were top 10 in GAs. Put that all together and we should be a much better defensive team next year.

Conversely Skinner gained valuable experience but cant be playing so much this time next year. He started 12 straight playoff games despite never starting more than 6 in a row in the regular season.

 

[Fourier]

The same 82/83 team also had hall of fame goaltending and hall of fame defence. Yes they were an offensive juggernaut, but also in game 1 in 84 won by a score of 1-0.

The Oilers currently built are going to be too heavy offensive minded and thats reality, but they need better overall team defence in my opinion. This includes forwards who can be trusted with some tough minutes in key moments - like after a goal for - so you don’t have to always rely on the big guys. The PK would be another area to target getting better at. The defence core need some stability upgrades.

They are close, but are going to need to be harder to play against for 60 minutes to win it all.

That 1-0 win was fantastic and Fuhr played great. But it was still a team built to win games by outscoring its opposition. They simply committed to doing what ever it took. And of course I am not comparing this team with that one.

The pk was very disappointing. Interestingly enough it was much better the year before with perhaps better skaters. This should be correctable but it starts with the guy in the net making saves. Last year a hobbled Smith had a .919sv% on teh pk compared with Skinner's .831.

There is no reason this team can't win 1-0 when needed with basically this team and perhaps a few upgrades here and there. They will need better goaltending for sure, but that does not require a rethinking of how they play.

 

[LTIR]

So is Gibson an option or will he just pout if Skinner outshines him

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Imo they need one more big guy with solid hands and finishing to round out the top 6. Good news is Holloway and Lavoie are knocking on the door, but I'd love to have someone just to bridge that gap. Just so they steal a job vs. have it handed to them.

Kane-McDavid-_____
RNH-Draisaitl-Hyman

Someone like Niederreiter would be my favourite fit, but even a cheap vet like JVR would cover the bet. One other wild card could be Foegele; I'm not massive on him, but he is 27 and going into a contract season. If there was ever a time for him to lay everything on the line to earn a massive pay-day, it's next year.

Though my issue with keeping Foegele is it means cuts elsewhere. For example, for the price of Foegele + a league min contract, you could likely keep both Bjugstad and Janmark, two quality depth piece that can help anchor the bottom 6 and PK. It adds up to become the difference between having a quality option like Ryan as the spare/13th forward vs. needing him in the line up from the beginning, and going with a replacement level talent like Malone or McKegg as the top spare. Even if it's just saving that 750k, it's a big difference.

I've got the same opinion with Ceci: I like the idea of him as 3rd pairing guy that ups up as needed, but I feel like you can save near 2 mil and grab a solid vet like Hamonic or Schenn who cover a lot of the same bases.


I'm somewhat optimistic about the cap hits, but I feel like this is easily doable.

 

[Keenan87]

What type of package can Nurse bring in?

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

What type of package can Nurse bring in?

I'll take future considerations.

 

[Fourier]

What type of package can Nurse bring in?

He's just not a realistic trade piece. He has a full NMC with no incentive to move.

 

[Fourier]

I'll take future considerations.

I hope that this is tongue-in-cheek. You would now have $9.25M in cap space but you have made your defense a lot worse. To replace Nurse even with his flaws you would have to spend at least $8M on the cap and since there are no UFA's even close to his level available you would be looking at multiple high-end assets in a trade to get you back to where you started. In the end you have probably traded the equivalent of multiple 1sts to save a little over $1M on the cap. .

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

I hope that this is tongue-in-cheek. You would now have $9.25M in cap space but you have made your defense a lot worse. To replace Nurse even with his flaws you would have to spend at least $8M on the cap and since there are no UFA's even close to his level available you would be looking at multiple high-end assets in a trade to get you back to where you started. In the end you have probably traded the equivalent of multiple 1sts to save a little over $1M on the cap. .

Nurse is a $6m at best d-man masquerading as a 9.25m d-man. I seriously don't know what this player does well and the response I usually get is "He eats minutes" which seems like the absolute bare minimum for any defenseman since they'll often play more than most forwards. I've never once seen this player elevate his game come playoff time and he wilted horrifically during this Vegas series.

Obviously you're never going to dump him on a team but I think if you can move on from him you do it and hope you get something of value back whether it be picks, prospects, an NHL level defender or cap space.

 

[Fourier]

Nurse is a $6m at best d-man masquerading as a 9.25m d-man. I seriously don't know what this player does well and the response I usually get is "He eats minutes" which seems like the absolute bare minimum for any defenseman since they'll often play more than most forwards. I've never once seen this player elevate his game come playoff time and he wilted horrifically during this Vegas series.

Obviously you're never going to dump him on a team but I think if you can move on from him you do it and hope you get something of value back whether it be picks, prospects, an NHL level defender or cap space.

No chance you get a defenseman like Nurse for $6M. That gets you Ryan Pulock. For all of his flaws the guy still is a legitimate top pairing defenseman. Look at the results when he is on the ice. They are consistently very positive. His issue is that he makes mistakes that stick in peoples minds.

 

[FlameChampion]

At the end of the day the Oilers have 3 problems in particular:

1) RD. They need someone to play with Nurse. I dont think you can rely on Ceci to play on the top pairing. That being said, he isnt paid to play on the top pairing. If I am being honest, I think Nurse is as big of a problem as Ceci. For someone playing 9.25mil he should be able to carry the pairing which he clearly cant. Unfortunately we are stuck with Nurse's contract. We would be a worse team without Nurse. Its a bit of a conundrum. I think we need to figure out a player that fits well with him. Unfortunately I dont know who that player is. I dont personally think a guy like Severson is going to move the needle enough. We basically need a RD version of Ekholm to play with him. Not a very easy fix.

2) Goaltending. Unfortunately we are pretty much stuck with Campbell. Goalies are voodoo so who knows, maybe he bounces back. But I think they need to find another guy making league minimum that can step in.

3) RW upgrade. I think they need to move Yamamoto out. They need to bring someone in whos more capable of a top 6 role (or hope for a promotion from within).

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

No chance you get a defenseman like Nurse for $6M. That gets you Ryan Pulock. For all of his flaws the guy still is a legitimate top pairing defenseman. Look at the results when he is on the ice. They are consistently very positive. His issue is that he makes mistakes that stick in peoples minds.

Is he though? I've said this many times that there's a distinct difference between being a top pairing D-man and being a top pairing d-man on the Oilers. With Ekhlom here now I don't think he's even the best defenseman on the team anymore. For how much money he's getting paid he should be able to elevate his defensive partner but instead the Nurse/Ceci pairing got absolutely caved against Vegas. No disrespect to him but Brett Kulak was miles better than Nurse in these playoffs.

The fact that he was told by McDavid and Draisatl not to fight in game 4 and then did it anyway speaks volumes about his character, or lack thereof. He had a chance to be a leader or at least listen to his leaders and completely gassed it. Too many mental errors from this guy, and he got himself suspended for a crucial game 5 and then came back in a decisive game 6 and put up an albatross. Perhaps all too fitting for one of the biggest albatrosses in the league.

This contract is a franchise crippler. If Holland has the opportunity to move it he absolutely should.

 

[FlameChampion]

Is he though? I've said this many times that there's a distinct difference between being a top pairing D-man and being a top pairing d-man on the Oilers. With Ekhlom here now I don't think he's even the best defenseman on the team anymore. For how much money he's getting paid he should be able to elevate his defensive partner but instead the Nurse/Ceci pairing got absolutely caved against Vegas. No disrespect to him but Brett Kulak was miles better than Nurse in these playoffs.

The fact that he was told by McDavid and Draisatl not to fight in game 4 and then did it anyway speaks volumes about his character, or lack thereof. He had a chance to be a leader or at least listen to his leaders and completely gassed it. Too many mental errors from this guy, and he got himself suspended for a crucial game 5 and then came back in a decisive game 6 and put up an albatross. Perhaps all too fitting for one of the biggest albatrosses in the league.

This contract is a franchise crippler. If Holland has the opportunity to move it he absolutely should.

Just my opinion, but I think Nurse is a 6-7 million dollar dman.

My biggest problem with him is how inconsistent he is and his decision making. The thing that really bugs me is the amount of mistakes he makes on routine plays. I actually think he does a good job and rarely gets beaten on high skill plays. Why does he struggle so hard on routine plays? He's always trying to do too much.

I think the Oilers are a better team with him, dont get me wrong. We would be a worse team without him. But at the same time, hes not a 9.25mil dman and he cant carry the top pairing. Hes a 4million dman about as often as he is a 9million dman.

I think we need to find him a partner that can really compliments him. The problem is that I realistically dont know who that is. I really hope that he look in the mirror and find a way to cut down some of the goals against on such routine plays. But at this junction of his career, I am not sure that he can honestly.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Priority - have to upgrade the blue line ideally via off-season trade to Cup level top end quality and depth. Secondary need is a veteran top six rw which can be a trade deadline fix.

Clear out expensive support forwards and clear support d to make cap room and roster space. Re-sign cheap veteran versatile bottom six players, optimally all 3, to insulate onboarding young players. High end, big, veteran quality and versatile top two pairing d can play big minutes, all situations and can rotate, as needed, to help a developing, young third pair if/when they struggle.

Goal - better defensive zone systems and personnel to insulate average goaltending.

Out: $11.85
Yamamoto: $3.1 x 1
Foegele: $2.75 x 1
Ceci: $3.25 x 2
Kulak: $2.75 x 2

Re-sign: $9.7 million
Bjugstad: $1.5 x 3
Janmark: $1.3 x 1
Kostin: $1.2 x 1
McLeod: $1.2 x 1
Ryan: $1 x 1
Bouchard: $3.5 x 1 or 2
Saving: $2.17 mill

$2.17 + $5.97 mill Current Cap Space
$8,140,000 to fill Top Six RD via off season trade and 1 Top Six Forward (likely deadline)

RNH - McDavid - Hyman
Kane - Draisaitl - Holloway
Kostin - McLeod - Ryan
Janmark - Bjugstad - Lavoie

Ekholm - Bouchard (22-24 min pairing)
Nurse - Parayko (22 -24 min pairing)
Broberg - Desharnais (14-16 min pairing. Rotation option vets with kids if/when struggles happen)

 

[Fourier]

Is he though? I've said this many times that there's a distinct difference between being a top pairing D-man and being a top pairing d-man on the Oilers. With Ekhlom here now I don't think he's even the best defenseman on the team anymore. For how much money he's getting paid he should be able to elevate his defensive partner but instead the Nurse/Ceci pairing got absolutely caved against Vegas. No disrespect to him but Brett Kulak was miles better than Nurse in these playoffs.

The fact that he was told by McDavid and Draisatl not to fight in game 4 and then did it anyway speaks volumes about his character, or lack thereof. He had a chance to be a leader or at least listen to his leaders and completely gassed it. Too many mental errors from this guy, and he got himself suspended for a crucial game 5 and then came back in a decisive game 6 and put up an albatross. Perhaps all too fitting for one of the biggest albatrosses in the league.

This contract is a franchise crippler. If Holland has the opportunity to move it he absolutely should.

Nurse is certainly prone to both stupid mistakes and stupid decisions such as the one that led him to be suspended. Though frankly the suspension was a ridiculous attempt by the League to "even the plying field" with AP's far worse action and decision.

Nurse in my mind is overpaid. I think because of the flaws in his game he should be at about $8-8.5M based on everything else he does. When he is playing at his best he can be dominant. His even strength scoring is amongst the best in the league. He is tied for 3rd amongst defensemen in 5 vs 5 goals scored over the last 3 years with 25 behind only Karlsson (27) and Makar (26). He's tied for 14th in 5 vs 5 points over that period. He is also second in individual Corsi For amongst defensemen and 5th in Individul Scoring Chances For. That alone would set his value at much higher than the $6M you suggest. But he also does play big minutes vs the league's best players and has typically come out far ahead in that regard. He is also one of the top 15 defensemen in hist over that period. His on ice GA/60 rate is 2.68 which is better than a guy like Colton Parayko at 2.81 or Jonas Siegenthaler at 2.82, the latter being viewed as one of the top defensive defenesmen in the league. So It's not like the Oilers are bleeding goals with him on the ice.

This year in the playoffs teh combination of Ceci and Nurse were certainly in tough. But if you look at the stats Nurse without Ceci was actually quite good (xGF% 67.57) and Ceci without Nurse was an even bigger disaster (xGF% 31.9%).

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

Nurse has pretty much played the last three years with guys who should have been at best #4's. We don't actually know how much better he could be if he had a stable partner even remotely suited to the kind of minutes he plays.

If he was a UFA this year my guess is that with the dearth of talent available and the pending cap increase he'd probably get very close to what he gets now perhaps even a bit more. Nurse was on year 1 of an 8 year deal. To fairly compare contracts I look at its value relative to the projected cap at the midpoint. Bettman suggested recently the revenues this year will come in near $6B. That would mean a cap naturally at just under $100M. If things return to normal that would mean the cap at the midpoint of his deal could be well over $100M making Nurse's deal more like a $7.25M deal if he was at the midpoint today. In this regard his contract is not crippling at all. It is slightly problematic today because of how tight to the cap the Oilers are. But it is probably only slightly more of an issue than the $850K that the Oilers are eating in bonus overages.

 

[Soundwave]

Nurse isn't really worth a penny over 6.5. He's not any better than Ekholm at all, worse probably in actual defensive ability.

If you said the Oilers have 30 seconds where they must defend a lead to win a game/series and you can only put one of Nurse or Ekholm on the ice as your LD, I'd pick Ekholm, not even trying to be edgy or whatever, that's 100% the truth.

Nurse's not better than guys like Morrisey or Noah Hanifin who make nowhere close to 9 million.

 

[Spawn]

Nurse isn't really worth a penny over 6.5. He's not any better than Ekholm at all, worse probably in actual defensive ability.

If you said the Oilers have 30 seconds where they must defend a lead to win a game/series and you can only put one of Nurse or Ekholm on the ice as your LD, I'd pick Ekholm, not even trying to be edgy or whatever, that's 100% the truth.

Nurse's not better than guys like Morrisey or Noah Hanifin who make nowhere close to 9 million.

If you said the Oilers had 30 seconds to defend a lead in a game I’d probably take Ekholm over Makar too.

That doesn’t make him a better player.

 

[Soundwave]

If you said the Oilers had 30 seconds to defend a lead in a game I’d probably take Ekholm over Makar too.

That doesn’t make him a better player.

Can't say I'd agree with that either. I'd take Makar even in a defensive must win situation, Nurse is more prone to doing something stupid.

Nurse isn't any better of a player than Ekholm/Hanifin/Morrissey tier guys, he just took Holland to the cleaners on an outlier Canadian division season where he scored like 1/3 of his points playing an Ottawa team that wasn't even trying to make the playoffs.

 

[tiger_80]

Maybe they can convince Smyth and Horcoff to come out of the retirement and finally bring the cup to Edmonton!

Can't say I'd agree with that either. I'd take Makar even in a defensive must win situation, Nurse is more prone to doing something stupid.

Nurse isn't any better of a player than Ekholm/Hanifin/Morrissey tier guys, he just took Holland to the cleaners on an outlier Canadian division season where he scored like 1/3 of his points playing an Ottawa team that wasn't even trying to make the playoffs.

He used his superior strength to bend Kenny over the barrel)))

 

[SwedishFire]

The problem is they need a D to babysit a defender that makes 9 million a year..

The best fix is to coach Ceci to cover for Nurse, how to and etc.
Or shift Broberg/VD woth 7D together with nurse.

Kulak Ceci as a solid shutdown pair

 

[McDoused]

Nurse needs a partner. Given expected contracts and acquisitions costs, how do you rank them?

Karlsson (25:37 TOI/GP)
Dumba (21:17 TOI/GP)
Mayfield (21:02 TOI/GP)
Klingberg (20:37 TOI/GP)
Holl (20:14 TOI/GP)
Ceci (20:08 TOI/GP)
Tanev (20:07 TOI/GP)
Severson (19:57 TOI/GP)
Demelo (19:34 TOI/GP)
Murphy (19:23 TOI/GP)
Hamonic (18:34 TOI/GP)

 

[Beerfish]

We need defense!

Let's get rid of the guy cheap who has been plus 71 the last three seasons, has produced offense with almost no pp time, has been worked to death most of the last 3 years and faces the other teams tough match ups often! He also is one of the few guys who brings toughness.

But! He makes gaffs at times that look bad so better ignore all the other stuff and dump him for peanuts!

As for his salary Holland totally caving in is the reason he is over paid by about 1.5 to 2 million.

Top end players who actually produce do not kill your cap even if they are over paid.

The guys that kill your cap are the middling players that have no tangible effect on the team signed for too much and too much term. And this is where Holland just specializes in Fing up the team. Handing out multi year deals to the likes of foegle and yamo and kulak etc.

 

[McDoused]

We need defense!

Let's get rid of the guy cheap who has been plus 71 the last three seasons, has produced offense with almost no pp time, has been worked to death most of the last 3 years and faces the other teams tough match ups often! He also is one of the few guys who brings toughness.

But! He makes gaffs at times that look bad so better ignore all the other stuff and dump him for peanuts!

As for his salary Holland totally caving in is the reason he is over paid by about 1.5 to 2 million.

Top end players who actually produce do not kill your cap even if they are over paid.

The guys that kill your cap are the middling players that have no tangible effect on the team signed for too much and too much term. And this is where Holland just specializes in Fing up the team. Handing out multi year deals to the likes of foegle and yamo and kulak etc.

You are never going to persuade the anti-nurse regime. Even though I have repeatedly posted the stats to support how good he is, they can never seem to figure it out.

Over the past 3 years nurse is 12th amongst defenceman in EVP with 94 points and 3rd in goals with 32. During that same period he is 8th in +/- with +71. Nurse was 8th in total TOI and 2nd in even strength TOI. He has a physical game as evidenced by his 175 PIMs (14th in this span), 459 hits (16th in this span) and 396 blocked shots (11th in this span).

Is Nurse perfect? Of course not. He misses the net a lot, gives up pucks more than he takes them away. I get that he can be a frustrating player at times but he needs to simplify his game a bit more and make better decisions at key moments. Give him a better partner and I think he continues to be a #1 defenceman in this league for years.

 

[McJadeddog]

Is he though? I've said this many times that there's a distinct difference between being a top pairing D-man and being a top pairing d-man on the Oilers. With Ekhlom here now I don't think he's even the best defenseman on the team anymore. For how much money he's getting paid he should be able to elevate his defensive partner but instead the Nurse/Ceci pairing got absolutely caved against Vegas. No disrespect to him but Brett Kulak was miles better than Nurse in these playoffs.

The fact that he was told by McDavid and Draisatl not to fight in game 4 and then did it anyway speaks volumes about his character, or lack thereof. He had a chance to be a leader or at least listen to his leaders and completely gassed it. Too many mental errors from this guy, and he got himself suspended for a crucial game 5 and then came back in a decisive game 6 and put up an albatross. Perhaps all too fitting for one of the biggest albatrosses in the league.

This contract is a franchise crippler. If Holland has the opportunity to move it he absolutely should.

For the whole fighting anyway thing, it really is indefensible honestly. I'm not a guy who bashes Nurse on the regular, yes he is overpaid by about 1.5 million, and yes he has warts in his game. But he is still a very good player and brings lots of good things to the ice. Additionally, he isn't at fault for his contract, that is on Holland. All that being said, man o man, was fighting in that scenario STUPID, just mind-numbing stupidity. No need for it, and only served to make himself feel better. Completely selfish act, and I hope his teammates called him out for it. There is a very real possibility that we win game 5 with Nurse playing instead of Broberg, in a game where Broberg took 2 really bad penalties (one that wasn't a penalty at all!) and didn't play good overall. Nurse playing might have won that game for us and we go back to Edmonton up 3 games to 2.

Again, one of the dumber things I've seen an Oilers player do in years and years.

Nurse isn't really worth a penny over 6.5. He's not any better than Ekholm at all, worse probably in actual defensive ability.

If you said the Oilers have 30 seconds where they must defend a lead to win a game/series and you can only put one of Nurse or Ekholm on the ice as your LD, I'd pick Ekholm, not even trying to be edgy or whatever, that's 100% the truth.

Nurse's not better than guys like Morrisey or Noah Hanifin who make nowhere close to 9 million.

There is a lot more to playing D than who you would put out in the last 30 seconds of a game. I wouldn't choose McDavid to be my number #1 choice on a penalty shot, but that doesn't mean McDavid isn't the best forward in the league. This argument holds no water.