Speculation: Nylander Contract Discussion IV

[Svanstrom]

Marner and Nylander are not the same age...

Well, I said 1 point less in PP. Obviously I'm comparing Williams 2016-17 season to Marners 2017-18 season. I do know they're 1 years apart... So at the same age they were 1 point apart in PP production.
My point is that it comes down to a lot of coincidence in the PP production.

 

[Al14]

Is Nylander indirectly asking for a trade by asking for too much money too soon?

This is getting ridiculous now. Nylander should be on the ice with his teammates!

Come on Willy, there is NO I in TEAM!

 

[hullsy47]

Well, I said 1 point less in PP. Obviously I'm comparing Williams 2016-17 season to Marners 2017-18 season. I do know they're 1 years apart... So at the same age they were 1 point apart in PP production.
My point is that it comes down to a lot of coincidence in the PP production.

if there was a team willing to give nylander 8 million wed have heard about .hes worth 6 and hes gonna get less ice time ,he knows it ,his dad knows it also.
the leafs signed tavaras ,it changed the dynamics ,now hes maybe 4 or 5 on the leafs depth ,and really does he desrve more than kadri .?
lot of it depends if u absolytley love the player ,or is he a part of a collective group of good oung players.
but I cant think of a team that would pay him more than 6 mil a year to be honest ,not tampa ,not buffalo ,not Detroit ,maybe florida but it looks to me like he.s sitting out on bad advice
if he never got offer sheeted ,there is a reason ,now marner and Mathews will get offers
signing tavaras gave the leafs 7 years of protection against some stupid GM form going all MIKE MILBURRY on us

 

[LeafSteel]

Is Nylander indirectly asking for a trade by asking for too much money too soon?

This is getting ridiculous now. Nylander should be on the ice with his teammates!

Come on Willy, there is NO I in TEAM!

If he is, then he is getting very bad advice from his agent.

If anything, he needs to to look at Marleau leaving SJ after forever, and JT leaving NY, both taking less money, for a chance to play for the Leafs.

I doubt Nylander and his agent are smarter than those 2 veterans and their respective agents, so they must know something that Nylander's agent is missing.

Nylander is an important part of this team, but if he is going to hold-out for a salary that doesn't allow the Leafs to keep their core long-term, I think he could find himself on the outside sooner than he thinks, with no say as to where he gets sent, and with no assurance of the payday he thinks he deserves.

I think the end-game for Nylander and his agent gets worse the longer this goes on. He has no leverage here, and Dubas will absolutely do whatever is best for the team, with or without Nylander. He isn't going to be dictated to by anyone.

Truth be told, I think the Nylander camp will fold sooner than later, and come in just under $7m, on a long-term contract. A bridge isn't in our best interests, and we need the cost certainty of a long-term contract for Nylander now, before we start looking to lock up Matthews and Marner. If Nylander's agent can't see that, then he is a prime trade asset to get us what we need long-term, starting with shoring up our D.

Again, I don't think it gets that far and I think Nylander get's signed long-term for $7m/per, and it happens sooner than later. His agent has a rep for being a $!#@! to deal with, and if he's smart, they will both see the writing on the wall here.

In the end, Toronto is going to be an awesome place to be and play for at least the next 5-7 years.........

 

[Svanstrom]

Are more predictable at what? Determining who is a good ES producer? Sure... The bottom line is, Good offensive players can produce on the PP. Nylander’s stats may have also been inflated by Auston Matthews.... I highly doubt he reaches the 60 point mark in both seasons if he wasn’t with Matthews... and it showed as in both seasons the 20+ games away from Matthews, his production dropped to a high 40s-low 50s pace.

For example, 2017-18 season Connor McDavid had 84 ES points, best in the league. But his PP production was, by his standard, only 20 points. Tied for 62nd in the league.
And it's probably not because McDavid is an average player when it comes to PP.
PP production comes down to a whole bunch of factors compared to ES production.
Making ES points more predictable.
Nylander had a very mediocre PP production last season because of various underlying circumstances.
With that in mind I think it's more than likely that he ends up over 70 total point over 82 games next season.

 

[Ratboy]

Is Nylander indirectly asking for a trade by asking for too much money too soon?

This is getting ridiculous now. Nylander should be on the ice with his teammates!

Come on Willy, there is NO I in TEAM!

This guy gets it.

 

[MyBudJT]

For example, 2017-18 season Connor McDavid had 84 ES points, best in the league. But his PP production was, by his standard, only 20 points. Tied for 62nd in the league.
And it's probably not because McDavid is an average player when it comes to PP.
PP production comes down to a whole bunch of factors compared to ES production.
Making ES points more predictable.
Nylander had a very mediocre PP production last season because of various underlying circumstances.
With that in mind I think it's more than likely that he ends up over 70 total point over 82 games next season.

I think people are misunderstanding what I'm trying to say.

I'm NOT suggesting Nylander is a poor player

What I am suggesting:
1) Marner is in another tier
2) Nylander's stats have been inflated by playing with Matthews.

Things like inconsistencies in PP production is what I've been using to support this premise... but I'm not going to try and split hairs here... Nylander is still a good player and would be great to have long term... He just isn't worth > 6,5 mil on any length of contract.

 

[Menzinger]

I think people are misunderstanding what I'm trying to say.

I'm NOT suggesting Nylander is a poor player

What I am suggesting:
1) Marner is in another tier
2) Nylander's stats have been inflated by playing with Matthews.

Things like inconcies in PP production is what I've been using to support this premise... but I'm not going to try and split hairs here... Nylander is still a good player and would be great to have long term... He just isn't worth > 6,5 mil on any length of contract.

But the numbers don’t really shown Nylander being carried by Matthew’s though, they show both players complement and elevate one another’s production.

As for the PP, Matthews numbers also dipped last season - it was a dysfunctional systems/unit issue rather than individual players (both likely should have had an extra 7-10 points pp points)

 

[MyBudJT]

But the numbers don’t really shown Nylander being carried by Matthew’s though, they show both players complement and elevate one another’s production.

As for the PP, Matthews numbers also dipped last season - it was a dysfunctional systems/unit issue rather than individual players (both likely should have had an extra 7-10 points pp points)

Thats simply not true.

In 20+ game smaples in the last two seasons, Nylander's production has dropped to a high 40s/ low 50s point pace when away from Matthews.

 

[Menzinger]

Thats simply not true.

In 20+ game smaples in the last two seasons, Nylander's production has dropped to a high 40s/ low 50s point pace when away from Matthews.

That’s an incredibly small sample size of games though. And fact is if you take any players most common line mate away for a short amount of time and it will throw off their game.

When Brown was on Matthews wing instead of Nylander the line wasn’t nearly as effective.

 

[Svanstrom]

I think people are misunderstanding what I'm trying to say.

I'm NOT suggesting Nylander is a poor player

What I am suggesting:
1) Marner is in another tier
2) Nylander's stats have been inflated by playing with Matthews.

Things like inconcies in PP production is what I've been using to support this premise... but I'm not going to try and split hairs here... Nylander is still a good player and would be great to have long term... He just isn't worth > 6,5 mil on any length of contract.

If they sign a 8 year contract with Nylander, then you're for sure going to be wrong about that.
Like it or not...
Obviously I would love to see 6m x 8 years myself. But it's not reasonable.
And to think that Nylander should take a big discount just because he is signing with Maple Leafs is just so arrogant.

 

[diceman934]

Accirding to Dubas the deal is on the table and is not going to change. People believe it is 50m over 8 years. It is a fair deal and comes with long term security something that has a lot of value.

Ball is in Nylanders camp. According to Dubas it is long term only so all the post that are saying bridge deal are now wrong. Dubas put it out there and will look like weak if he backs down.

Nylander sign the contract another 8 year deal will be available at the end of this one that will see you in the drivers seat.

 

[MyBudJT]

That’s an incredibly small sample size of games though. And fact is if you take any players most common line mate away for a short amount of time and it will throw off their game.

When Brown was on Matthews wing instead of Nylander the line wasn’t nearly as effective.

Again, two 20 game samples (40+ games total) is not a small sample

Brown barely played with Matthews this year, but over a significant sample last year (30+ games), Matthews actually produced better with Brown on his line than he did Nylander... Not sure where you're getting these 'facts' from...

If they sign a 8 year contract with Nylander, then you're for sure going to be wrong about that.
Like it or not...
Obviously I would love to see 6m x 8 years myself. But it's not reasonable.
And to think that Nylander should take a big discount just because he is signing with Maple Leafs is just so arrogant.

Listen, this isn't about being 'cheap'... its about remaining competitive in the cap era. Tampa Bay has signed their best players to team friendly deals... Nashville has... why shouldn't we?

 

[IBeL34f]

yup , getting him to sign a worse deal than all his comparable's would be a steal

good on Willie for not saying a word or pulling a "Kessel'' and demand to be traded

love to know what both sides are asking/offering

Which of Willy's comparables signed for 8 years?

 

[hotpaws]

Which of Willy's comparables signed for 8 years?

None that I know of .

And extending the term with a similar cap hit is what makes it such a bad deal on Willie's end .

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I can't wait when things go even a little bit south this millennial GM will melt almost immediately. Sure he has his pals (Mirtle, etc) in media circle, but they can't save him.

You know it's really easy to tell you're a Jets fan right?

 

[budzz]

The numbers in general in todays game are just wonky. I luv Willy and think for sure he has another level, but in what world is a 20 goal scorer worth this kind of money? Crazy. Assists are going to happen on this team no matter what with our firepower, but a 20 and a 22 goal season and "meh" playoffs should not constitute opening the vault. Unless you are sure he is going to elevate to a perennial 30 goal guy at least, some of the numbers I'm hearing are goofy.

Hold firm KD.

 

[IBeL34f]

None that I know of .

So how would a contract that is only slightly higher than his comparables, but is also 1-2 years longer than any of his comparables, be a worse deal than those of his comparables? The cap hit might be a little higher, sure, but you're giving yourself some extreme savings, theoretically, on another UFA year that other teams aren't getting.

 

[hotpaws]

So how would a contract that is only slightly higher than his comparables, but is also 1-2 years longer than any of his comparables, be a worse deal than those of his comparables? The cap hit might be a little higher, sure, but you're giving yourself some extreme savings, theoretically, on another UFA year that other teams aren't getting.

Signing for a similar cap hit for a longer term at his age and chewing up the majority if not all his prime years is a worse deal when you consider that if continues to develop he would be in line for a much bigger payday as a 27 yr old ufa as compared to a 30 yr old ufa.

 

[luvdahattymatty]

Heading out for another ride in the sun today. maybe my last one. something in my gut tells me Dubie has made his point to everyone at camp - all the players and parents and grandparents. Everyone now knows he will not roll over. But everyone still wants Nylander back. So i think this can still be positioned as Dubie led a great fight for team cap and Nylanders family did not get pushed around with a compromise here. Maybe some more time needs to go by. i dont think it is as big a deal if a young guy like him misses camp. i think it can still be said he took a slight discount at 6.75M over 8 years. Seems fair deal to me. Everyone wins. Go leafs Go. I dont like the hate Nylander camp or Dubie needs to be rock hard camp either. These are things that create hard feelings down the line. I hope Dubie can get back to his laid back happy personna where this will all get resolved in time. I hope Shanny and Babs are not pushing him behind the scenes. i dont think Shanny would. he is hockey smart. but i could see Babs getting upset this is his baby camp and you can see he loves it.

 

[SweLeafsFan]

Just do 6.5x8 and get it over with...

 

[hotpaws]

listen, this isn't about being 'cheap'... its about remaining competitive in the cap era. Tampa Bay has signed their best players to team friendly deals... Nashville has... why shouldn't we?

We should sign them to team friendly deals if we can but since none of our rfa's or ufa's have signed yet it looks like they want fair market deals .

And if that was our goal we should have started by limiting our offer to JT to 9-9.5 m instead of trying to spin 11m per as a sub market deal.

 

[hotpaws]

Just do 6.5x8 and get it over with...

Or we could offer him what most of his comparables got 6.2 to 6.5 over 5/6 yrs and get him in camp .

 

[diceman934]

If they sign a 8 year contract with Nylander, then you're for sure going to be wrong about that.
Like it or not...
Obviously I would love to see 6m x 8 years myself. But it's not reasonable.
And to think that Nylander should take a big discount just because he is signing with Maple Leafs is just so arrogant.

6m per is not a huge discount for our 5th most important forward it is about a team salary structure. He would be more valuable on lessor teams as he would be second most value on those but he is the property of the Leafs and not those lessor teams. That is why some contracts are out of whack with what comparable players at time. Look at Eichel as an example he is paid 10m per starting this year and if he was a Leaf he would slot in much lower as he would be arguably our 3/4 best forward and paid accordingly. You see this all over the League when players are signed within a year of each other on the same team.

 

[Clark4Ever]

The numbers in general in todays game are just wonky. I luv Willy and think for sure he has another level, but in what world is a 20 goal scorer worth this kind of money? Crazy. Assists are going to happen on this team no matter what with our firepower, but a 20 and a 22 goal season and "meh" playoffs should not constitute opening the vault. Unless you are sure he is going to elevate to a perennial 30 goal guy at least, some of the numbers I'm hearing are goofy.

Hold firm KD.

I agree, although a long term deal changes the equation somewhat. The team is taking a calculated risk based on his projected production over the term of his contract. If he gets even close to the number he is seeking, he better develop into a perennial 30 goal, 70-80 point player.