Nylander's Holdout is About a lot More Than Willy and the Leafs

Due to the nature and speed in which the NHL is evolving this contract is about a lot more than just William Nylander and the Toronto Maple Leafs. The last several years the league has seen an incredible influx of young talent that have proven to be impact players much sooner than previous decades. This season might see more players in the first 5 years of their pro career in the top 60 of scoring than ever before. Traditionally players coming off an ELC are usually signed to reasonable mid term mid cost deals, usually a contract that doesn't end in them being a UFA. That third or fourth contract is most often seen as the payday, as these players have payed their dues and established themselves after many years of productive play. There are some notable exceptions(McDavid, Draisaitl, Eichel) that can be said to have changed the market, but for the most part players of this caliber aren't usually getting 8 years. Some recent examples of players on good money deals during their RFA status and what are likely their prime production years are; Mark Scheifle, Nathan MacKinnon, Alexander Barkov, Brad Marchand, Filip Forsberg, and even John Tavares. Some players sign smaller bridge contracts during these years like Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski, Nikita Kucherov, and Max Pacioretty. The contracts these players signed coming off their ELCs can be said to be typical of the tradition in the NHL of placing an emphasis on "earning" a big money deal through consistent production during the RFA status.

What Nylander and his camp are recognizing is that having this kind of talented youth producing like a premier player in the NHL has become more valuable than ever before. The NHL has trended towards youth, speed, and skill over veterans who might provide more "presence". With more young players proving their worth in shorter time periods and this contract being situated in the highest of profile markets in Toronto, it will have an important impact on setting the market for the next batch of 60+ point RFAs, of which there are certain to be more and more of around the league. Getting your young talent on good term and good money is of utmost importance to an NHL franchise in a hard cap system, even with that cap increasing. Nylander and his agent are absolutely right to be holding Dubas's feet over the fire and I'm sure the rest of the league is very interested in the outcome. This is a very important contract in modelling what some of the League's other young talent are going to be looking for over the next 5+ years. Will they be willing to take less just because they are "young" and are still Restricted Free Agents? Or will they demand to be valued for what they are as possibly the most vital pieces of an NHL team's future?

 

Leafs fans are gonna be all over you soon enough... good luck.

 

I think Nylander's situation is unique because it has become quite obvious that he doesn't want to play 4th fiddle to Matthews, Marner, and Tavares. The Leafs will likely trade him to upgrade their D and Nylander's new team will give him the money and recognition he deserves.

My 2 cents.

 

It's not a hold out at all. 2 sides arent able to agree, but putting it solely on Nylander is garbage

 

Can’t say i disagree w the premise. There’s a trend of underpaid players being 2nd contract/younger guys and overpaid players being UFA/older players (which is sort of obvious and logical). GMs are starting to get smarter about term at a certain age. It makes sense that younger players want to get paid, considering the volatility of career length/length of a players prime.

 

This is something people need to realize. Sure, if the Leafs were offering him fair, or more than fair deals, and Nylander just kept saying "no" to anything thrown his way, it'd be holding out. I see it more as a negotiation that isn't going as well as two sides would like.

 

Yep, demand a ridiculous amount of money, don't come off that term at all and don't negotiate in good faith, then just watch the money flow in when the Leafs who just signed John Tavares have problems scoring or winning games and just cave in. Genius!

 

You're somewhat right in almost all regards but absolutely wrong about one: There is no pressure on Dubas. He holds all the cards. Leafs could use Nylander but in no way need him. The only person that stands to lose anything in all of this is Nylander.

I doubt very much Nylander's motives are as altruistic as what you imply but even if they were, the proper forum for this battle is the CBA negotiating table, not the player contract negotiating table.

 

I would be surprised if NYlander continued his holdout long term. He's losing quite a bit of money each passing day.

 

i dont think he cares too be honest, he's willing to hold out to get his money. i'm guessing there's a massive gap between what he wants and what the leafs are willing to give and for that reason IMO he can risk missing an entire season.

 

While I agree, the Leafs are definitely offering Nylander a fair to more than fair deal. He's balking at what is said to be a $6M-$6.5M/year offer from Toronto, which is strange considering that a comparable player in Ehlers makes $6M/year, while a clearly superior player in Pastrnak makes $6.66M/year.

 

He could also be really hurting his development. If he sits out to the point that he missed the whole season, that is bad for him just as much as it is for the Leafs.

He's already probably going to be a big step behind if/when he returns to the NHL.

I hope a deal gets done, but I also don't mind Dubas sticking to his guns if he's offering a fair deal in that $6-$7m range.

I'd rather he play hardball with Nylander vs Marner or Matthews, that's for sure. If anyone on the Leafs with high value is expendable, or missed the least, it's probably Nylander.

 

Definitely hasn't become 'quite obvious' lol.

 

Riveting

 

The league has taken advantage of young players for far too long by giving the vast majority a dirt cheap bridge deal. Only a small handful get a big payday on their 2nd contract, so good on Nylander for fighting what he thinks he deserves, regardless of what anyone think of his contract demands.

 

There are lots of moving parts with this negotiation.

The fact that there may be another lock out in 2 years hinders a bridge contract to a degree. Nylander's status and stature has dropped in the team for the last 3 years. Dubas has 2 more significant contract signings coming up next year and needs to not only save money here but set the tone for future negotiations. An agent who has a history of pushing for his clients to sit out. A father who by all accounts is money driven. A President making claims of players taking discounts.

All of this however doesn't change the fact that publicly the Leafs management has always stated that they want to sign Nylander to the Leafs and at no time has Nylander asked to be traded.

I personally think this is just a perfect storm in terms of controversy and it doesn't help the matter that it's the Leafs that are embroiled in it.

 

You don't think he'll end up in Sweden when January 1st hits?

 

Negotiation strategy from Dubas to Nylander is:

The longer you wait the more money you will get, all I care about is your cap hit. I will give you all signing bonus money this year so you lose as little as possible.

 

I don't know but he better not get hurt.

The guy is taking a huge risk sitting out IMO. It is what it is though.

 

Perhaps but either way Sweden isn't going to make him a better NHLer. I would assume that if this does go beyond December 31st Nylander will try to play at the highest level he can and to also try to get the best contract he can but there's no indication that will be the best for his NHL career.

 

The savings are not that significant enough to play this game I don't believe.

 

They are

 

I can't wait to move on from this to people crying about cap circumvention when the Leafs sign him on Dec 1st.

 

It'll keep him in shape, and dominating Sweden will help his development (nowhere to the level of the NHL of course), it's the 3rd best league after the NHL/KHL

 

Seems like a rookie GM way in over his head. Shanahan making dumb comments probably didn't help matters.