Offseason 2023 II - The Trotz Era Begins

[herzausstein]

NHL announced Seattle expansion almost 2.5 years (Dec 2018) before they started in the 21-22 season. We will have plenty of time to argue who stays who goes after an announcement is made. Till then we should chill and enjoy the ride that this season will be.

Novak could be traded this year
Askarov could prove dominant at the AHL level
Trotz could go nuts and trade Jusse pushing us into full rebuild if things go too sideways this year
We could somehow end up with 1st overall pick
We could somehow end up with the cup
No clue who will be on the team in 3 seasons (at a minimum) or how the team will perform between now and then.

 

[Armourboy]

Yeah at this point they aren't going to start until a facility is in place to say the least and all of the ownership stuff is locked in. They aren't going to let what happened last time with Atlanta happen there again because if they go back this time they know for sure if it fails again there is zero hope for that market.

A lot of it long term will come down to if Askarov is what everyone thought he could be when he was drafted. If he is I think these expectations of him not starting for 5-6 years isn't going to happen, he's going to be pushing before then. Now if he is just a really really good goalie in the vein of a Saros or a Rinne then yeah probably. If he is in the area of a generational goalie it won't take that long.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Yeah at this point they aren't going to start until a facility is in place to say the least and all of the ownership stuff is locked in. They aren't going to let what happened last time with Atlanta happen there again because if they go back this time they know for sure if it fails again there is zero hope for that market.

A lot of it long term will come down to if Askarov is what everyone thought he could be when he was drafted. If he is I think these expectations of him not starting for 5-6 years isn't going to happen, he's going to be pushing before then. Now if he is just a really really good goalie in the vein of a Saros or a Rinne then yeah probably. If he is in the area of a generational goalie it won't take that long.

"Just a really really good goalie in the vein of a Saros or Rinne"? I am definitely on a very different wavelength wrt to Askarov. He is "fun to watch", but he's barely competent in the AHL. Albeit still very young, with time to grow. To me, there's a very good chance he never becomes an NHL starter at all, let alone a good one, let alone one of the best in the game like Saros or Rinne. If he's pushing to be a starter at all in 5 or 6 years, we won the lottery. I don't go around expecting to win many lotteries.

 

[AintLifeGrand]

Yeah at this point they aren't going to start until a facility is in place to say the least and all of the ownership stuff is locked in. They aren't going to let what happened last time with Atlanta happen there again because if they go back this time they know for sure if it fails again there is zero hope for that market.

A lot of it long term will come down to if Askarov is what everyone thought he could be when he was drafted. If he is I think these expectations of him not starting for 5-6 years isn't going to happen, he's going to be pushing before then. Now if he is just a really really good goalie in the vein of a Saros or a Rinne then yeah probably. If he is in the area of a generational goalie it won't take that long.

Not true- Atlanta could use State Farm or Gas South as a stop gap if all of a sudden we end up as a relocation target

TBH I don't want either Saros or Askarov- The Atlanta team should be built to be the antithesis of Nashville with a priority on speed and skill

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Not true- Atlanta could use State Farm or Gas South as a stop gap if all of a sudden we end up as a relocation target

TBH I don't want either Saros or Askarov- The Atlanta team should be built to be the antithesis of Nashville with a priority on speed and skill

We will all certainly cheer for you to succeed in becoming the Atlanta GM.

 

[Armourboy]

"Just a really really good goalie in the vein of a Saros or Rinne"? I am definitely on a very different wavelength wrt to Askarov. He is "fun to watch", but he's barely competent in the AHL. Albeit still very young, with time to grow. To me, there's a very good chance he never becomes an NHL starter at all, let alone a good one, let alone one of the best in the game like Saros or Rinne. If he's pushing to be a starter at all in 5 or 6 years, we won the lottery. I don't go around expecting to win many lotteries.

Yes as good as Rinne and Saros are they are a step down from generational talent. You draft a goalie as high as we did in the draft because you think he may have that level in him. Whether he does or not is yet to be seen, but you will have a pretty good idea of what you are looking at by the time you need to pay Saros.

For a guy that barely played in the previous season he had a pretty solid first one in the AHL. He has some things to work on like all young players do, even the forwards everyone is chomping at the bit to see in the NHL.

 

[triggrman]

Yes as good as Rinne and Saros are they are a step down from generational talent. You draft a goalie as high as we did in the draft because you think he may have that level in him. Whether he does or not is yet to be seen, but you will have a pretty good idea of what you are looking at by the time you need to pay Saros.

For a guy that barely played in the previous season he had a pretty solid first one in the AHL. He has some things to work on like all young players do, even the forwards everyone is chomping at the bit to see in the NHL.

He put up the best numbers for rookie goalies in the AHL, right?

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

He put up the best numbers for rookie goalies in the AHL, right?

I wouldn't say there was any clear "best"... Murray, Bussi, Holm, Wallstedt, Ersson had at least comparable numbers, Askarov was 5th in GAA and tied with others for 2nd in SvPCT at .911. There were only 11 rookies who even appeared in 20 or more games, and lots of goalie stats are dependent on team defensive play anyway, of course. He definitely had a very nice rookie season, regardless. Not being able to say he was clearly "best" should be no real indictment.

Of course, his stats drop to basically "middle of the pack" if you go beyond the "rookie" category and just include all starting goalies. Anyway, all to the good for him last season. You can probably count the number of future NHL starters playing in the AHL last season on one hand, he is certainly in the running to be one of them.

 

[herzausstein]

I wouldn't say there was any clear "best"... Murray, Bussi, Holm, Wallstedt, Ersson had at least comparable numbers, Askarov was 5th in GAA and tied with others for 2nd in SvPCT at .911. There were only 11 rookies who even appeared in 20 or more games, and lots of goalie stats are dependent on team defensive play anyway, of course. He definitely had a very nice rookie season, regardless. Not being able to say he was clearly "best" should be no real indictment.

Of course, his stats drop to basically "middle of the pack" if you go beyond the "rookie" category and just include all starting goalies. Anyway, all to the good for him last season. You can probably count the number of future NHL starters playing in the AHL last season on one hand, he is certainly in the running to be one of them.

Bussi - 25
Murray - 25
Holm - 24 (25 in November)
Ersson - 23 (24 in October)

Wallstedt and Askarov - 21 (by end of year). Askarov played 10 more games then Wallstedt.

I would personally say Askarov compares favorably to his fellow rookies many of which were a couple years older and played several games less than him.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Bussi - 25
Murray - 25
Holm - 24 (25 in November)
Ersson - 23 (24 in October)

Wallstedt and Askarov - 21 (by end of year). Askarov played 10 more games then Wallstedt.

I would personally say Askarov compares favorably to his fellow rookies many of which were a couple years older and played several games less than him.

Oh for sure, agreed. There just aren't that many true starter prospects in the AHL at all. Well, there are only 32 jobs in the NHL to begin with. So turnover and opportunity is limited. Wolf is easily the best goalie prospect in the AHL, then Wallstedt and Askarov are the next level down, possibly with Hofer and maybe somebody else I can't think of at the moment. But that's typical. There just aren't that many guys who are going to pan out at that level, period.

I should add; those ages should tell people something also about the timeline here. The idea that Askarov is 5-6 yrs off challenging for a starting spot shouldn't be that surprising when the best ROOKIE minor league goalies are already 23-25.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

The premise of my Expansion/Saros post was idiotic, of course. Reading up, it does sound certain the Atlanta Granders aren't going to come in the next 2 years. So we're going to be extending Saros before that comes up, regardless. We'll see a lot more of what happens with him and Askarov before that happens. I do hope it becomes one of our "hot topics" in the future though... because that means Saros "stays awesome", while at the same time Askarov "becomes awesome". You can't really lose when you end up with these kinds of predicaments, right?

 

[herzausstein]

The premise of my Expansion/Saros post was idiotic, of course. Reading up, it does sound certain the Atlanta Granders aren't going to come in the next 2 years. So we're going to be extending Saros before that comes up, regardless. We'll see a lot more of what happens with him and Askarov before that happens. I do hope it becomes one of our "hot topics" in the future though... because that means Saros "stays awesome", while at the same time Askarov "becomes awesome". You can't really lose when you end up with these kinds of predicaments, right?

There will probably be so much roster turnover before the next expansion draft there really isnt any point in worrying. In 3-4 years, Josi will be 36-37 and i could see us asking him to waive his NMC in anticipation that there is no way an expansion team picks that old of a dman making 9 million dollars. Forsberg may of gone through so many injuries we try the same with him thinking a new team wont pick someone with a big contract and big injury history.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

There will probably be so much roster turnover before the next expansion draft there really isnt any point in worrying. In 3-4 years, Josi will be 36-37 and i could see us asking him to waive his NMC in anticipation that there is no way an expansion team picks that old of a dman making 9 million dollars. Forsberg may of gone through so many injuries we try the same with him thinking a new team wont pick someone with a big contract and big injury history.

I wouldn't look at it so much as Josi/Forsberg... more that the Cap just goes so astronomical that we don't even care about paying Saros "fair market value".... which at that time will be $10Mish for an elite #1 goalie. None of it will really constrain us when the time comes, IMO. The only thing that will constrain us is that SOME DAY, expansion WILL happen and we'll lose a good player. But so will everybody else.

 

[wmupreds]

"Just a really really good goalie in the vein of a Saros or Rinne"? I am definitely on a very different wavelength wrt to Askarov. He is "fun to watch", but he's barely competent in the AHL. Albeit still very young, with time to grow. To me, there's a very good chance he never becomes an NHL starter at all, let alone a good one, let alone one of the best in the game like Saros or Rinne. If he's pushing to be a starter at all in 5 or 6 years, we won the lottery. I don't go around expecting to win many lotteries.

I realize there's no sure thing and he's got things to work on and all, but I think "barely competent" is pretty unfair.

 

[herzausstein]

Happy training camp day!

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Luke Evangelista is still eligible for the Calder. Would be very nice if he took it away from Berard! </jinx>

 

[herzausstein]

Luke Evangelista is still eligible for the Calder. Would be very nice if he took it away from Berard! </jinx>

Would have to significantly out produce him in order to get past the Bedard hype alone

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Would have to significantly out produce him in order to get past the Bedard hype alone

Dude... we have to keep saying "Berard"... c'mon...

 

[Olderfan]

Would have to significantly out produce him in order to get past the Bedard hype alone

Sure, there are voters out there who have already marked their ballot for Bedard and stuck it in a file.
On the other hand, Evangelista is just a player we Pred fans have heard much about because he’s a Pred prospect. We know he’s looked pretty good upon occasion but he’s got a lot to prove. He “looked good” in rookie camp but Preds lost them all and he didn’t do much. “Big Camp” will be important for him not only to “look good” but “be good”.
He’s been penciled into an NHL roster spot but pencils have erasers. He has to earn it in camp.

Berard! Sorry.

 

[triggrman]

Sure, there are voters out there who have already marked their ballot for Bedard and stuck it in a file.
On the other hand, Evangelista is just a player we Pred fans have heard much about because he’s a Pred prospect. We know he’s looked pretty good upon occasion but he’s got a lot to prove. He “looked good” in rookie camp but Preds lost them all and he didn’t do much. “Big Camp” will be important for him not only to “look good” but “be good”.
He’s been penciled into an NHL roster spot but pencils have erasers. He has to earn it in camp.

Berard! Sorry.

Showcases aren't about winning and losing

 

[PredsV82]

Luke Evangelista is still eligible for the Calder. Would be very nice if he took it away from Berard! </jinx>

Honestly if a Preds player is gonna win the Calder it would be Kemell. Luke is good but he isn't gonna pot 30+ and challenge Bedard.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

I'd honestly be surprised if Bedard isn't 75+ points this year. I don't see us competing with our rookies.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Honestly if a Preds player is gonna win the Calder it would be Kemell. Luke is good but he isn't gonna pot 30+ and challenge Bedard.

Evangelista was on pace for 24 goals and 27 assists last season in the NHL. I wouldn't say it is likely that Evangelista actually challenges Bedard but it's within the realm of possibility he makes another big jump forward. I'm hyped on Kemell too but he hasn't played an NHL game yet so it's too soon for me to be predicting him to win the Calder. We've seen it many times where a guy with a great shot struggles to get it going in the NHL when he has less time and space.

 

[Edgework]

I'd honestly be surprised if Bedard isn't 75+ points this year. I don't see us competing with our rookies.

Yeah but that’s where the opportunity lies. Everyone expects Bedard to be near 75. So if he isn’t—if he looks like a teenager who still needs seasoning instead—then it’s wide open.

 

[Scoresberg]

Meh, this reeks like the year Makar won the Norris over Josi. It was already decided in September that year that Makar would win and there was no turning away from that end result.