Official 2015 Tank Thread Part IX And Tanking GDT

[Cirris]

One of Edmonton/Arizona HAVE to win tonight, right? It seems like its been too long besides AZ's SO win.

Edmonton for sure. We keep inching closer to them. It's getting uncomfortable.

 

[Reddawg]

Edmonton for sure. We keep inching closer to them. It's getting uncomfortable.

Oh, no suh...it's been uncomfortable for quite some time now.

 

[Cirris]

Schoppe said something interesting today…. if you are in 1st place, you don't really play any important games in season…. but if you are tanking, every game is important

That's cause 16 teams make the playoffs. there's only 2 McEichels.

In Baseball when only pennant winners played in the world series would be a more apt comparison. Every game becomes a lot more important when dropping to 2nd means going home early.

Schoppe is just lame in his attempts to be thought provoking.

 

[Gabrielor]

With Toronto out of the way, the next 6 are 'take care of business' games.

NYR WSH @BOS NJD @NSH @DAL

We 'shouldn't' have a chance in any except for maybe Jersey, and they've played us well this year.

An 0-6-0 run with 1-2 wins apiece for Ariz-monton would do wonders for the nerves.

Then it's the sprint:

ARI @COL @ARI TOR CHI @NYI CAR @CBJ PIT

A lot of important games in that set. Hopefully we don't see another team ghost-walk through a game like Toronto did last night.

This is gonna be tight...

 

[Jim Bob]

Oh, no suh...it's been uncomfortable for quite some time now.

Really?

The gap to 29th today is 3 pts.

On 3/1 it was 3 pts.

On 2/1 it was 4 pts.

On 1/1 the Sabres were in 28th and 7 pts ahead of Carolina and Edmonton who were tied for 29/30.

Things are a lot more comfortable than they were on New Years Day.

A year ago, the Sabres gap to 29th was 6 pts. And the Sabres ended up 15 pts clear of the Oilers and 14 pts clear of the Panthers who ended up in 29th.

 

[Reddawg]

I consider 5 weeks worth of a two game gap to be pretty uncomfortable...although to be fair, it makes me feel better about the next five weeks knowing those four points have gotten us this far.

Lighten up a little, it was mostly a joke. Like, at least 85.82% joke.

 

[Gabrielor]

Really?

The gap to 29th today is 3 pts.

On 3/1 it was 3 pts.

On 2/1 it was 4 pts.

On 1/1 the Sabres were in 28th and 7 pts ahead of Carolina and Edmonton who were tied for 29/30.

Things are a lot more comfortable than they were on New Years Day.

A year ago, the Sabres gap to 29th was 6 pts. And the Sabres ended up 15 pts clear of the Oilers and 14 pts clear of the Panthers who ended up in 29th.

Our net tandem of Knapp/Lieuwen/Hackett/Makarov gave us a solid 1-9-2 finish in the last 12. Don't know if we can bank on that this time. Especially with Toronto again, and Arizona twice.

 

[Jim Bob]

Our net tandem of Knapp/Lieuwen/Hackett/Makarov gave us a solid 1-9-2 finish in the last 12. Don't know if we can bank on that this time. Especially with Toronto again, and Arizona twice.

One big factor is the unknown of injuries.

If Johnson stays down and Lindback gets hurt, it's that same group of guys that get thrown in net...

 

[Gabrielor]

As nerving as it is with 15 remaining, I guess one positive is that Toronto totally played down to us, and still won. Toronto's bad, and didn't really try, and still won...

 

[Dubi Doo]

Edmonton for sure. We keep inching closer to them. It's getting uncomfortable.

They sure have mastered the art of tanking. Throughout the season I always believed they'd start to pull away. Nope! It's going to come down to the wire.

 

[EichHart]

As nerving as it is with 15 remaining, I guess one positive is that Toronto totally played down to us, and still won. Toronto's bad, and didn't really try, and still won...

Could not believe they won that game. I watched nearly the entire game and the Leafs were not even skating, just completely floating around the ice. To escape that game with 1 pt is a victory.

 

[Husko]

Well they're out of time to pull away

There's 9 games left in March. Either they're going to "pull away" in those 9 games (where they have 6 home games, lets go...) or they're not and it's going to go down to the wire in April. Not really any room left for pulling away at that point

 

[Husko]

Well they're out of time to pull away

There's 9 games left in March. Either they're going to "pull away" in those 9 games (where they have 6 home games, lets go...) or they're not and it's going to go down to the wire in April. Not really any room left for pulling away at that point

Also, to that note, look at the oilers schedule in April, it's enough to give someone an aneurism

 

[McCauleyChirps]

Y'all need to chill. We're going to lose our next 3. NYR, WSH, and BOS.

 

[Zip15]

Oilers have to make hay on that six-game homestand. They have to go no worse than .500 on it, and I'm hoping for better:

vs TOR
vs CBJ
vs PHI
vs WPG
vs COL
vs DAL

 

[Paxon]

Y'all need to chill. We're going to lose our next 3. NYR, WSH, and BOS.

So will the Oilers and Coyotes in all likelihood

 

[McCauleyChirps]

So will the Oilers and Coyotes in all likelihood

Arizona has a legit chance at a win against the Devils at home. Edmonton can win in Columbus, and Toronto at home.

 

[Zip15]

I do wish the first of the B2B for Edmonton was at CBJ and not PIT. The Columbus game is far more winnable. Call up Forsberg!

 

[BornBuffaloFan]

That's cause 16 teams make the playoffs. there's only 2 McEichels.

In Baseball when only pennant winners played in the world series would be a more apt comparison. Every game becomes a lot more important when dropping to 2nd means going home early.

Schoppe is just lame in his attempts to be thought provoking.

hmmmmm.. not interesting

 

[EichHart]

Y'all need to chill. We're going to lose our next 3. NYR, WSH, and BOS.

The first two for sure, but we always play Boston quite hard. But since they are fighting for a playoff spot we may have no chance.

 

[Dubi Doo]

Arizona has a legit chance at a win against the Devils at home. Edmonton can win in Columbus, and Toronto at home.

Isn't Edmonton s record worse at home than on the road? Sounds like they play more tentative at home.

 

[EichHart]

These next two weeks are going to be pivotal to this tank. We face very tough opponents while Arizona and Edmonton have homestands against so-so teams. I think we find out who finishes last by the end of this month.

 

[Zip15]

Someone can do this in a nice table, but here is the meat and potatoes:

Arizona

Home: 8/15
Away: 7/15
Back-to-back: 2
Three-in-four-nights: 1 (plus a four-in-six that incorporates the 3-in-4)


Edmonton

Home: 9/15
Away: 6/15
Back-to-back: 2
Three-in-four-nights: 1


Buffalo

Home: 8/15
Away: 7/15
Back-to-back: 4
Three-in-four-nights: 3

Wow, the schedulers did us some favors by giving us four back-to-backs down the stretch. Even better, on three of those occasions the second game is on the road. Both of Arizona's seconds of a back-to-back are at home, while both of Edmonton's are on the road.

We also have the most three-in-four situations with three, and on all three occasions the third game is a roadie. I think these situations serve to mitigate whatever opponent "disadvantages" we may have by playing easier opponents (all of whom, of course, are better than us--save Toronto, maybe).

 

[Husko]

Point percentages home/away for each team:

Arizona
Home: 37.88%
Away: 32.35%

Edmonton
Home: 34.38%
Away: 35.71%

Buffalo
Home: 40.90%
Away: 25.00%


Final Projections based on this:
Arizona
Home: 6 points
Away: 4.5 points
Total: 10-11 points

Edmonton
Home: 6 points
Away: 4 points
Total: 10 points

Buffalo
Home: 6.5 points
Away: 3.5 points
Total: 10 points


FOR A GRAND TOTAL OF:
28. Arizona - 60 points
29. Edmonton - 57 points
30. Buffalo - 54 points


If someone that's better with stats than me wanted to do a statistical regression based on opponent point% that'd be awesome

 

[Husko]

Point percentages home/away for each team:

Arizona
Home: 37.88%
Away: 32.35%

Edmonton
Home: 34.38%
Away: 35.71%

Buffalo
Home: 40.90%
Away: 25.00%


Final Projections based on this:
Arizona
Home: 6 points
Away: 4.5 points
Total: 10-11 points

Edmonton
Home: 6 points
Away: 4 points
Total: 10 points

Buffalo
Home: 6.5 points
Away: 3.5 points
Total: 10 points


FOR A GRAND TOTAL OF:
28. Arizona - 60 points
29. Edmonton - 57 points
30. Buffalo - 54 points


If someone that's better with stats than me wanted to do a statistical regression based on opponent point% that'd be awesome

Sabres in game 2 of back-to backs:

3-9-1

All 3 wins came in the shootout.

I hate the shootout


So that point % is 26.92%. Meaning in our 4 games on the second of back-to-backs, we can expect about 2 points