Offseason Thread Part II

[Richard88]

Those playoff paces equate to a difference of about 3 points based on a 25 game playoffs. Give me the higher upside and far better defensive player in Tatar even if Debrusk has averaged a couple of extra playoff points per game

Does Tatar really have the higher upside though? He'll be 31 in December and chances are his production will decrease over the course of his next contract. He's also not a great solution in the playoffs where we'll likely be facing physical teams like Dallas, Winnipeg, St. Louis, and Vegas again.

DeBrusk has his flaws but is still only 24 with room to grow, especially if he came to a team like Colorado who play a style that suits his game. We already saw Burakovsky go from a 25 point forward in Washington to a 64 point forward in Colorado. This seems like a pretty comparable situation.

EDIT: Just to clarify, I'm not against signing Tatar, I just think it's interesting to weigh up the two options. Tatar obviously would be convenient for not giving up assets and he'd be a nice fit as a playmaker next to Burakovsky and Kadri, but I do think there's a lot of validity to acquiring DeBrusk too.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Does Tatar really have the higher upside though? He'll be 31 in December and chances are his production will decrease over the course of his next contract. He's also not a great solution in the playoffs where we'll likely be facing physical teams like Dallas, Winnipeg, St. Louis, and Vegas again.

DeBrusk has his flaws but is still only 24 with room to grow, especially if he came to a team like Colorado who play a style that suits his game. We already saw Burakovsky go from a 25 point forward in Washington to a 64 point forward in Colorado. This seems like a pretty comparable situation.

EDIT: Just to clarify, I'm not against signing Tatar, I just think it's interesting to weigh up the two options. Tatar obviously would be convenient for not giving up assets and he'd be a nice fit as a playmaker next to Burakovsky and Kadri, but I do think there's a lot of validity to acquiring DeBrusk too.

I realize Debrusk is younger. I just have a hard time paying assets for Boston’s version of Compher.

 

[obZen]

Here are some guys (middle 6 forwards) in the 2M-3.5M pay range on other teams. They may or may not be available but I’m posting a bunch anyway. I was going to post some RD too but I don’t think Sakic even slightly considers acquiring somebody for a bottom pairing role who costs more than like 1.5M

- Victor Oloffson
- Chris Tierny
- Lars Eller
- Kasperi Kapanen
- Connor Brown (3.6 but it’s workable)
- Dylan Strome
- Radek Faska
- Oskar Lindblom
- Andrew Mangiapane
- Pavel Zacha
- Adrian Kempe

I would love to add Zacha.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

I want to post this early in the thread so people know where we are cap wise. If Newhook, O’Connor and MacDonald are called up and one of Sherwood/Matteau are sent down (which I believe we all think is what to expect) it leaves Colorado with a 22 man roster (space for 1) with $3,521,870 in cap space for that final spot.

If they plan to run a 22 man roster you can add 750K to that total but with the overage problems we ran into this year along with the couple of real tight days early last year where we had to suddenly trade Cole to ice a roster I don’t expect Sakic to base his roster on this. I think there will be plenty of times he carries a 22 man roster or less to bank space but I don’t think he makes things so tight that he has no choice but run with a 22 man roster. I expect him to be sure he can fit 23 on when needed.

So for clarification (these aren’t estimates. They are actualities which we can go by)

- Avs have $3,521,870 to spend on their final roster spot to complete a 23 man roster

- Avs have $4,271,870 to spend on their final roster spot to complete a 22 man roster

 

[Cousin Eddie]

To follow up on the last post here’s aln alternative which we’ll refer to as the “ @Richard88 Alternative”

Ive remained adamant that I don’t think JT Compher is going anywhere. But for those who want to believe, if we trade JT Compher as part of a deal to acquire a top 6 upgrade AND we call up Sherwood/Matteau as an extra skater the Avs will have exactly $6,271,870 in cap space for that JT Compher trade upgrade based on a 23 man roster.

 

[flyfysher]

DeBrusk should be on one of your lists. $3.625m AAV is just as workable as Connor Brown.

I don't think Sakic will be keen to trade big assets for expiring contracts so if there is a trade I'd expect the player to have several years left or that they are still RFA's.

Richard88, you're always coming up with trade proposals so I thought I'd ask your thoughts. I have been watching Sakic during the past FA periods and he's extremely deliberate. I also think he's predictable.

I toss out his trades under Roy since the direction he took the organization dramatically changed after Roy left.

I also discounted this FA since he was handicapped by the expansion and entry drafts and then the salary cap with re-signing Makar and Landeskog.

So, Sakic wanted to keep the core together. But it's also obvious with contracts expiring that the next group will be the 'go for the SC championship group.'

My questions are this:

1. What will be the Avs needs in terms of positions that Sakic wants to fill?
2. What will be the Avs' flexibility under the salary cap? How much can the Avs spend?
3. What other clubs will likely be in a position like the Isles were when Sakic approached Lou about Toews? My point is to identify other clubs that we can take advantage of under the circumstances. I would like Sakic to be able to move quickly rather than take his typical sit back, wait and see approach.
4. I think once MacKinnon is signed, then Sakic is going to address some of our needs.

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

 

[RoyIsALegend]

I’m more likely to believe Sakic trusts Newhook/Jost/Compher/Nichushkin all in the top 9 before he trusts Man MacDermid being an every night player.

A #6 RHD is a must.

Top 9 winger is probably a secondary priority, tbh.

 

[henchman21]

The forward group is down from last year, but 2nd/3rd line wings can be picked up at the deadline and usually on the cheaper side. I would not make that move right now since guys like Kase are off the market. Depth RD is a question that I have and there are not a ton of good options. It would be nice to get a savvy trade made there.

 

[hockeyfish]

I’m more likely to believe Sakic trusts Newhook/Jost/Compher/Nichushkin all in the top 9 before he trusts Man MacDermid being an every night player.

A #6 RHD is a must.

Top 9 winger is probably a secondary priority, tbh.

Maybe he really trusts Barron.

 

[henchman21]

Maybe he really trusts Barron.

He's likely to get his shot and that would fit with what the Avs have done with Compher and Jost through the years.

 

[Avs_19]

Not much about the Avs on 31 Thoughts. Just a brief recap of the moves. Friedman did say people told him they're a stealth suitor for Eichel but that's probably not an option now with the moves they've made.

 

[Richard88]

Richard88, you're always coming up with trade proposals so I thought I'd ask your thoughts. I have been watching Sakic during the past FA periods and he's extremely deliberate. I also think he's predictable.

I toss out his trades under Roy since the direction he took the organization dramatically changed after Roy left.

I also discounted this FA since he was handicapped by the expansion and entry drafts and then the salary cap with re-signing Makar and Landeskog.

So, Sakic wanted to keep the core together. But it's also obvious with contracts expiring that the next group will be the 'go for the SC championship group.'

My questions are this:

1. What will be the Avs needs in terms of positions that Sakic wants to fill?
2. What will be the Avs' flexibility under the salary cap? How much can the Avs spend?
3. What other clubs will likely be in a position like the Isles were when Sakic approached Lou about Toews? My point is to identify other clubs that we can take advantage of under the circumstances. I would like Sakic to be able to move quickly rather than take his typical sit back, wait and see approach.
4. I think once MacKinnon is signed, then Sakic is going to address some of our needs.

I agree that Sakic is extremely deliberate and quite predictable. I'd probably say that he's being influenced a lot by MacFarland who is a very logical and calculating guy.

1. 2LW is clearly a need and Sakic did make an offer to Saad and has also reportedly pursued Kase and Tatar. Acquiring a big 3rd pairing RHD who can PK is arguably an even bigger need as well.

2. @Cousin Eddie has already outlined the cap situation earlier in this thread. Basically we have $3.5m to spend to fill a 23 man roster, or ~$4.3m if we roll with a 22 man roster.

3. I haven't really studied other teams rosters yet so I'm not sure what teams to target exactly, but beyond the cap-squeezed teams I think it's likely that there are a few situations where a team wants to make a trade but need to move a contract to do it. For instance, Boston want a 2C to replace Krejci so they need to move a contract (eg. DeBrusk) to do it and you may be able to take advantage of that situation to get DeBrusk cheap. Whoever acquires Tarasenko will likely also want to move money out and that might create an opportunity. I'd also keep an eye on Winnipeg they need to resign Pionk and Copp, and if both of them want significant contracts Copp might become available. Lou also seems to be up to something but it doesn't seem to me that he's in cap trouble, yet.

4. Sakic has clearly set up the 2022 offseason to have maximal flexibility. He'll likely try to extend Mackinnon a year early so as to have a clear understanding of the cap ramifications going forward before he starts to fill out the rest of the lineup in UFA and/or via trades.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

What's a guy like Demers expected to get in terms of a contract?

 

[RampoSanta]

Can you have less than 20 players on the roster on off days to bank cap space?

For example could they send down all waiver exempt players? (Byram, Matsev, Newhook)

@Richard88 will know best but I think the cap is calculated on game days. Basically take take the 81.5M per 82G and you get nearly $1M of daily cap space. This is why you see sites reference a players daily cap hit.

 

[Richard88]

The forward group is down from last year, but 2nd/3rd line wings can be picked up at the deadline and usually on the cheaper side. I would not make that move right now since guys like Kase are off the market. Depth RD is a question that I have and there are not a ton of good options. It would be nice to get a savvy trade made there.

PK'ing 3rd pair Dmen can typically be had for cheaper than a top 6 winger at the deadline. I'd rather try to get a top 6 forward this offseason and give give opportunities to McKeown/Barron/MacDonald until the deadline. But ideally Sakic can solve both this offseason.

 

[Richard88]

I’m more likely to believe Sakic trusts Newhook/Jost/Compher/Nichushkin all in the top 9 before he trusts Man MacDermid being an every night player.

A #6 RHD is a must.

Top 9 winger is probably a secondary priority, tbh.

Sakic paid a 4th for MacDermid. It wouldn't surprise me if he expects him to be in the lineup more often than not.

 

[henchman21]

PK'ing 3rd pair Dmen can typically be had for cheaper than a top 6 winger at the deadline. I'd rather try to get a top 6 forward this offseason and give give opportunities to McKeown/Barron/MacDonald until the deadline. But ideally Sakic can solve both this offseason.

I'm not talking about a Nemeth type of guy. I'm talking about a guy that is a 4/5 who can play up when EJ inevitably gets hurt. A right shot Ryan Graves.

Also not saying the D is cheaper or more expensive... saying the middle 6 wings are not terribly expensive at deadlines so if it doesn't work with Newhook... it can still be solved later.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

What's a guy like Demers expected to get in terms of a contract?

Whatever it is I hope Sakic just pays it if he isn’t using that money on a forward.

Personally I’d rather put the 3.5M in cap space towards a guy like Tatar or basically anybody better than JTC to play in the middle six but if that isn’t Sakic’s plan, just pay Demers whatever to add some insurance. I was thinking he’d only get 1-2M but even if it’s 2.5 just pay it if you have no plans for that cap space. That still leaves 1M in space on opening day which can be banked to add essentially whatever you want by the deadline.

 

[Richard88]

Not much about the Avs on 31 Thoughts. Just a brief recap of the moves. Friedman did say people told him they're a stealth suitor for Eichel but that's probably not an option now with the moves they've made.

Eichel is definitely still an option. The moves they've made don't preclude that trade from happening.

Sakic could trade Kadri to Ottawa for high OTT 2nd + OTT B prospect, and then flip those assets to Buffalo in a trade package that looks something like this:

COL 2023 1st
Newhook
Compher
Kaut/Bowers
OTT 2nd
OTT B prospect

That's a haul that includes two picks in the 26-36 range, a bluechip prospect, two B prospects, and a roster player.

Avs do have the capspace to pull that trade off too, as shown below. You'd need to give Kaut or Ranta a shot but Eichel is a one-man line so that should be manageable at least until the deadline. Or you could ask Buffalo to include Olofsson in the deal with some retention and there's your 2nd line forward.

 

[Avs_19]

What's a guy like Demers expected to get in terms of a contract?

Probably next to nothing at this point. He might be a decent pick up for the third pair.

 

[Richard88]

Can you have less than 20 players on the roster on off days to bank cap space?

For example could they send down all waiver exempt players? (Byram, Matsev, Newhook)

Avs did that a lot last year and it would be surprising if they didn't do it again this year. There were many times people were surprised to see "Logan O'Connor sent down" only to be called back up again a day or two later. Same happened with Gilbert and Sherwood and a few others.

@Richard88 will know best but I think the cap is calculated on game days. Basically take take the 81.5M per 82G and you get nearly $1M of daily cap space. This is why you see sites reference a players daily cap hit.

@henchman24 and @S E P H are the true cap MVP's around here

 

[flyfysher]

I agree that Sakic is extremely deliberate and quite predictable. I'd probably say that he's being influenced a lot by MacFarland who is a very logical and calculating guy.

1. 2LW is clearly a need and Sakic did make an offer to Saad and has also reportedly pursued Kase and Tatar. Acquiring a big 3rd pairing RHD who can PK is arguably an even bigger need as well.

2. @Cousin Eddie has already outlined the cap situation earlier in this thread. Basically we have $3.5m to spend to fill a 23 man roster, or ~$4.3m if we roll with a 22 man roster.

3. I haven't really studied other teams rosters yet so I'm not sure what teams to target exactly, but beyond the cap-squeezed teams I think it's likely that there are a few situations where a team wants to make a trade but need to move a contract to do it. For instance, Boston want a 2C to replace Krejci so they need to move a contract (eg. DeBrusk) to do it and you may be able to take advantage of that situation to get DeBrusk cheap. Whoever acquires Tarasenko will likely also want to move money out and that might create an opportunity. I'd also keep an eye on Winnipeg they need to resign Pionk and Copp, and if both of them want significant contracts Copp might become available. Lou also seems to be up to something but it doesn't seem to me that he's in cap trouble, yet.

4. Sakic has clearly set up the 2022 offseason to have maximal flexibility. He'll likely try to extend Mackinnon a year early so as to have a clear understanding of the cap ramifications going forward before he starts to fill out the rest of the lineup in UFA and/or via trades.

Thank you for the thorough reply!

 

[Richard88]

I'm not talking about a Nemeth type of guy. I'm talking about a guy that is a 4/5 who can play up when EJ inevitably gets hurt. A right shot Ryan Graves.

Also not saying the D is cheaper or more expensive... saying the middle 6 wings are not terribly expensive at deadlines so if it doesn't work with Newhook... it can still be solved later.

Who would you be targeting via trade for that RHD spot right now? I know you like Manson but he'll be very expensive and likely has to wait until the deadline.

 

[Richard88]

Thank you for the thorough reply!

You're welcome