Off-season roster thread #3 -- Post-draft and upcoming Free Agency

[EichHart]

I reached for Dahls 61st overall but I am very confident in him blowing up this year for 65-70 points.

I took him at 63 in a highly competitive league with a big buyin.

 

[Buffalo Norsemen]

Weeger resigns in Cal for 8 years. Cross another dream off the list. Don't think KA/TG would want anything to do with 50M with Dahlin coming up. Very good player though.

 

[joshjull]

Faceoffs are one part of hockey that I am absolutely convinced that the analytics community has wrong. I'm not sure I'm eloquent enough to explain my thoughts on it.

I think what it comes down to is that on a large enough time scale (say over the course of a season)......sure, faceoffs effect could/should even out.

But I think it underplays situations like:
1a.) A faceoff in the defensive zone that immediately turns into a GA/GWGA.
1b.) A faceoff loss in the defensive zone that is never cleared and turns into a GA/GWGA.
2.) An opening faceoff in OT where the losing team basically never sees the puck

There's gotta be a way to separate neutral zone faceoff effects from D-zone faceoff effects.

I read a report awhile ago that broke down the impacts of various zone start wins. If I can find it I’ll post a link.

 

[Fezzy126]

When have you ever seen that happen 5v5?

Thats 2 to 3 line changes after the faceoff loss. Maybe, and I stress maybe, it could happen after an icing during the long change in the 2nd period. But thats a stretch.

I was referring to real time, not game time. Meaning a 60 second shift followed by an icing and a prolonged shift. But either way I did say it was theoretical, I have literally done zero research about it.

I think it's funny, because faceoffs are probably very similar to other odd attributes like having the long change, last change as the home team, first stick down on the faceoff, etc. If you look at it strictly from a GF/GA over a a long sample all of these things probably have very little effect. But in the microanalysis of a single game or shift they absolutely matter.

 

[alehman42]

I was referring to real time, not game time. Meaning a 60 second shift followed by an icing and a prolonged shift. But either way I did say it was theoretical, I have literally done zero research about it.

I think it's funny, because faceoffs are probably very similar to other odd attributes like having the long change, last change as the home team, first stick down on the faceoff, etc. If you look at it strictly from a GF/GA over a a long sample all of these things probably have very little effect. But in the microanalysis of a single game or shift they absolutely matter.

I saw a good paper analyzing face-off importance a few years ago and over the last two days I spent more time than I should've looking for it in order to give credit where credit is due (with no success), but the main takeaways:

Some face-offs are higher leverage than others, but even the so-called "high-leverage" face-offs aren't as important as most people estimate. Even-strength neutral zone face-offs are essentially meaningless, but even on the PK and in overtime the importance is small enough that it shouldn't affect lineup decisions. I.e., it's always better to have Tage Thompson on the ice rather than Cody Eakin, as the decrease in your chances of winning the face-off are more than offset by having a better player on the ice immediately after the face-off.

The lone exception is when one team has pulled their goalie, as it's so important for the team that has the extra skater to maintain possession that winning face-offs becomes a *significant* factor in predicting GF/GA.

If you're going to be a bad face-off team (say, 45%), you're better off getting there with a couple 35% guys and a couple 55% guys than you would be with everyone at 45%, as you can tilt the higher leverage situations towards the guys who are better at it...but you're still better off with your best players getting the most ice time regardless of face-off percentage.

Unfortunately Thompson, Mittelstadt, Cozens, Krebs, Asplund, and Girgensons are all between 36% and 46% for their careers. If nobody improves much, the Sabres may end up finding out exactly how far you can push the lower bound of this analysis.

 

[jcbeze]

I really hope they keep 8D and 13F. They think Vinny can play up and down the lineup, right? So why not have 13 F with him rotating on every line while we have and even number of D pairs?

 

[Jacob582]

Bryson fan here who is wowed by his skating with the puck. I'm trying to figure out how he only has 19 points in 111 games. I think I saw it tonight. Many times the puck just died after he tried to make a pass, whether it was in the neutral zone or offensive zone.

 

[cybresabre]

When have you ever seen that happen 5v5?

Thats 2 to 3 line changes after the faceoff loss. Maybe, and I stress maybe, it could happen after an icing during the long change in the 2nd period. But thats a stretch.

Here's a site that breaks down a lot of fun and interesting situations like icings and offsides.
We had the 2nd worst faceoff percentage defending icings last year (41.67%) but had better than average (13/32) results defending icings.

Oddly enough, we had the 6th highest faceoff percentage following opponent icings and similarly better than average (12/32) results in the offensive zone.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Weeger resigns in Cal for 8 years. Cross another dream off the list. Don't think KA/TG would want anything to do with 50M with Dahlin coming up. Very good player though.

Moot point - but that type of contract should be an EASY long term fit - even if you're eventually looking to pay Dahlin/Power more.

 

[Fjordy]

You also need to understand that Dahlin is already getting 6 million, he’s not on the ELC, so that his contract suddenly turns from 925 thousand to 9 million. I would easily give Weegar this contract (6+) in Buffalo, we need normal D and depth.

 

[elchud]

I really hope they keep 8D and 13F. They think Vinny can play up and down the lineup, right? So why not have 13 F with him rotating on every line while we have and even number of D pairs?

I think there will usually if not always be someone on IR. Meaning effectively we will always be at 14G and 8D.

Or. UPL can be called up once in a while to be the 23rd if someone is on IR.

I think you should waive Bjork. He won't be claimed. He can be sent up and down as needed.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

I think there will usually if not always be someone on IR. Meaning effectively we will always be at 14G and 8D.

Or. UPL can be called up once in a while to be the 23rd if someone is on IR.

I think you should waive Bjork. He won't be claimed. He can be sent up and down as needed.

14G?

That's ambitious - but we got halfway there last season...

 

[Matt Ress]

Bryson fan here who is wowed by his skating with the puck. I'm trying to figure out how he only has 19 points in 111 games. I think I saw it tonight. Many times the puck just died after he tried to make a pass, whether it was in the neutral zone or offensive zone.

He does skate and move the puck well. Maybe because he doesn't seem to be a guy that will pick up a puck and fire it down ice in transition. He seems to make a quick short pass or lug it himself. Not a bad thing but puts another stick or two in between him and the net. He also never gets PP time.

 

[RefsIdeas]

He does skate and move the puck well. Maybe because he doesn't seem to be a guy that will pick up a puck and fire it down ice in transition. He seems to make a quick short pass or lug it himself. Not a bad thing but puts another stick or two in between him and the net. He also never gets PP time.

Not really an excuse as he’s literally the worst in the NHL at 5v5 points per 60. He skates the puck out of the zone and does almost nothing else. I’m mystified how people keep defending him. Watch closely and you’ll see.

 

[yahhockey]

Looking forward to the season and hopefully continued development from the younger players.

 

[Matt Ress]

Not really an excuse as he’s literally the worst in the NHL at 5v5 points per 60. He skates the puck out of the zone and does almost nothing else. I’m mystified how people keep defending him. Watch closely and you’ll see.

I don't disagree. His skating opens up lanes but he doesn't have notable vision. All safe passes that are fine but never really dangerous. He also doesn't skate into dangerous areas. He can move the puck out and through the neutral zone but then dishes before things get real. His defensive positioning is decent. It has to be for a smaller guy to be effective.

 

[Sabreality]

Not really an excuse as he’s literally the worst in the NHL at 5v5 points per 60. He skates the puck out of the zone and does almost nothing else. I’m mystified how people keep defending him. Watch closely and you’ll see.

yeah outside of the 'wow' factor in his skating, what else is there? His up ice pass isnt good because he never had to develop it due to his skating ability, but when he gets up ice then what? A lot of dieing plays or skating into trouble. In his own end, yeah he tries hard, because he has to due to a lack of size and positional awareness. He doesn't track particularly well or have elite stick work, he has to go max effort to keep up. There's just too much chaos in his game for me, nothing against Bryson, but I think he's more of a 15-20gm 7D than a 5/6 on a good team.

I just think Pilut is a better hockey player, he's quiet, positionally aware and tracks his man well, strong stick work and a much better up ice passer. Kinda boring which is what I want with Lybushkin on the 3rd pair. I want to make Booshs life easier too, without having to cover for Brysons chaos.

Edit: But I do understand why Don would give Bryson 1st opportunity, keeps up the good vibes for a guy who was here last year to start the year, his play can dictate the next move.

 

[Dingo44]

 

[jc17]

Being able to exit the zone with possession was not a common skill for many of our dmen the past decade, which is probably why a lot of people like him.

 

[joshjull]

yeah outside of the 'wow' factor in his skating, what else is there? His up ice pass isnt good because he never had to develop it due to his skating ability, but when he gets up ice then what? A lot of dieing plays or skating into trouble. In his own end, yeah he tries hard, because he has to due to a lack of size and positional awareness. He doesn't track particularly well or have elite stick work, he has to go max effort to keep up. There's just too much chaos in his game for me, nothing against Bryson, but I think he's more of a 15-20gm 7D than a 5/6 on a good team.

I just think Pilut is a better hockey player, he's quiet, positionally aware and tracks his man well, strong stick work and a much better up ice passer. Kinda boring which is what I want with Lybushkin on the 3rd pair. I want to make Booshs life easier too, without having to cover for Brysons chaos.

Edit: But I do understand why Don would give Bryson 1st opportunity, keeps up the good vibes for a guy who was here last year to start the year, his play can dictate the next move.

A bottom pairing dman that can consistently skate the puck out of danger in your end is now described as someone who is “chaos“ and “can’t do anything but skate”. Sure sure sure.

As for Pilut, I like him and hope he does well to force himself into the convo. But camp isn’t enough time for that to happen yet.

 

[old kummelweck]

Looking forward to the season and hopefully continued development from the younger players.

I hate to admit this, but I actually like Hino on the first line. Kind of seeing a Bunting fit there.

I hope VO can help that line go and has a great year.

 

[BuffaloSabresSword]

Will Jack Quinn be good ?

 

[Zman5778]

Will Jack Quinn be good ?

That's the million dollar question.

Early returns are good........hopefully it's not a question of "if" he's good, but a question of "how" good he is.

 

[BuffaloSabresSword]

Will Jack Quinn be good ?

Not as good Ahl stats as vanek

That's the million dollar question.

Early returns are good........hopefully it's not a question of "if" he's good, but a question of "how" good he is.

not as good Ahl stats as vanek and pominville ? Vanek much better goals. Pom also better stats i believe. Hope he can be really good .

 

[Dingo44]