I think the truth was in the middle. Prior to being drafted, he was a huge proponent of hockey USA and excited for hockey improving in certain markets. He posted his excitement about the fact a lot of top first rounders were from certain parts of the USA IIRC. I do believe MT would have left Calgary eventually, but probably originally envisioned doing so in his late 20s or early 30s. The bridge deal and Covid accelerated his plans and he left Calgary in his early/mid 20s which was earlier than intended.
Management is a common factor, but you can't ignore the concept of pandemic fatigue in wanting to be closer to friends and family for Tkachuk and Gaudreau. Gaudreau is 1.5 hours away from his family in Philly. Previously his family was more like 10 hours away door to door or something nuts like that (not just flight, but travel, security, immigration, waiting etc. even for a private jet).
Hanifin might have something like this as well. We just don't know what it is. It might not be purely management or ownership, it's possible it's just the path of least resistance at this point for him.
There were a lot of factors for sure, but you have to consider the impetus, the critical factor behind the moves, not muddying the picture by bringing everything into it to obfuscate the truth. Yes, Gaudreau was American, he was engaged to an American, his parents lived in America, his father had health issues, and covid was making cross border travel difficult - and yet despite all of that, he was willing to sign an 8 year extension at 8.5M in the summer of 21 to stay in Calgary. So what happened?
What happened is that the Flames got cheap and weren't willing to come close to that number. And why was that? Because the shitty coach they hired kept Gaudreau with a broken down Monahan and literally Brett Ritchie and thus, Gaudreau's numbers suffered. But rather than use the 7 years they had to evaluate Gaudreau and the kind of talent he is, they, like the reactive idiots that they are, based everything around his performance under an AHL caliber coach and so lowballed him. Unsurprisingly, he got pissed, bet on himself and bolted when he could.
But what's interesting is that before he left, the Flames were offering him 10.5M a season. Fascinating isn't it - to go from not even willing to offer 8M a year to suddenly opening the vault and begging him to stay. What's the central, most critical factor in that? It's not complicated or hard to understand; it's just grossly incompetent reactive management.
Likewise with Tkachuk:
“There’s a lot that went into it. There’s no single reason why I left. At the end of the day, I wanted to re-evaluate where I’m at, and after talking to a few teams I did that, and kind of came down to that conclusion.
“I didn’t know what my decision was going to be until that talking period.
“It all changed then.”
In other words, had Treliving not been so grossly incompetent and locked up Tkachuk longterm (6 years, 8 years it's doesn't matter) when he had the chance, there's no opportunity for other teams to legally start whispering in his ear telling him they're better opportunities elsewhere. And what was the reason why Tkachuk wasn't locked up longterm? Because Treliving was grossly incompetent and doesn't understand that succeed in the cap world, you have to lock up your elite for as long as possible. Not bridge them so you can waste millions on junk like Troy Brouwer or James Neal.
Look at Brady Tkachuk - everyone of those things you said about Matthew apply to him as well. And yet, he signed for 8 years in Ottawa. Why? Because they overpaid him to stay. And when the cap goes to ~100M in 4 or so years, that contract will be anywhere from fair value to a steal and no one will care anymore.
There are realities of being a relatively small market, Canadian team and most of it boils down to needing to overpay talent to keep them. Treliving & the Flames had no issues with overpaying the likes of Troy Brouwer or James Neal to come to Calgary, but wouldn't stop nickel & diming their stars. That's not an American issue or even a city issue - it's a grossly incompetent management issue. And that's what it all boils down to, regardless of all the little things.
