The thing is, that distinction ranges from irrelevant to orders of magnitude more damning than simple ineptitude.
Non-advanced team statistics with Babcock and Keefe (updated in OP 12/26/19)
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The thing is, that distinction ranges from irrelevant to orders of magnitude more damning than simple ineptitude.
Mickey Marner
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One ironic contrast I've noticed is I'm rarely sure who's going to hop over the boards for us. With Babcock it was like a drinking game.
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If 100 is the normal, the team reverts to it
Again, this is according to Dubas. A win streak is not sustainable. A losing streak fueled by “bad puck luck” will also end.
Ours ended.
Simple stuff.
Maybe you missed this, I actually agree that Babcock had to go. As I said, Dubas deserves to succeed or fail with a management team of his choice. He and Babcock didn’t agree on some things and that’s a dangerous political mix. I would have done the same.
This other crap about Babcock being a dinosaur, garbage human and the rest is offside as fair as I’m concerned.
Let’s end on a high note.
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The missing piece in his management style is simply this.... what did his boss want?
Shanahan hired him. Shanahan asked the Wings for permission (and paid a draft pick) to get him.
They didn’t hire him on a whim. They had a specific intent.
They didn’t want a country club. They wanted a work ethic. They wanted players who sacrificed for the team. They wanted them to be professional.
Big picture...remember this was a team that had some issues:
“ Last season (2014), a senior Maple Leafs team executive met with Toronto Police Service officers to address concerns that Leafs players were purportedly using cocaine or were associating with those who were, according to two people familiar with the matter.”
Leafs exec met with police to discuss cocaine use
That’s what he was brought in to do. That’s what he seems to have done.
That’s was his mandate. His brand. And what he sells himself on.
He has a massive golden parachute and choose to be what he was.
Asking him to be anything different than what he has built a reputation on is very, very shortsighted and naive.
Yes, it trends that way. That doesn't mean 100 is every team's normal.
Yes, but "the bad streak ended" does not capture anyone near the entirety of what has transpired this season.
Babcock was good at the job he was here for at the beginning, and it was needed then. The problem was, we got Matthews and Marner and Andersen (and later Tavares), our rise accelerated tremendously, and Babcock was the wrong coach for that type of team.
Babcock was notorious for being unwilling to change his mindset, even for the most obvious things, and we are seeing what the consequences of that likely were. I understand people being upset with lost potential. As for the comments about him personally, I certainly don't agree with a lot that has been said, but I also don't agree with many of his reported tactics, especially as somebody who preaches mental health initiatives and "being a gud pro". I have less sympathy for somebody who, by all indications, actively created a pretty toxic work environment.
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It’s a bigger picture than just one guy being a barrier.
In Lou’s world, if the player was a problem... the player went away. He had his policies.
My guess is that when Lou left, some of the power that Babcock had over players went away.
Dubas was sympathetic to player concerns as he probably shared some of them too.
Players who did want to challenge Babcock.... either directly or through “protest effort”... felt that they could do so a little more freely. Dubas’ Rep in negotiations probably helped them to feel powerful too.
And ultimately Babcock lost his grip.
We can argue whether having a grip is the right thing.
We’ve seen what it’s like when the Muskoka Five ruled the day. We’ve seen what Babcock’s style led to.
Not sure there is a magic plan.
This is the way Dubas operates now. So this is our direction.
But trashing Babcock for being what the team needed is naive in my opinion.
Menzinger
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Theres an awful lot of unsubstantiated speculation/pdojection here....
kb
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That’s why I said “my guess”
Lou did have a rep of backing his management. Of the NJ “way” ... no I in team and no hair in face
And we know that Babcock and Dubas had rifts.
So, I change my comment from “my guess” to “my educated guess”
even still, he’s currently the most balanced and sensical I’ve ever seen him right now. Let’s just let it ride and hope it sticks
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Awww thanks bro.
It’s totally my fault... I used big words, direct quotes, stats and references.
saffronleaf
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14-4-1 under Keefe
I don't even want to post our record this season under Cruelcock
I don't even want to post our record this season under Cruelcock
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Dubas is aware of the record and has briefed the Board that this is unsustainable
(Enjoyable mind you)
Leafsfan74
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Backup goaltending was and is an issue. It's strange, because all of the early season back to backs in some ways made a fair comparison tough. The team was horrible in back to backs and no wins for backup. It's conceivable to think if instead of 0-7, the backup had gone 3-4, he would still be coach.
Keefe wisely is going to ride Andersen. I couldn't agree more, especially when you've dug yourself an early standings hole. He has the prospect of more home games, and I expect Andersen to play a back to back or two (if any are left) when they arise.
Ultimately though, I think there are enough differences to acknowledge that Keefe, at least to this point (we will see in three years); knows how to coach to this teams strengths better than Babcock. He is honest enough to realize since the team doesn't have depth, you HAVE to play your best players big minutes. Babcock was seemingly trying to find balance in a lineup that is simply too top heavy to try. I found this peculiar considering how young these best players are. He's more new school, as are the players in his lineup. So, they probably mesh better on some cerebral level.
The biggest change is probably in their outlook and confidence. Sometimes confidence just breeds confidence. Once they hit a rough spot we will see how it goes (though, I think they lost 3 of 4 at one point under Keefe, yet, here they are). I think they are firmly of the belief they are invincible when they set their minds to it. Similar to how they played at some points in the past, but rather than it being because media said they were the cats meow, they actually believe it internally.
With this new found confidence (or rather, re-claiming of this lost confidence), is the fact they feel free-er to play a more aggressive game. If they fail to score the first goal, which they were horrendous as doing under Babcock this year, or, even blowing a 3 goal lead, as they did against Carolina; they feel they can overcome it by sheer Will.
I said before and immediately after Babcock was fired, I think and believe this team is a playoff team. If they make it in, they can make some noise. Right now, Keefe is the right coach for this current roster. If they succeed, credit has to be given to Dubas for believing in them, he was probably convinced last year Babcock didn't "get" what Dubas saw.
You can be sure other teams are taking notice.
Drytoast
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I've come to the conclusion that Babcock was.is the most stupid, egotistical NHL coach I have ever had the pleasure of watching.
Nithoniniel
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Trying to calculate what a resting PDO for our team would be. Goaltending should - balanced by career goaltending performance and work load - push us up towards 1005. Our expected goals advantage and overall shooting talent should bring that to around 1015 at least. The top shooting teams through the last couple of years are around 10, our average has been 9.72 which is the exact same as we have under Keefe. We're at 1022 with Keefe. From a PDO standpoint, our current level of play seems entirely sustainable.
Now, Babcock's results were likely to get better than they were, but not to the same degree. For one, the systems implemented for this season saw us crumble in terms of expected goals, so the shooting talent portion wouldn't be at the same level. Furthermore, that team was visible far from its norm. It wasn't just variance that caused us to cave in, we were a significantly worse team than we had been in the last few years. I'd guess that a resting PDO for that team would be closer to the league average 1000. Put Babcock's team through thousands of simulations, and I guess the average for us would be right around the wild card spots.
That's much better than what we had, but it's also a far cry from Keefe's Leafs which has been the best team in the league since he took over.
Edit: Had a few mistakes in there but the overall results are similar either way so the point stands.
Now, Babcock's results were likely to get better than they were, but not to the same degree. For one, the systems implemented for this season saw us crumble in terms of expected goals, so the shooting talent portion wouldn't be at the same level. Furthermore, that team was visible far from its norm. It wasn't just variance that caused us to cave in, we were a significantly worse team than we had been in the last few years. I'd guess that a resting PDO for that team would be closer to the league average 1000. Put Babcock's team through thousands of simulations, and I guess the average for us would be right around the wild card spots.
That's much better than what we had, but it's also a far cry from Keefe's Leafs which has been the best team in the league since he took over.
Edit: Had a few mistakes in there but the overall results are similar either way so the point stands.
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This is a fairly intellectual post and I like it.
Are you saying that with the exact same talent.... including goaltending.... that Babcock’s PDO would be lower than Keefe’s?
With the primary variable that influences the difference being deployment and effort?
If so, a good comparison might be the last full season under Babcock. Though the roster was different in spots... the core was fairy similar with similar goaltending.
And the talent we had... though injured from Jan onward in places... hadn’t quit trying (or reduced their “try”). Effort level would be similar.
That PDO in all situations, all scores was 101.3.
We could theorize that if our PDO is not 100... that it’s likely within earshot of this 101.3 number under Keefe.
Reasonable?
I don't like to draw parallels but when Pittsburgh fired Johnston in December 2015, their team took off in a huge way and their offense was head and shoulders above the rest of the league for the rest of the season. Their GF/G was 3.24, and the 2nd best team offensively (Dallas) was 3.09, and the 3rd best team was 3.04.
Pittsburgh separated themself from the pack by a significant margin. The Leafs are doing the same thing, except we are doing it by a significantly larger margin.
Under Keefe - our GF/G 4.16, Colorado comes in at second with 3.75. I understand the sample size is small and the gap will close between us and the other teams, but I have zero doubt whatsoever we are by far the best team in the league offensively under Keefe.
Pittsburgh separated themself from the pack by a significant margin. The Leafs are doing the same thing, except we are doing it by a significantly larger margin.
Under Keefe - our GF/G 4.16, Colorado comes in at second with 3.75. I understand the sample size is small and the gap will close between us and the other teams, but I have zero doubt whatsoever we are by far the best team in the league offensively under Keefe.
But the team is very different though.
Half the defense(Holl, Ceci and Barrie) didn't play on the Leafs. (Despite Holl was a Leafs and sat in the press box).
Almost half the forwards are different-Soup, Kerfoot, Engvall, Spezza, and Tima.
The core remained the same but the team is different, and the lines are different.
By no means am I saying Keefe is a much better coach than Babs and a lot of the losses under Babs were a result of just really bad puck luck.
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I think though that of the players that left and of the players than came back... many are similar in skill.
I know we tend to overrate guys we like and underrate those we don’t... but the market is a good equalizer in ratings.
League minimum guys are league minimum guys. Eg Ennis out. Spezza in.
Fundamentally... with Marner, Tavares, Hyman, Matthews, Nylander, Kapanen, Rielly, Andersen... it’s a similar, though not identical team.
Don’t make me do extra homework man. Kids are away. Wife is out at the mall... wine is being poured
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