Nolan Patrick, Part 2

[EXTRAS]

Could u guys still see him becoming a Jon toews type? How is his defensive play?

 

[Rebels57]

Could u guys still see him becoming a Jon toews type? How is his defensive play?

He's actually very good defensively and has been since his the get-go in his rookie season. His issue the first few seasons has been slow starts.

He came into his rookie season having barely played hockey the year before due to injuries. He got off to a slow start and then sustained a concussion pretty early on. From about January until the end of his rookie season, he produced at over a 50 point pace.

His sophomore season, he didn't have the same excuses as his rookie season, but still got off to a similarly slow start and then heated up from January until the end of the season.

If he can put it all together for a full season, he is probably a 30-30 guy.

I don't think Toews is the best comparable though.

 

[deadhead]

Patrick has steadily improved defensively, he has very good instincts, his biggest problem was inexperience and lack of strength. Both which should resolve themselves as he matures.
Our three best defensive forwards are Couts, Lindblom and Patrick. Not a bad trio.

 

[mercury]

I would take Sean Couturier 2.0.

 

[Larry44]

He's actually very good defensively and has been since his the get-go in his rookie season. His issue the first few seasons has been slow starts.

He came into his rookie season having barely played hockey the year before due to injuries. He got off to a slow start and then sustained a concussion pretty early on. From about January until the end of his rookie season, he produced at over a 50 point pace.

His sophomore season, he didn't have the same excuses as his rookie season, but still got off to a similarly slow start and then heated up from January until the end of the season.

If he can put it all together for a full season, he is probably a 30-30 guy.

I don't think Toews is the best comparable though.

Injuries aren’t excuses and he did have a couple head injuries this year, in Oct and Dec. Let’s hope he’s healthy this year.

 

[deadhead]

The head injuries are a concern, but the concussion protocols make it less likely that a player's career will be cut short.

If his defense continues to improve, Patrick with 40 ES points is better than any free agent center other than Duchene.
Duchene last 6 years has averaged 46 ES points a year and average to below average defense.
Patrick had 29 in 72 games, or 32 in a full season, so a jump to 40+ is not a big stretch, especially with Lindblom and Voracek/TK as his wings.

Patrick has to:
1) stay healthy, some of that is better anticipation and learning to avoid hits
2) get stronger, strength will be a big part of his game going forward, he should fill out to around 6'2 215 or so (6'2 198 at the combine).
3) play with more confidence, it's his third season, he should be comfortable with NHL level of play

It's just far more likely that he'll make a jump than he'll have another 30 ES point season.
Given JVR, Lindblom, Couts, Giroux, Voracek, he'll probably be on PP2 and only get 5-10 PP points. On another team he might be on PP1 and get 20.

 

[Tripod]

The head injuries are a concern, but the concussion protocols make it less likely that a player's career will be cut short.

If his defense continues to improve, Patrick with 40 ES points is better than any free agent center other than Duchene.
Duchene last 6 years has averaged 46 ES points a year and average to below average defense.
Patrick had 29 in 72 games, or 32 in a full season, so a jump to 40+ is not a big stretch, especially with Lindblom and Voracek/TK as his wings.

Patrick has to:
1) stay healthy, some of that is better anticipation and learning to avoid hits
2) get stronger, strength will be a big part of his game going forward, he should fill out to around 6'2 215 or so (6'2 198 at the combine).
3) play with more confidence, it's his third season, he should be comfortable with NHL level of play

It's just far more likely that he'll make a jump than he'll have another 30 ES point season.
Given JVR, Lindblom, Couts, Giroux, Voracek, he'll probably be on PP2 and only get 5-10 PP points. On another team he might be on PP1 and get 20.

The problem is that it's just not Patrick. Frost ALSO has to come in and play well. Patrick will take one of those C spots...#2 or 3. But you still need a C that is not on our roster, to take the other one. Unless you want to play Laughton as #3 and Pimp #4.....or slide Giroux back over.

And therein lies the issue.

 

[wankstifier]

He’s already better than Tavares

 

[deadhead]

The problem is that it's just not Patrick. Frost ALSO has to come in and play well. Patrick will take one of those C spots...#2 or 3. But you still need a C that is not on our roster, to take the other one. Unless you want to play Laughton as #3 and Pimp #4.....or slide Giroux back over.

And therein lies the issue.

I'm not worried at all about Frost, after watching Thomas.
While Thomas was more physically mature, Frost was as good of a CHL player.
Frost a year older should have no problem in the NHL - we're not talking a Laughton for example:

Thomas at 18: 49g 24-51 75 PO 21g 12-21 32
Frost at 18: 67g 42-70 112 PO 24g 10-19 29
Laughton at 18: 49g 23-33 56 PO 7g 7-6 13

All three later 1st rd.
The difference was Frost wasn't as physically developed, Flyers did the right thing sending him back one more season.
Frost responded by taking his game up a notch, in the regular season, WJC-20: 5g 4-4 8, and in the playoffs: 11g 7-11 18

Nothing is ever certain, including any FA you sign, but to me Frost is about as close to a "sure thing" as you're going to find in a prospect, not just the talent, but the extra CHL season to refine his game and get stronger.

 

[Tripod]

I'm not worried at all about Frost, after watching Thomas.
While Thomas was more physically mature, Frost was as good of a CHL player.
Frost a year older should have no problem in the NHL - we're not talking a Laughton for example:

Thomas at 18: 49g 24-51 75 PO 21g 12-21 32
Frost at 18: 67g 42-70 112 PO 24g 10-19 29
Laughton at 18: 49g 23-33 56 PO 7g 7-6 13

All three later 1st rd.
The difference was Frost wasn't as physically developed, Flyers did the right thing sending him back one more season.
Frost responded by taking his game up a notch, in the regular season, WJC-20: 5g 4-4 8, and in the playoffs: 11g 7-11 18

Nothing is ever certain, including any FA you sign, but to me Frost is about as close to a "sure thing" as you're going to find in a prospect, not just the talent, but the extra CHL season to refine his game and get stronger.

Well Fletch wants to add a C. So one of Frost or Patrick he/they are not as sold on as you are(for this coming year).

Wonder which one.

 

[IronMarshal]

I have been a big supporter of Patrick. Would have chosen him over Nico. That said, he absolutely has to pop this year, or at least show massive improvement in the scoring department. Since he was drafted, Hischier who was picked before him, Peterson, Heiskanen, and in later drafts, Tkachuk, Dahlin, Svechnikov, maybe Kotkaniemi have passed him, with Glass, Frost, both Hughes’ , Kaapo and Byram coming this year, his own pride has to be driving him to be the man.
This is the year he needs to make his move. He is healthy for the whole off season. Giddy up Nolan. Now is your time.

 

[Rebels57]

I have been a big supporter of Patrick. Would have chosen him over Nico. That said, he absolutely has to pop this year, or at least show massive improvement in the scoring department. Since he was drafted, Hischier who was picked before him, Peterson, Heiskanen, and in later drafts, Tkachuk, Dahlin, Svechnikov, maybe Kotkaniemi have passed him, with Glass, Frost, both Hughes’ , Kaapo and Byram coming this year, his own pride has to be driving him to be the man.
This is the year he needs to make his move. He is healthy for the whole off season. Giddy up Nolan. Now is your time.

Maybe we get lucky and if Patrick doesn't turn into a legit top 6 Center, Frost does..and it all equals out.

 

[deadhead]

Actually, I expect both to become top six centers, I think Frost's ceiling is probably 2C but Patrick could grow into a "Couts" like 1C as he fills out.

The three reasons most top prospects fail are poor work ethic, lack of hockey IQ or injuries.

 

[FlyTimmo]

Frost's ceiling is definitely not limited to a 2C. He has some of the highest upside in the organization.

 

[tymed]

It's nice and all that Patrick worked notably hard on his finishing last summer, but until he improves his skating and agility, he won't be able to find enough small space to put it into any use. Agility remains his biggest need for improvement.

 

[Magua]

I'd call Patrick's core strength (strength in general) more important than anything. He can flash well with his feet, especially through the NZ. He will never be Jack Hughes. He needs to be able to take a check without splaying out.

The rest is confidence.

 

[Gert B Frobe]

It's funny as hell hearing Jets fans asking for Patrick and the 11th when they actually get Pionk and the 20th... Oh yeah and Fox is suddenly amazing as well.

 

[Jtown]

I'd call Patrick's core strength (strength in general) more important than anything. He can flash well with his feet, especially through the NZ. He will never be Jack Hughes. He needs to be able to take a check without splaying out.

The rest is confidence.

you can't take a single stride on the ice without activating your core muscles. You can't even walk without that aspect. It is all connected. Patrick has a lot to work on and physically maturing is something that is on that list.

 

[baudib1]

Eat more ham sandwiches.

 

[tymed]

I'd call Patrick's core strength (strength in general) more important than anything. He can flash well with his feet, especially through the NZ. He will never be Jack Hughes. He needs to be able to take a check without splaying out.

The rest is confidence.

Goes hand in hand with his agility. Core strength should be his main focus in improving his agility. He doesn't flash any footwork that's relatively noteworthy to anyone else. He is not a bad skater by any means and has good speed, which as you mention, he manages to make good use of through the NZ. But he still steers himself around like he's on a pair of skis and you can see that on any single one of the shifts he takes. I agree his core strength needs to improve because he won't be able to improve his footwork without it in that frame.

 

[deadhead]

I'd call Patrick's core strength (strength in general) more important than anything. He can flash well with his feet, especially through the NZ. He will never be Jack Hughes. He needs to be able to take a check without splaying out.

The rest is confidence.

Yep, and that's where the surgeries have delayed his development.
Two straight summers lost to core surgeries, last summer was the first time he could work out in the offseason.
Which is why you can't compare his timetable to someone like Nico who was never injured.

Patrick should fill out to 6'2 215-220 and eventually be able to "beast" in tight areas.

There may also be a psychological factor, like a player reluctant to push a rebuilt knee, Patrick may subconsciously favor his core - but over time players lose their fear of reinjury.

 

[Johnk0728]

This is Patrick's 3rd season in the NHL. He appears to be healthy. Its up to him now. We will see if he is a legit NHL top 6 player this year. I like the idea that players like Frost and Hayes are there to push him. its amazing what competition and the prospect of losing playing time due to the better play of another player can do to one's effort.

 

[tictactoe]

I hope for 17-20 goals 45-50pts and two way game of course. Actually two way game is more important scoring will come.

 

[hatcher]

Goes hand in hand with his agility. Core strength should be his main focus in improving his agility. He doesn't flash any footwork that's relatively noteworthy to anyone else. He is not a bad skater by any means and has good speed, which as you mention, he manages to make good use of through the NZ. But he still steers himself around like he's on a pair of skis and you can see that on any single one of the shifts he takes. I agree his core strength needs to improve because he won't be able to improve his footwork without it in that frame.

Should be training twice a day and f***in hard to.

 

[Jettany]

Maybe we get lucky and if Patrick doesn't turn into a legit top 6 Center, Frost does..and it all equals out.

So true. Sometimes its more about slotting players and contract then actually reaching some sort of ceiling. If he becomes a very good/star (not superstar)player and gets 10 million a year is that better then good/very good at 4 million a year? Coot is the perfect example. Never gonna be a superstar per se but what a steal at 4 mill a year.