Nylander's Holdout is About a lot More Than Willy and the Leafs

[Blowfish]

Is it possible that a KHL offer is on table?

Most likely if nothing happens after Dec 1 Nylander will make up loss earnings in some other league.

 

[Blowfish]

What is concerning are the player contracts behind Nylander...Marner/Matthews are probably not liking the way Leaf management are handling Nylander. Going to get ugly in Toronto.

 

[Craig Button]

I think Nylander's situation is unique because it has become quite obvious that he doesn't want to play 4th fiddle to Matthews, Marner, and Tavares. The Leafs will likely trade him to upgrade their D and Nylander's new team will give him the money and recognition he deserves.

My 2 cents.

Which is what exactly?

What would you like an NHL team to do to show the recognition he deserves?

 

[TheMule93]

What is concerning are the player contracts behind Nylander...Marner/Matthews are probably not liking the way Leaf management are handling Nylander. Going to get ugly in Toronto.

I disagree. I think the only reason Nylander is without a contract is BECAUSE they are prioritizing Marner and Matthews (a decision I agree with). They'll get paid what they're worth for sure.

 

[Spazkat]

Leafs plan for affording Tavares included lowballing Nylander. Obviously Nylander is not going to be ok with that. It's not a holdout, it's closer to a lockout. Trade him to a team that can pay him what he deserves and take some business classes at a night school so you are more prepared for the next time.

I'm guessing this is a big part of the problem. You have to think he assumed everyone else would be willing to follow the Yzerman model where they convinced everyone else to sign for below market value to keep the band together or whatever. Unfortunately that only works when you have buy in from everyone, and it doesnt seem like thats the case here.

Everyone is throwing around the Pasta and Ehlers deals, when in truth, not only were those signed in prior years, they were generally considered to be relatively team friendly contracts at the time.

My personal guess is that the team is offering an 6-8 year ~6-6.5 deal and the Nylander camp is asking for closer to 3/4 of what Matthews is expected to get which puts him in the 8.2 range for that term. I don't guess Dubas has much interest in a 1 or 2 year "show me" deal, since that almost guarantees the long term signing that comes later will carry a much higher AAV but I could see Nylander viewing that as an option.

 

[Rhaegar Targaryen]

Scoring 60 points twice at Nylander’s age is super impressive. While everyone lives in a fantasy world where their star players will sign for half the pride they’re worth to win a Cup, Nylander has all the ritht in the world to want his big payday.

 

[glucker]

A lot of people think that this hold out is hurting Nylander’s reputation in the league... but I think his fellow players love it. They’re all part of a union, and him getting more helps them argue they can get more too.

So in that sense, he’s right to hold out.


On the other side of the coin for a productive negotiation, there needs to be some overlap in both parties reservation prices. From the sounds of things, Leafs aren’t really looking at anything more than 6.75 long term, with that number dropping as years are removed. Nylander’s agent anchored his side at 8... and it sounds like they want a number that starts with 7... meaning even if they take a number starting with a 6, it’d have to be a high 6.

Both sides agree to wanting a long term deal signed, but there’s very little room to budge on the dollars, as both sides are negotiating at the extremes of their comfort zone.

Nylander has some non-monetary things that are important to him as well. He doesn’t want to be traded, and (maybe) thinks he should be at C instead of wing.

The problem with the first point is that the CBA doesn’t allow the Leafs to give him an NTC on this contract. So, while they can make that concession and say “we promise we won’t trade you”... it doesn’t really move the needle that much because there’s no legal option for that to be guaranteed. Basically the only way he could ensure himself not being traded is with with a more expensive contract that would make him harder to move.

The C point isn’t something the Leafs can offer unless they’re willing to trade a C to make room for him.... but that’s a huge concession for them to make for a guy who is unproven at the position. Still, there are rumours of Kadri being in some trade talks(maybe).


So thats where the stalemate is- a very narrow
(Or possibly nonexistent) space to negotiate within, without many pieces for either side to play with to make the other budge.

When you’ve got such a narrow window because the two sides are negotiating based on a different set of facts. Toronto is looking at comparable RFAs who signed in the 6 range, and Nylander’s side is looking at Draisaitl.

It’s generally accepted that Nylander is more in the ballpark of the Ehlerses/Pastrnaks/Larkins of the NHL, and that Drai is overpriced... so it’s safe to say then that Nylander’s side is in the wrong here.

Now, there’s also rumours of a bridge deal being on the table, which is what the latest flurry of meetings is about. A bridge deal isn’t the ideal of the Leafs, but it’s a great alternative. Nylander is cheaper, so it makes it easier for them to afford Matthews and Marner long-term, and as long as they keep it to 4 years or less, Nylander is still an RFA when it expires. If they do need to move him in the near future, a lower-cost, short term contract is easier to find suitors for, so he has more value in that regard as well.

For Nylander, a bridge deal represents a loss on all fronts. Less $ per year, less security, more likely to be traded.

The benefit for him is potential future earnings... but that is definitely not guaranteed. A 29 year old UFA is more valuable than a 33 year old one... so if he goes the bridge route he needs to be sure he hits a home run on his next contract. The next lockout might make that difficult.

Seems to me his agent overplayed his hand.

 

[ThePhoenixx]

I'm wondering if the agent plans to take this to court.

Negotiating in bad faith? Shannys' comments suggest as much.

 

[easton117]

Nylander’s situation isn’t unique to just hockey anymore. Young players getting big paydays while veterans who have actually done something in their respective leagues are getting squeezed.

Happened this past offseason in the MLBwhere 30 year olds couldn’t get work.The NFL currently has their best running back (and bonifide jet ski strip club enthusiast) watching games from home every Sunday.

It’s a fine line to walk for teams. They pump kids up as the future of their team. Market the hell out of them. Then rely on their veterans come crunch time. That has to irritate the older guys a bit.

In the NHL anyway, it seems like teams are following the Chicago model more. Identify 4 or 5 players you can’t live without and pay them accordingly. The rest? Don’t bother learning their names or faces because they won’t be around long term.

I’m sure Nylander and his agent have done the math. He’s not one of those guys in Toronto. It’s not a slight, he’s a good player. Teams only have so much money to work with though.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Why would Dubas do that? That makes absolutely no sense.

win win

 

[A1LeafNation]

No they're not. Not at all. Any cap savings would be this year and they have 13 million in cap space this year. Their cap crunch is next year and it wouldn't make one penny of a difference for next year.

Next year would be a lower cap hit for Nylander.

 

[joe dirte]

Next year would be a lower cap hit for Nylander.

How so?

 

[A1LeafNation]

How so?

See cap friendly example.

 

[Voight]

Since when does scoring 60 points mean you deserve 8 million per year?

 

[Dustin]

See cap friendly example.

I've seen the examples of how much would be saved. It looked to me like the most money saved would be a 5 year deal at $7.5 which would save the Leafs $475,000. And his new cap hit would be $7.

You are still paying him a $7 cap hit which isn't great.

If the Leafs want him at $6.5 they still have to sign him to a $6.5 contract as the savings after a 5 years contact are barely $200,000.

 

[mouser]

Wrong, Leafs can afford to pay him more and more by the day because his 2+ year cap hit will be a number they can work with.

Suggestion: Look at cap friendly.

I have looked at cap friendly, I've also thoroughly read the relevant CBA section. I'm trying to explain to you how you are misunderstanding what cap friendly is saying.

In the cap friendly examples the reason Nylander's year 2+ cap hit goes down is because he gets paid less and less of his year 1 salary the longer he waits until signing. Which is why some of the hypothetical contract ideas people have posted with massive year 1 salaries are really missing the mark--yes, jacking up the year 1 salary will reduce the year 2+ cap hit because Nylander gets paid even less of the contract after missing time in year 1.

Year 2+ cap hit is extremely simple to calculate. Add up how much money Nylander actually gets paid in the contract. Then divide by the # of years in the contract. That's what the CF formula is doing.

 

[mouser]

Doesn’t it make it so that the closer to dec 1st this is signed, his first year cap hit becomes significantly higher than his aav, which makes his 2+ cap hit a bit lower than his aav?

I don’t remember the specifics, but this is talked about a lot on the leafs forum, and I think you’re misinformed.

"Doesn’t it make it so that the closer to dec 1st this is signed, his first year cap hit becomes significantly higher than his aav,"

This is correct.

Year 1 cap hit in indeed higher when signing late. The reason for this is to remove any possible incentive for a team to delay signing an RFA to create cap space in year 1. The formula makes the effective year 1 cap hit that reaches the bottom line the same regardless of whether the player signed before the season or two months into the season.


"which makes his 2+ cap hit a bit lower than his aav?"

This is incorrect.

Year 2 cap hit is not lower because year 1 was higher. Year 2 cap hit is based entirely on the amount of money the player truly receives over the entire term of the contract. A player who signs a $6m x 6 year contract before the season is going to be paid $36m. A player who signs a $6m x 6 year contract two months into the season is going to be paid approximately $34m because they miss out on nearly 1/3rd of the year 1 salary. It's that lost salary that lowers year 2+ cap hits.

Any creative solutions like structuring a contract with year 1 signing bonuses simply increases the total real money the player gets paid and thus the year 2+ cap hits.

 

[A1LeafNation]

I have looked at cap friendly, I've also thoroughly read the relevant CBA section. I'm trying to explain to you how you are misunderstanding what cap friendly is saying.

In the cap friendly examples the reason Nylander's year 2+ cap hit goes down is because he gets paid less and less of his year 1 salary the longer he waits until signing. Which is why some of the hypothetical contract ideas people have posted with massive year 1 salaries are really missing the mark--yes, jacking up the year 1 salary will reduce the year 2+ cap hit because Nylander gets paid even less of the contract after missing time in year 1.

Year 2+ cap hit is extremely simple to calculate. Add up how much money Nylander actually gets paid in the contract. Then divide by the # of years in the contract. That's what the CF formula is doing.

I'm not I think you are misunderstanding what I am saying.

 

[mouser]

I'm not I think you are misunderstanding what I am saying.

If it'll help, post an example Nylander contract and we can break it down together.

 

[A1LeafNation]

If it'll help, post an example Nylander contract and we can break it down together.

See cap friendly. There’s literally thousands of posts and dozens of threads already explaining this since summer. Lol

How many times does it have to be explained in hfboards.

 

[mouser]

See cap friendly. There’s literally thousands of posts and dozens of threads already explaining this since summer. Lol

How many times does it have to be explained in hfboards.

Apparently too many since you still continue to misunderstand how it works, despite my best efforts.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Apparently too many since you still continue to misunderstand how it works, despite my best efforts.

I’m explaining it works how cap friendly has outlined it lol.

 

[Dustin]

Apparently too many since you still continue to misunderstand how it works, despite my best efforts.

This is the document I've seen before.

Edit* if you click on the link it will take you to the document.

 

[Iapyi]

While I fully appreciate and understand what the OP is saying it just reenforces the idiocy of unions.

In this case they are pretending that the great "brother" is putting his union "brothers" before him and is truly a noble being for being so unselfish.

In fact he may just possibly be a pouting spoiled rich kid who, like many of that ilk, thinks he is worth more then he is.

 

[mouser]

I’m explaining it works how cap friendly has outlined it lol.

Let's go back to your original post:

Negotiation strategy from Dubas to Nylander is:

The longer you wait the more money you will get, all I care about is your cap hit. I will give you all signing bonus money this year so you lose as little as possible.

This is inconsistent with all the CF articles. In every example the longer the player waited the less money they received from their contract. The year 2+ cap hits are lower because the player received less.

Note: none of the CF examples use year 1 signing bonuses. If they incorporated that into the formula then the year 2+ cap hits would be higher.