Nylander's Holdout is About a lot More Than Willy and the Leafs

[6zag]

Could some other team potentially offer sheet Nylander the money he's asking for (I really don't know) , and if yes, what would Tor do? Would Tor take the picks or cave in and match, and how would Tor management look like then?

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

A center, that at the time of the contract played primarily as a winger. Sound familiar? Odd that when TOR fans are looking to trade him they want him valued as a center, but when it time to pay him its all "he's a winger!"

As for Pasta's 6.6M deal that many are using as a comparable.... you do realize the cap has gone up since he signed that right? And that it customary for contract values to increase as cap dollars do? Pretty sure the present day version of a Pastrnak deal would put Nylander at over 7M per

Pasta's contract only kicked in this year. It's unthinkable that his agent wasn't aware the cap would go up for this season when they negotiated last year so it's still a comparable contract regardless of cap inflation.

 

[613Leafer]

Could some other team potentially offer sheet Nylander the money he's asking for (I really don't know) , and if yes, what would Tor do? Would Tor take the picks or cave in and match, and how would Tor management look like then?

Only four teams have the capspace + picks required to do an offersheet Nylander. Carolina, Colorado, Vancouver, and Arizona. A few reasons why they likely won't:

• Three of them weren't playoff teams last year, so they'd be risking giving up a lottery pick.
• In order to get him by offersheet, they'd have to overpay him. Nylander's market value is somewhere around ~6.5M. To get him by an offersheet? Would probably cost ~7.25M+ I'd imagine.
• Overpay Nylander, and what does that mean for other RFA negotiations on these teams? Aho, Rantanen, Keller, Boeser, etc all have upcoming contracts and all deserve more money than Nylander unless they have pretty bad seasons this year.
• Any contract over 5 years in length has its compensation based on the total $$ going to Nylander divided by 5, not by the actual number of years of the contract. So virtually anything 6+ years in length is going to require giving up two 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd because it will push the compensation number above ~8.1M (e.g. 7.25M over five years would be treated as 8.7M for offersheet compensation purposes).

If it actually happened, what would Toronto do? Probably depends on the contract, compensation picks, and which team it is (some are more likely to give up lottery picks). Can't see the Leafs matching though if it's above 7M. On a 5 year deal, that's a major overpayment (Larkin just signed for 5 years X 6.1M), and on a 6 year deal, they'd get two 1sts + 2nd + 3rd as compensation (plus have all that capspace to do something with).

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

Could some other team potentially offer sheet Nylander the money he's asking for (I really don't know) , and if yes, what would Tor do? Would Tor take the picks or cave in and match, and how would Tor management look like then?

The offersheet is a possibility, but unlikely IMO. First - the offersheet would have to be signed, which means that you're talking about meeting Willie's number (supposedly $8M+). To make that offersheet, a team has to have their next 4 1st round DP's, and have the necessary cap room.
For the most part, I don't think that Willy has proven enough to justify that contract, especially at center. If you're paying a forward $8M+, they either need to be dominant or be able to elevate less talented linemates, and IMO Willy hasn't had to show that ability yet.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Could some other team potentially offer sheet Nylander the money he's asking for (I really don't know) , and if yes, what would Tor do? Would Tor take the picks or cave in and match, and how would Tor management look like then?

If it were up to me at this point, I'd take the picks if someone wants to pay him $8M. This will only be worse next time around so let him be someone else's headache.

 

[613Leafer]

Pastas contract only kicked in this year. It's unthinkable that his agent wasn't aware the cap would go up for this season when they negotiated last year so it's still a comparable contract regardless of cap inflation.

Pastrnak's kicked in last year to be fair. BUT, because he was in the NHL at age 18, a 6 year Pastrnak contract eats up an extra UFA year compared to a Nylander contract.

So on the same length of deal you have two factors pushing for Pastrnak's caphit being higher (better player + contract eats more UFA years) and one that pushes against that (one year of the cap rising). Balance those factors out, and Nylander should still be paid less than Pastrnak.

 

[6zag]

Thank you for the replies, and clarifying things about the offersheet possibility - interesting times indeed..

 

[member 147413]

I agree that everyone is overreacting but the second A in GAA stands for average. Meaning it’s adjusted for games played

Sorry, I meant total GA

 

[authentic]

I'm at the point now where I don't even want him to sign.

 

[Nizdizzle]

I'm at the point now where I don't even want him to sign.

Cut off your nose to spite your face?

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

Seems like a rookie GM way in over his head. Shanahan making dumb comments probably didn't help matters.

I don't think it's strictly a Dubas decision. It's the collective thinking of the Leafs executive. Way over his head? But not wanting to overpay for a RFA.
I don't blame the Nylander for not signing any contract he doesn't like, but the Leafs have the option...not offering or signing a contract they don't like.

 

[authentic]

Cut off your nose to spite your face?

If you can't sign for what you're worth to play on a Stanley Cup contender then who really wants a player like that? Not me.

 

[Nizdizzle]

If you can't sign for what you're worth to play on a Stanley Cup contender then who really wants a player like that? Not me.

If he can't sign for what he is worth, he won't be signed. If and when he does get a deal with the Leafs, it'll be something that Dubas feels the team can manage. Which is a player I very much want on my team.

Can't let emotion impact judgement when it comes down to these kind of negotiations. Nylander isn't a bad person for trying to get paid. The Leafs aren't a bad organization for trying to keep his deal manageable. Each side has a breaking point - where they need to change their position. Just matters who reaches that point first.

 

[Jetsfan87]

If you can't sign for what you're worth to play on a Stanley Cup contender then who really wants a player like that? Not me.

Obviously the issue is that he believes he is worth more than what the Leafs have offered... Doesnt mean either side is wrong. It just depends how far each is willing to budge/meet in the middle. No team can force a player to take a hometown discount, you hope the players will so you can keep the gang together but that doesnt always happen....

 

[Crede777]

Could some other team potentially offer sheet Nylander the money he's asking for (I really don't know) , and if yes, what would Tor do? Would Tor take the picks or cave in and match, and how would Tor management look like then?

I doubt anybody will offersheet Nylander. Just as Nylander's holdout is about more than just him, Toronto's stance is about more than just the team.

As Friedman pointed out a few weeks ago, some front office people (anonymously) said they support what Toronto is doing in holding firm in their rights as a team with a player coming off his ELC. A win for Toronto is a win for GM's in general.

 

[Saskatoon]

I know there’s no statistic for it, but his presence on the young stars is what made him worth his contract.

He took Marner and Matthews under his wing, they don’t have the successful, modest, confident and level headed development of their character without him.

It’s often mocked on here but his intangibles are why I liked the move and won’t criticize him too too much.

He has provided some value but there is a reason why he traded in his sunglasses for a snow shovel. San Jose (or any other team) was not going to offer him that much. They had to offer him that much to pry him away from San Jose but a lot of people said when Marleau signed with the Leafs that the third year of that contract was going to cause cap hell.