Observations XXVI full ** v. XXVII started

[Predsanddead24]

This discussion came up before but if you dig into the stats for Rinne versus Saros each have one thing that is ultimately killing them. Rinne's is his PK sv% and Saros's is his HDSV%. Outside of that both guys numbers really aren't bad at all. I know next to nothing about the mechanics of being a goalie so I won't pretend I have any idea to fix each of those issues, but it's pretty easy to pinpoint the problem at least.

 

[GoldOnGold]

Big section on the Preds in today's 31 thoughts:

7. For the first time since Jan. 27, 1994, David Poile fired a coach in-season. (That was Jim Schoenfeld replacing Terry Murray in Washington.) A couple of non-Predators analytics people think Nashville’s underlying numbers are strong. For example, they are plus-20 at five-on-five — third in the NHL in goals in that situation, their 103 behind only Colorado (110) and Toronto (106). Because their power play is 23rd and penalty kill 29th, they are an ugly minus-19 in all other situations.
Recognizing that special teams can be delegated to assistants, New Jersey’s penalty kill was very good under Hynes. There were three top-10 appearances in his four full seasons, culminating with fourth overall in 2018-19. The power play fluctuated, finishing ninth in 2015-16 and 10th in 2017-18, but also 21st and 22nd.

8. It’s not hard to find reasons why Hynes was Nashville’s choice. The history with assistant GM Jeff Kealty. Poile’s closeness with Hynes’ former bosses in New Jersey, Ray Shero and Tom Fitzgerald, for a detailed breakdown. Poile has a loyalty to USA Hockey. There is, as with any situation where a coach is fired mid-contract, a financial factor, too. Peter Laviolette had next season remaining, at approximately $2.5 million. Peter DeBoer is above that number (the Predators never contacted San Jose for permission). Hynes, who had the same term in New Jersey as Laviolette had in Nashville, was just under $2 million. They have to pay all of Laviolette’s cash until he is hired elsewhere, and a chunk of Hynes’.

9. Hynes goes from one of the NHL’s youngest teams to its oldest. The Predators’ average age (28.7 at the start of the season) is two years above New Jersey’s. With a veteran group, I’m curious to see if he relaxes some of the rules he had for the Devils. Some of it relates to attire, some of it has to do with timelines.

10. As is to be expected, Poile was grumpy in his media availability. “This is the hardest year I’ve ever had because we’ve been totally unable to meet expectations on ice for our team and for our fans,” he said. “It’s our players. They have to make up their mind to play the way they can.”
The GM said last week he has to weigh the possibility of being a seller at the trade deadline, but that’s not what the Predators really want. We know Kyle Turris has been shopped. I’ve heard Craig Smith’s name, too, and you have to assume he’s tested the market on another UFA-to-be, Mikael Granlund. One name that would get traction is Nick Bonino, under contract for another season at $4.1 million. But it’s hard to see Nashville doing that while still contending to win.

11. Credit to Jeff Marek and Sportsnet Stats for this one, but only one team in the last two seasons has fired a coach when their goaltenders have a save percentage above .900. That’s Anaheim, at .906 last season. Laviolette’s Predators were at .889. Lowest was Dave Hakstol’s Flyers, .874. (Calgary and Dallas are not included.)

31 Thoughts: How recent Stanley Cup champions approached trade deadline - Sportsnet.ca

 

[Gh24]

I don't care if Ingram has earned it or not, our starters have definitely earned a game or two aside.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

Big section on the Preds in today's 31 thoughts:
11. Credit to Jeff Marek and Sportsnet Stats for this one, but only one team in the last two seasons has fired a coach when their goaltenders have a save percentage above .900. That’s Anaheim, at .906 last season. Laviolette’s Predators were at .889. Lowest was Dave Hakstol’s Flyers, .874. (Calgary and Dallas are not included.)

31 Thoughts: How recent Stanley Cup champions approached trade deadline - Sportsnet.ca

This stat is the reason Laviolette would have been wise to...

I don't care if Ingram has earned it or not, our starters have definitely earned a game or two aside.

...do this.

 

[zhok]

Poile straight up said it wasn't Lavi's fault; it was the players' fault.

I don't mind Poile calling out the players to a degree, but to put 100% of the blame on the players can't go over well in the locker room.

The reality is our coaches have to be better, our players have to be better, and our GM has to be better.

Even-though he started the press conference saying it was his decision while dancing around his statement a week ago, I would've liked to hear the answer to the question of 'what role did ownership play in the decision?' Poile sounded like he really did not want to fire Lavi.

 

[Wayne Primeau]

What would the Preds be seeking for Smith? Would retention be on the table?

 

[hockey diva]

Picks for Smith. He’s going UFA after this season.

I think this season is a goner. We won’t make the playoffs. Let Hynes see who is willing to commit to playing smart and hard. Sell off guys who won’t buy in.

I’d like ownership to have talks with Poile about becoming an advisor and hire a new GM from outside the franchise/USA. Hockey. Restock the pipeline some more.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

What would the Preds be seeking for Smith? Would retention be on the table?

It's too early. Our hope is that we climb back into the playoffs, in which case Smith is not available. But we have to maintain something like a 24-13-3 clip the rest of the way. We should know before the deadline if Hynes has the magic answer to what ails.

If we don't seem likely to make it, I think a 2nd rounder should suffice for Smith. But there should be multiple bidders, so it might take a minor sweetener to win the bidding war. And if we're folding up shop, there's certainly no harm in retaining to get the best possible return... although it feels to me like the Preds might be a little cautious with $$$ given the prospect of no playoff gates and some of the big signing bonuses they have to pay out in the off-season. From a fantasy-GM perspective, retaining might seem like a no-brainer. There won't be a lot of real cash left to pay out be that time, though. Say Smith is still owed $1M at the time. I'd like to think retaining $500k of that shouldn't be a deal-breaker. But who knows.

 

[Predsanddead24]

It's too early. Our hope is that we climb back into the playoffs, in which case Smith is not available. But we have to maintain something like a 24-13-3 clip the rest of the way. We should know before the deadline if Hynes has the magic answer to what ails.

If we don't seem likely to make it, I think a 2nd rounder should suffice for Smith. But there should be multiple bidders, so it might take a minor sweetener to win the bidding war. And if we're folding up shop, there's certainly no harm in retaining to get the best possible return... although it feels to me like the Preds might be a little cautious with $$$ given the prospect of no playoff gates and some of the big signing bonuses they have to pay out in the off-season. From a fantasy-GM perspective, retaining might seem like a no-brainer. There won't be a lot of real cash left to pay out be that time, though. Say Smith is still owed $1M at the time. I'd like to think retaining $500k of that shouldn't be a deal-breaker. But who knows.

I may be wrong and I can't find any proof of it but I believe I heard it when moving Turris was still the hot topic that we've never retained salary in a trade ever. We've done a lot of franchise firsts recently so its not indicative we won't do it just that it's the first time we've done it.

For me personally the asking price for Smith is dependent on if we have any hope of re-signing him or not at a reasonable rate as trading him would most likely mean that he's gone for good. I have no concept of what Smith's contract ask may be and maybe Poile doesn't either, but if the potential is there to re-sign him at a reasonable deal I'd want more value out of it personally. Say a 2nd and a 4th or a 1st (especially from a team like Boston who has very high odds of winning the Cup). I'm probably biased because I'm a bigger Smith fan than many here though.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I may be wrong and I can't find any proof of it but I believe I heard it when moving Turris was still the hot topic that we've never retained salary in a trade ever. We've done a lot of franchise firsts recently so its not indicative we won't do it just that it's the first time we've done it.

For me personally the asking price for Smith is dependent on if we have any hope of re-signing him or not at a reasonable rate as trading him would most likely mean that he's gone for good. I have no concept of what Smith's contract ask may be and maybe Poile doesn't either, but if the potential is there to re-sign him at a reasonable deal I'd want more value out of it personally. Say a 2nd and a 4th or a 1st (especially from a team like Boston who has very high odds of winning the Cup). I'm probably biased because I'm a bigger Smith fan than many here though.

That's true. In some previous reply somewhere I also caveated my asking price with the need to sound out Smith on a potential re-signing too. Unless something changes drastically, to me he has flat out won any battle with Granlund over who we might choose to retain between them. And I don't think the external UFA options are super-hot for finding new wingers on the UFA market. We should have the cap space to retain Smith. I'd certainly make it a prerequisite to find out if he'd take a team-friendly-ish extension here before trading him.

4x$4M is my thinking. It's a little short on term and $$$ relative to what I think he might be able to land on the open market, though. But I'm also not keen on locking him in for any longer term on bigger money. He has played well and been a very reliable middle-6 player for us. But after many long years we are finally nearing a contract saturation point. And maybe it's no big coincidence that Smith has been one of our best performers - like Grimaldi, even Bonino - they are still playing for their next contracts, unlike some of the others.

 

[drwpreds]

Mind blowing stat- the Preds are a +20 goal differential at 5 on 5 play for the season. That is the 3rd best in the league behind only Colorado and Toronto.

When you are near the top of the league in 5 on 5 play, there is no way in the world you should be on the outside of the playoffs looking in. But we are -19 in all other situations.

SPECIAL TEAMS. Even with all the problems we have, if had just a decent PP/PK we would be sitting pretty.

 

[LeighDx59]

Are we really flipping out that bad after the lost to Boston? Yeah it was a rough loss, but it was legit Hynes' first game as coach, after being announced hours perviously. Not practice, no nothing. Results are gonna take a few games to see, once the team has a few practices under their belt under the new coach you should see things change more, hopefully for the positive.

I am however really hoping it doesnt take long for the team to start playing whatever Hynes' system is going to be. We have Chicago and Winnipeg coming up, on paper we should win. Just start Saros until moral gets better, having Rinne sit a few should hopefully light a fire under his ass.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Mind blowing stat- the Preds are a +20 goal differential at 5 on 5 play for the season. That is the 3rd best in the league behind only Colorado and Toronto.

When you are near the top of the league in 5 on 5 play, there is no way in the world you should be on the outside of the playoffs looking in. But we are -19 in all other situations.

SPECIAL TEAMS. Even with all the problems we have, if had just a decent PP/PK we would be sitting pretty.

Another interesting thing that pops out if you look at the +/- data is that the Grimaldi-Bonino-Smith line is itself a +14 at 5v5 this season. All other situations we are a -13.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Are we really flipping out that bad after the lost to Boston? Yeah it was a rough loss, but it was legit Hynes' first game as coach, after being announced hours perviously. Not practice, no nothing. Results are gonna take a few games to see, once the team has a few practices under their belt under the new coach you should see things change more, hopefully for the positive.

I am however really hoping it doesnt take long for the team to start playing whatever Hynes' system is going to be. We have Chicago and Winnipeg coming up, on paper we should win. Just start Saros until moral gets better, having Rinne sit a few should hopefully light a fire under his ass.

We're really flipping out that bad over everything right now. Some people probably need to take a break from the boards for a few days/weeks for their sanity's sake, it's just sports and not healthy.

 

[Armourboy]

Eh I think some are reading too much into things on the whole freaking out thing. People are voicing other things now that the coaching change is done. It would be different if people were blaming Hynes for last nights game but I haven't really seen that.

Most of what I've seen is pretty accurate and not without base.

 

[Byrddog]

It's too early. Our hope is that we climb back into the playoffs, in which case Smith is not available. But we have to maintain something like a 24-13-3 clip the rest of the way. We should know before the deadline if Hynes has the magic answer to what ails.

If we don't seem likely to make it, I think a 2nd rounder should suffice for Smith. But there should be multiple bidders, so it might take a minor sweetener to win the bidding war. And if we're folding up shop, there's certainly no harm in retaining to get the best possible return... although it feels to me like the Preds might be a little cautious with $$$ given the prospect of no playoff gates and some of the big signing bonuses they have to pay out in the off-season. From a fantasy-GM perspective, retaining might seem like a no-brainer. There won't be a lot of real cash left to pay out be that time, though. Say Smith is still owed $1M at the time. I'd like to think retaining $500k of that shouldn't be a deal-breaker. But who knows.

Do you really think that 24-13-3 is remotely attainable in the current situation? Fabbro day to day Ellis who knows when he will return and Sissions pretty much the same compound that with the total meltdown of goaltending the team has experienced. Just the games left in Jan include @ Winnipeg @ Chicago @ Edmonton @ Washington with Toronto and Buffalo at home and a cake game at NJ. It is not hard to imagine this stretch to be 2-5. This will require the team to be 22-8-3 the rest of the way if Ellis gets back in three weeks and the team adjusts to Hynes in that time as well and the goaltending returns to .915 and less than 2.75. For more than a calendar year this team has been fragile. The additions and subtractions in the summer have proven to be an over all minus as well. The team will start to play better at some point I just can not see it under the current limitations until Feb and perhaps until some players are moved. The pipeline is weak there are no true blue chip players in the system or they would be on the team right now.

Other than the term of the Duchene contract I was all for him coming to the team. He is a better center than Johansen and maybe Hynes will take advantage of that. The fact is both Duchene and Johansen have not lived up to their contracts and this has been reported by the talking heads on the Tv networks on Sirus network and any number of print articles. Forsberg for some reason has taken a step back as well. Most of the forwards are now bottom 6ers and play that way which is why Duchene, Forsberg, Johansen and Arviddson must wake up. The defense has taken a hit while Josi is lights out the rest are having struggles (Ekholm) (Fabbro) or injured Ellis the 3rd pair would be better off sitting in the pressbox. I can not see the goaltending turning around at this point Pekka needs to retire 1 game in 4 he can be the old Pekka it will be a crime to watch him go down like Louongo and Brodure did. Saro's is a lost cause it was a mistake to have him sitting behind Pekka so long Poile has essentially ruined the guy by doing this I said that long ago when he should have been getting work in the AHL as a 22 and 23 year old instead of a handful of games picked by coaches in the NHL.

I have always been critical of players moreso than coaching at this level which got me labeled as a pessimist. One thing remains true even the year that the team squeaked into the playoffs and Rinne got hot as any tender could be and took them to the finals. Poile has always built this team to fight to get in to the playoffs not to make a run at the cup. A round or two in the playoffs has always provided the ownership with money to show a profit while leaving the fans short of where we want them. Poile has been more of a problem than Trotz or Lavi. But the hiring of Hynes will prove to be another poor decision the guy is just not a very good coach. My expectations have never been as low as they are right now for this franchise.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Do you really think that 24-13-3 is remotely attainable in the current situation?

It's a clean slate. Heading into the season, I thought playing at a 24-13-3 clip should be perfectly normal for this team. Now? It shouldn't be completely impossible, anyway.

It won't take long for things to settle out, however. If we get to the point that we need a 20-7-2 clip, say, we'll know it's truly over.

 

[GoldOnGold]

The back to back losses against Pittsburgh followed by the Winter Classic pretty much killed my last hope that we would make the playoffs. It's still not impossible, but it would require the kind of play that we have not displayed since October.

That epic chokejob against Calgary still haunts me.

 

[LeighDx59]

Eh I think some are reading too much into things on the whole freaking out thing. People are voicing other things now that the coaching change is done. It would be different if people were blaming Hynes for last nights game but I haven't really seen that.

Most of what I've seen is pretty accurate and not without base.

That's fair, there is alot to fix with the team but it is managable. I expect it to be a few games before things really start turning around, if Hynes' system starts to work at least. Itll help when we get Ellis back which is hopefully soon.

 

[Armourboy]

That's fair, there is alot to fix with the team but it is managable. I expect it to be a few games before things really start turning around, if Hynes' system starts to work at least. Itll help when we get Ellis back which is hopefully soon.

Not many teams are gonna play that well with 2 of their top 4 D out.

 

[Roman Yoshi]

I don't think people are worried about coaching right now.

I think people are worried (and rightfully so) about the resolve of the team. They ate dog shit Tuesday night. Even after a serious "wake-up call" they came out flat and played 1/3 of a game.

I'm not sure Hynes is the answer, but I'm willing to give him a chance. I'm going to have less patience with certain players because of previous performance.

Do I think we will make the playoffs? Absolutely not. If it were me, I'd sell at the All-Star break and hope for a high pick in the draft and stock the cupboard with some good prospects in an extremely good draft. Let Hynes not worry about wins this season but instead focus on player development and evaluating who is bought into the system. Then, if change is necessary, move players out over the summer that don't fit the bill.

 

[Byrddog]

I don't think people are worried about coaching right now.

I think people are worried (and rightfully so) about the resolve of the team. They ate dog **** Tuesday night. Even after a serious "wake-up call" they came out flat and played 1/3 of a game.

I'm not sure Hynes is the answer, but I'm willing to give him a chance. I'm going to have less patience with certain players because of previous performance.

Do I think we will make the playoffs? Absolutely not. If it were me, I'd sell at the All-Star break and hope for a high pick in the draft and stock the cupboard with some good prospects in an extremely good draft. Let Hynes not worry about wins this season but instead focus on player development and evaluating who is bought into the system. Then, if change is necessary, move players out over the summer that don't fit the bill.

I think your completely right people wanted a coaching change for the sake of change when there was not a coach available that was an improvement. The when Poile makes the change it sinks in that they now have a coach that has won nothing at the NHL level.

A team that has not had more than two wins in a row since Oct. The team will be adjusting to a new coach and system that is closer to Trotz system than Lavi's. A shortage of two way forwards and currently down two of the top four defensemen and a third pair that has completely fallen off a cliff. When healthy I can see the PK and the 5x5 D improving will this be enough for Pekka to get his grove back????? There are too many issues to think that Hynes (not a top coach) can just come in and poof everything turns around. Tonight the Preds can be last in the central...…. When did that happen last???? Im not even gonna look it up but I imagine it would have been before the Cap restrictions were put on the league.

Lavi did not put this team in its current situation alone and you are right that the players on the ice MUST be held accountable. You will not be popular for this believe me I know this to be true. When your frustration comes to a point you have to look elsewhere to enjoy the game I know this to be true as well. Just blindly being optimistic like some are without watching what other team do is short sighted. I have noticed however there a number of people on HF that have improved in this area. It does not make one any less of a fan to have high expectations. It also does not make you less of a fan to not like a roster player. I still dispose Craig Smith and on the Tampa team I abhor Shattenkirk on Buffalo I dispise Okoposo (Okoimposter) and have really got to dislike "Happy you had me guys".

The Preds are so overdue a total rebuild. All stringing it out has brought is a few rounds in the playoffs to keep the team in the black for the owners but the inability to draft players that can make a difference. The pipeline is bare no generational talent on the team now that Pekka has aged and his window is closed. Josi is close but he is now 29 and his window will start to close in three years.

For some time I was concerned about Webers recapture but now it is not much of a concern because there are going to be enough ELC's on the team in a couple years to absorb the penalty. And for those still believing it will not happen, the Panthers are paying recapture now on Lou, Devils Kolvachuck, Kings Richards, Canucks Louongo.

Now will Poile do the right thing or continue to patch and bandaid to the point of just making the playoffs or close to that line while not getting top picks. History tells us that's what he is going to do.

 

[hockey diva]

While I see your points Byrd, the draft is still a crapshoot. Top end talent might be found in the top 5 but then again it might bust or get seriously hurt, see Patrick and Nico. And we have rarely been bad enough to get a top 5 pick. I wonder how different things would be if we had gotten Barkov instead of Jones for example. (Tho I know poile wanted Jones.) All of TB's talent got them swept in the first round last time. Who on the blues is a generational talent? McDavid alone has not gotten the Oilers past the first round. Talent alone will not win you a Cup.

I agree we need a new GM. Poile is done. a fresh voice with some improved scouting on the forward side would be welcome.

I am willing to give Hynes a chance. As long as it isn't for 5 years. He hasn't won at the NHL level but neither did Trotz or several coaches. He was a very successful AHL coach. Who would you have hired instead?

You have to balance rebuilding with putting butts in the seats. Very few markets can tolerate a full tear down/rebuild. Hardcore fans like us can tolerate losing with the long view. The corporate side/casual fan cannot. We will see a drop in renewals due to the losing as it is. So, what do you propose we do? Ownership wants to at least break even. You don't become successful in business by running a deficit.

Firing Lavy should have happened in the summer imho but it didn't. Poile had one last string he could pull to wake the team up firing the coaches.

We will miss the playoffs. IF the team at least plays hard and shows signs of life, I am hopeful going forward.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

Here's an observation:
Players play and coaches coach.

Stop blaming the players for there being zero game plan from the coaches except to work harder. I said it yesterday and I will repeat myself today; doing more just for the sake of doing more is not going to get you more results. We know by looking at the PP over the last 2 seasons that the staff couldn't "fix" anything yet you expect the same players, many of whom haven't know an NHL coach other than Laviolette and still more that have been under his tutelage for 4 or 5 years, to just magically fix the ills of this team by doing "more"?

Is that how you teach people? When someone can't figure out what they're doing wrong and it's known the way they are trying to do something is wrong, just send them back out there with no new information, watch them fail and commence to yelling at them?

Now, I know coaching changes have mixed results and maybe there truly is a problem with the make up of the team and maybe they aren't "trying" hard enough, all of that remains to be seen. But, if you're going to base your opinion off of Tuesdays game you may need to reevaluate your expectations and attitude.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Here's an observation:
Players play and coaches coach.

Stop blaming the players for there being zero game plan from the coaches except to work harder. I said it yesterday and I will repeat myself today; doing more just for the sake of doing more is not going to get you more results. We know by looking at the PP over the last 2 seasons that the staff couldn't "fix" anything yet you expect the same players, many of whom haven't know an NHL coach other than Laviolette and still more that have been under his tutelage for 4 or 5 years, to just magically fix the ills of this team by doing "more"?

Is that how you teach people? When someone can't figure out what they're doing wrong and it's known the way they are trying to do something is wrong, just send them back out there with no new information, watch them fail and commence to yelling at them?

Now, I know coaching changes have mixed results and maybe there truly is a problem with the make up of the team and maybe they aren't "trying" hard enough, all of that remains to be seen. But, if you're going to base your opinion off of Tuesdays game you may need to reevaluate your expectations and attitude.

This was a discussion in the Hynes thread about this but look no further than the fact that the media members were praising him for stopping drills when players screwed up and having white boards on the ice and teaching. If that truly hasn't been happening before than the coaching issues were even worse than I thought.