Speculation: Nylander Contract Discussion V

[Kiwi]

That would be career suicide for Nylander...

He knows he is in a good spot in Toronto, and there is no telling that if he were to change clubs, that he'd perform as well.

There would be a HUGE risk of 'career suicide' if Nylander pulls this card, especially if he has 50 million on the table like recent reports suggest.

Career suicide? That's wildly hyperbolic
He's young and talented someone is going to pay him to play

He can't force his way out. They can make him sit for a year if they want.

Awesome, what's he worth then?
You know since he's not playing and we killed his trade value

The inflation was put in the increased $$. You can't slash a year off and add the inflation to the $$. You could stay flat at 6 and take a year off which would go to Nylander's favor from an inflation perspective or increase the $$ and leave the term flat which would be a fair argument.

Ehlers took the security but got less money for it, this isn't complicated

The cap went up and Nylander took the risk of betting on himself and proved he's a consistent 60 point player which Ehlers didn't

Cap increase + better track record at the time of contract + comparables + Ehlers opting for security over AAV at the time he signed =

 

[hotpaws]

Ok....I said bridge so lets see what you said...
"2 yrs x 4.75
3 yrs x 5.5
5 yrs x 6.25
6 yrs x 6.75"
That includes year 2 & 3.

Let me add Kutcherov: 4.7 x3
Do you have any grasp of this subject matter?
You call me a moron...which should get you banned on the thread but I'll just let the irony hang here

maybe instead of giggling you can tell me why you feel the only comparison for a bridge deal should be Kuch ?

and did Kuch sign his bridge after his 1st or 2nd 60pt season ? (i honestly don"t know that's why i;m asking)

 

[Menzinger]

Why would anyone trade 99? anyone is available for the right price.

Yeah but the “right price” is usually so absurd it means such a trade is impossible to make.

 

[Trapper]

For 7 years:
Ehlers signed for 6 million AAV

I said in the OP 6.5 million AAV for Nylander.

Fair market value in accordance with his peers.
Now who are his peers?
We can’t afford to overpay Nylander by 1-1.5 million.
If Marner comes along then and beats that, you are also forced to overpay.
Then you may also need to widen the gap as a result with Matthews.
Overpaying the combined 3 by 4 million dollars is not good. No one alone wins the Cup. Our strength lies in retaining all players and still be able to add someone else. Or able to retain Kadri/Gardiner on next contracts. 3/4 million could be huge.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Awesome, what's he worth then?
You know since he's not playing and we killed his trade value

He would be the one killing his own trade (and monetary) value, as well as be risking his career, Momma Nylander.

 

[Eb]

Good thing Eb, if it was nhl 19 and his dad pulled this ****, id ship him to somewhere gross like Arizona, Columbus or Carolina. Gotta be tough on these guys Eb. You know damn well nonis would have given him 7.5 x 8 by now. Times are changing Eb.

Oh boy Mikey. 7.5 for 8 years is actually a very fair contract. I’d sign that immediately.

 

[hotpaws]

It is time for bed. You personally attack me and my children. Whrn your opinion is challenged you resort to personal attacks as always.
Good night Irene.

you've attacked Willie's dad and Mathews mom constantly because they're involved in there children's life but are butt hurt when someone turns the tables on you

and i never made a comment about your children , my comment was about you who constantly posts these players parents should not be involved with there children

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Oh boy Mikey. 7.5 for 8 years is actually a very fair contract. I’d sign that immediately.

Too much money.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

you've attacked Willie's dad and Mathews mom constantly because they involved in there children's life but are butt hurt when someone turns the tables on you

and i never made a comment about your children , my comment was about you

My point made, again.

 

[Nineteen67]

Oh boy Mikey. 7.5 for 8 years is actually a very fair contract. I’d sign that immediately.

I bet he would...

 

[kindalaidback]

first game i ever remember watching was the skins/dolphins super bowl 40 odd years ago with George Allen and the over the hill gang , i was just a wee kid and became a fan and still am

my parents made the choice for me. I can’t even remember when I watched my first football game, but as a New Yorker you either root for the Giants or the Jets, and the Jets f***ing suck. At least we’ve won the SB twice in the past 10 years.

But losing against dallas hurts.

 

[Leafs at Knight]

Good thing Eb, if it was nhl 19 and his dad pulled this ****, id ship him to somewhere gross like Arizona, Columbus or Carolina. Gotta be tough on these guys Eb. You know damn well nonis would have given him 7.5 x 8 by now. Times are changing Eb.

Nonis somehow would've traded 2 2nds in signing Nylander to a brutal contract.

 

[Notsince67]

maybe instead of giggling you can tell me why you feel the only comparison for a bridge deal should be Kuch ?

and did Kuch sign his bridge after his 1st or 2nd 60pt season ? (i honestly don"t know that's why i;m asking)

Kucherov had a 65 and a 66 point season with 29 and 30 goals respectively. The Kucherov example was in response to the lowballing accusation.

 

[hotpaws]

My point made, again.

you're point is what exactly ?

 

[hotpaws]

Kucherov had a 65 and a 66 point season with 29 and 30 goals respectively. The Kucherov example was in response to the lowballing accusation.

and again i ask why is Kuch the only comparable you feel should be used?

 

[Kiwi]

He can't force his way out. They can make him sit for a year if they want.

So we sit a 60 point forward on the sidelines for a season?

Great idea that won't completely **** his value

For 7 years:
Ehlers signed for 6 million AAV

I said in the OP 6.5 million AAV for Nylander.

Ehlers took a low number and opted for security plus the cap increase this year? I think it's low still

6.75M-7M × 7 is where I'd ballpark it

I don’t think it’s that far off what his contract will come in at. I know it’s not fair market value - that’s not the debate. I think we can just be ruthless with negotiations.

If I am Dubas I stick with the notion that everyone must sacrafice to be on a winning team - even if that means leaving 500K...750K on the table. I’d tell him: winning here will earn him more in Volvo like sponsorships than he can make on a Peter C run team.

The reality is we can’t pay him fair market value and be a good team down the line. (Which is why I’d hardball him, then trade if necessary)

For the record Willy is my second favourite player on the Leafs.

I love the kid to and if he's willing to "take one for the team" he can but I wouldn't plan my cap strategy around it and he's got no trade protection either so there's not a lot in this for him if we're being honest

 

[Kiwi]

He would be the one killing his own trade (and monetary) value, as well as be risking his career, Momma Nylander.

Stop with the petty insults, it doesn't make you look any smarter

If he sits it kills his value for us as well remember? Both parties are putting guns to their heads in that scenario

 

[Kiwi]

We do not have to trade him. There is your mistake.

He doesn't have to play either or he makes himself that big a distraction he has to be traded

Our own Trouba situation, that won't turn toxic in Toronto I'm sure

That's your mistake

 

[Mikeyg]

Yeah but the “right price” is usually so absurd it means such a trade is impossible to make.

Menz, you are spending too much time thinking that real life is like HFboards, the value is never equal. EK just got traded for like a 28 ova pick and a 6th d, bad trades are more possible than you are giving them credit for.

 

[Mikeyg]

Oh boy Mikey. 7.5 for 8 years is actually a very fair contract. I’d sign that immediately.

Yikes Eb, yikes. He ain't worth that.

 

[Faltorvo]

Bloody hell, stop trying to trade him just pay him what he's worth
6.25M-6.5M × 6

6m x 7 not a penny more

or me willi can make my day and demand a trade.

i love seeing camps like that get what they have earned

a one way ticket to watch on TV what will happen here over the next 7 seasons.

 

[diceman934]

you've attacked Willie's dad and Mathews mom constantly because they're involved in there children's life but are butt hurt when someone turns the tables on you

and i never made a comment about your children , my comment was about you who constantly posts these players parents should not be involved with there children

i guess you were one of those parents who kicked his kid out at 18 and didn't give a damn what happened to them

and i'm sure there's a long list of teams who would have no problem paying him a fair market contract

Unprovoked attack on me and my children and a liar to boot.

 

[diceman934]

He doesn't have to play either or he makes himself that big a distraction he has to be traded

Our own Trouba situation, that won't turn toxic in Toronto I'm sure

That's your mistake

No you said he would make us trade him and that simply is not true. As we do not have to trade him at all. He is already not playing as that is why we are discussing him.,

 

[diceman934]

Career suicide? That's wildly hyperbolic
He's young and talented someone is going to pay him to play



Awesome, what's he worth then?
You know since he's not playing and we killed his trade value



Ehlers took the security but got less money for it, this isn't complicated

The cap went up and Nylander took the risk of betting on himself and proved he's a consistent 60 point player which Ehlers didn't

Cap increase + better track record at the time of contract + comparables + Ehlers opting for security over AAV at the time he signed =

Nylander did not want to sign last year and he took a chance that he would have a better yeast hoping to get more money. He did not have a bettter year so he failed to prove his value was greater then the year before.
He has no better track record at all. One player right out of the draft the other did not. In their draft plus 2 season they both produced similar number same as in their draft plus 3 years. Again similar numbers. They are currently the same.

 

[diehardleafsfan9878]

I have noticed a lot of posts comparing Nylander and Marner's linemates and how they either improve the play of their linemates (Marner improving his linemates totals) or hindering (Matthews being able to produce without Nylander but Nylander not being able to produce without Matthews),

But nobody has brought up more in depth numbers on this. If we look at the last 2 years for each player:
Marner: 2016-2017 19 Goals 61 Points 21 Power Play Points = 40 Even Strength Points (ESP)
Nylander: 2016-2017 22 Goals 61 Points 26 Power Play Points = 35 Even Strength Points (ESP)
Marner: 17-18 22 G 69 P 27 PPP = 42 ESP a difference of 2 ESP and 6 PPP
Nylander: 17-18 20 G 61 P 12 PPP = 49 ESP a difference of 14 ESP and 14 less PPP.

Now a big argument in this thread is how Nylander has had the privilege of playing with Matthews but we all know that Matthews Power Play unit was not as effective this year, but let me ask you this, who played on each unit this year.

Unit #1 (Marners Unit) Consisted of Marner, Kadri, JVR, Bozak, and Rielly. And did this unit change much? Not really, Marner 82gp, Kadri 81, JVR 81, Bozak 81, and Rielly 76. So the player who missed the most time, is the one defenseman on the unit but all defensemen play with everyone throughout the season.

Unit #2 (Matthews Unit) Consisted of Matthews, Nylander, Gardiner, Marleau and a combination of Brown, Komarov, Johnasson, Leivo.
Matthews missed 20 games and it is known that he played most of the second half of the season with injury. Komarov 74GP.

Fact is Nylander significantly increased his ESP while switching positions and changing linemates, but also saw his PPP drop significantly with a unit that saw a lot of turnover.

Marner saw his ESP increase by 2 but saw what I would consider a significant boost to his PPP by 6 but also had the luxury of being on a unit that was together basically the entire season.