Offseason Thread Part II
- Thread starter Balthazar
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- Apr 25, 2006
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UncleRisto
Not Great, Bob!
Almost 7 000 posts in the last thread, and the board wasn't engulfed by Cthulhu. Something's up.
Raucherhusten
Unselfish Gif Lover
Half of us is bored, the other half is mad. That's what's up.
Cousin Eddie
You Serious Clark?
- Nov 3, 2006
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I want to post this early in the thread so people know where we are cap wise. If Newhook, O’Connor and MacDonald are called up and one of Sherwood/Matteau are sent down (which I believe we all think is what to expect) it leaves Colorado with a 22 man roster (space for 1) with $3,521,870 in cap space for that final spot.
If they plan to run a 22 man roster you can add 750K to that total but with the overage problems we ran into this year along with the couple of real tight days early last year where we had to suddenly trade Cole to ice a roster I don’t expect Sakic to base his roster on this. I think there will be plenty of times he carries a 22 man roster or less to bank space but I don’t think he makes things so tight that he has no choice but run with a 22 man roster. I expect him to be sure he can fit 23 on when needed.
So for clarification (these aren’t estimates. They are actualities which we can go by)
- Avs have $3,521,870 to spend on their final roster spot to complete a 23 man roster
- Avs have $4,271,870 to spend on their final roster spot to complete a 22 man roster
If they plan to run a 22 man roster you can add 750K to that total but with the overage problems we ran into this year along with the couple of real tight days early last year where we had to suddenly trade Cole to ice a roster I don’t expect Sakic to base his roster on this. I think there will be plenty of times he carries a 22 man roster or less to bank space but I don’t think he makes things so tight that he has no choice but run with a 22 man roster. I expect him to be sure he can fit 23 on when needed.
So for clarification (these aren’t estimates. They are actualities which we can go by)
- Avs have $3,521,870 to spend on their final roster spot to complete a 23 man roster
- Avs have $4,271,870 to spend on their final roster spot to complete a 22 man roster
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Cousin Eddie
You Serious Clark?
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Here are some guys (middle 6 forwards) in the 2M-3.5M pay range on other teams. They may or may not be available but I’m posting a bunch anyway. I was going to post some RD too but I don’t think Sakic even slightly considers acquiring somebody for a bottom pairing role who costs more than like 1.5M
- Victor Oloffson
- Chris Tierny
- Lars Eller
- Kasperi Kapanen
- Connor Brown (3.6 but it’s workable)
- Dylan Strome
- Radek Faska
- Oskar Lindblom
- Andrew Mangiapane
- Pavel Zacha
- Adrian Kempe
- Victor Oloffson
- Chris Tierny
- Lars Eller
- Kasperi Kapanen
- Connor Brown (3.6 but it’s workable)
- Dylan Strome
- Radek Faska
- Oskar Lindblom
- Andrew Mangiapane
- Pavel Zacha
- Adrian Kempe
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Cousin Eddie
You Serious Clark?
- Nov 3, 2006
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Metallo
NWOBHM forever \m/
Can you have less than 20 players on the roster on off days to bank cap space?
For example could they send down all waiver exempt players? (Byram, Matsev, Newhook)
For example could they send down all waiver exempt players? (Byram, Matsev, Newhook)
Cousin Eddie
You Serious Clark?
- Nov 3, 2006
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One more post on the numbers since I know people will like this one. I have said many times I don’t think JT Compher is going anywhere. But for those who want to believe, if we trade JT Compher as part of a deal to acquire a top 6 upgrade AND we call up Sherwood/Matteau as an extra skater the Avs will have exactly $6,271,870 in cap space for that JT Compher trade upgrade based on a 23 man roster.
Here are some forwards who fall into that 3.6M - 6.27M price range
- Dylan Larkin
- Timo Meier
- Mats Zucarello
- Nik Ehlers
- Phil Forsberg
- TJ Oshie
- Anthony Mantha
- Tomas Hertl
- Travis Konecny
- Gus Nyquist
- Jo Drouin
- Mikael Backlund
- Patrik Hornqvist
- Ondrej Palat
- Jason Zucker
- Bo Horvat
- Max Domi
Here are some forwards who fall into that 3.6M - 6.27M price range
- Dylan Larkin
- Timo Meier
- Mats Zucarello
- Nik Ehlers
- Phil Forsberg
- TJ Oshie
- Anthony Mantha
- Tomas Hertl
- Travis Konecny
- Gus Nyquist
- Jo Drouin
- Mikael Backlund
- Patrik Hornqvist
- Ondrej Palat
- Jason Zucker
- Bo Horvat
- Max Domi
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Cousin Eddie
You Serious Clark?
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Richard88
John 3:16
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Richard88
John 3:16
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DeBrusk should be on one of your lists. $3.625m AAV is just as workable as Connor Brown.
I don't think Sakic will be keen to trade big assets for expiring contracts so if there is a trade I'd expect the player to have several years left or that they are still RFA's.
Richard88
John 3:16
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DeBrusk
Zucker
Domi
Drouin
Tierney
That's likely Sakic's list right now. Players who have scored at a top 6 level before but who are available due to cap reasons and/or due to under-performing on their current teams.
Sakic needs a top 6 forward but doesn't have much in the way of trade chips to bargain with, other than B prospects and some capspace. Gotta get creative and take a gamble most likely - unless he prefers to roll with what we have in the absence of good options and wait until we're in-season to make a move as players go on the market for various reasons.
Zucker
Domi
Drouin
Tierney
That's likely Sakic's list right now. Players who have scored at a top 6 level before but who are available due to cap reasons and/or due to under-performing on their current teams.
Sakic needs a top 6 forward but doesn't have much in the way of trade chips to bargain with, other than B prospects and some capspace. Gotta get creative and take a gamble most likely - unless he prefers to roll with what we have in the absence of good options and wait until we're in-season to make a move as players go on the market for various reasons.
Richard88
John 3:16
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Sakic wants to maintain tonnes of flexibility in the 2022 off-season and acquiring a Drouin or Zucker contract which extends to 2023 would get in the way of that plan a bit.
That said I doubt Sakic wants to trade key pieces for another 1 year rental.
With that in mind a forward like DeBrusk makes the most sense. You get the one year term so as to not jeopardise the cap flexibility you have in 2022, and you ALSO still own his rights as an RFA at that point so that you won't lose him for nothing after paying decent assets for him. His team is keen to trade him and he has a perfectly manageable caphit without any money needing to go out. You possibly get him at below market value as Boston want to trade him, then you have him in a contract year and can either resign him in 2022 or trade him to recoup assets spent to acquire him.
That said I doubt Sakic wants to trade key pieces for another 1 year rental.
With that in mind a forward like DeBrusk makes the most sense. You get the one year term so as to not jeopardise the cap flexibility you have in 2022, and you ALSO still own his rights as an RFA at that point so that you won't lose him for nothing after paying decent assets for him. His team is keen to trade him and he has a perfectly manageable caphit without any money needing to go out. You possibly get him at below market value as Boston want to trade him, then you have him in a contract year and can either resign him in 2022 or trade him to recoup assets spent to acquire him.
Richard88
John 3:16
- Jun 29, 2019
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Numerous Boston fans in the DeBrusk to Colorado trade thread on the main board seem to be in agreement that something in the ballpark of Bowers/Kaut/2nd + 3rd would be a fair value for DeBrusk.
At that price it's definitely in Sakic's wheelhouse. You get a struggling top 6 forward who can possibly rebound on a new team in a contract year, in exchange for a 3rd and a prospect who hasn't been able to crack your lineup yet in 3-4 years since being drafted.
If DeBrusk has a rebound season then you can easily recoup those assets and more - in fact you could probably get back most of that value even if he has a middling season as there's always a GM willing to roll the dice on a 25 year old RFA with a 27 goal season in him.
Alternatively you simply resign him in 2022 knowing that he's a good fit for the team and fill a forward spot for a couple of more years.
At that price it's definitely in Sakic's wheelhouse. You get a struggling top 6 forward who can possibly rebound on a new team in a contract year, in exchange for a 3rd and a prospect who hasn't been able to crack your lineup yet in 3-4 years since being drafted.
If DeBrusk has a rebound season then you can easily recoup those assets and more - in fact you could probably get back most of that value even if he has a middling season as there's always a GM willing to roll the dice on a 25 year old RFA with a 27 goal season in him.
Alternatively you simply resign him in 2022 knowing that he's a good fit for the team and fill a forward spot for a couple of more years.
Cousin Eddie
You Serious Clark?
- Nov 3, 2006
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I personally just can’t justify spending assets on him when Tatar is available. Here are their last two seasons
| Tatar | 19/20 - 20/21 | Debrusk |
| L | Position | L |
| 118 | GP | 106 |
| 1857:21 | TOI | 1653:46 |
| 32 | Goals | 24 |
| 59 | Total Assists | 25 |
| 30 | First Assists | 14 |
| 29 | Second Assists | 11 |
| 91 | Total Points | 49 |
Second list(this one) is what we need. Based on the off-season expect from the list one.
Richard88
John 3:16
- Jun 29, 2019
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Fair point, I definitely see the appeal in Tatar as well.
However, consider that Tatar reportedly wants around $5m on his next deal. That doesn't fit with our cap structure as we'd need to send someone packing to make room (not that I'd be against that as you know, but it seems unrealistic for Sakic to do that).
Tatar most likely also wants term, which I don't think Sakic will be keen to give out, unless perhaps if it's 2 years max. This is Tatar's final big payday though so I doubt that he settles for just 2 years.
Now, consider that DeBrusk is an RFA in a years time. You can basically trade Boston a 2nd/prospect + 3rd package, and then very likely flip him in 2022 for a very similar, or better, return when he's an RFA. Chances are that he'll be a good fit on the Avs given the style he plays, and he'll also have the incentive to rebound given that he's in a contract year. So in contrast to the Tatar signing you could basically treat DeBrusk as a one year rental who you get assets back for at the end of the year. Or you just resign him if he does well as he'll still be in his prime at 25 years old.
I suppose you could also sign Tatar to a multi-year deal and then trade him next offseason, but that would be a really good way of ensuring that UFA's are reluctant to sign with your team in the future without NTC's.
Lastly, you posted some good stats there which make a good case for Tatar over DeBrusk, but I'd counter that by pointing out their respective playoff stats which ultimately will be far more important for the Avs than regular season stats.
As you can see below DeBrusk has paced for 22 goals (over an 82 game season) in the playoffs, and 36 points which is right in line with his $3.625m caphit.
Conversely, Tatar has been severely underwhelming in the playoffs, not at all justifying the $5.3m caphit he's had the last 4 years. He's paced for 12+12 and 25 points, well below the value of his contract. He's also been a healthy scratch in the playoffs multiple times in the last 3-4 years.
Cousin Eddie
You Serious Clark?
- Nov 3, 2006
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Those playoff paces equate to a difference of about 3 points based on a 25 game playoffs. Give me the higher upside and far better defensive player in Tatar even if Debrusk has averaged a couple of extra playoff points per game
Would love it, but I'm sure Dallas ain't interested.
Sure he has an unannounced deal with the Islanders
Richard88
John 3:16
- Jun 29, 2019
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Gofnut999;2598416 said:
Dvorak to Boston makes sense as they're otherwise rolling with Charlie Coyle at 2C, but I don't see what Arizona would want with DeBrusk given that they're in a tear-it-down rebuild. Maybe a 3-way trade would work though where everyone is happy:
To Boston: Dvorak
To Colorado: DeBrusk
To Arizona: Bowers + COL 3rd (price for DeBrusk), plus something extra from Boston to bridge the value between DeBrusk/Dvorak
Boston get a cost-controlled 2C to replace Krejci, at the cost of DeBrusk+, also getting rid of a player who's under-performed two years in a row. To Colorado: DeBrusk
To Arizona: Bowers + COL 3rd (price for DeBrusk), plus something extra from Boston to bridge the value between DeBrusk/Dvorak
Colorado get a 2nd line LW at a manageable trade price.
Arizona get a bunch more futures for their rebuild, instead of getting DeBrusk. Keep in mind that chances are that DeBrusk probably wouldn't have a rebound year on a terrible Arizona team, so his value is likely to stagnate or drop. One more year of low production and he'd be an RFA coming off 3 bad years in a row. It would be far better for Arizona to get pure futures for Dvorak than to get an under-performing guy who's value would likely continue to drop on that team.
Richard88
John 3:16
- Jun 29, 2019
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