OFF DAY THREAD! Jeff Carter Edition

[Pens x]

No Trotz though. And we got Todd Reirden.

Yes, yes we did get Todd Reirden.

 

[Darren McCord]

In further analytics stuff, Dom L did an updated in depth look at SC winning probabilities post deadline.

He has us at 3.4%. He does also have Jankowski in his line up ahead of Tanev tho, which makes a small difference. Looking at his model, the things holding us back are uncertainty over Jarry, and regressions for Zucker, Marino, and Pettersson.

It should also be noted he's rather low on all teams in the east - Boston are highest at 10.7%, something which he says his model is actively wrong on - and while I think that's at least somewhat fair given the talent distributions elsewhere, I can't help but wonder if this is a function of looking at in season statistics in a division that's tougher top to bottom than the others. It's impressive that Colorado have the highest xGF% since records began, but maybe there needs to be questions about whether that happens in a division that isn't so weak that Minnesota look like a heavyweight...

Boston at the highest is pretty bad. Boston has struggled a lot outside of the top line and PP. I do not think Hall is going to fix scoring issues. They did not look great against Buffalo. If Ullmark played the whole game, they likely lose.

 

[Andy99]

Pens caps series will come down to defense... both can obviously put up big time numbers, but which team buckles down and really gets in the face of the other team and smothers them out.... that is who will come out victorious.

would add goaltending to that: both teams have young goalies and whoever’s net minding is better in the POs will win...

 

[LOGiK]

would add goaltending to that: both teams have young goalies and whoever’s net minding is better in the POs will win...

Yeah that too.

Personally, I'm looking forward to the rematch after 2018... I'm ready for this...

 

[SEALBound]

Yeah that too.

Personally, I'm looking forward to the rematch after 2018... I'm ready for this...

I think this playoffs we will have a big opportunity to sleigh a lot of demons. 2018 - Capitals, 2013 - Bruins, 2019 - Islanders, triumph over the TBL again, 1996 - Florida, and my personal hope is for an Edmonton or Toronto showdown.

 

[Khelandros]

I think this playoffs we will have a big opportunity to sleigh a lot of demons. 2018 - Capitals, 2013 - Bruins, 2019 - Islanders, triumph over the TBL again, 1996 - Florida, and my personal hope is for an Edmonton or Toronto showdown.

Western Conference is going to be represented by someone from the West Conference. Neither Toronto or Edmonton can beat Colorado or Vegas.

 

[Peat]

Yea that’s a pretty flawed model if it’s still accounting for certain players horrid starts. Namely Geno, Marino and Jarry.

Iirc, it aggregates the last three seasons, so Malkin's expected contribution is still pretty high - although sizeably different from what he expected at the season's beginning - and Jarry's projection hasn't changed much. Marino's has been hammered though.

Have to say that with both Malkin and Marino, while they've currently sloughed off their awful starts (or had in Malkin's case), they still weren't going at last season's rate either.

But yeah. The model's not perfect.

Incidentally, it amuses me that his model likes this team more than it did at the start of the year, but has still reduced its odds of winning a Cup.

 

[Ryder71]

Pens caps series will come down to defense... both can obviously put up big time numbers, but which team buckles down and really gets in the face of the other team and smothers them out.... that is who will come out victorious.

It also could be a war of attrition. If it's a question as to which team dishes out more punishment, it likely won't be us.

 

[The Old Master]

It also could be a war of attrition. If it's a question as to which team dishes out more punishment, it likely won't be us.

they would need to catch us to hit us....and if we are skating, i don't see that happing. if we are standing around with our thumbs up our buts will then maybe but then we wouldn't be winning anyhow.

 

[Bingo71]

It also could be a war of attrition. If it's a question as to which team dishes out more punishment, it likely won't be us.

BINGO.

Sure, the usual argument is that the Pens can just use their speed to skate the Caps right out of the rink and actually avoid hits altogether, but we all know that’s not reality.

I can almost guarantee that a series against the Caps would result in at least one injury, likely more. And it might not even be an injury that knocks someone out of the lineup, but creates a nagging ailment that makes them way less effective and maybe even a liability.

 

[Bingo71]

they would need to catch us to hit us....and if we are skating, i don't see that happing. if we are standing around with our thumbs up our buts will then maybe but then we wouldn't be winning anyhow.

Oh, whooooops, there it is already...lol

 

[theicebox]

It would be interesting to see a Zohorna - Carter - Angello line in the future.

 

[The Old Master]

It would be interesting to see a Zohorna - Carter - Angello line in the future.

it would be a great help to the wingers. they could learn a lot from that guy.

 

[Andy99]

so it always looks like Zohorna will get in at practice but then he never does...sad....

 

[metalan2]

so it always looks like Zohorna will get in at practice but then he never does...sad....

These lines suck and will not work. We are looking at the Pens struggling for the foreseeable future until they are changed.

The bottom six is neutered again and will contribute nothing.

The second line may contribute at times, but likely not much.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

so it always looks like Zohorna will get in at practice but then he never does...sad....

Thanks, Sully, for telling us absolutely nothing about when we might be able to expect any of those guys back.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

Nice article/interviews by Taylor Haase on the Pens record losing streak and that season in general: Pittsburgh Steelers, Penguins, Pirates News, Live Coverage | DK Pittsburgh Sports

No spoilers: Lol at Straka. Also, I got to go to so many games that season. Ric Jackman and Matt Bradley were my favorites, for whatever reason. I also didn't know that that thing happened to Koltsov in the Arizona game.

 

[Big McLargehuge]

Nice article/interviews by Taylor Haase on the Pens record losing streak and that season in general: Pittsburgh Steelers, Penguins, Pirates News, Live Coverage | DK Pittsburgh Sports

No spoilers: Lol at Straka. Also, I got to go to so many games that season. Ric Jackman and Matt Bradley were my favorites, for whatever reason. I also didn't know that that thing happened to Koltsov in the Arizona game.

Malone: "(Marty Straka) just said, 'Watch this, Bugsy,' and he went over and said 'F--- You' to the ref and got kicked out of the game. That could have been a good veteran move back in the day, he got his rest. Straka and those guys were great guys to learn from, to learn from those guys was a privilege."

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

It sucks the Caps are still a great team. I like to think the Pens are always a more dangerous team lying in wait but I think they are also. Good culture over there. Mantha will blossom. Different team than we last faced. Laviolette, Hags, Chara, Sheary, Samsonov.... It's not all about the Pens but they're built with an eye to the Pens.

No Trotz though. And we got Todd Reirden.

I disagree that they are built with an eye towards the Pens. Pens looked too fast for the Caps in the games they played so far. Now you take away one of their fastest players and add another couple tough players. They are trying to recreate the Broad Street Bullies and I don't think it will work.

Pens get even faster and more skilled at the deadline and Caps get tougher and slower. Mantha is a good player but much of what they had already in guys like Ovi and Wilson. Vrana played real well against us so I am glad he is gone.

I look at it like this. Pens have been beating the Caps with speed while not even having our full team. They go from Vrana and Panik to Mantha and Raffl. Makes them different, but better? Pens get Carter who makes the Pens Crosby, Malkin, Carter, Blueger down the middle instead of Crosby, Malkin, Blueger, Jankowski/Gaudreau down the middle. Tell me what team improved more?

Even if you think the Caps upgraded with that trade is it really more than Carter over Jankowski? Not in a million years. Pens just got bigger, more skilled, and faster and now have the center depth to rival 2016 Pens. All Pens top wingers can fly with Kapanen, Rust, McCann, Zucker, Tanev, and Guentzel and now all Centers have wheels also.

This team is faster than 2016 both at forward and defense. Plus this group is more proven than that team was at that time with many unproven rookies in that lineup. You had Sheary and Rust in your top 6 that year and Dumoulin as a rookie defenseman on your top pairing. Murray was still considered a rookie even in his 2017 season. So we had several players on that team that are not near as solid proven players. Our top 9 forwards are all proven good players and our top pairing is proven and one of the best in the game. The only similar position is goalie but of course Jarry has played many more games than Murray did at that time.

I love what the Pens added and believe Carter has a lot left. He looked really strong in the game the other night and gives us 4 very dangerous Centers to put out every shift. When Carter gets those easy matchups when Malkin gets back he is going to dominate the opposition. I don't think people realize how much better Carter makes this team. Again let this sink in Carter in Jankowski out!

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

Who we could then trade for Gostisbehere

Still love what Matheson adds to this team more than what Hornqvist could add at this time. I will take the 26 year old defenseman who is literally one of they fastest defenseman in the NHL and just starting to be let lose offensively over the mid 30's slow winger that wasn't going to play in our top 6. Glad he is doing well now but he wasn't a good fit on this team anymore. His line was by far our worst in that playoff series. If he isn't going to play with Crosby or Malkin he needed to go.

Matheson is going to be an important player for this team over these last few Cup runs. The whole defensive unit has really stepped up their game over these last 20 games and have all put up a ton of points over that stretch. I see that offensive output continuing from this point forward. Todd has down a nice job with this group and even Dumoulin looks like Coffey lately.

 

[Beauner]

Malone: "(Marty Straka) just said, 'Watch this, Bugsy,' and he went over and said 'F--- You' to the ref and got kicked out of the game. That could have been a good veteran move back in the day, he got his rest. Straka and those guys were great guys to learn from, to learn from those guys was a privilege."

I f***in loved marty straka.

 

[Big McLargehuge]

I f***in loved marty straka.

He was my favorite for a good while. Always loved him, always will.

You knew he was born to be a Penguin when a weight machine fell on him.

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

Western Conference is going to be represented by someone from the West Conference. Neither Toronto or Edmonton can beat Colorado or Vegas.

You don't understand what your talking about. No team is ever a sure thing. Saying one of those teams couldn't get beat by the Leafs or Oilers is simple minded. I have seen much worse upsets. 93 Pens by far the best in the league that season and they lost to a far inferior Islanders team. 96 Panthers didn't have one player that could even be in the Pens top 6 and they found a way to beat the Pens. You want something more recent how about that Lightning team 2 years ago with by far the best record in the league losing to the Bluejackets in a 4 game sweep. If the Stars of those teams are on fire and their goaltender gets hot they could easily beat Vegas or Aves.

 

[BHD]

Rewatching the Pens/Caps series from ‘09. 10+ years later, it’s still as entertaining.

 

[Gurglesons]

Rewatching the Pens/Caps series from ‘09. 10+ years later, it’s still as entertaining.

G3 OT goal is p cool.