OFF DAY THREAD! Jeff Carter Edition

[Scandale du Jour]

Last few posts:

The Caps have Sheary and Sprong on their 3rd line. I will not concede having less forward depth to that

At the end of the day, guess those two saw something in the data they like, and the others not so much. I know Dom L really liked the Bruins at the start of the season, and am guessing his model still holds faith in them to be that team when fit. That said - the swing's very minor either way. It's a 1 in 4 gong show where the winner's the team that brings it that particular day. You know that in the last two months, 2nd-4th for points percentage in the whole league has been NYI, WSH, then us? This division is pain.

I do like our forward depth though. If Carter can work at 3C and with Zucker, and we can just stay fit, that's 4 really good lines, and the distance down our depth chart you've got to go before finding someone with no business in the NHL is pretty nuts by now

Yeah, but it's not inexperienced by any means. I honestly think it's a more experienced group than you typically see Cup winners have these days, but I could be wrong.

As long as he gets like three negative tests along the way he can play. But if he gets a positive test...it's 14 days from that point.

Because Carter is a better center than McCann.

They were just to the finals the year before.

Kunitz, Guerin, Fedotenko, Sykora, Adams

Probably right actually. I think St Louis had two.

It's not going to matter near as much as getting that locked in, controlled excitement anyway.

Not this year. We’ll see though.

Can we get this over 9000?

they want to see if carter can still play center.

I totally forgot Sýkora and Kunitz had one as well as Fedotenko.

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[Fordy]

sprong actually is a +8 with 7g 7a in 31 games. shocker to me

 

[Gurglesons]

sprong actually is a +8 with 7g 7a in 31 games. shocker to me

I mean, Washington is the perfect system for him tbh.

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDo]

Sheary has as many points as Carter this year.

 

[HandshakeLine]

We did not, in fact, get it over 9000.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Random but check out Sids stats this year and last year (same number of GP)

Sidney Crosby Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

 

[HandshakeLine]

Random but check out Sids stats this year and last year (same number of GP)

Sidney Crosby Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

If anything, Sid is one consistent mother.

 

[tom_servo]

It sucks the Caps are still a great team. I like to think the Pens are always a more dangerous team lying in wait but I think they are also. Good culture over there. Mantha will blossom. Different team than we last faced. Laviolette, Hags, Chara, Sheary, Samsonov.... It's not all about the Pens but they're built with an eye to the Pens.

No Trotz though. And we got Todd Reirden.

 

[Gurglesons]

It sucks the Caps are still a great team. I like to think the Pens are always a more dangerous team lying in wait but I think they are also. Good culture over there. Mantha will blossom. Different team than we last faced. Laviolette, Hags, Chara, Sheary, Samsonov.... It's not all about the Pens but they're built with an eye to the Pens.

No Trotz though. And we got Todd Reirden.

Their D still sucks and their bottom six is ugly outside of Eller.

 

[Ryder71]

Their D still sucks and their bottom six is ugly outside of Eller.

You're underselling them a bit. I agree their defense isn't great, but it's been serviceable and I don't envy anyone playing them.

 

[Gurglesons]

You're underselling them a bit. I agree their defense isn't great, but it's been serviceable and I don't envy anyone playing them.

I feel like we are going to absolutely blow them out when we play them later in the month and people are going to get really cocky about it.

 

[Ryder71]

I feel like we are going to absolutely blow them out when we play them later in the month and people are going to get really cocky about it.

I think we might sustain injuries to key players. I hope we beat them but in the process not sustain a battering. Playing them in a series win or lose will take a physical toll. If we play them I'd prefer the 2hd round if at all.

 

[Peat]

Washington have pretty weak defensive 5v5 numbers vs Boston and NYI this year. They're strong against us, but that's atypical considering how we usually create chances against them. In a cup run, I feel like their tendency to struggle defensively with fast skilled teams would catch up with them sooner or later. Which - maybe eventually happily - is us. Gotta hope so if we meet them, because that is a lot of offensive talent alright.

 

[Peat]

In further analytics stuff, Dom L did an updated in depth look at SC winning probabilities post deadline.

He has us at 3.4%. He does also have Jankowski in his line up ahead of Tanev tho, which makes a small difference. Looking at his model, the things holding us back are uncertainty over Jarry, and regressions for Zucker, Marino, and Pettersson.

It should also be noted he's rather low on all teams in the east - Boston are highest at 10.7%, something which he says his model is actively wrong on - and while I think that's at least somewhat fair given the talent distributions elsewhere, I can't help but wonder if this is a function of looking at in season statistics in a division that's tougher top to bottom than the others. It's impressive that Colorado have the highest xGF% since records began, but maybe there needs to be questions about whether that happens in a division that isn't so weak that Minnesota look like a heavyweight...

 

[Peat]

Also just noticed Bjugstad has missed 4 games for the Wild with an UBI and there's no date for a comeback so maybe we miss our 7th after all.

Edit: He was hurt in a fight?! Goddamnit Nick, what you do that for?

 

[The Old Master]

I feel like we are going to absolutely blow them out when we play them later in the month and people are going to get really cocky about it.

like we are not cocky now.

 

[HandshakeLine]

and there's no date for a comeback so maybe we miss our 7th after all.

Lol, of course, it could only be this way.

 

[Peat]

Lol, of course, it could only be this way.

I bet that 7th is the next Hornqvist.

 

[SomeDude]

I bet that 7th is the next Hornqvist.

Who we could then trade for Gostisbehere

 

[Peat]

Who we could then trade for Gostisbehere

Well, not if Bjugstad can't stay fit we can't. So maybe this is for the best.

 

[Turin]

In further analytics stuff, Dom L did an updated in depth look at SC winning probabilities post deadline.

He has us at 3.4%. He does also have Jankowski in his line up ahead of Tanev tho, which makes a small difference. Looking at his model, the things holding us back are uncertainty over Jarry, and regressions for Zucker, Marino, and Pettersson.

It should also be noted he's rather low on all teams in the east - Boston are highest at 10.7%, something which he says his model is actively wrong on - and while I think that's at least somewhat fair given the talent distributions elsewhere, I can't help but wonder if this is a function of looking at in season statistics in a division that's tougher top to bottom than the others. It's impressive that Colorado have the highest xGF% since records began, but maybe there needs to be questions about whether that happens in a division that isn't so weak that Minnesota look like a heavyweight...

Does his model take into account that the Pens have lost like 7 games since JR left despite being the most injured team again?

 

[Peat]

Does his model take into account that the Pens have lost like 7 games since JR left despite being the most injured team again?

Probably not, since it's mostly about evaluating individual players then adding the results together, rather than evaluating the team's results.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I see Dom L forgot to include the aggregated BOFA sample along with the xGF%.

 

[LOGiK]

Their D still sucks and their bottom six is ugly outside of Eller.

You're underselling them a bit. I agree their defense isn't great, but it's been serviceable and I don't envy anyone playing them.

Pens caps series will come down to defense... both can obviously put up big time numbers, but which team buckles down and really gets in the face of the other team and smothers them out.... that is who will come out victorious.

 

[Turin]

Probably not, since it's mostly about evaluating individual players then adding the results together, rather than evaluating the team's results.

Yea that’s a pretty flawed model if it’s still accounting for certain players horrid starts. Namely Geno, Marino and Jarry.