Official 2015 Tank Thread Part X And Tanking GDT

[sjci]

15 games till the finish line

Official 2015 Tank Thread VI
Official 2015 Tank Thread Part VII
Official 2015 Tank Thread Part VIII And Tanking GDT
Official 2015 Tank Thread Part IX And Tanking GDT

[FIELDSET="McEichel Race"]

Rank|Team|GP|W|L|OT|PTS|ROW|P%|SORS|GR/H/A
#30|

| 67| 19| 42| 6| 44| 12| .328| .542| 15/8/7
#29|

|67| 18| 38| 11| 47| 13| .351| .550| 15/9/6
#28|

|67| 21| 38| 8| 50| 16| .373| .560| 15/8/7

[/FIELDSET]

SORS = strength of remaining schedule (avg opponents P% for the rest of the season)
GR/H/A = games remaining/home/away

-----------------------------

Season Outlook​

As of right now, we sit at 44 points with 12 Regulation/OT wins in 67 games.
Last season we had 46 points with 13 ROW in 67 games:

Last Season Standings at this point
30. Buffalo 67 GP - 46pts - 13 ROW
29. Edmonton 68 GP - 55pts - 20 ROW
28. Florida 67 GP - 57pts - 18 ROW
---------------------
Current Rest Of Season Situation
8 Home Games
7 Away Games
9 Games versus the East; 6 versus the West

Sabres Season

With the Sabres final 15 games, 8 are home and 7 are away.

The Sabres home win % is .364 and they get points out of 45.5% of those games.
Their away Win % is .206, and they get points out of 29.4% of those games.

They have 9 Games Against the East (6H/3A) and 6 against the West (2H/4A)
Win % against the East = .289 with a Point % = .400
Win % against the West = .273 with a Point % = .318

So with that, basing their win and point percentage off of their remaining games and record versus the east & west, they could finish 5-9-1, for 55 points for an 90% chance of finishing 30th, and an 10% chance of finishing 29th

Using their Home and Away Win and Point percentage, they could finish 4-10-1 for 53 points for a 97% chance of finishing 30th, and a 3% chance of finishing 29th

-----------

Draft Order Probability
Finishing 30th this season will most likely mean a team around at most 58 points. For Buffalo, that would mean no better than 6 wins in their final 15 games

“Successful Tank†Finish
In order to finish 30th in the league, and guarantee the Sabres a top 2 pick, the Sabres most likely need to finish with less than 58 points. Preferably, the Sabres should finish more around 54 points or less to increase the chance.

57 Points would be a record of around 5-7-3 / 6-8-1 (Win 1 every 3 games)
55 points would be a record of around 4-8-3 / 5-9-1 (Win 1 every 4 games)
52 points (99% 30th finish) = record around 3-10-2 / 2-9-4 (Win 1 every 5 games)

Probability % of finishing 30th – 29th – 28th
51 points = 99 - 01 - 0
52 points = 99 - 01 - 0
53 points = 98 - 02 - 0
54 points = 95 - 05 - 0
55 points = 92 - 08 - 0
56 Points = 84 – 16 – 0
57 Points = 76 – 23 – 1

“Need some lotto luck†Finish
If the Sabres were to finish the season with between 6-8 wins, a point total of 58+, they would most likely be finishing in 29th place.

Probability % of finishing 30th – 29th – 28th
58 Points = 62 – 35 – 4
59 Points = 50 – 43 – 7
60 Points = 33 – 51 - 16


------------------

Current Predicted Standings

Right now, the predicted final standings and draft order (barring lottery results) would be:
as of 3/12/2015 @ 7:00 PM EST
Buffalo (29.8)
Edmonton (28.9)
Arizona (28.3)
(The number in brackets is the average finish after running a lot of simulations)

Meaning the Sabres would have a 20% shot at winning the lottery, but a guaranteed top 2 pick.

------------------------
In easy to understand terms:

Sabres at 56 or less points(5 wins or less): ~84% or Better chance of finishing 30th (Guaranteed Top 2 Pick)
Sabres at 58+ points(6+ wins): Toss up between finishing 29th or 30th (Picking either 1st, 2nd or 3rd)

Click to read more...

 

[sjci]

Annnnd just like that, EDM gives up a short handed goal... ugh

 

[Rhett4]

Annnnd just like that, EDM gives up a short handed goal... ugh

This is one of their least winnable games. I wouldn't agonize over it too much.

 

[sjci]

This is one of their least winnable games. I wouldn't agonize over it too much.

yupp, 3-0 now. Hopefully they show up for tomorrow against Columbus

 

[EichHart]

This will be the 9th year without playoffs for the Oilers with no end to this streak in sight. I wonder what things would be like if the Sabres had this happen to them. The media would be ALL over everyone constantly to change things up. The Oilers continue on status quo trading 2 of their top players away and tanking right along.

 

[Montag DP]

Yeah, they scare me. I don't care how much better they are on paper. They're pros at this and only have 14 games left after tonight. They could just throw in the towel as far as trying to win is concerned.

 

[Husko]

The Oilers have a 84% chance of picking up 10 points? That seems optimistic

 

[Slicknitty]

Yeah, they scare me. I don't care how much better they are on paper. They're pros at this and only have 14 games left after tonight. They could just throw in the towel as far as trying to win is concerned.

It's frustrating for you guys to watch but what about us? Tanking aside...I don't get where some people think this is a better team. I don't get them.

 

[sjci]

The Oilers have a 84% chance of picking up 10 points? That seems optimistic

9 of their last 13 games are at home, so not out of the realm of possibility, but yeah, that number is probably high. I have a feeling that percentage will drop considerably, especially if Edmonton can't get a point tonight and tomorrow.

 

[Husko]

Neither the Sabres nor the Oilers breaking 50 points would be a special kind of something

 

[Afino]

you're a special kind of worthless, Edmonton.

 

[EichHart]

It's frustrating for you guys to watch but what about us? Tanking aside...I don't get where some people think this is a better team. I don't get them.

Yeah you guys are obviously sick of this judging from a few posts.

A seasoned poster of 55k+ posts.

ladies

"march 18th is my 44th birthday-- I am doing the GDT that day--the title will be "The Rant"--It will be the biggest rant HF has every seen--not only will I be ripping a part the team--I will be ripping the fan based--untill then--I wont be posting"\

And another...

“The worst of this is in the rear view mirror. In my tenure here as manager I have not seen the team compete and play for each other at the level that I’m seeing right now. There’s a lot of fight in this group.â€

This was Craig MacTavish at the trade deadline. Team hasn't won a game since lol.

After tonight will have lost 9 of the last 10 games played.

****ing clown.

 

[Paxon]

It's frustrating for you guys to watch but what about us? Tanking aside...I don't get where some people think this is a better team. I don't get them.

Innate forward talent. People assume that makes your team inherently better on top of the better stretch of play post-coach change. People are overstating how much better the Oilers are at least to the extent that it matters, because if they're still too bad to win games then it damn well means dick. I will say that the Oilers are better, though, by pretty much any metric. Buffalo scores less, allows more, has a worse PP and has a worse PK. Edmonton gives up 2 more shots than they take while Buffalo gives up 12 more shots than they take. It just can't be argued imo, this team is worse. The problem, as I indicated, is that both teams are so bad that they don't have much of a chance most nights, so it doesn't really become reflected in the standings.

 

[Kublakhan]

you're a special kind of worthless, Edmonton.

this..

 

[Kublakhan]

It's frustrating for you guys to watch but what about us? Tanking aside...I don't get where some people think this is a better team. I don't get them.

you had your bite at the apple, time for you guys to step off

 

[sjci]

Is OT too much to hope for?

 

[Moskau]

Scrivens is useless like I said. Is Fasth supposed to be back anytime this season?

 

[oilers83]

Scrivens is useless like I said. Is Fasth supposed to be back anytime this season?

Scrivens 2.92 GAA and .898 sv%
Fasth 3.41 and .888

 

[Montag DP]

Is OT too much to hope for?

They've given away so many games in the third period that they owe it to us. That said, yes, it probably is too much to hope for.

 

[tsujimoto74]

It's frustrating for you guys to watch but what about us? Tanking aside...I don't get where some people think this is a better team. I don't get them.

I find that hard to believe. You don't understand why people think a team that has 3 recent 1st overall picks and Eberle is better/more talented than the Sabres, a team whose roster forwards at this point are literally half comprised of guys who spent most of the year in the AHL? You don't get how people think a team that's performed better in every measurable statistic (GF, GA, SF, SA, PP%, PK%) is better than the team that's 30th in every single one of those categories? The difference in the standings may not be vast, but there's no doubt that the Sabres are worse.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

4-3. Get it to OT!!!

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

what is this insanity, 4-3 pit

 

[Moskau]

Scrivens 2.92 GAA and .898 sv%
Fasth 3.41 and .888

Fasth looked much better than Scrivens after the coaching change before he got injured.

 

[Moskau]

Why is Crosby killing penalties? Zetterberg and Datsyuk both said that one of the better things to happen to them in recent years is having their PK time reduced. I think having your best players kill penalties is idiotic. If your PK has to have Crosby on it to succeed then you're a poorly built team.

 

[Husko]

Why is Crosby killing penalties? Zetterberg and Datsyuk both said that one of the better things to happen to them in recent years is having their PK time reduced. I think having your best players kill penalties is idiotic. If your PK has to have Crosby on it to succeed then you're a poorly built team.

Do you not remember this boards endless *****ing when Lindy didn't have Vanek PKing?