Nolan Patrick, Part 2

[mercury]

It's funny as hell hearing Jets fans asking for Patrick and the 11th when they actually get Pionk and the 20th... Oh yeah and Fox is suddenly amazing as well.

I can't like posts right now, but I like this post.

 

[TheKingPin]

It’s interesting bc we don’t really need anything other than maybe some more star power. A 2OA was never part of our plans but we got lucky. If Patrick can live up to that pick we are going to be in great shape. It would obviously be great if he was a 90
Pt guy but that’s not happening. If he could get to 70 pts and two way we hit a home run and going to be in great shape. And as rebel said it could workout in the end that Frost is the best young center we have. Whatever works.

I think Patrick has the opportunity to work his ass off this summer. Train and train and train. His surgeries were some of the toughest for a hockey player. It was obvious how it effected him. We should know early this year where he is. If he puts up 60 pts this year I will be so happy.

 

[deadhead]

So true. Sometimes its more about slotting players and contract then actually reaching some sort of ceiling. If he becomes a very good/star (not superstar)player and gets 10 million a year is that better then good/very good at 4 million a year? Coot is the perfect example. Never gonna be a superstar per se but what a steal at 4 mill a year.

The leaders in GAR over the last two seasons combined:
Couts, Giroux, McDavid, Barkov, Stone, Point, Stamkos, Kucherov

Maybe Couts isn't a superstar, but then who is?

 

[Rebels57]

It’s interesting bc we don’t really need anything other than maybe some more star power. A 2OA was never part of our plans but we got lucky. If Patrick can live up to that pick we are going to be in great shape. It would obviously be great if he was a 90
Pt guy but that’s not happening. If he could get to 70 pts and two way we hit a home run and going to be in great shape. And as rebel said it could workout in the end that Frost is the best young center we have. Whatever works.

I think Patrick has the opportunity to work his ass off this summer. Train and train and train. His surgeries were some of the toughest for a hockey player. It was obvious how it effected him. We should know early this year where he is. If he puts up 60 pts this year I will be so happy.

Id be happy with 50 and satisfied with 40. 60 is a stretch.

 

[prototypical4thliner]

Id be happy with 50 and satisfied with 40. 60 is a stretch.

Aim higher friend. Enjoy the disappointment.

 

[Nabrules]

Patrick is coming in as the 3C this year. Even if he improves mightly for his inconsistencies, this he’ll end up with around 40-45 points! Happy with that kinda improvement

 

[TCTC]

Couturier 70-80 points, Hayes 50-60 points, Patrick 40-50 points is probably the best we can hope for.

 

[Harhis]

The leaders in GAR over the last two seasons combined:
Couts, Giroux, McDavid, Barkov, Stone, Point, Stamkos, Kucherov

Maybe Couts isn't a superstar, but then who is?

So Giroux is superstar after all?

 

[Harhis]

Couturier 70-80 points, Hayes 50-60 points, Patrick 40-50 points is probably the best we can hope for.

And if we get that Flyers are going to be one of the best teams in the league. How many teams had 3 50 point centers? I'm going to guess 0.

 

[kudymen]

So Giroux is superstar after all?

G is not elite, Couturier is a superstar. Just prepare yourself for a big time lesson on semantics.

 

[TCTC]

And if we get that Flyers are going to be one of the best teams in the league. How many teams had 3 50 point centers? I'm going to guess 0.

Sharks had Hertl (74), Couture (70), and Thornton (51).

We should have one of the best center depths in the league, especially if Patrick progresses.

 

[Rebels57]

And if we get that Flyers are going to be one of the best teams in the league. How many teams had 3 50 point centers? I'm going to guess 0.

Toronto was pretty close, with Kadri hitting 44 points in 73 games as the 3C.

Best you can hope for out of a 3C nowadays is 40-45 points in most cases. If they are somehow a PP1 fixture, that can change things though.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

A 40-45 point, strong 2-way 3rd line center is ideal. If Patrick can give the Flyers that, the team will be in a good spot.

 

[deadhead]

Forget total points b/c that's so dependent on PP usage, often a 20 point swing between PP1, PP2 and no PP time.
PP units are a separate issue, that is, it's less important who is on the PP than how the PP as a whole performs.

You want scoring depth to go 3 lines deep, see St Louis where the 3rd line had three players close to 30 ES points.
First two lines are going to score: G, Couts, Voracek, JVR, Hayes, TK most likely, all six are proven scorers (40+ ES points).
Question on the third line will be Lindblom, Patrick and ??? (Laughton, Frost or Farabee most likely).
If the third line has 3 players with 30+ ES points (last year, Patrick 29, Laughton 30, Lindblom 30) that's a deep forward group.

So if Patrick is 35+ ES points this season he's having a fine season at 3C, especially if he's playing plus defense and getting a lot of shutdown assignments.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Well that's quite the walkback from surpassing Tavares.

 

[deadhead]

Well that's quite the walkback from surpassing Tavares.

Give him time, if Patrick gets up to 40+ ES points, he's could be a better ES player than Tavares, who is a liability defensively.

Depends on how much Patrick improves defensively, if he can be a Couts/Kopitar/Toews type.
Even before Couts broke out as a scorer, he put up GAR of 8.9, 11.8, 9.7, based primarily on his two way play at ES. And that was with ES scoring of 29, 31, 31 and limited PP time.
So if Patrick can become a top defender and put up 40+ ES points he'll easily be a 10-15 GAR forward.

JT last six years: 7.8, 13.1, 9.9, 9.4, 8.9, 18.1
We'll see if he can repeat last year's performance, more likely he'll regress toward his career norm.

 

[TheKingPin]

Id be happy with 50 and satisfied with 40. 60 is a stretch.

I’d be happy with 50 and very happy with 60. I think he has 25 goals and 35 assists in him. He basically put up those numbers over half a season twice. Needs to put it all together in what typically is a breakout year for players. Of course, I thinking he outplays Hayes for the 2C and gets more ice time with Hayes getting under 50. I think we have a good shot at coots being coots and our 2C scoring 50 pts.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Give him time, if Patrick gets up to 40+ ES points, he's could be a better ES player than Tavares, who is a liability defensively.

Depends on how much Patrick improves defensively, if he can be a Couts/Kopitar/Toews type.
Even before Couts broke out as a scorer, he put up GAR of 8.9, 11.8, 9.7, based primarily on his two way play at ES. And that was with ES scoring of 29, 31, 31 and limited PP time.
So if Patrick can become a top defender and put up 40+ ES points he'll easily be a 10-15 GAR forward.

JT last six years: 7.8, 13.1, 9.9, 9.4, 8.9, 18.1
We'll see if he can repeat last year's performance, more likely he'll regress toward his career norm.

He's gonna need to do quite a bit more than 40 ES points. You know Tavares had 69 ES points last year, yeah?

"Give him time" is a huge walkback from the original "By the end of the season."

 

[deadhead]

You know that was probably an anomaly for Tavares, given he averaged 53 ES points from age 23-27.
Some of that may be playing on the most talented top 6 group in the league, but also just having a career year.
Odds are he'll regress back to that 50 point level for a couple years before declining in his 30s.
And I doubt he'll suddenly morph into a top ten Selke candidate.

I'm disappointed in Patrick's slow progress, but I don't think the dominant player he was at 17 just evaporated.

If he was 100% healthy the last few years I'd be concerned, or if he had character issues, but there's no evidence he lacks hockey IQ or work ethic (the two major reasons top prospects flop). Quite the opposite, despite his offensive struggles, Patrick has improved defensively, and showed the willingness to play a 200 foot game, uncommon in top prospects.

 

[baudib1]

I don't know what's worse, the comparison to Tavares or the comparison to Couturier.

Patrick is a fine two-way responsible center. He ain't Couturier on defense -- Couts was a Selke caliber forward at 19 -- and likely never will be. He's not Tavares on offense and never will be. Tavares also isn't a liability on defense.

Those guys are top 10 centers.

I'll settle for a healthy 45-point season from Patrick, which should put him in the top 70 centers in the league.

 

[Striiker]

Every top offensive player is automatically a liability on defense.

Hadn’t you received the dinosaur stereotype weekly bulletin?

 

[Jettany]

I don't know what's worse, the comparison to Tavares or the comparison to Couturier.

Patrick is a fine two-way responsible center. He ain't Couturier on defense -- Couts was a Selke caliber forward at 19 -- and likely never will be. He's not Tavares on offense and never will be. Tavares also isn't a liability on defense.

Those guys are top 10 centers.

I'll settle for a healthy 45-point season from Patrick, which should put him in the top 70 centers in the league.

Watched Tavares for years. Very much a defensive liability.

 

[wankstifier]

Watched Tavares for years. Very much a defensive liability.

He does make defenders look pretty silly

 

[MasksAreForSlaves]

Inconsistency has been his only issue. As previously mentioned, he's shown the work ethic, the hockey iq, and spurts of extraordinary talent. Flyer fans that are setting their expectations low on Patrick simply have no patience.

He should supplant Hayes at 2C by midseason. This is the year he breaks out. 55-60 pts. I fully expect him to become 1C by 2021 and a 70-80 pt scorer for a long time thereafter.

 

[Rebels57]

Inconsistency has been his only issue. As previously mentioned, he's shown the work ethic, the hockey iq, and spurts of extraordinary talent. Flyer fans that are setting their expectations low on Patrick simply have no patience.

He should supplant Hayes at 2C by midseason. This is the year he breaks out. 55-60 pts. I fully expect him to become 1C by 2021 and a 70-80 pt scorer for a long time thereafter.

Havent seen anything in the past 2 seasons to warrant this level of optimism.