Speculation: Offseason Thread II: ideas, proposals, general roster discussion

[Kevo22363]

I guess I've accepted after a night's rest that unless a trade happens, this is the roster we're going to battle with. Blame the virus, fine, blame offer sheets or an internal cap, fine, but I guess I'll keep coming back for more. Happy 20th Jackets fans. Prove me wrong Jarmo, please.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Just my opinion but if Koivu is our 3C we are screwed, I would rather have Wennberg at that point. Koivu was 4C for the Wild in the playoffs and our centers are much better than theirs. I hope Grigorenko locks down the 3C spot. Our team can’t score so we need to keep guys in the lineup that can (or have the potential to) like Bemstrom. There also is no point in playing Foudy/Bemstrom on the 4th line, at that point send them to Cleveland.

Also I’m not sure why Texier is on our top line, what has he done to deserve it?

Who else are you gonna play there?

 

[Cowumbus]

Who else are you gonna play there?

Exactly.

We don’t have anyone to play there. Bem/Tex/Foudy all are not ready/good enough to play there. But I don’t think 42 has done anything better than the other two guys to deserve it. And I thought Texier was drafted to play C? Didn’t Torts say he was going to try him at C? Too many middle 6 guys on the roster.

 

[majormajor]

No no no, Pronman is actually his only source!

@Caser said that the three-year offer to Chinakhov would include this season, evidently KHL contracts include the current year. So if Chinakhov signed that (it appears he won't) then Pronman's timetable is wrong. Pronman never seems to get anything right with this org's prospects.

 

[majormajor]

Just my opinion but if Koivu is our 3C we are screwed, I would rather have Wennberg at that point. Koivu was 4C for the Wild in the playoffs and our centers are much better than theirs. I hope Grigorenko locks down the 3C spot. Our team can’t score so we need to keep guys in the lineup that can (or have the potential to) like Bemstrom. There also is no point in playing Foudy/Bemstrom on the 4th line, at that point send them to Cleveland.

Also I’m not sure why Texier is on our top line, what has he done to deserve it?

Texier is easy to pencil in because he's at worst a beast on the puck that complements topliners well, and at best he's developing into a guy that can score at a topline pace. There's top lines all-around the league with guys there because they win puck battles and get pucks to the shooters. Zach Hyman in Toronto is a perfect case in point. And yeah in all of those cases there are a bunch of fans who miss the point and say "this guy isn't a topliner!" as if everyone on the topline is supposed to be a big scorer.

I'd also have Foudy and Bemstrom playing much of the year in Cleveland, by the way.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

In a vacuum, love the Koivu add. What I don’t like is another player whose ice time has to be managed/probably only going to play in particular situations. Koivu used to be the exact opposite kind of player but no longer.

It was the issue with our center situation before, where Jenner, Wennberg and Nash don’t provide the kind of play at center that maximizes the talent of enough of the wings.

 

[Cowumbus]

Texier is easy to pencil in because he's at worst a beast on the puck that complements topliners well, and at best he's developing into a guy that can score at a topline pace. There's top lines all-around the league with guys there because they win puck battles and get pucks to the shooters. Zach Hyman in Toronto is a perfect case in point. And yeah in all of those cases there are a bunch of fans who miss the point and say "this guy isn't a topliner!" as if everyone on the topline is supposed to be a big scorer.

I'd also have Foudy and Bemstrom playing much of the year in Cleveland, by the way.

Thank you for projecting your idea of me misconstruing what it ‘means to be a top line player.’

I am simply asking why does Texier get that treatment when Bemstrom scores at the same rate? Jenner pretty much too. If you look at the stats, Bemstrom across from Atkinson with anyone at C is one of our better line combos in both scoring and goals against. Foligno and Bjorkstrand play well together too.

71-18-28
52-16-13
14-42/29-29/42
38-9-20

 

[Kellen]

Thank you for projecting your idea of me misconstruing what it ‘means to be a top line player.’

I am simply asking why does Texier get that treatment when Bemstrom scores at the same rate? Jenner pretty much too. If you look at the stats, Bemstrom across from Atkinson with anyone at C is one of our better line combos in both scoring and goals against. Foligno and Bjorkstrand play well together too.

71-18-28
52-16-13
14-42/29-29/42
38-9-20

We need another top 6 winger in the worst way. Foligno can’t be up there.

 

[majormajor]

I am simply asking why does Texier get that treatment when Bemstrom scores at the same rate? Jenner pretty much too. If you look at the stats, Bemstrom across from Atkinson with anyone at C is one of our better line combos in both scoring and goals against.

Per minute Bemstrom didn't score at the same rate. Texier had about a 50% higher per minute scoring rate than both Jenner and Bemstrom. It is true that Bemstrom across from Atkinson worked for a few games, but it was just 35 minutes TOI, not a lot to go on.

When I'm looking at who should play with Dubois, I look at three things.

1. How did Dubois' line perform with each winger on it, in terms of raw goals results, (GF and GA).
The best GF-GA results there were definitely with Bjorkstrand and Foligno. Very little scoring with Atkinson, not great results for Bemstrom, and he was even with Tex in somewhat limited minutes (in the regular season).

2. How did Dubois' line perform with each winger on it, in terms of expected goals. This is more reliable in small sample sizes.
This doesn't change any of the conclusions from just looking at the raw goals results, except Dubois+Texier was actually pretty good - 56.46% xGF%.

3. How was Dubois' individual scoring with each of those players?
Dubois scored at the same very high rate (2.56-2.60 P/60) with each of Foligno, Texier, and Bjorkstrand.
Nyquist - 2.21 P/60 - meh
Bemstrom - 1.99 P/60
Atkinson - 1.15 P/60 - what more do people need to see to say that there's zero chemistry there?

I don't consider any of this strong evidence of what will work next year, this sorts of WOWY stats change year to year. But I've found it's more informative than going on biases about who is a topline type of player, or going on who Dubois played with back with Panarin, etc...

Edit:

We need another top 6 winger in the worst way. Foligno can’t be up there.

Kellen perhaps I should have directed this more at you. Foligno has helped Dubois out more than people realize.

 

[majormajor]

In a vacuum, love the Koivu add. What I don’t like is another player whose ice time has to be managed/probably only going to play in particular situations. Koivu used to be the exact opposite kind of player but no longer.

It was the issue with our center situation before, where Jenner, Wennberg and Nash don’t provide the kind of play at center that maximizes the talent of enough of the wings.

I'm less worried about that now with Domi here. We had to worry about our many 3Cs not helping our wingers much because we didn't have a 2C to do that.

If there's an issue now it's that it is a big messy bottom six group and I have no idea how it shakes out. Having lots of potential centers is good but the wings are overflowing too.

 

[thebus88]

I think a lot depends what they want to do with the 3rd line center spot and what they want to do with Jenner. Do they want to have Jenner or Foligno as 3C, or it go to a guy like Grigorenko?

Jenner very well could be moved up to that top line LW spot. He does many things well that compliment the games of Dubois and Bjorkstrand, digging in the corners and very willing and good in front of the net. Nyquist is another option. So is Texier.

I play Jenner over Foligno, no way he should be getting 4th line minutes.

I like Texier more, but, at this point I play him and Bemstrom over Atkinson in scoring roles.

 

[Cowumbus]

Per minute Bemstrom didn't score at the same rate. Texier had about a 50% higher per minute scoring rate than both Jenner and Bemstrom. It is true that Bemstrom across from Atkinson worked for a few games, but it was just 35 minutes TOI, not a lot to go on.

First before I say anything, I take all of these stats with a grain of salt. It has Devin Shore as one of our best players in points / min. It matters who you play with...

Anyways, I’m not saying Bemstrom should play beside Dubois on the first line, I’m just saying that Cam and Bemstrom have good chemistry regardless of who was at C whether it be Dubois, Wennberg or someone else.

When I'm looking at who should play with Dubois, I look at three things.

1. How did Dubois' line perform with each winger on it, in terms of raw goals results, (GF and GA).
The best GF-GA results there were definitely with Bjorkstrand and Foligno. Very little scoring with Atkinson, not great results for Bemstrom, and he was even with Tex in somewhat limited minutes (in the regular season).

This is why I am saying, why are people saying Texier will play 1LW? If you need a Hyman type player, Foligno should be the one to do that. Foligno and Bjorkstrand work well with Dubois.

2. How did Dubois' line perform with each winger on it, in terms of expected goals. This is more reliable in small sample sizes.
This doesn't change any of the conclusions from just looking at the raw goals results, except Dubois+Texier was actually pretty good - 56.46% xGF%.

3. How was Dubois' individual scoring with each of those players?
Dubois scored at the same very high rate (2.56-2.60 P/60) with each of Foligno, Texier, and Bjorkstrand.
Nyquist - 2.21 P/60 - meh
Bemstrom - 1.99 P/60
Atkinson - 1.15 P/60 - what more do people need to see to say that there's zero chemistry there?

I don't consider any of this strong evidence of what will work next year, this sorts of WOWY stats change year to year. But I've found it's more informative than going on biases about who is a topline type of player, or going on who Dubois played with back with Panarin, etc...

Edit:


Kellen perhaps I should have directed this more at you. Foligno has helped Dubois out more than people realize.

That’s why if you look at my lines above I had
71-18-28 vs other teams top lines
52-16-13 as a scoring second line
14-42-29 skilled two way 3rd line
38-9-20 defense first safe fourth line

 

[thebus88]

Jenner - Dubois - Bjorkstrand
Texier - Domi - Nyquist
Bemstrom(Grig) - Foligno(Grig) - Atkinson
Foudy(Robinson) - Koivu - Nash

Werenski - Jones
Kukan - Savard
Gavrikov - Peeke
Bayreuther - Clendening

 

[majormajor]

First before I say anything, I take all of these stats with a grain of salt. It has Devin Shore as one of our best players in points / min. It matters who you play with...

Anyways, I’m not saying Bemstrom should play beside Dubois on the first line, I’m just saying that Cam and Bemstrom have good chemistry regardless of who was at C whether it be Dubois, Wennberg or someone else.

The stats are much more informative if you focus on the results where you have a good sample size. You can pretty much ignore anyone who is under 10 games played (Shore, Foudy, Matteau, etc...) and ignore any combinations that only played a few games together, and that includes Cam+Bemstrom. Maybe there was some magic there that they can keep but we can't tell from this. You also can't say "regardless of who was at C" because that divides their 35 minutes together across multiple centers and the sample size gets even smaller for each center with them, to the point of complete randomness.

But yeah, even with 300 minutes it's still something you'd take with a grain of salt, I won't pretend that last year's combos will have the same results next year.

This is why I am saying, why are people saying Texier will play 1LW? If you need a Hyman type player, Foligno should be the one to do that. Foligno and Bjorkstrand work well with Dubois.

That’s why if you look at my lines above I had
71-18-28 vs other teams top lines
52-16-13 as a scoring second line
14-42-29 skilled two way 3rd line
38-9-20 defense first safe fourth line

Yeah I'd be fine with Foligno as Dubois' LW. It worked great last year. The reason I'm wanting Foligno with Domi is that Habs fans often spoke of how important Andrew Shaw was for dragging Domi into the fight, that he needs some grittier linemates. But who knows, the lines you presented might work really well. Maybe Cam and Bemstrom really do click with Domi. It works in terms of the playmaking and shooting combination but I'm not sure they won't get run over. Domi is chippy but he's not very strong.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Portzline getting excited

 

[majormajor]

Portzline getting excited

I suppose if we hadn't just unloaded our spare D and hadn't just acquired Grigorenko, Domi, and Koivu, and Roslovic wasn't a weak low-scoring center, then I'd be excited too.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I suppose if we hadn't just unloaded our spare D and hadn't just acquired Grigorenko, Domi, and Koivu, and Roslovic wasn't a weak low-scoring center, then I'd be excited too.

I wouldn’t. He’s not that good. He would be our 4th line C or 4th line RW

 

[DJA]

Good thing is that it appears CBJ not involved here at all.

 

[MAHJ71]

Dater but...



sounds like it’s down to Boston & Nashville

 

[Johansen2Foligno]

And the Colombus Blue Jackets

 

[MAHJ71]

Portzline getting excited

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Rozlovic insider on the case

 

[ViD]

Something tells me Hall’s contract will not be as big as some people expect

 

[CBJWerenski8]

 

[DJA]

then Winnipeg will bail them out by taking Schmidt

And PIT will take Fleury back at 50%