I think in general you are 100% correct, 7x7 for a 29 year old winger is either a horrible mistake or you're signing the last piece you need to win the Cup. This kid is 22, a Calder nominee, and about as proven as you can be at his age so 7x7 is more reasonable but still maybe a bit much.
Isn't this as much about Matthews and Marner, as it is Nylander?
If Nylander played for the Islanders, Sens, even the Coyotes....he's already signed to a 7x7+ type deal. Recent Comps = Evander Kane, JVR. UFA deals, but Toronto has a chance to buy Nylander out of UFA years.
Toronto needs to pay Matthews who should land between $11-12M AAV and Marner $8-$9M. Where does that leave Nylander? $6M AAV?
Dubas has ranges for all 3 players...obviously he'll move on Matthews if necessary and likely Marner as well....but that leaves little/no room to move on Nylander.
So let's get him here in AZ. What's the cost? Chychrun, Perlini and 2019 2nd?