Nylander/Jokiharju Trade Talk 2

[bwana63]

Yes, a groin injury which would obviously affect his skating when he tried to play through it. That's what I'm hoping prompted some of the critics to question Nylander's skating.

Notice the Sabres fans pointed out that (when called up) Nylander's skating looked strong.

Yep. Knee jerk was WTF? With some research (especially the observations made by the Sabres fans), it becomes clear that this looks like a good gamble. Fresh start, great situation, his table is set.

 

[piteus]

I agree with your post, except the bold. I'm not a huge Colin Cowheard fan, but I do find a good amount of his takes to be true. The other day I tuned into his show on lunch and he was discussing (or preaching, its Cowheard..) how the analytics of modern sports are swaying towards the "high risk, high reward" type plays. He mentioned how in the NBA the 3 pointer is overtaking the midrange jumper and lane shots. How NFL teams are taking the deep ball over bubble screens and running. How MLB players are swinging for the fences vs hitting in to the gap.

He's not wrong when you look at the stats. Is there still a place and need for everything outside of the "big play"? Yes. However that's clearly not going to slow down the high risk, high reward tendencies.

Is Stan on to something? Is he buying in to this idea of take the big shot or go home? We may never know. There's a balance that needs met between the safe play and taking a risky shot. The biggest risk is not taking a risk at all.

Either Cowherd is a racist or the worst of the sports gasbags. He actually said he doesn't care if he's wrong. His job to to get clicks/ratings. He's fine with only being right 50% of the time.

Cowherd claims he's not a racist but:

1. He blamed Sean Taylor for his own death because of his "lifestyle." Sean Taylor was murdered in his own home protecting his wife and child from intruders in the middle of the night. The intruders were there to rob him. He did NOT know them.

2. He said children who grew up with no fathers have little leadership skills. He targeted John Wall with those comments. I know plenty of people who are great leaders who had no father in their life.

3. He threw an entire island under the bus. Cowherd said Dominicans were too dumb to play football. They didn't have the "infrastructure" to understand the game. That's why they play baseball. Has Cowherd every been to South Florida? How many good football players come from that area? How about the great football and rugby players who come from Polynesia. They don't have the "infrastructure?"

I get that most sports garbage are playing a character ... but Cowherd straddles the line where his hot takes are borderline racist. Please do not say Cowherd tends to be right with his hot takes. He just throws things at the wall without taking inventory of his words. I find him lacking in intelligence with little nuance.

 

[ChiHawks10]

Friedman talks about this trade in the latest 31 Thoughts Podcast, beginning at 1:01:15.

Friedman: "After it got done I had a number of teams tell me that Chicago had made [Jokiharju] very available around the draft. And for whatever reason Chicago did not value him as highly as the rest of the league did. And it always makes you wonder because they know the player the best. They felt and Stan Bowman did allude to this in his post-trade conference call with Boqvist and some of the other prospects they had, they moved those guys ahead of Jokiharju."

So it's exactly as some here speculated. That Joker got passed by the development of other defensive prospects in the organization, thus making him the expendable asset.

 

[Kurtosis]

Either Cowherd is a racist or the worst of the sports gasbags. He actually said he doesn't care if he's wrong. His job to to get clicks/ratings. He's fine with only being right 50% of the time.

Cowherd claims he's not a racist but:

1. He blamed Sean Taylor for his own death because of his "lifestyle." Sean Taylor was murdered in his own home protecting his wife and child from intruders in the middle of the night. The intruders were there to rob him. He did NOT know them.

2. He said children who grew up with no fathers have little leadership skills. He targeted John Wall with those comments. I know plenty of people who are great leaders who had no father in their life.

3. He threw an entire island under the bus. Cowherd said Dominicans were too dumb to play football. They didn't have the "infrastructure" to understand the game. That's why they play baseball. Has Cowherd every been to South Florida? How many good football players come from that area? How about the great football and rugby players who come from Polynesia. They don't have the "infrastructure?"

I get that most sports garbage are playing a character ... but Cowherd straddles the line where his hot takes are borderline racist.

Those takes aren’t borderline racist, they are racist.

 

[ChiHawks10]

Either Cowherd is a racist or the worst of the sports gasbags. He actually said he doesn't care if he's wrong. His job to to get clicks/ratings. He's fine with only being right 50% of the time.

Cowherd claims he's not a racist but:

1. He blamed Sean Taylor for his own death because of his "lifestyle." Sean Taylor was murdered in his own home protecting his wife and child from intruders in the middle of the night. The intruders were there to rob him. He did NOT know them.

2. He said children who grew up with no fathers have little leadership skills. He targeted John Wall with those comments. I know plenty of people who are great leaders who had no father in their life.

3. He threw an entire island under the bus. Cowherd said Dominicans were too dumb to play football. They didn't have the "infrastructure" to understand the game. That's why they play baseball. Has Cowherd every been to South Florida? How many good football players come from that area? How about the great football and rugby players who come from Polynesia. They don't have the "infrastructure?"

I get that most sports garbage are playing a character ... but Cowherd straddles the line where his hot takes are borderline racist.

He's a dirtball, and a moron, and I've never thought he knew jack shit about sports, in general. Racist is an understatement when it comes to that turd.

Guy is practically wearing a hood and burning a cross with those comments.

 

[BK]

#2 is disgusting. @Kevin Musto let me borrow the vaseline after your done with it regarding Mitchell signing.

Very few players think to make that play.

The skill is there and that is obvious but the risk is very much there.

 

[jaysoneil]

I brought up his take regarding statistical analysis on risk vs reward. If you want to bring up his takes on other topics and redirect the intention of my post, that's all you.

 

[LordKOTL]

Because he was playing in the AHL at 18, 19, and 20 years old, and wasn't ready for it? Because Buffalo is terrible at developing players? Because Buffalo is a terribly run organization? Because he had some injuries?

He played 65 games as an 18 year old and had 28 points. (35 point pace)
He played 51 games as a 19 year old, and had 27 points. One less point in 14 less games. (43 point pace)
He played 49 games as a 20 year old, and had 31 points in 49 games. Four more points in 2 less games.(51 point pace)

He also played 12 games for Buffalo last season, where they said he played well in his call-up, and had 4 points in 12 games.

It sure looks like, when healthy, he is progressively getting better, year to year. At least based upon the stats.

His A-numbers just about match Sikura's--a guy who has been about as useless as a ****-flavored lollipop (RIP Rip Torn)
The kid is a gamble. Could he succeed, sure, and I hope he does. But some are so blinded by his ceiling that you fail to see his floor as a distinct, and equal, possibility as well. He hasn't done much at the A and didn't stick in Buffalo after 3 years. Change of Scenery? possible, but nothing more than a depth FWD/bust is just as possible. We could have another Strrome on out hands. We could also have another Jeremy Morin.

What if they both suck

GIGO? Possible. I've been high on Joker since his Portland days but the bottom could fall out on him. Same could happen to Nylander. GIGO might not put a nail into Stan's coffin but it also doesn't take one out.

 

[Illinihockey]

His A-numbers just about match Sikura's--a guy who has been about as useless as a ****-flavored lollipop (RIP Rip Torn)

Sikura is 24.

 

[ChiHawks10]

Sikura is 24.

Beat me to it.

 

[BK]

It is almost like players develop at different rates...almost.

 

[Muffinalt]

I think Sikura is going to surprise many of you. Without scoring the other parts of his game which are already impactful are easy to ignore. All he needs is a few bounces and all of a sudden he's a pretty good overall player.

 

[ndgt10]

BWC blew his gasket in a span of 4 hours?

 

[Washed Up 29YearOld]

Nylander has flaws but the kid is skilled if he plays with Kane for 82 i think he's a lock for at least 40 pts, but his maximum potential remains to be seen with a lack of drive and motivation. All the talent in the world, hope for your sake it's a wake-up call to improve.

I think it's a safe bet that Nylander cracks 40-55 pts a season IF he plays with Kane. He just doesn't have the intensity you'd want and is likely the softest player in the league. (TBH)

Trading a 20 yr old RH d-man who had a .3+PPG as a 19 yr old might be a mistake. But it's not like you got nothing. Seems d means less to your team than wing. it'll be a good trade for both teams. But seriously, traded the wrong guy for the wrong Nylander. Wish you luck.

PS: Dahlin is developing great, almost won the Calder. It's not like Buffalo is bad at developing players. Every young core player on the Sabres has improved each year. Nylander has had every opportunity to succeed and he looked great in his call-up, he even stood out. You got a good player.

PS: He is likely NHL ready and if he starts in the AHL he won't last there for long.

 

[CallMeShaft]

Not sure how you can say the first sentence, then say the next sentence...

It was a bad trade, but Nylander is young and has "top line" potential? That would mean it wasn't really that bad of a trade...

Nylander has less of a chance of hitting his potential. High ceiling, low floor.

 

[AmericanDream]

Nylander has flaws but the kid is skilled if he plays with Kane for 82 i think he's a lock for at least 40 pts, but his maximum potential remains to be seen with a lack of drive and motivation. All the talent in the world, hope for your sake it's a wake-up call to improve.

I think it's a safe bet that Nylander cracks 40-55 pts a season IF he plays with Kane. He just doesn't have the intensity you'd want and is likely the softest player in the league. (TBH)

Trading a 20 yr old RH d-man who had a .3+PPG as a 19 yr old might be a mistake. But it's not like you got nothing. Seems d means less to your team than wing. it'll be a good trade for both teams. But seriously, traded the wrong guy for the wrong Nylander. Wish you luck.

PS: Dahlin is developing great, almost won the Calder. It's not like Buffalo is bad at developing players. Every young core player on the Sabres has improved each year. Nylander has had every opportunity to succeed and he looked great in his call-up, he even stood out. You got a good player.

I think I can hit 40 points playing 82 next to Captain America..

And nobody is shitting on the Sabres, but it has been year after year of not getting the most out of your younger players..I love Eichel and Dahlin, but those top 2 picks are hard to f*** up on..it is the rest that separates great teams from mediocre ones. Nylander coming here is just a better situation for him and I am positive he will prosper here...but guess what?? so will Joker with you guys, he will fit in and do well and help stabilize that blue line with Miller..this will be a decent win win trade for both teams, anyone suggesting otherwise is out to lunch. Nylander has worlds of skill and will be playing with studs, Joker has the talent and all around game to be a solid soldier for a decade..

 

[AgentMacklin]

Nylander has less of a chance of hitting his potential. High ceiling, low floor.

That's how high risk, high reward works. Doesn't make it a bad trade.

 

[ChiHawks10]

Nylander has less of a chance of hitting his potential. High ceiling, low floor.

Why do you think that, though? Honest question.

Joker has shown he can be a top 4 D. Nylander oozes talent. I'd say Joker has a more reliable ceiling, whereas Nylander has a higher one, perhaps. I would consider their floor to be about equal. I see Joker as a top 4D. I see Nylander(no matter what) as a top 9 forward. After watching Nylander, and if believing his "motor" issues are true, I think the Hawks can fix that, so his talent says to me his floor is a 3rd line complimentary scoring player a la Andrew Shaw.

 

[RayP]

Why do you think that, though? Honest question.

Joker has shown he can be a top 4 D. Nylander oozes talent. I'd say Joker has a more reliable ceiling, whereas Nylander has a higher one, perhaps. I would consider their floor to be about equal. I see Joker as a top 4D. I see Nylander(no matter what) as a top 9 forward. After watching Nylander, and if believing his "motor" issues are true, I think the Hawks can fix that, so his talent says to me his floor is a 3rd line complimentary scoring player a la Andrew Shaw.

IMO Nylander has top line & 30/30 type potential, if not more, from what I've read.

Joker no doubt is safer, but he's not going to ever anchor a top pairing. I think at best he turns into a passable two, but is best utilized as a great 3. I also think worse case scenario he's still a decent 3rd pairing guy, where Nylander's worse case scenario is that he's not even on an NHL roster.

 

[ChiHawks10]

IMO Nylander has top line & 30/30 type potential, if not more, from what I've read.

Joker no doubt is safer, but he's not going to ever anchor a top pairing. I think at best he turns into a passable two, but is best utilized as a great 3. I also think worse case scenario he's still a decent 3rd pairing guy, where Nylander's worse case scenario is that he's not even on an NHL roster.

This is where we disagree, and probably where I disagree with quite a few others. I think worst case scenario for Nylander is that he's a 3rd line complimentary scoring guy, a la Andrew Shaw. I don't think he busts out of the NHL entirely, with his talent, just because he doesn't turn into a top 6 winger. He's too talented for that, IMO. I mean... look at guys like Motte, or Hino. Those guys have carved out roles on 3rd or 4th lines, and they don't have near the talent this kid does.

 

[RayP]

This is where we disagree, and probably where I disagree with quite a few others. I think worst case scenario for Nylander is that he's a 3rd line complimentary scoring guy, a la Andrew Shaw. I don't think he busts out of the NHL entirely, with his talent, just because he doesn't turn into a top 6 winger. He's too talented for that, IMO. I mean... look at guys like Motte, or Hino. Those guys have carved out roles on 3rd or 4th lines, and they don't have near the talent this kid does.

I haven't seen him play, but if the effort and motivation concerns are legit I'm not sure this guy is ever going to be an effective bottom 6er, unless he's on a loaded 3rd line. I think the only way he winds up as a good 3rd liner is if he's on a line with Strome and Cat, and let's be real that's not even really a 3rd line at that point, you're then looking at a 2A and 2B line.

 

[ChiHawks10]

I haven't seen him play, but if the effort and motivation concerns are legit I'm not sure this guy is ever going to be an effective bottom 6er, unless he's on a loaded 3rd line. I think the only way he winds up as a good 3rd liner is if he's on a line with Strome and Cat, and let's be real that's not even really a 3rd line at that point, you're then looking at a 2A and 2B line.

Remake of the 2015 3rd line. Or was it 2013? f*** my memory sucks these days.

 

[RayP]

Remake of the 2015 3rd line. Or was it 2013? **** my memory sucks these days.

They were both ridiculous 3rd lines.

Chicago Blackhawks: A Look at Their Depth Chart for 2013 NHL Season

Blackhawks to change lines for Game 1

 

[CallMeShaft]

That's how high risk, high reward works. Doesn't make it a bad trade.

I see Jokiharju as a clear cut top 4 defenseman and expect him to eventually be a #2-3D. He had huge upside.

Nylander being a top line winger who regularly gets 60-70pts a season is arguably just as good as a #2-3D, maybe even a little better, but I think there is a ton more risk for us and Nylander. I don't know if he'll ever become a top line guy for us (outside of playing 3rd wheel from time to time like Versteeg in 2015).

Why do you think that, though? Honest question.

Joker has shown he can be a top 4 D. Nylander oozes talent. I'd say Joker has a more reliable ceiling, whereas Nylander has a higher one, perhaps. I would consider their floor to be about equal. I see Joker as a top 4D. I see Nylander(no matter what) as a top 9 forward. After watching Nylander, and if believing his "motor" issues are true, I think the Hawks can fix that, so his talent says to me his floor is a 3rd line complimentary scoring player a la Andrew Shaw.

Nylander's floor is absolutely lower than Joki's. You might not think he turns out that bad (bust) , but there is a reason so many people, including the average joe on HF as well as countless hockey reporters, think Buffalo won the trade. It's because we now assume all the risks.

 

[ChiHawks10]

They were both ridiculous 3rd lines.

Chicago Blackhawks: A Look at Their Depth Chart for 2013 NHL Season

Blackhawks to change lines for Game 1

Good call. Too many herbs for me, apparently.