Value of: Noah Juulsen

[mynamejeff420]

Me too, at the beginning of the 2018-2019 season, with Weber on the injury list, Juulsen was playing as the team 2nd right D and he was pretty good.

In fact, he was one of the reason Mtl wasn't allowing a lot of shots on goal, and he was one of the reason Mtl had such a good start.

Not spectacular, but extremely efficient. Good skating, good composure with the puck, good hockey IQ and physical. The guy rarely makes mistakes.

If he can stay healthy, he's a keeper

From October to December 2018 (Juulsen played his last game on December 17th of that year), Juulsen had the lowest CF% and xGF% out of any Habs defenseman, had the highest rate of CA/60, and the 2nd highest rate of xGA/60. The Habs allowed a ton of shots on goal with him on the ice. He was not the reason Montreal wasn't allowing a lot of shots on goal (or else they wouldn't have had such a high rate of CA with him on the ice).

 

[Habs Halifax]

From October to December 2018 (Juulsen played his last game on December 17th of that year), Juulsen had the lowest CF% and xGF% out of any Habs defenseman, had the highest rate of CA/60, and the 2nd highest rate of xGA/60. The Habs allowed a ton of shots on goal with him on the ice. He was not the reason Montreal wasn't allowing a lot of shots on goal (or else they wouldn't have had such a high rate of CA with him on the ice).

He was playing with Reilly as the reliable stay at home partner so I don't think you understand the stats you posted cause you ignore context. Most rookies get a vet to play with but Habs had Rielly who Juuslen had to shelter defensively. Juulsen has always been a trusted defensive option for his coaches all throughout his development. He's better than what you think... when healthy anyways.

 

[mynamejeff420]

He was playing with Reilly as the reliable stay at home partner so I don't think you understand the stats you posted cause you ignore context. Most rookies get a vet to play with but Habs had Rielly who Juuslen had to shelter defensively. Juulsen has always been a trusted defensive option for his coaches all throughout his development. He's better than what you think... when healthy anyways.

Small sample size either way (~200 minutes with Reilly and ~100 minutes away from him), but Juulsen actually allowed a higher rate of shots against away from Reilly than he did with Reilly. Ironically it was Reilly's defensive results that improved when he was separated from Juulsen (though tbf I'm sure most of that had to do with spending most of that time next to Petry, who is excellent).

The Habs allowed a high rate of shots against with Juulsen on the ice, so it seems odd to credit him for the low rate of shots against. This was a trend that held up no matter who he played with. If he was allowing a high rate of shots against with every regular partner of his, maybe the issue was him.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Small sample size either way (~200 minutes with Reilly and ~100 minutes away from him), but Juulsen actually allowed a higher rate of shots against away from Reilly than he did with Reilly. Ironically it was Reilly's defensive results that improved when he was separated from Juulsen (though tbf I'm sure most of that had to do with spending most of that time next to Petry, who is excellent).

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The Habs allowed a high rate of shots against with Juulsen on the ice, so it seems odd to credit him for the low rate of shots against. This was a trend that held up no matter who he played with. If he was allowing a high rate of shots against with every regular partner of his, maybe the issue was him.

I don't need your help to understand the Habs players. I did not know Edmundson's game that well but I will trust others thank you very much. Especially with your narrative on Juulsen and Chiarot.

 

[Treb]

obviously the Hab fans have higher value than the other 30 fan bases

With reasons. If I was an outside team, I wouldn't give much due to all the uncertainty.

 

[mynamejeff420]

I don't need your help to understand the Habs players. I did not know Edmundson's game that well but I will trust others thank you very much. Especially with your narrative on Juulsen and Chiarot.

It's not a "narrative" so much as it is "a reality of what happens when these players are on the ice". The reality is, their teams experience worse defensive results when they are on the ice, and their partners improve defensively (fewer goals and shots against) when they play with other players. I've watched all of them play a ton, and these results line up well with my eye test.

 

[Habs Halifax]

It's not a "narrative" so much as it is "a reality of what happens when these players are on the ice". The reality is, their teams experience worse defensive results when they are on the ice, and their partners improve defensively (fewer goals and shots against) when they play with other players. I've watched all of them play a ton, and these results line up well with my eye test.

Stats are only part of the equation. You are ignoring context. Saying Chiarot belongs on the bottom paring is proof of that.

 

[mynamejeff420]

Stats are only part of the equation. You are ignoring context. Saying Chiarot belongs on the bottom paring is proof of that.

I'm not ignoring context, a lot of the stats I cite bake context into the equations. If anything, you're ignoring the context. Chiarot played a ton with the top line, and that line covers up for a ton of mistakes defensively. The context (him playing with the top line so much) made him look better than he was. That's why he looked so rough in the playoffs, he no longer had the top line sheltering him.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I'm not ignoring context, a lot of the stats I cite bake context into the equations. If anything, you're ignoring the context. Chiarot played a ton with the top line, and that line covers up for a ton of mistakes defensively. The context (him playing with the top line so much) made him look better than he was. That's why he looked so rough in the playoffs, he no longer had the top line sheltering him.

Chiarot is not just some bottom pairing guy. Keep trying

 

[mynamejeff420]

Chiarot is not just some bottom pairing guy. Keep trying

Try actually watching him play and then claim he's better than a bottom pairing defensemen (trick question, you can't).

 

[Habs Halifax]

Try actually watching him play and then claim he's better than a bottom pairing defensemen (trick question, you can't).

I do watch every single Habs game and Chiarot is not just some bottom pairing guy. I don't trust you on Edmundson based on your evaluation on Chiarot. Sorry bud

The Trident was a huge reason why the Habs beat the Pens. Chiarot played well all season long and in the playoffs. Big boys that play physical and skate well are valuable. @$3.5M? It's far from bad like you are trying to say but failing at it.

Move on. There is no new info you can provide that I don't already know

 

[mynamejeff420]

I do watch every single Habs game and Chiarot is not just some bottom pairing guy. I don't trust you on Edmundson based on your evaluation on Chiarot. Sorry bud

Agree to disagree I guess. I am hesitant to trust your player evaluations now after seeing you claim that Chiarot and Juulsen played well.

 

[samsagat]

In fact, the context was a 21 yo (by the time) filling the skates of Petry on the 2nd pair, against tougher opposition while Weber's injury.

At the beginning of the season he was absolutly great, maybe for 9 games. Then Julien did Julien's things and didn't dress the young guy to put Benn for 2 games...

Juulsen was clearly affected and never been the same afterward, he has kind of lost his confidence.

And then he had his famous injury on the 19th november, getting back for 4 games the 11th of december, and then missed the next 1 year 1/2.

Here's a compilation of his 2018-2019 season:

Juulsen 2018-2019

Date / Shots on goal / game results / Juulsen's +/-

3/10/18 Mtl 36 Tor 26 3-2(OT) Tor Juulsen +1
06/10/18 Mtl 29 Pitts 22 5-1 Mtl Juulsen +1
11/10/18 Mtl 40 LAK 29 3-0 LAK Juulsen +0
13/10/18 Mtl 40 Pitts 28 4-3 (OT) Mtl Juulsen +1
15/10/18 Mtl 35 DET 28 7-3 MTL Juulsen +3
17/10/18 Mtl 23 STL 25 3-2 Mtl Juulsen +1
20/10/18 Mtl 27 Ott 34 4-3 (OT) Sens Juulsen +2
23/10/18 Mtl 40 CGY 23 3-2 Mtl Juulsen +0
25/10/18 Mtl 22 Buf 42 4-3 Buf Juulsen +0
27/10/18 Mtl 23 Bos 33 3-0 Mtl Juulsen (not dressed)
30/10/18 DAL 22 MTL 35 4-1 DAL Juulsen (not dressed)
Juulsen +9 SOGF =292 SOGA = 257

01/11/18 WASH 31 MTL 44 6-4 Mtl Juulsen -2
03/11/18 TB 36 MTL 35 4-1 TB Juulsen -3
05/11/18 NYI 24 MTL 35 4-3 (OT) MTL Juulsen +1
06/11/18 NYR 32 MTL 34 5-3 NYR Juulsen -1
08/11/18 BUF 31 MTL 37 6-5 (OT) BUF Juulsen (not dressed)
10/11/18 LV 38 MTL 27 5-4 MTL Juulsen (not dressed)
13/11/18 EDM 43 MTL 29 6-2 EDM Juulsen -2
15/11/18 CGY 45 MTL 22 3-2 MTL Juulsen +1
17/11/18 VAN 38 MTL 31 3-2 MTL Juulsen +0
19/11/18 WAG 34 MTL 44 5-4 (OT) WASH Juulsen +0 (injury)
Juulsen -6 SOGF = 274 SOGA = 283

11/12/18 Minn 32 MTL 30 7-1 Minn Juulsen +0
13/12/18 MTL 40 CAR 31 6-4 MTL Juulsen +1
15/12/18 MTL 47 OTT 18 5-2 MTL Juulsen +1
17/12/18 MTL 22 BOS 35 4-0 BOS Juulsen +0
Juulsen +2 SOGF = 139 SOGA = 116

Total: Juulsen +5 SOGF = 705 SOGA = 656 SOG differential = +49/21 games
Team results: 11w 7d 3od (2ow)

When not dressed : SOGF = 122 SOGA = 124 SOG differential = -2/4 games
Team results: 2w 1d 1od (0ow)

Games injured
21/11/18 NJ 28 MTL 26 5-2 NJ
23/11/18 BUF 40 MTL 33 3-2 (OT) BUF
24/11/18 BOS 35 MTL 33 3-2 BOS
27/11/18 CAR 22 MTL 49 2-1 CAR
01/12/18 NYR 22 MTL 41 5-2 NYR
02/11/18 SJS 29 MTL 41 3-1 SJS
04/12/18 OTT 30 MTL 41 5-2 MTL
06/12/18 OTT 21 MTL 43 5-2 MTL
09/12/18 CHI 39 MTL 28 3-2 MTL

SOGF = 337 SOGA = 266 SOG differential = +69/9 games
Team results: 3w 5d 1od (0ow)
P.S.: Weber came back from injury the 27/11/18 and it immediatly showed in the SOG(F/A) department.

Total: when injured + not dressed: SOG differential = +67/13 games
Team results: 5w 6d 2od (0ow)