Official Coyotes 2019-2020 Roster Discussion Thread #3

[Jamieh]

Cap is going up to a minimum of $84 M based on what was discussed during last 31 Thoughts podcast. Escrow was a paltry 1.1%.

Redo the math with an extra $3 million then. Still need to shed a fair amount to add Hall.

 

[hbk]

Redo the math with an extra $3 million then. Still need to shed a fair amount to add Hall.

If there is one thing I’m certain of is Chayka knows how to make a trade.

 

[Jamieh]

If there is one thing I’m certain of is Chayka knows how to make a trade.

I agree but this started when someone said we have the Cap flexibility to add Hall and if you are strictly speaking of that the Coyote's don't really have flexibility without a fair amount of maneuvering . Of course it can be done, really any team can do it if they want.

 

[hbk]

Sounds like the range it’s going to fall into is $84.5-$86M. That’s $3-$4.5M additional room. Ribeiro comes off the books as well. That puts us at $5M-$6.5M. We r already paying Hall $2M pro-rated this year so that puts us at $7-$8.5M.

Raanta $4.25 M can be moved fairly easily. Stepan has a year at $6.5M in cap hit and he can be moved as well. And of course Soderberg’s $4.75M deal expires.

I’m fairly certain this can be navigated.

 

[WrinkledPossum]

Using present Cap for next season and assuming Coyote's full out rister with all $1 million players. We will be roughly $5 million over the Cap. Add Hall at $8 to be generous. That puts us $12 million over the Cap. I don't see how it's automatic that we get to Cap limit and be a better team? It's quite possible this is the best Coyote team for a few years again unless the kids grow quuckly. If I was Chayka and Hall signed I would have Kessel on the block instantly. No need for that money on the wings. Stepan would be my other shed.

Capfriendly is weird to look at right now with our IR and LTIR situation.

Next season, including Ness (we'll say he's replaced with someone with the same cap hit) we would have 17 players signed at about 74.5M. Hossa on LTIR for this. Two additions will be Hayton and Soderstrom. 895k and 925k each, so we're at 76.3M with 19 players on the roster. 17 skaters and 2 goalies.

That leaves us with at least 5M in cap space (Cap will go up) to add at minimum 1 skater, and max 4 players. Let's say we want to be dangerous and carry no extras, we could hypothetically move Raanta for a savings of about 3.5M if we go with Hill or Prosvetov. That gives you 8.5M + the increase in cap space to sign Hall. Last year the cap increase was considered very small but was still 2M, this year Friedman said it's projected to go to 84.5M, a 3M increase. So this scenario leaves us with 11.5M to give Hall if the cap goes up what is projected.

Now being more realistic,
Say Hall signs for 10M, then you have 1.5M left. Move Oesterle, 1.4M is a lot for 7th D. Up to 2.9M in space. 10 Forwards, 7D, 2 Goalies.
2.9M is enoug to fill out the roster. 1M to Fischer, 1M to a 4C, 900k for an extra.

Or if you want more room, then move Grabner, love him, but 3.35M is a lot for 4th line PKer. Then you have 5.25M for 4 forwards. 1M Fischer, 2M Vinnie, 2.25M for a 4C and an extra.

 

[Jamieh]

Capfriendly is weird to look at right now with our IR and LTIR situation.

Next season, including Ness (we'll say he's replaced with someone with the same cap hit) we would have 17 players signed at about 74.5M. Hossa on LTIR for this. Two additions will be Hayton and Soderstrom. 895k and 925k each, so we're at 76.3M with 19 players on the roster. 17 skaters and 2 goalies.

That leaves us with at least 5M in cap space (Cap will go up) to add at minimum 1 skater, and max 4 players. Let's say we want to be dangerous and carry no extras, we could hypothetically move Raanta for a savings of about 3.5M if we go with Hill or Prosvetov. That gives you 8.5M + the increase in cap space to sign Hall. Last year the cap increase was considered very small but was still 2M, this year Friedman said it's projected to go to 84.5M, a 3M increase. So this scenario leaves us with 11.5M to give Hall if the cap goes up what is projected.

Now being more realistic,
Say Hall signs for 10M, then you have 1.5M left. Move Oesterle, 1.4M is a lot for 7th D. Up to 2.9M in space. 10 Forwards, 7D, 2 Goalies.
2.9M is enoug to fill out the roster. 1M to Fischer, 1M to a 4C, 900k for an extra.

Or if you want more room, then move Grabner, love him, but 3.35M is a lot for 4th line PKer. Then you have 5.25M for 4 forwards. 1M Fischer, 2M Vinnie, 2.25M for a 4C and an extra.

I doubt Chayka plans his rister at 20 so I'll stick with 23 as most teams do. Roughly $75 million for 17 guys, roughly $77 million with the two rookies(No idea about bonuses)?? Leaves roughly $8 million with new Cap. So signing Hall as the 20th player puts us over Cap. That to me is not what i think of when someone says Cap flexibility. As I said from beginning, of course it's doable but imo it will involve a couple of salary sheds plus a couple of expiring contracts going away. Cap flexible teams imo are teams like Colorado , Florida, Montreal, etc

 

[rt]

Raanta is the obviously answer of those with contracts next season. It would be great to move Stepan but I doubt there would be a market.

 

[Jamieh]

Raanta is the obviously answer of those with contracts next season. It would be great to move Stepan but I doubt there would be a market.

I would choose to keep our goalie and D strength and move Kessel if I was choosing. Especially if Hall was signed. But I think you are right, 2 really good goalies is probably too much luxury??

 

[hbk]

Raanta is the obviously answer of those with contracts next season. It would be great to move Stepan but I doubt there would be a market.

Stepan’s cap hit is valuable to a team like Ottawa given they like the floor and Stepan’s cap hit is about $1.5M higher than his actual salary.

 

[Jamieh]

Stepan’s cap hit is valuable to a team like Ottawa given they like the floor and Stepan’s cap hit is about $1.5M higher than his actual salary.

I can't see Melnyk paying $5 million for that level of production. Might be an easier trade after bonus paid if it's a July bonus?? Might even be worth an asset

 

[hbk]

I can't see Melnyk paying $5 million for that level of production. Might be an easier trade after bonus paid if it's a July bonus?? Might even be worth an asset

It’s $3M signing bonus and $2M salary. For a cap floor team that is attractive.

 

[Jamieh]

It’s $3M signing bonus and $2M salary. For a cap floor team that is attractive.

Attractive after bonus is paid. Stepan isn't worth $5 now. And he doesn't fit what the Sens are trying to do, much like he doesn't fit Coyotes.

 

[YotesFan47]

We also have the expansion draft where we will lose someone which could range from $800k to $3.94m.

Edit: Stepan has no NMC/NTC so $800k to $6.5m.

Edit 2: Nevermind I'm a year off.

 

[XX]

Replace Soderberg with Hayton and Richardson with a cheaper 4C. That’s more than 4m saved right there. Soderstrom for Oesterle and move Raanta to recoup a pick. Done.

You aren't counting $10m between Kuemper and Keller.

It is not "extremely" easy to fit unless Soda walks and Stepan is dumped.

Hypothetical next year...

Hall - Dvorak - Schmaltz
Keller - Hayton - Garland
Crouse - Jenik - Kessel
Grabner - Pederson - Fischer

OEL - Demers
Chych - Hjalmarsson
Goligoski - Soderstrom
Oesterle

Kuemper
Raanta

Out: Vinny, Stepan, Soderberg, Richardson
In: Hall, Hayton, Jenik, Pederson

If you sign Hall at 9, it fits with a little over a million to spare. Goose drops off to pay for Garland eventually. Kessel drops off before it comes time to pay for ELC players.

It's way too restrictive IMO for Chayka, I don't see how Kessel and Raanta stay if this ever happens. Basically eliminates all flexibility and forces you to play young players to replace Stepan (yay) and Soda (huge gamble). You can move Schmaltz to center and jumble the lines up I suppose.​

That was on $83m if I remember correctly. 84+ would be nice but I wouldn't count on it.

 

[rt]

Raanta. Raanta. Raanta.

 

[rt]

It’s $3M signing bonus and $2M salary. For a cap floor team that is attractive.

Didn’t realize this salary structure! Great news! Get this guy the f*** outta here!!!

 

[Fuhrious]

I would choose to keep our goalie and D strength and move Kessel if I was choosing. Especially if Hall was signed. But I think you are right, 2 really good goalies is probably too much luxury??

Realistically, with the expansion draft looming, we're probably going to deal one of our goalies. Just a matter of time, and honestly they likely lose value the closer the draft gets.

 

[Jamieh]

Realistically, with the expansion draft looming, we're probably going to deal one of our goalies. Just a matter of time, and honestly they likely lose value the closer the draft gets.

Isn't Raanta a free agent by that time?

 

[lanky]

I'm surprised you peeps are willing to move Stepan so shortly after an era of weakness up the middle. He's not earning his pay but he helps us on the ice more than his replacement would.

Dvorak
Hayton
Stepan
Soderberg

is a mighty fine group.

Jenik will help to replace one of those older guys but not in 2020. Give Jenik a taste of Tuscon.

Trade Raanta to Jersey for the 31st OA pick.

 

[YotesFan47]

Didn’t realize this salary structure! Great news! Get this guy the **** outta here!!!

What do you ideally move Stepan for? I don't see a deal without some useless salary coming back and maybe a pick or meh prospect. I know I've mentioned moving him before but the more I work it out, the less sense it makes to move him. The only rational move/reason I can come up with is at the draft for a 3rd and meh prospect so we can resign Hall but that leaves a hole we need to be fairly certain Hayton can fill.

20/21 Season
Garland - Dvorak - Kessel
Hall - Schmaltz - Crouse
Keller - Hayton - Hinostroza
Grabner - 4c - Fisher

IF we resign Hall then we are likely down 3 centers we've had relative success with. We'd probably need to flip Grabner for a C/RW and get a solid vet 4c for stability purposes which will fall in the $1.5m to $3m range. If Jenik makes the roster I see a similar situation to Hayton this year for him and we probably still want a natural RW upgrade.

It almost feels more productive to not resign Hall, keep Stepan, drop Grabner, and try to add two 2nd line wingers at a similar cost.

 

[XX]

Raanta. Raanta. Raanta.

.... represents a competitive edge so dropping him is not ideal or a priority, if the Hall trade wasn't clear enough.

 

[rt]

If Hall puts up .9ppg as a Yote he’s much more valuable than the worlds best backup. We have elite goaltending with Raanta. We have elite goaltending without Raanta. We don’t have elite scoring without Hall. With him? We shall see. If it proves so, he’s tremendously more valuable than Raanta and by a lot.

 

[rt]

Stepan can GTFO.

 

[XX]

If Hall puts up .9ppg as a Yote he’s much more valuable than the worlds best backup. We have elite goaltending with Raanta. We have elite goaltending without Raanta. We don’t have elite scoring without Hall. With him? We shall see. If it proves so, he’s tremendously more valuable than Raanta and by a lot.

Hall will only put up about 30 points more than replacement while taking up at least $9m of cap for the next seven or eight years. It's really not as simple as Hall > Raanta. The 1-2 punch of needing to account for Kuemper & Keller's raises plus an additional $9m+ is going to put the team in a bind.

This whole conversation is frankly absurd when you consider Kessel has been worse than Stepan. At least Stepan can play tough minutes in a position of need. Phil needs to get his shit together, because he's a $6.8m black hole right now.

 

[Fuhrious]

Isn't Raanta a free agent by that time?

His current contract runs through the season before the expansion draft, iirc? Even so, he's an obvious asset and would presumably have value to the team beyond simply letting him walk as a UFA or losing him to Seattle.