Friedman: Nylander and Theodore updates

[Michel Beauchamp]

hockey is played on the ice not on a stat sheet. you're an old dude you should know better

I did not say anything to the contrary.

In fact, I often refer to "magical beans" and "Emperor's New Clothes" when discussing so-called "advanced metrics".

But, if honest, you'll have to admit it's a (very) funny factoid...

 

[notsocommonsense]

That Hall deal looks amazing. $6M/yr for the next two.

Eberle and Nuge... not so much.

Ha, yes the hall deal is great. . . Which only further illustrates my point about the oilers moves not being the gold standard to reference

 

[Drake1588]

This league is effed if 20 goal scorers command $8 million.

I don't think too many people are of the opinion that he ought to make $8M right now. Most see him as a lesser player than that, maybe a $6M player. The more interesting question is whether it makes sense for him to commit to a long deal at a far lesser number than $8M. He's not there today. Should he consider it a fair possibility that he's there in three years' time? If he's signing for eight, future potential is relevant.

At the moment, I think he's hoping for a long-term deal that pays for potential, but I doubt that position is going to be tenable for long. A bridge deal where he makes less now for one or more likely two years, banking on improvement, is where I think this ends up. Then maybe he will be able to point to improved production to make a convincing case.

It probably won't be a deal the Leafs can fit under the cap with their other players, mind you, particularly if they plan on improving their defense any time soon. But it was never very likely that the Leafs were going to keep Matthews, Tavares, Marner, Nylander, Rielly, plus significant defense improvements not yet on the team. It's always been probable that eventually, he's traded for defense. Not now, but in time.

That's what this is really all about, and it's Nylander's cross to bear that he's first up. They're going to get the same answer when they ask Matthews and Marner to take a discount for the good of the team. Everybody's going to get paid.

 

[Nizdizzle]

Great is certainly open to debate, he's been good yes but great? Reserve that for those that actually are.

Leafs don't have to make any moves, they have a good team as is. They are not however one of the best teams as they sit right now. That may change of course if improvement comes from areas that need it.

So defense - terrible. Goaltending - just "good". Yet somehow the Leafs have been in the top half of the league for fewest goals allowed. At some point something has to give and folks are going to have to admit the goaltending has been great, or the defense isn't actually that bad.

 

[member 300185]

I know and understand hockey well enough to say that switching out a bottom pairing defenceman != changing the defence. The top 4 is the exact same so unless Ron ****ing Hainsey had the best offseason of his life no, nothing's changed.

You said "unchanged". Thats what you said and your were wrong. Now, in typical HF fashion, you try to turn it around and cover it up.

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

So defense - terrible. Goaltending - just "good". Yet somehow the Leafs have been in the top half of the league for fewest goals allowed. At some point something has to give and folks are going to have to admit the goaltending has been great, or the defense isn't actually that bad.

Goaltending, but because of the backup.

If McElhinney had saved the same percentage as previously in his career, the Leafs would have given up 15 more goals, putting them at 19th rather than 12th.

To be honest, it's quite possible that the dmen and forwards were playing a tighter game when the backup was in.

 

[TOGuy14]

This league is effed if 20 goal scorers command $8 million.

Blame Edmonton then.

Draisatl has scored 19, 29, and 25 goals the past three seasons and got 8.5M

 

[kittiecarlyle]

So defense - terrible. Goaltending - just "good". Yet somehow the Leafs have been in the top half of the league for fewest goals allowed. At some point something has to give and folks are going to have to admit the goaltending has been great, or the defense isn't actually that bad.

You think your goaltending has been "great"? You truly believe it to be "great"? What is the definition of that, top 3/4? Best in the league? He's been neither to be very direct.

You used the word terrible, the dmen are not terrible but again not in the top tier of the league certainly. As we all know having the puck and productive forwards certainly aid a less than stellar set of dmen.

Something that may have to give is actually having fans be accurate and not blinded by loyalty.

 

[Pens x]

You think your goaltending has been "great"? You truly believe it to be "great"? What is the definition of that, top 3/4? Best in the league? He's been neither to be very direct.

You used the word terrible, the dmen are not terrible but again not in the top tier of the league certainly. As we all know having the puck and productive forwards certainly aid a less than stellar set of dmen.

Something that may have to give is actually having fans be accurate and not blinded by loyalty.

Andersen has to be pretty damn good to play behind that sorry group of dmen

 

[Maplebeasts]

Andersen has to be pretty damn good to play behind that sorry group of dmen

He is thanks for noticing. You'd expect a Pens fan of all teams to understand how being stacked at forward can be a winning formula.

 

[kittiecarlyle]

Andersen has to be pretty damn good to play behind that sorry group of dmen

Which doesn't have to equate to being great though.

 

[rent free]

You think your goaltending has been "great"? You truly believe it to be "great"? What is the definition of that, top 3/4? Best in the league? He's been neither to be very direct.

You used the word terrible, the dmen are not terrible but again not in the top tier of the league certainly. As we all know having the puck and productive forwards certainly aid a less than stellar set of dmen.

Something that may have to give is actually having fans be accurate and not blinded by loyalty.

the leafs as a team had the 5th highest save percentage in the league. what you are forgetting is that the leafs backup goaltender was exceptional this past season. andersen was 5th in the league in gsaa (goals saved above average) and mcelhinney was 16th is that category. mcelhinney had the highest save percentage in the league among regular backups and andersen was 16th among goalies who played 50+ games.

the goaltending was great. no question about it.

 

[Advanced stats]

That defence has remained unchanged

Does interal improvement of a young core not count?
Shocking that a young group could easily get better.
The defense is very young and growing. Safe to say they could get better.

 

[The Drop]

Blame Edmonton then.

Draisatl has scored 19, 29, and 25 goals the past three seasons and got 8.5M

Don’t worry. In 3 years when everyone is paid the same they’re going to say Draisaitl was a good deal.

 

[haulinbass]

I don't think it was a great move to bring in JT and sign him to that large contract. I think the future core of Matthews, Nylander and Marner up front was plenty of high end talent. Toronto management set the bar high with that contract. No way Nylander or Marner play for 6-7 mill when JT walked right in and takes 11 per.

Without JT setting the bar Toronto could have got Nylander and Marner signed before signing Matthews. Team comparisons would have been Kadri's and Reilly's very team friendly contracts. Personally, If I was as good as Nylander and Marner, I would feel insulted making just north of half of what JT is making. If nobody on the team was making that kind of money, I would feel pretty good about making 6 mill and already being paid more than two very good players in Kadri and Reilly. How does a player like Nylander get behind the idea of a team first winning culture when a player is being paid 11 million? You don't. You feel disrespected by the teams offer.

JT is a great player, just not sure 11m cap combined with him pushing up the rest of the cores cap hit is a positive move going forward. If its Crosby or Ovechkin, I get it. How could any other player expect to make anywhere near players that great. JT is a very elite player, but he isn't great enough to separate himself from Nylander and Marner by quite a few millions per season.

 

[kittiecarlyle]

the leafs as a team had the 5th highest save percentage in the league. what you are forgetting is that the leafs backup goaltender was exceptional this past season. andersen was 5th in the league in gsaa (goals saved above average) and mcelhinney was 16th is that category. mcelhinney had the highest save percentage in the league among regular backups and andersen was 16th among goalies who played 50+ games.

the goaltending was great. no question about it.

You are right it was great lol.

Glad you are the king of decisions. How in the hell did they not win a playoff series?

 

[rent free]

You are right it was great lol.

Glad you are the king of decisions. How in the hell did they not win a playoff series?

they didn't win a playoff series by losing 4/7 games.

 

[Pucklington]

Blame Edmonton then.

Draisatl has scored 19, 29, and 25 goals the past three seasons and got 8.5M

He's also scored 70+ in consecutive seasons.

 

[Confucius]

I don't think it was a great move to bring in JT and sign him to that large contract. I think the future core of Matthews, Nylander and Marner up front was plenty of high end talent. Toronto management set the bar high with that contract. No way Nylander or Marner play for 6-7 mill when JT walked right in and takes 11 per.

Without JT setting the bar Toronto could have got Nylander and Marner signed before signing Matthews. Team comparisons would have been Kadri's and Reilly's very team friendly contracts. Personally, If I was as good as Nylander and Marner, I would feel insulted making just north of half of what JT is making. If nobody on the team was making that kind of money, I would feel pretty good about making 6 mill and already being paid more than two very good players in Kadri and Reilly. How does a player like Nylander get behind the idea of a team first winning culture when a player is being paid 11 million? You don't. You feel disrespected by the teams offer.

JT is a great player, just not sure 11m cap combined with him pushing up the rest of the cores cap hit is a positive move going forward. If its Crosby or Ovechkin, I get it. How could any other player expect to make anywhere near players that great. JT is a very elite player, but he isn't great enough to separate himself from Nylander and Marner by quite a few millions per season.

according to the site below JT ranked 12TH, Nylander ranked 84th
Fantasy top 250 rankings for 2018-19
according to this site JT ranked 10th Nylander not in top 100
Top 100 NHL Players of 2018–19: The Full List - Sportsnet.ca
acording to this list JT 9th Nylander not in top 100
Fantasy forward top 100 rankings for 2018-19

appears Nylander should be thrilled to earn half of JT money.

 

[kittiecarlyle]

they didn't win a playoff series by losing 4/7 games.

And during that series the goaltending was great? Presume it had to be as you've declared it was.

 

[rent free]

And during that series the goaltending was great? Presume it had to be as you've declared it was.

during various points in that series the goaltending was great. in a few parts of game 1, some parts of game 2, almost all of game 3,5 and 6 andersen was saving our lives. in the rest of the games the goaltending was not great.

what i was referring to when i brought up those stats was the goaltending in the regular season. that was great for most of the season. the goaltending results in the playoffs were quite different than the regular season for the leafs, unfortunately.

 

[kittiecarlyle]

during various points in that series the goaltending was great. in a few parts of game 1, some parts of game 2, almost all of game 3,5 and 6 andersen was saving our lives. in the rest of the games the goaltending was not great.

what i was referring to when i brought up those stats was the goaltending in the regular season. that was great for most of the season. the goaltending results in the playoffs were quite different than the regular season for the leafs, unfortunately.

Various parts mean next to nothing overall.

As I have said Andersen is good but in my estimation he definitely isn't or hasn't been great.

Of course some people have less expectations for greatness.

Now, he may indeed develop more and be more consistent and elevate to that level, we'll see. IMO he definitely hasn't done what is needed to be universally declared great by anyone other than Leafs loyalists.

 

[The Man with a Plan]

Great is certainly open to debate, he's been good yes but great? Reserve that for those that actually are.

Leafs don't have to make any moves, they have a good team as is. They are not however one of the best teams as they sit right now. That may change of course if improvement comes from areas that need it.

Well compared to the goalies we had for a few years before him he's great! But yes he has room to improve and surely will as the team in front of him starts to play better team D.

That's the thing a lot of posters are not taking into consideration either. We got rid of Leo and Polak...two players that cost us on more then a few occasions. Also got rid of Bozak and Jvr. Both were not committed to a strong two way game.

That's addition by subtraction at its finest right there. Then you factor in the addition of a possession monster and two way player like JT and it got a bit brighter. Now we see what some of the young guys making moves at camp can do for those spots.

Sometimes the best move you make is the move you don't make.

We sit and watch and wait. Maybe someone we like becomes available. Maybe we wait until the deadline before adding to the D. Or maybe we just have the patience needed to let our youth like Dermott, Lilley, Sandman and Durzi can give us.

It's not like it's either we win the cup this year or we pack it like the Send and burn it to the ground.

This is the year JT gets used to our system and how everyone best fits together up front. Next year we add at worst only Lilly and maybe Sandman.

It's not anywhere near as bad as the media loves to trumpet. Like that toolbox without a tool Sid. "Media" like him are mostly responsible for all the kerfuffle about WN. People buy into it without thinking of the big long window about to open for the team..

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

Strange that some say Andersen saved the Leafs will his play. Then in his 18 games, Mcillerney had a better GAA and Save %. So I don't think the Leafs defence was that bad that the goalies saved them for all 82 games. Maybe shots of goals isn't a great indication of defensive efficiency.

 

[rent free]

Strange that some say Andersen saved the Leafs will his play. Then in his 18 games, Mcillerney had a better GAA and Save %. So I don't think the Leafs defence was that bad that the goalies saved them for all 82 games. Maybe shots of goals isn't a great indication of defensive efficiency.

you're right. its the quality of shots against, the high expected goals against, the high expected goals against per 60 that are a great indication of defensive efficency.