I don't know why people are saying Eichel will play wing when we all know he will play 6 minutes a night as the 4th line center with Kaleta and McCormick.
Official 2015 tank thread IV
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Push Dr Tracksuit
Gerstmann 3:16
- Jun 9, 2012
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Bringing this back from last year
Sorry for the tl;dr, numbers are fun!
Updated on Jan 18th @ 3 AM (EST)
Next Update: Jan 30th
----
As of right now, we sit at 31 points with 8 Regulation/OT wins in 46 games.
Last season we had 32 points with 7 ROW in 46 games:
Last Season Standings at this point
30. Buffalo 46 GP - 32pts - 7 ROW
29. Edmonton 50 GP - 35pts - 13 ROW
28. Calgary 48 GP - 38pts - 13 ROW
---------------------
Current Rest Of Season Situation
16 Home Games
20 Away Games
23 Games versus the East; 13 versus the West
Sabres Season
With the Sabres final 36 games, 16 are home and 20 are away.
The Sabres win percentage at home is .4 and they get points out of 50% of those games. (Last year at this time it was .346/.5)
Their away Win % is .190, and they get points out of 23.8% of those games (last year it was .19/.33)
They have 23 Games Against the East (10H/13A) and 13 against the West (6H/7A)
Win % against the East = .323 with a Point % = .419 (LY = .290/.484)
Win % against the West = .267 with a Point % = .267 (LY = .250/.313)
So with that, basing their win and point percentage off of their remaining games and record versus the east & west, they could finish 10-22-4, for 55 points for an 90% chance of finishing 30th, and an 10% chance of finishing 29th
Using their Home and Away Win and Point percentage, they could finish 11-22-3 for 56 points for a 86% chance of finishing 30th, and a 14% chance of finishing 29th
**Crazy stat: We have near identical numbers to what we had last year! Our home/away % are very close, same with our East & West record %. The difference this year is that we have multiple teams now competing for that final spot. Last year it was pretty close around this time, with EDM only up 3pts on us with 4 games in hand, however there was a key game last year against EDM that helped the separation. With BUF at 38pts, and EDM at 42, an EDM win over BUF helped further distance them from us and by the Olympic break (game area 57-60), there was significant separation (9pts!) from 30th to 29th.
-----------
Draft Order Probability
Finishing 30th this season will most likely mean a team around at most 60 points. For Buffalo, that would mean no better than 11 wins in their final 36 games
“Successful Tank†Finish
In order to finish 30th in the league, and guarantee the Sabres a top 2 pick, the Sabres most likely need to finish with less than 60 points. Preferably, the Sabres should finish more around 55 points or less to increase the chance.
60 Points would be a record of around 11-18-7 / 13-20-3 (Win 1 every 3 games)
55 points would be a record of around 9-21-6 / 10-22-4 (Win 1 every 4 games)
48 points (100% 30th finish) = record around 6-25-5 / 7-26-4 (Win 1 every 5 games)
Of Note: SCS currently pegs the Sabres to finish 9-20-7 (56 points), an 87% chance for 30th.
Probability % of finishing 30th – 29th – 28th
53 points = 96 - 04 - 0
54 points = 94 - 06 - 0
55 points = 90 - 10 - 0
56 points = 86 - 14 - 0
57 points = 82 - 18 - 0
58 Points = 76 – 24 – 1
59 Points = 68 – 30 – 1
60 Points = 59 – 38 – 3
61 Points = 51 – 44 – 5
“Need some lotto luck†Finish
If the Sabres were to finish the season with between 12-14 wins, a point total between 62-65, they would most likely be finishing in 29th place.
Probability % of finishing 30th – 29th – 28th
62 Points = 42 – 50 – 8
63 Points = 32 – 54 - 13
64 Points = 24 – 55 – 19
65 Points = 17 – 54 – 25
------------------
Current Predicted Standings
Right now, the predicted final standings and draft order (barring lottery results) would be:
as of 1/18/2015 @ 3:00 AM EST
Buffalo (29.7)
Edmonton (28.9)
Arizona (27.6)
Carolina (26.7)
(The number in brackets is the average finish after running a lot of simulations)
Meaning the Sabres would have a 20% shot at winning the lottery, but a guaranteed top 2 pick.
------------------------
In easy to understand terms:
Sabres at 60 or less points(11 wins or less): 60% or Better chance of finishing 30th (Guaranteed Top 2 Pick)
Sabres at 62-65 points(Between 12 ~ 14 wins): Toss up between finishing 29th or 30th (Picking either 1st, 2nd or 3rd)
-------------------------
Key Note
At the end of this month, the Sabres will be at 50 games played. At 50 games last season, the Sabres were in 30th with 35 points. Edmonton was in 29th with 36 pts, but in 53 GP. Next closest team was CGY at 43 pts in 52 GP. So the clear difference this year is that there are more teams fighting for the bottom and we are in a familiar spot with Edmonton as we were last year. The key with last year however, was that Edmonton had a nice hot streak leading up to the Olympic break, going 5-1-1 in their next 7 games. Probably too much to hope for this year, but as you can see by the other numbers, we are in a very similar position as to last year.
The next update at the end of January, will hopefully give us a better picture.
Sorry for the tl;dr, numbers are fun!
Updated on Jan 18th @ 3 AM (EST)
Next Update: Jan 30th
----
Season Outlook
As of right now, we sit at 31 points with 8 Regulation/OT wins in 46 games.
Last season we had 32 points with 7 ROW in 46 games:
Last Season Standings at this point
30. Buffalo 46 GP - 32pts - 7 ROW
29. Edmonton 50 GP - 35pts - 13 ROW
28. Calgary 48 GP - 38pts - 13 ROW
---------------------
Current Rest Of Season Situation
16 Home Games
20 Away Games
23 Games versus the East; 13 versus the West
Sabres Season
With the Sabres final 36 games, 16 are home and 20 are away.
The Sabres win percentage at home is .4 and they get points out of 50% of those games. (Last year at this time it was .346/.5)
Their away Win % is .190, and they get points out of 23.8% of those games (last year it was .19/.33)
They have 23 Games Against the East (10H/13A) and 13 against the West (6H/7A)
Win % against the East = .323 with a Point % = .419 (LY = .290/.484)
Win % against the West = .267 with a Point % = .267 (LY = .250/.313)
So with that, basing their win and point percentage off of their remaining games and record versus the east & west, they could finish 10-22-4, for 55 points for an 90% chance of finishing 30th, and an 10% chance of finishing 29th
Using their Home and Away Win and Point percentage, they could finish 11-22-3 for 56 points for a 86% chance of finishing 30th, and a 14% chance of finishing 29th
**Crazy stat: We have near identical numbers to what we had last year! Our home/away % are very close, same with our East & West record %. The difference this year is that we have multiple teams now competing for that final spot. Last year it was pretty close around this time, with EDM only up 3pts on us with 4 games in hand, however there was a key game last year against EDM that helped the separation. With BUF at 38pts, and EDM at 42, an EDM win over BUF helped further distance them from us and by the Olympic break (game area 57-60), there was significant separation (9pts!) from 30th to 29th.
-----------
Draft Order Probability
Finishing 30th this season will most likely mean a team around at most 60 points. For Buffalo, that would mean no better than 11 wins in their final 36 games
“Successful Tank†Finish
In order to finish 30th in the league, and guarantee the Sabres a top 2 pick, the Sabres most likely need to finish with less than 60 points. Preferably, the Sabres should finish more around 55 points or less to increase the chance.
60 Points would be a record of around 11-18-7 / 13-20-3 (Win 1 every 3 games)
55 points would be a record of around 9-21-6 / 10-22-4 (Win 1 every 4 games)
48 points (100% 30th finish) = record around 6-25-5 / 7-26-4 (Win 1 every 5 games)
Of Note: SCS currently pegs the Sabres to finish 9-20-7 (56 points), an 87% chance for 30th.
Probability % of finishing 30th – 29th – 28th
53 points = 96 - 04 - 0
54 points = 94 - 06 - 0
55 points = 90 - 10 - 0
56 points = 86 - 14 - 0
57 points = 82 - 18 - 0
58 Points = 76 – 24 – 1
59 Points = 68 – 30 – 1
60 Points = 59 – 38 – 3
61 Points = 51 – 44 – 5
“Need some lotto luck†Finish
If the Sabres were to finish the season with between 12-14 wins, a point total between 62-65, they would most likely be finishing in 29th place.
Probability % of finishing 30th – 29th – 28th
62 Points = 42 – 50 – 8
63 Points = 32 – 54 - 13
64 Points = 24 – 55 – 19
65 Points = 17 – 54 – 25
------------------
Current Predicted Standings
Right now, the predicted final standings and draft order (barring lottery results) would be:
as of 1/18/2015 @ 3:00 AM EST
Buffalo (29.7)
Edmonton (28.9)
Arizona (27.6)
Carolina (26.7)
(The number in brackets is the average finish after running a lot of simulations)
Meaning the Sabres would have a 20% shot at winning the lottery, but a guaranteed top 2 pick.
------------------------
In easy to understand terms:
Sabres at 60 or less points(11 wins or less): 60% or Better chance of finishing 30th (Guaranteed Top 2 Pick)
Sabres at 62-65 points(Between 12 ~ 14 wins): Toss up between finishing 29th or 30th (Picking either 1st, 2nd or 3rd)
-------------------------
Key Note
At the end of this month, the Sabres will be at 50 games played. At 50 games last season, the Sabres were in 30th with 35 points. Edmonton was in 29th with 36 pts, but in 53 GP. Next closest team was CGY at 43 pts in 52 GP. So the clear difference this year is that there are more teams fighting for the bottom and we are in a familiar spot with Edmonton as we were last year. The key with last year however, was that Edmonton had a nice hot streak leading up to the Olympic break, going 5-1-1 in their next 7 games. Probably too much to hope for this year, but as you can see by the other numbers, we are in a very similar position as to last year.
The next update at the end of January, will hopefully give us a better picture.
sba
....
I'm happier about this than I should be...but man I hope they keep this up. Start selling assets ASAP
The thing is...they can't win less than they do right now. Maybe when things switch around...but man... Edmonton got 10 points the last 10. Carolina got 11. Even Arizona who I'm pretty sure are trying to lose for reals...got 8. We got 0. I can't trade anyone to get less than zero.
We don't have a home game again until February...when we return to get killed by the blues. We can let things breathe a minute I think.
I will let things breathe for a little after we lose to the Oilers in regulation, until that time or if God forbid we win that game...
Oh god, the laughs keep coming
http://www.buffalonews.com/sports/sabres-nhl/a-taint-on-the-sport-any-way-you-cut-it-20150118
Yawn. The only thing the Sabres may have done in my mind that is "pro tank" is keeping Nolan on as coach well beyond the point that he's shown he and his chosen staff are unable to implement a NHL level system.
The biggest taint in First Niagara Center is in the press room. I nearly guarantee it.
http://www.buffalonews.com/sports/sabres-nhl/a-taint-on-the-sport-any-way-you-cut-it-20150118
Yawn. The only thing the Sabres may have done in my mind that is "pro tank" is keeping Nolan on as coach well beyond the point that he's shown he and his chosen staff are unable to implement a NHL level system.
The biggest taint in First Niagara Center is in the press room. I nearly guarantee it.
Harrington is just doing another troll job. The best way for the team to get better is to wait on their top-notch prospect pool to develop. Find out which ones are keepers and then make trades to fill in the holes. There are no trades that can make the team better right now and placate his fake displeasure without taking away from that prospect pool. Nobody can speed up time and make all the kids NHL ready and he probably knows and understands this. He just wants to flail at his keyboard and try in vain to stay relevant. Every click helps to keep him employed so...
Sabre Dance
Make Hockey Fun Again
- Jul 27, 2006
- 12,456
- 2,243
Ethan Edwards
Registered User
Agreed. I'm not a big "tank" guy, but yeah, all of this recent disparaging of the Sabres, both in town and out of town, has gotten ridiculous. Aside from stuff they could do today to improve (very little, described above), there was a conscious decision made to rebuild through the draft. Well that comes with consequences. We're seeing a team with lesser tier NHLers playing alongside kids who, while very talented and developing beautifully, are still young with plenty of room to grow. That translates into losses. It's a tried and true method, and hardly immoral. And the calls of outrage didn't seem as loud in years past, at least to me, though I could be hypersensitive these days.
But bottom line: it's only a "taint" on the sport (what an idiotic comment) if the players on the ice are intentionally throwing it away. I don't think anybody would argue that's happening. With the national anti-Buffalo remarks I keep hearing, it would be nice if a hometown reporter could at least take a stand and stick up for the team.
NotABadPeriod
ForFriendshipDikembe
- Oct 28, 2006
- 52,064
- 8,745
Eichel might end up playing wing next year, much like how Seguin broke into the league.
Eichel will be playing center before long though.
Eichel will be playing center before long though.
What was Harrington's stance over the summer when we signed Moulson and Gionta? What about when Samson started the season with Risto? What was he writing during the 10 game win streak when we came closer to the wild card than last place?
MayDay
Registered User
You guys all need to take an "ignore the trolls" policy when it comes to Harrington and Bucky.
Just don't waste your breath and energy being outraged by their nonsense.
Seems to be the policy that Pegula himself has taken re: TBN, and I think it's the right one.
Just don't waste your breath and energy being outraged by their nonsense.
Seems to be the policy that Pegula himself has taken re: TBN, and I think it's the right one.
Does Harrington not understand that every year in sports there is going to be a team or two that are on another level of suckage? He acts like we are the only team in the history of the league to do this. We are going to end up between 50-60 points, it's not like we are going to end the year with 35 points. The only one who is a disgrace is him.
NEcoli
Registered User
- Apr 13, 2014
- 1,120
- 262
The Buffalo News sports dpt is shockingly bad. Gleason, Harrington, and Sullivan are just 3 old men yelling at clouds.
Sabre Dance
Make Hockey Fun Again
- Jul 27, 2006
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NEcoli
Registered User
- Apr 13, 2014
- 1,120
- 262
Yeah the beat reporters are fine. Unfortunately they're overshadowed by the "personalities."
C Note
Registered User
- Jan 31, 2014
- 194
- 0
So... Jack Eichel, who currently leads the NCAA in assists, is a selfish hockey player who will play wing? And we don't want to build like the Hawks, who have won 2 cups in the past 4 years, and who currently have the highest goal differential in the NHL?
This is what it's come to, folks.
Russo's Sunday #NHL Insider: Some fans are clamoring, but it's too late for the #mnwild to tank for McEichel http://t.co/xtKEnxCmYS
BloFan4Life
Registered User
How Buffalo would it be for them to be the worst team in the league 2 years in a row and not get the 1st overall pick either year?
Der Jaeger
Generational EBUG
It is Buffalo luck. But that's the beauty of tanking this season. #2 this year is better than #1 most years.
And I hear that Reinhart kid is ok.
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