Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Madness the 13th: Report - Dickey extended, trade just pending physicals

[TootooTrain]

Cant have an allstar at every position.

Secondly Lind is the DH, EE is at 1st base everyday... much better defensively.

I don't know about 'much' better. I'd say they're equivilant. The only issue separating them defensively is Lind's re-occurring back issues.

 

[McMatthews]

R.A Dickey (15-18 wins)
Brandon Morrow (15-18 wins)
Josh Johnson (15-18 wins)
Mark Buehrle (10-12 wins)
Ricky Romero (12-15 wins)

BULLPEN (26-30 wins)

Jose Reyes (15 HR, 75 RBI, .300)
Melky Cabrera (15 HR, 75 RBI, .300)
Jose Bautista (35 HR, 90 RBI, .280)
Edwin Encarnacion (35 HR, 80 RBI, .270)
Adam Lind (20 HR, 70 RBI, .255)
Brett Lawrie (20 HR, 75 RBI, .280)
Colby Rasmus (18 HR, 70 RBI, .230)
Maicer Izturis (4 HR, 40 RBI, .260)
JP Arencibia (20 HR, 70 RBI, .230)

Just some conservative projections that I'd be happy with. We had 26 wins out of the bullpen last season. I think we've upgraded with a full season of Delabar, Lincoln and Rogers. If we can get 26-30 wins out of the pen and the projected minimum out of a healthy starting rotation, we would be in line for a minimum of 88 wins.

 

[topched]

Which actually speaks to how awful Lind is.

EE was always good with the glove... He was an everyday 3b for years and his glove was always steady... It was his arm that typically gave everyone fits.

Arm is not even a factor at 1st, he's actually probably got an above average arm as a 1b.

Lind is awful defensively, but EE is average-above average.

 

[Leafsdude7]

Cant have an allstar at every position.

Secondly Lind is the DH, EE is at 1st base everyday... much better defensively.

Honestly, I think Lind is the better defensive 1B, though EE is definitely passable. Can't go wrong either way, IMO.

In the end, the fact is it's going to cost 15M+ over an extended term to get anyone half decent off the UFA wire, and I doubt there's a better option than Lind available through trade that would make sense. I think hold onto Lind and deal with whatever he gives you. If he's crap, ah well, pretty sure we'll still be pretty good offensively, and if he actually plays decently, then great.

 

[smitty10]

R.A Dickey (15-18 wins)
Brandon Morrow (15-18 wins)
Josh Johnson (15-18 wins)
Mark Buehrle (10-12 wins)
Ricky Romero (12-15 wins)

BULLPEN (25-30 wins)

Jose Reyes (15 HR, 75 RBI, .300)
Melky Cabrera (15 HR, 75 RBI, .300)
Jose Bautista (35 HR, 90 RBI, .280)
Edwin Encarnacion (35 HR, 80 RBI, .270)
Adam Lind (20 HR, 70 RBI, .255)
Brett Lawrie (20 HR, 75 RBI, .280)
Colby Rasmus (18 HR, 70 RBI, .230)
Maicer Izturis (4 HR, 40 RBI, .260)
JP Arencibia (20 HR, 70 RBI, .230)

Just some conservative projections that I'd be happy with.

Some of those projections aren't very 'conservative'.

 

[91Kadri91*]

Honestly, if the only flaw in our lineup is Lind, I think we're okay.

Arencibia and Rasmus too, unless they improve substantially from last year (which is certainly possible).

 

[Leafsdude7]

R.A Dickey (15-18 wins)
Brandon Morrow (15-18 wins)
Josh Johnson (15-18 wins)
Mark Buehrle (10-12 wins)
Ricky Romero (12-15 wins)

BULLPEN (25-30 wins)

Jose Reyes (15 HR, 75 RBI, .300)
Melky Cabrera (15 HR, 75 RBI, .300)
Jose Bautista (35 HR, 90 RBI, .280)
Edwin Encarnacion (35 HR, 80 RBI, .270)
Adam Lind (20 HR, 70 RBI, .255)
Brett Lawrie (20 HR, 75 RBI, .280)
Colby Rasmus (18 HR, 70 RBI, .230)
Maicer Izturis (4 HR, 40 RBI, .260)
JP Arencibia (20 HR, 70 RBI, .230)

Just some conservative projections that I'd be happy with.

If Reyes and Cabrera both hit 300, those in bold are really conservative. I'd expect 100+ easily if Reyes and Cabrera get base hits 3/10 times over the season.

 

[Sokil]

Lind's year last year was 50/50 and I guess we can say 2013 will also be a 50/50 chance of him being good again or sucking hard, we'll see. Same can be said for Rasmus.

 

[Drew311]

He faced the Yankees last year.....6 innings, 5 runs.

That's the thing with Dickey's knuckler. It's either on or it's not. He doesn't have a lot on "in-between" outings, he either dominates or gets beat up. Although he seems to dominate more often than not.

 

[91Kadri91*]

Cant have an allstar at every position.

Secondly Lind is the DH, EE is at 1st base everyday... much better defensively.

That's simply not true.

Lind is, statistically, superior defensively to Edwin by a fairly large margin.

 

[Eyedea]

Next thread title should feature the obligatory "suck it Farrell"

 

[Leafsdude7]

Arencibia and Rasmus too, unless they improve substantially from last year (which is certainly possible).

Arencibia and Rasmus have enough power to make their low averages bearable at 6 and 8, and Rasmus' defense makes him not much of a flaw anyway.

I think Morgan's RBI estimates are way high for these two, but if they can even get 20 HR and ~60 RBIs while batting .220-.250, that's pretty good.

 

[91Kadri91*]

EE was always good with the glove... He was an everyday 3b for years and his glove was always steady... It was his arm that typically gave everyone fits.

Arm is not even a factor at 1st, he's actually probably got an above average arm as a 1b.

Lind is awful defensively, but EE is average-above average.

WOAH! Hold on a second, I don't think we're don't about the same guy.

Edwin is awful, I mean awful defensively. He's historically atrocious at third-base, and he's well below-average at first-base.

We can't be talking about the same guy. Are you sure you're thinking of Edwin Encarnacion?

 

[Eyedea]

EE will get 45/120

book it

 

[91Kadri91*]

Arencibia and Rasmus have enough power to make their low averages bearable at 6 and 8, and Rasmus' defense makes him not much of a flaw anyway.

I think Morgan's RBI estimates are way high for these two, but if they can even get 20 HR and ~60 RBIs while batting .220-.250, that's pretty good.

Arencibia was below-average both offensively and defensively last year, and Rasmus was absolutely atrocious at the plate. His defense was okay last year, but despite his reputation, he's actually been a slightly below-average fielder over his career.

 

[Leafsdude7]

That's simply not true.

Lind is, statistically, superior defensively to Edwin by a fairly large margin.

Not at 1B:

Lind: 181GP, 1541.2 Inn, 9 Err, .995 F%, 9.27 RF
EE: 95 GP, 782.1 Inn, 7 Err, 991 F%, 9.71 RF

Edge to Lind, for sure, but their fielding percentage isn't that much different.

 

[TootooTrain]

WOAH! Hold on a second, I don't think we're don't about the same guy.

Edwin is awful, I mean awful defensively. He's historically atrocious at third-base, and he's well below-average at first-base.

We can't be talking about the same guy. Are you sure you're thinking of Edwin Encarnacion?

Say what you want about last year, he's improved by leaps and bounds defensively at the 1st base position since that horror show where everything he did made things worse. As long as he's not throwing the ball, he's a serviceable 1st baseman (defensively). Not much more than that.

 

[weems]

Dickey Vs the AL the past 3 seasons: 7-0, 1.77 ERA

 

[superhakan]

Bonifacio had a wRC+ of 37 against lefties this year, compared to a wRC+ of 99 against righties. To be fair though, over his career, Bonifacio has hit lefties better.

I only checked career splits, not last season.

Still holds true I guess. However, both their splits were not significantly bigger than one another.

 

[topched]

Not at 1B:

Lind: 181GP, 1541.2 Inn, 9 Err, .995 F%, 9.27 RF
EE: 95 GP, 782.1 Inn, 7 Err, 991 F%, 9.71 RF

Edge to Lind, for sure, but their fielding percentage isn't that much different.

Say what you want about last year, he's improved by leaps and bounds defensively at the 1st base position since that horror show where everything he did made things worse. As long as he's not throwing the ball, he's a serviceable 1st baseman (defensively). Not much more than that.

These.

Combined with the fact that this was the first time Edwin actually played firstbase at more than an "emergency/last resort" level, and that Lind can't stay healthy while playing 1b... and I'll take EE every day.

Not that I want to get into advanced fielding too much etc. but with regards to UZR... does it factor in plays where the ball was not hit to you... ie) a scoop at first?

 

[Chandrashekhar Limit]

Bob McCowan is such a ****ing idiot.

 

[jcollins]

WOAH! Hold on a second, I don't think we're don't about the same guy.

Edwin is awful, I mean awful defensively. He's historically atrocious at third-base, and he's well below-average at first-base.

We can't be talking about the same guy. Are you sure you're thinking of Edwin Encarnacion?

He was terrible at 3B indeed, but the guy was saying the issue was his arm, not his catching abilities.

 

[Jatt]

Bob McCowan is such a ****ing idiot.

recap?

 

[KuleminFan41]

Apparently 57 days until Spring Training

 

[Chandrashekhar Limit]

recap?

He says the Jays aren't the favs to win the AL East because "pitching isn't everything".

Sid brings us the batting lineup, he says's its not perfect