Observations, Part X

[David Singleton]

looking at team +/- stats, we have some head scratching contrasts.

overall it's puzzling to see the divergence between players. for example you have;

...Neal with his 28 goals is a +24, while Forsberg with his 30 goals is a -2.
...our best defense pairing Weber a -6, Josi a -2, While Ellis is a +12 and Eckholm is a +14.
...we're a +15 team, yet we have a high number of regular players (8) that are -'s overall.

normally you see huge swings in +/- in home and away numbers as matchups are chosen, and we certainly do, a few examples;
...Eckholm +17 at home, -3 on road
...Ribeiro +13 h, -6 r
...Smith +11 h, -7 r
...Jarnkrok +8 h, -5 r
...Wilson +6 h, -4 r
...Forsberg +10 h, -12 r
but then you get Neal is a +15 home, + 9 road, an Ellis a +9 and +3

One of the most head scratching examples of home versus road is our top d pair. Most times you see your top d pair matched against tougher competition at home when we are more able to choose to them going against the best offensive players, but then on the road when other teams get more choices they spend more time against lower level forwards. So it's not highly unusual to see your top defensive pair have higher +'s on the road than your other d-men.

(for an example of this gaustad is a -2 home when we roll him more against better players, gag, but a +2 on the road)
But our d-man numbers sort of contradict that old thought;
...Weber a +9 at home, but a -15 on the road
...Josi a +7 at home, but a -9 on the road.

It all feels sort of off, considering our home versus road record is very close and as well as it feels we've played on the road for a long time now. (44 points at home versus 43 on the road). Don't have any massive observations about all this, but I do find some of these numbers strange.

I think the numbers being that odd just proves one thing, we've had a very odd season. It feels like it has been worse than it has, but if we had even been decent in OT we would be fighting for the top of the division just like last season.

It's interesting to see the numbers and I wonder how many of them are wonky due to the two halves of the season we've basically had. About the only one you can say that has been consistent all season of the forwards is Neal, and that is probably why his numbers look better than everyone else. I would be interested to know how many of Rinne's " soft goals" and bad stretch tore up Weber and Josi's +/-

I would be very curious to know where the minuses for those 3-on-3 OT losses fell. Forsberg and Josi would be a recipient for more than a few of those I would expect. Perhaps even Weber.

 

[Roman Yoshi]

I would be very curious to know where the minuses for those 3-on-3 OT losses fell. Forsberg and Josi would be a recipient for more than a few of those I would expect. Perhaps even Weber.

Was thinking the same thing actually.

This may sound crazy, but I wanna see Arvidsson in 3v3 in any OT games we have left this year... which is hopefully none

 

[Pred303]

I would be very curious to know where the minuses for those 3-on-3 OT losses fell. Forsberg and Josi would be a recipient for more than a few of those I would expect. Perhaps even Weber.

not that difficult to do.

on ice for our 12 OT 3 on 3 losses;

@CGY.. 6,15,63
NJD..... 6,28,59
LAK..... 4,9,14
DAL..... 9,18,59
@TBL... 4,9,14
@WPG.. 4,9,14
@STL.... 4,12,33
CGY..... 6,59,63
@DET.. 3,9,14
@PHI... 6,19,59
@LAK... 6,12,33
PIT...... 9,12,59

for our lone win;
@CAR... 4,9,14

so net net, total minuses in 3 on 3;

Jones -1,
Ellis -4,+1
Weber -5
Forsberg -6,+1
Fisher -3
Eckholm -4,+1
Smith -1
Neal -1
Jarnkrok -1
Gaustad -1
Wilson -2
Josi -5
Ribeiro -2

doesn't make any big difference between any home/road numbers since we've lost 5 at home and 7 OT on road, for example Weber is a -2 at home and a -3 on road in OT losses, while Forsberg is a -2 and -4. Also doesn't really explain large differences in total +/- for Webs/Josi versus Ellis/Eckholm as Ellis/Eckholm have been on for 4 allowed in OT and Josi and Weber 5 each.

 

[Scoresberg]

Someone said when Fiala joined this team earlier this season that he was the spark that lit up his team in Sweden and predicted this thing to happen for us, too.

Well, after Fiala played his 1st game here this season against WPG, we're 18-6-5.

 

[drwpreds]

Regarding our home vs. road play, I did some analysis and found some interesting results for those interested in this kind of stuff.

Looking at our home and away stats, it struck me that even though our home and road records are pretty similar, stat-wise we have been a much, much better team at home, especially offensively. I am sure that is not all that unusual (teams usually play better at home)- but our offensive stats show a pretty dramatic difference home and away.

Home:
+25 goal differential
Average 3.06 goals per game
Allow 2.34 goals per game

Road:
-12 goal differential
Average 2.42 goals per game
Allow 2.74 goals per game

But as bad as those road numbers are, they have dramatically improved in the past couple of months. Just shows how horrible we were on the road the first half of the season:

First 22 road games:
7-11-4 record
-26 goal differential
Average 2.00 goals per game
Allowed 3.18 goals per game

Last 16 road games:
11-2-3 record
+14 goal differential
Average 3.00 goals per game
Allow 2.12 goals per game.

Another interesting stat- we have scored 4 or more goals 14 times at home and only 7 on the road. (And we currently have scored 4+ goals in 5 straight home games).

Bottom line is we have been a very good offensive team all season long at home, and are now doing the same on the road. We are now rolling offensively regardless of home or away:

First 51 games:
Averaged 2.49 goals per game

Last 22 games:
Averaging 3.27 goals per game (that would be enough to lead the league over a full season).

 

[glenngineer]

Something to remember about LA in the playoffs now, the don't have a clutch fellow by the name of Justin Williams. The guy is a stud in the playoffs and as clutch as they come. Gaborik is also on the shelf and while they are still a deep experienced team, they are not as deep as they once were. Mike Richards is also vacant from their Cup runs. That's an entire line of talent gone from their roster. They were able to roll 4 lines on any given night and that depth is no more. While they are still a massive threat, let's not overdo it either.

 

[Pred303]

great numbers drw, thanks for the work

 

[drwpreds]

Something to remember about LA in the playoffs now, the don't have a clutch fellow by the name of Justin Williams. The guy is a stud in the playoffs and as clutch as they come. Gaborik is also on the shelf and while they are still a deep experienced team, they are not as deep as they once were. Mike Richards is also vacant from their Cup runs. That's an entire line of talent gone from their roster. They were able to roll 4 lines on any given night and that depth is no more. While they are still a massive threat, let's not overdo it either.

Which is exactly why I posted earlier that I think many are going a little overboard with the LA love. They are still a very good team and certainly capable of making a run. But I don’t think they are the same team as their Cup winning teams. Compare their roster to ours- I think we stack up pretty well with them.

The one thing they have that we (and many other teams) don’t is they obviously know how to win in the playoffs. And admittedly, that is a huge factor.

 

[token grinder]

Something to remember about LA in the playoffs now, the don't have a clutch fellow by the name of Justin Williams. The guy is a stud in the playoffs and as clutch as they come. Gaborik is also on the shelf and while they are still a deep experienced team, they are not as deep as they once were. Mike Richards is also vacant from their Cup runs. That's an entire line of talent gone from their roster. They were able to roll 4 lines on any given night and that depth is no more. While they are still a massive threat, let's not overdo it either.

and now no Voynov from their last playoff team either.

But I disagree about their depth. Lecavlier and Versteeg are both winners/

 

[PredsV82]

Someone said when Fiala joined this team earlier this season that he was the spark that lit up his team in Sweden and predicted this thing to happen for us, too.

Well, after Fiala played his 1st game here this season against WPG, we're 18-6-5.

Im still going with it being my daughter's birth. We are 20-7-5 since she came along. IMO she did as much as Fiala did in his time here...

 

[glenngineer]

and now no Voynov from their last playoff team either.

But I disagree about their depth. Lecavlier and Versteeg are both winners/

Forgot about Versteeg. Where was he?

 

[Dave is a killer]

 

[nine_inch_fang]

Yeah?

 

[token grinder]

Forgot about Versteeg. Where was he?

Carolina, after Chicago somehow convinced them to take him and Nordstrom and alleviate their cap woes.

 

[glenngineer]

Carolina, after Chicago somehow convinced them to take him and Nordstrom and alleviate their cap woes.

I meant last night and against us, is he hurt?

 

[token grinder]

I meant last night and against us, is he hurt?

not that I know of. I thought I saw him though. In fairness, the effort Monday made many Kings invisible.

 

[hockey diva]

Versteeg was a scratch, I think he was hurt.

 

[nomorekids]

Versteeg was a scratch, I think he was hurt.

Yes. Lower body injury, not expected to miss much time.