I'm not seeing a situation like we did with Zherdev. $500,000 is not that much of a chasm.
Nor am I. But remember, when the two sides couldn't reach agreement there, the Rangers chose to let Zherdev go; they walked away from the arbitrator's award.
My guess on possible outcomes in order of likelihood?
- 50% Rangers sign him to a 5-year deal with an AAV between $4.75MM and $5.00MM
- 30% Rangers sign him to a 3-4 year deal somewhere in the $4.25-$4.75MM range, depending on the years.
- 15% They go to arbitration, and the Rangers accept the arbitrator's award for 1 year, making him an RFA again next year.
- 5% they trade him prior to arbitration.
(Note that if they go to arbitration, I think it a lot more likely that they THEN trade him during the year than if it would be if they sign him to a multiyear deal.)
I don't see any scenario where they walk away from an award as they did with Zherdev.