As always you are the voice of reason.
It’s astonishing the number of bad takes going around regarding Nurse and the notion that he’d be easy to replace.
Speculation: Oilers off season targets
- Thread starter TFHockey
- Start date
It’s astonishing the number of bad takes going around regarding Nurse and the notion that he’d be easy to replace.
Bryanbryoil
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We need someone that can move the puck and has puck poise while being able to anticipate Nurse's periodic brain farts. Mayfield and Murphy don't move the puck well enough IMO. Karlsson is super expensive and not very good defensively himself. Klingberg is a lesser version of Karlsson or a bigger Barrie. Tanev's injury history worries me a bit. I'm thinking that Severson is the best of all of the options available all things considered.
Took a pill in Sbisa
2showToffoliIwascool
Am I misremembering things or did Nurse not look his best paired with Barrie in the COVID Canada division? Maybe Klingberg could be a fit.
Bryanbryoil
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He's played well with Barrie and Bear. Klingberg could be a cheap option and we know that we had interest in him in the past. But for that pairing to do well Darnell would have to be the defensive conscience. If Klingberg could give us comparable play to Barrie offensively and be better defensively just due to his size advantage over Barrie it wouldn't be a terrible option. Better than another guy on his pair that can't break the puck out and ices it frequently.
TheBrew
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- Mar 9, 2003
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It’s to bad Martin Skoula retired, that guy had some of the best puck poise I’ve ever seen in the NHL.
bobbythebrain
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- Jul 30, 2016
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You're misreading the Covid Cup. That should NEVER be brought up as an example of how anyone played. It was joke and Nurse cashed in on it.
Teams like Washington are already confirmed to have mailed it in during that season. The Flyers lost Niskanen, their top pair guy, cuz he didn't want to play
That season was nothing more than a stat pad for ALOT of people
bobbythebrain
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They need someone who can cut off zone entries with good gap control and then move the puck. Stopping the other team from gaining the blueline is #1. Nurse is at his worst when he tries to cover the ice for 2 players or defending a cycle.
Matt Grezlyk would be a good candidate imo. Much like Ceci, he is not a top pairing guy but affordable enough to play in the top line and will do a better job than Ceci at cutting off danger and then moving it quickly
While true, also notice that without Ceci, Nurse got a lot easier minutes and would be expected to be have much better statistics. And Ceci had harder minutes without Nurse (like to see the QOC on that, judging from OZ/DZ starts). Furthermore, the OIGA/60 with Ceci was miles better without Nurse (2.3 vs 3.6). Defensively Nurse really dragged the pair down by a massive margin.
Its pretty basic, give a player tougher or easier minutes, and the stats will skew bad or good. I guarantee if you give Ceci bouchards minutes he is likely to get 40 points and not have a lot of goals against but I'd never call him an effective player in those minutes, it would hurt the team. And Bouchard in Ceci's minutes would be an absolute disaster.
Someone has to take those minutes. And someone will look bad doing it, you just have to find the players who look can best handle the role. It happens on every team in the league. I still believe try and cut back Ceci's hard minutes just by 1 or 2 a game, give him a more competent defensive player on his other side, move Nurse to better offensive minutes and away from the toughest minutes and the D straightens itself out. Can Deharnais work with Nurse in a combo role, #2PK and middlish minutes? Unsure, maybe a combo of Broberg and Deharnais depending on the role. I'm never a fan of playing off side especially on D, but if its mostly offensive minded minutes, Broberg can likely manage his offside.
I'm not too worried about artificial designations such as #1D or #2D or #3D. Figure out the best distribution of roles. Some nights your shutdown pair may lead in minutes. Usually your offensive pair will.
Significantly higher OZone starts and far less PK time. Yeah he did look better ....
Forgot About Drai
Dr Drai the Second
Nurse is overpaid, overplayed and also extremely essential to the Oilers defense as presently constructed.
All these things can and are true.
All these things can and are true.
Rafters
Registered User
yukoner88
Registered User
I'll take "Names that I haven't heard in forever" for $100", Alex
Fourier
Registered User
You do point out an obvious flaw in the straight WOWYnumbers. BUt if you look at these with top players from LA and Vegas what you see is that for LA their time and perfomance away from one another against guys like Kopitar, Kempe, Danault, Vilardi and Fiala are actually quite similar. But with Vegas it is different.
The eye test also seems to confirm that it was Ceci who was struggling. We also have been told that he was dealing with significant core injury.
Still largely looking at 10 minute samples. Against a team steam rolling in the playoffs.
Not sure how much I buy into the injury factor. If the injury was that significant you'd think he would have gotten some games off during the regular season, or at least a reduction in duty. All players are injured this time of year to some extent.
Ina ny case though I agree he was struggling. But my point is every player in the league struggles in those types of minutes. But as he has shown on multiple teams, he takes the hardest minutes and is usually one of the best to middle of the pack in OIGA. Thats more what I call serviceable. Sure an upgrade would be nice, but ask around to every team and you will find a defensive RHD is on just about every teams top wanted list. You have someone serviceable, you may have to live with it. The only other realistic option is RNH or Hyman have to go in a trade.
Fourier
Registered User
Of course the sample size is small but it adds context to your previous comments about the quality of competition impacting the WOWY stats. Occam's razor comes into play here. One guy has had success playing big first line minutes vs the oppositions best for a number of years. The other guy has never really played such a role successfully. It makes sense that if the numbers apart favour the former, its not simply because of easier minutes.
I have no problem with Ceci as a second pairing RHD. The issue though is that right now he is forced to play above his head. There are two obvious possibilities to rectify this. 1) Bouchard takes a big step forward and becomes a legitimate 1st pairing defender at ES or 2) You upgrade Ceci with a better RHD. Neither is likely to happen right away so I am afraid that in the near future it is what it is. That said I don't think it has to be a defensive RHD explicitly. Nurse could play a more defensive role if his partner had the right skills. I don't think for example that Karlsson is on the table but if he were and was paired with Nurse you can ask Nurse to adjust his game to focus more on defending. Karlsson of course is on the extreme side but I don't think you need a strictly defensive partner. Nurse gets himself into trouble when he tries to do everything at both ends of the ice. Give him a more simplified role and I am confident he can play it well. Of course, he would need to buy into that more restricted role.
As far as an injury impacting his play, we don't know for sure but the speculation is that it was a core injury. If that is the case a player can be significantly impacted while still able to play. In Ceci's case there was no internal replacement that might have been better. So just like last year when Nurse had a torn hip flexor you have him play and hope it is good enough.
As far as trading Hyman or RNH it is almost surely not in the cards. I can't see any scenario where Nuge is asked to waive and I think it is very unlikely that he would given how his contract played out. Hyman may be slightly more likely to be traded but I doubt that the chances are much more than very very slim. If the goal is to upgrade Ceci the main capitol will be futures and prospects.
bucks_oil
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- Aug 25, 2005
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Behind Enemy Lines
Registered User
To Do List:
1. Simplify own zone defending system to better suit this team's personnel. Dump complex d and forward switches which too often lead d-men chasing out of home plate defending and gaps in high danger scoring areas as forwards/d miss their switch.
2. I look at Vegas (& St. Louis Cup team) model of big defenders and their layered approach to making it harder for other teams to score focusing on defending high quality scoring areas.
3. I keep coming back to Parayko as a good complement for Nurse with size, great skating ability and two-way defending ability, Cup experience and established shutdown play against elites. Highly durable the past 2 years since the back injury. Team high minutes overall, but also in EV, 5 V 5, second in 4x5 PK. Great playoff run last season as top pair shutdown against Colorado's elites. Cratered season this year along with a St. Louis team that finally hit the wall tilting a veteran team into rebuild/retool sell-off. There weren't really any players unscathed.
"This year's Parayko was a shell of that player. Parayko, who played in 79 games and averaged 23:00 minutes per game this season, saw his offensive numbers dip to 27 points (four goals, 23 assists) after putting up 35 points in 80 games last year, usually covers it up with his defensive play. He did lead the team with 144 blocked shots, but too often his coverage laxed, whether it be breakouts or in-zone coverage. Parayko was a minus-19 and was 15th on the team with an OPS of 0.7, but he did produce slightly better from a DPS standpoint at 1.8, which was best among d-men and tied with Buchnevich for fourth-best on the team. Parayko had the third-most giveaways with 49, but he was second-best behind Thomas' 67 with 59 takeaways, and a lot of those good numbers came towards the end of the season when Parayko was playing much better. And Parayko didn't have effective numbers in Corsi-for (45.1 percent) and Fenwick-for (45.1 percent). Parayko was a plus-1 over his final 22 games and played some of his best hockey when the talk of trade leading into the March 3 deadline subsided."
The Oilers don't need to add another high point producer d-man. Bouchard and Ekholm will have the top pair role and former to play point on the PP. Having a high end second pair with Nurse Parayko is like a 1B pair with size, elite skating and two-way game could be a formidable shutdown pair within a simplified, more structured system to defend home base. All four have elite size and complementing games that would form the backbone of a true elite defending corp. Versatile enough to also support through rotation, if needed, a cheap inexperienced third pair of Broberg Desharnais (assuming Broberg wasn't part of the package to get Parayko).
Such a trade has a degree of risk. Have to get retention ($500,000) similar to Ekholm deal. But this is about building up the longstanding weak link backbone position with this team. Boldness is required and a smarter own zone defending scheme and a final elite d piece are necessary to move the Oil into true elite Cup contender real estate... especially with the goaltending they have locked themselves into.
1. Simplify own zone defending system to better suit this team's personnel. Dump complex d and forward switches which too often lead d-men chasing out of home plate defending and gaps in high danger scoring areas as forwards/d miss their switch.
2. I look at Vegas (& St. Louis Cup team) model of big defenders and their layered approach to making it harder for other teams to score focusing on defending high quality scoring areas.
3. I keep coming back to Parayko as a good complement for Nurse with size, great skating ability and two-way defending ability, Cup experience and established shutdown play against elites. Highly durable the past 2 years since the back injury. Team high minutes overall, but also in EV, 5 V 5, second in 4x5 PK. Great playoff run last season as top pair shutdown against Colorado's elites. Cratered season this year along with a St. Louis team that finally hit the wall tilting a veteran team into rebuild/retool sell-off. There weren't really any players unscathed.
"This year's Parayko was a shell of that player. Parayko, who played in 79 games and averaged 23:00 minutes per game this season, saw his offensive numbers dip to 27 points (four goals, 23 assists) after putting up 35 points in 80 games last year, usually covers it up with his defensive play. He did lead the team with 144 blocked shots, but too often his coverage laxed, whether it be breakouts or in-zone coverage. Parayko was a minus-19 and was 15th on the team with an OPS of 0.7, but he did produce slightly better from a DPS standpoint at 1.8, which was best among d-men and tied with Buchnevich for fourth-best on the team. Parayko had the third-most giveaways with 49, but he was second-best behind Thomas' 67 with 59 takeaways, and a lot of those good numbers came towards the end of the season when Parayko was playing much better. And Parayko didn't have effective numbers in Corsi-for (45.1 percent) and Fenwick-for (45.1 percent). Parayko was a plus-1 over his final 22 games and played some of his best hockey when the talk of trade leading into the March 3 deadline subsided."
The Oilers don't need to add another high point producer d-man. Bouchard and Ekholm will have the top pair role and former to play point on the PP. Having a high end second pair with Nurse Parayko is like a 1B pair with size, elite skating and two-way game could be a formidable shutdown pair within a simplified, more structured system to defend home base. All four have elite size and complementing games that would form the backbone of a true elite defending corp. Versatile enough to also support through rotation, if needed, a cheap inexperienced third pair of Broberg Desharnais (assuming Broberg wasn't part of the package to get Parayko).
Such a trade has a degree of risk. Have to get retention ($500,000) similar to Ekholm deal. But this is about building up the longstanding weak link backbone position with this team. Boldness is required and a smarter own zone defending scheme and a final elite d piece are necessary to move the Oil into true elite Cup contender real estate... especially with the goaltending they have locked themselves into.
ManofSteel55
Registered User
I suspect we're going to have to hold out hope for an in-season acquisition for a blueline upgrade, like we did this year. Our 2024 1st is likely the piece we will be dangling for that d-man, and it makes more sense for teams to want that in February or March instead of now. I hope I'm wrong, but I only expect some slight tweaks to the bottom six and a replacement for Yamamoto as middle six RW (maybe internal in Holloway) for changes this summer unless we get a miracle bonus on the cap ceiling.
Centres - McDavid, Draisaitl, McLeod, Cheap 4C
Left Wings (no change) - Nuge, Kane, Foegele, Kostin
Right Wings - Hyman, Holloway, Ryan (or replacement), Janmark (or replacement)
Defense Pairs - Nurse/Ceci, Ekholm/Broberg, Kulak/Desharnais, Broberg (7th)
Goalies - Skinner/Campbell
The biggest help will come from a defensive system that is more sound. Less "run and gun" as they say. Less reliant on star power making goals.
Centres - McDavid, Draisaitl, McLeod, Cheap 4C
Left Wings (no change) - Nuge, Kane, Foegele, Kostin
Right Wings - Hyman, Holloway, Ryan (or replacement), Janmark (or replacement)
Defense Pairs - Nurse/Ceci, Ekholm/Broberg, Kulak/Desharnais, Broberg (7th)
Goalies - Skinner/Campbell
The biggest help will come from a defensive system that is more sound. Less "run and gun" as they say. Less reliant on star power making goals.
I'd love Parayko. I just don't know how we can add him even with Yamamoto's salary out for one reason or another.
ehhteen
5-14-6-1
Behind Enemy Lines
Registered User
I've posted before on a way forward for Parayko (or other top four RD). Think this team needs to cut around expensive support players Yamamoto and Foegele, likely 1 or both of Ceci and Kulak. Re-sign their cheap bottom six veterans (or 2 of 3 of Bjugstad, Ryan, Janmark) with sheltered onboarding roles for Holloway and Lavoie (assuming a strong camp). Find a cheap wing option at trade deadline.
I hear some media types talking about the Oil being close and rolling with the same line-up into the season. I personally think this is a risky situation as the playoff cards rolled well this year with Colorado out early. But anticipate Kings get better if/when they address goaltending, Vegas stays good, Seattle possibly regresses but still high compete keeps them in the playoff hunt, Flamers reset to fighting for a playoff spot.
Oil should imo solidify defense upgrade which has to be via trade during off-season. Roll with forwards until deadline and buy a cheap one then when wingers are and always will be the easiest commodity and cheapest cost wise to find.
Trade for Sidney Frisby, if Toews retired!))
You can use Yamamoto as No.7 d-man. I bet he can move the puck better than the once undefeated Vincent the Bed-Pooper Desharnais!
Bryanbryoil
Pray For Ukraine
- Sep 13, 2004
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That is about as we would expect I think. Depending on other options couid be enticing.
Bryanbryoil
Pray For Ukraine
- Sep 13, 2004
- 86,182
- 34,579
Ceci is serviceable and cheap while Foegele is decent dept but a little overpaid and only has 1 year left. Broberg is a guy that might take awhile to fully hit his stride but could be a solid NHLer for a long time.
