Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season Edition 5.0 - The Winter Meeting Chronicles

[Canada4Gold]

he was bad this year, really bad. pitched in relief for the first time in his career. Possible starter depth? IDK but he shouldn't get much of anything

 

[ShaneFalco]

 

[Loosie]

 

[Discoverer]

Can we all place our bets on how long it takes for one of the usuals to complain that the Red Sox got Sale and the Jays countered with Oberholtzer? I would be surprised if it goes more than 20 minutes.

 

[Neil Hamburger]

He doesn't seem to have much upside, and isn't all that great against lefties, he sounds just like a depth bullpen arm.

Scouting report from: http://crashburnalley.com/2016/02/11/who-are-you-brett-oberholtzer/

Oberholtzer is a fastball/changeup pitcher who has struggled to develop a breaking pitch to adequately counter same-side hitters. He has used a knuckle curve throughout his career, but the pitch has never been successful at the major league level. Last year he began incorporating a slider with some success in a very limited sample.

His arsenal is not impressive on the surface and looks to be diminishing at an alarming rate. Keep in mind Oberholtzer is entering his age 26 season while you take a look at his velocity chart from BrooksBaseball:

Since debuting in 2013, he has lost about 2 MPH on his entire pitch arsenal and now sports a fastball which sits below 90 MPH. Throughout his career, though, he’s been known to get the most out of his relatively weak pitch repertoire due to excellent command/control. His strikeout rates have been low throughout his career because he doesn’t often miss bats, but his command shows itself in his stellar walk-rates.


K% BB%
2013 15.4% 4.4%
2014 15.1% 4.5%
2015 15.8% 9.9%
Career 15.3% 5.3%

This is where I remind you of the incredibly small sample size represented by his 2015 season. It’s certainly reasonable to acknowledge that his walk-rate last season was more than twice what it had been in the rest of his major league career, but it’s impossible to draw any definitive conclusions from 38.1 innings pitched. For what it’s worth, in 70 innings at Triple-A last summer, his walk-rate was 4.1 percent. There’s no reason (yet) not to trust his long-standing reputation as a strike-thrower going forward.

With the new slider he added last year, Oberholtzer induced a lot of ground balls and it showed up in his overall numbers. His ground-ball rate increased from 35.6 percent in 2013 to 37.2 percent in 2014 before skyrocketing to 48.8 percent in 2015. This is certainly a trend to keep an eye on going forward in the 2016 season. Keeping the ball on the ground in Citizens Bank Park would likely be a positive performance indicator.

Because his best secondary is a changeup, Oberholtzer sports relatively neutral platoon splits. In fact, the lefty has been slightly better in his career against right-handed batters (.722 opponent OPS) than left-handed batters (.769 opponent OPS). If he can refine his slider into a dependable weapon, those splits could normalize going forward.

 

[Acekicker123]

MLB insider Jon Paul Morosi joins Hazel to discuss Rockies outfielder Charlie Blackmon as a good fit for the Toronto Blue Jays, but it might cost Marcus Stroman, and the latest on Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/morosi-blackmon-good-fit-jays-might-cost-stroman/

No....

Blackmon's coming off a nice 4 WAR season but inflated by a huge BABIP and out-of-nowhere ISO.

His career average of about 2.2 WAR/600 AB sounds about right moving forward, possibly with a little more upside given recent performance.

Weird that Steamer absolutely hates him though - projected 1.2 WAR in 650 AB's next year.

 

[Kurtz]

Brett Oberholtzer was able to accrue an FWar of -1.0 in only 70 relief innings last year.

That's bloody impressive, I don't care who you are!

 

[Canada4Gold]

minor league deal with ST invite for Ober......(can't spell it not gonna try)

 

[Eyedea]

Last year probably says that Oberholtzer is just one of those starters that is unable to transition to the bullpen. Small sample be damned his velocity and stuff just didn't trend up. Having him as AAA depth isn't terrible though. Bolsinger is still the 6th guy anyway.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

I'm switching to Bell from Rogers if they can't sign EE.

#EEorBell

 

[Dr.Funk]

I'm switching to Bell from Rogers if they can't sign EE.

#EEorBell

Might aswell start the process.

 

[Canada4Gold]

you probably should switch to Bell anyway regardless of what the Jays do

 

[theaub]

re: the Pearce stuff - the old rule used to be you couldn't trade a FA until June 15, but now you can if they agree to go.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Might aswell start the process.

So you aren't telling me there is a chance ?

 

[no13matssundin]

Aaaand talk of trading Stro returns... weren't we just saying how trading him was liquid madness?!?

 

[Walshy7]

I'm switching to Bell from Rogers if they can't sign EE.

#EEorBell

that'll show em. "Hey boss you need to see this" "what is it Johnson?" "well sir I don't know what im seeing one guy left rogers and went to bell!?!?!?"

 

[no13matssundin]

So is the WAR magic saying this new lefty isn't that great a pickup? That he's projecting to be nominally worse? Yikes.

Edit: It's a minor league deal, so that doesn't hurt too much then.

 

[Clark4Ever]

I'm switching to Bell from Rogers if they can't sign EE.

#EEorBell

I switched a year ago. Bell has better HD picture quality and I've saved about $80/month for virtually the same TV/internet/home phone package.

I still want Edwin back though.

 

[Walshy7]

I switched a year ago. Bell has better HD picture quality and I've saved about $80/month for virtually the same TV/internet/home phone package.

I still want Edwin back though.

if you are still watching sportsnet they are still making money, advertising makes more than the % of your bill allocated to sportsnet.

 

[Neil Hamburger]

So is the WAR magic saying this new lefty isn't that great a pickup? That he's projecting to be nominally worse? Yikes.

It all depends on context - if he is just a depth guy playing in AAA who might get a shot due to injury, or if he just pitches in low leverage situations, it could be a good pickup. If we give him high leverage innings in the majors, it would obviously be a bad pickup.

He's just a depth piece, nothing to get excited or angry about.

It would be like the Leafs signing a guy like Mark Arcobello, or something. If he carves out a role on the big club, great, it was a good move - if he doesn't, and just pays in the AHL (or AAA), who cares - we used no assets to acquire him, and he isn't taking a job from someone else.

 

[no13matssundin]

It all depends on context - if he is just a depth guy playing in AAA who might get a shot due to injury, or if he just pitches in low leverage situations, it could be a good pickup. If we give him high leverage innings in the majors, it would obviously be a bad pickup.

He's just a depth piece, nothing to get excite or angry about.

It would be like the Leafs signing a guy like Mark Arcobello, or something.

Ya, I just saw that it's a minor league deal so it makes sense.

 

[zeke]

exactly the kind of guy you want in AAA.

 

[Clark4Ever]

if you are still watching sportsnet they are still making money, advertising makes more than the % of your bill allocated to sportsnet.

Oh I know. I didn't switch to get back at Rogers for anything Blue Jays related. I just got tired of my bill constantly increasing for no apparent reason.

 

[zeke]

revere should have similar value as oberholzer.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Aaaand talk of trading Stro returns... weren't we just saying how trading him was liquid madness?!?

Its just a media (both local and American) idea, spurned simply by laziness really. Also, some odd hatred a couple of the local media have for him...for some reason (McCown, for one).

Atkins was asked bluntly about it this morning, and answered that it would take a drastic overpay to even consider it. That ain't Blackmon. Heck, its easier to list the players who represent drastic overpays since the list is quite short.