Noah Cates next contract

[VladDrag]

Yikes. Tippett was our 2nd best forward last year. He was getting 28min/night for a month or so for a reason

There's no other reason other than Torts decides how much time skaters get.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Flashback to the "If Ghost is better than Hagg, why does Hagg get more minutes" arguments.

 

[Striiker]

Yikes. Tippett was our 2nd best forward last year. He was getting 28min/night for a month or so for a reason

I’m sure Torts believes that. Of course it’s not true though.

What’s funny is Tippett only managed to outscore Frost by three points, while Frost spent significant time on the 4th line with unskilled trash. In fact, Tippett missed 4 games and still had more total icetime than Frost.

Meanwhile, Frost is also clearly the better defensive player. So the choice is a) dumb inaccurate volume shooting winger or b) smart/skilled two-way playmaking center? That’s easy.

 

[Curufinwe]

There's no other reason other than Torts decides how much time skaters get.

As discussed recently in another thread, Torts of all sudden decided to make Tippett a regular penalty killer despite objectively terrible results.

In March and April, Frost scored as many points as Tippett despite averaging three fewer minutes per game. 20:46 for Tippett vs 17:52 for Frost.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

And Tippett never got close to averaging 28 minutes. Even if we restrict the sample to just the last month of the season (3/14 to 4/14) he only averaged 19:58 over 16 games. And Frost outscored him while only averaging 17:37.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

Even if we restrict the sample to just April, Tippett averaged 20:18 over 7 games. And Frost scored as many points as him despite only averaging 18:38.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

 

[FlyguyOX]

Flashback to the "If Ghost is better than Hagg, why does Hagg get more minutes" arguments.

Why does every argument resort to the extremes to disprove in here.

By and large, the players that play huge minutes are your best players.

Hate to be this guy, but I'm sure a message board knows who is better than a coach of 2 decades who is around the team 24/7.

 

[Curufinwe]

You don't even know how many minutes this "best player" actually played.

Provorov played the most minutes on the defense and he had a terrible season.

 

[FlyguyOX]

I’m sure Torts believes that. Of course it’s not true though.

What’s funny is Tippett only managed to outscore Frost by three points, while Frost spent significant time on the 4th line with unskilled trash. In fact, Tippett missed 4 games and still had more total icetime than Frost.

Meanwhile, Frost is also clearly the better defensive player. So the choice is a) dumb inaccurate volume shooting winger or b) smart/skilled two-way playmaking center? That’s easy.

Yikes. I thought I was being conservative when I said 2nd best forward on the team, I honestly believe Tippett was the best.

Tippett was better than Frost in every facet of the game. Physicality (board battles, driving the puck to the net), defense (backchecking), skating (faster), offense (generated more offense), play-driving (better chance/quality differential), and drew more penalties.

According to moneypuck, and this matches the eyetest, Tippett led the team in Created xGoals, xGoals of xExpected Rebounds, xRebounds created, On ice Expected goals differential, barely 2nd in high danger xG, SOG/60, 2nd in xG/60, 2nd on the team in takeaways (to Cates), xG.

Nothing by the numbers or eye test said Frost was better.

You don't even know how many minutes this "best player" actually played.

Provorov played the most minutes on the defense and he had a terrible season.

And Risto used to play huge minutes and was terrible, too.

There are always exceptions, but generally it's true.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Why does every argument resort to the extremes to disprove in here.

By and large, the players that play huge minutes are your best players.

Hate to be this guy, but I'm sure a message board knows who is better than a coach of 2 decades who is around the team 24/7.

TOI proves coach bias, not player quality.

Tortorella is a coprolite whose understanding of the game ceased to be relevant when the two line pass rule died. You're leaning on the authority of a guy who prefers Barkov to McDavid and who openly admits he has no clue how offense works anymore.

 

[FlyguyOX]

TOI proves coach bias, not player quality.

Tortorella is a coprolite whose understanding of the game ceased to be relevant when the two line pass rule died. You're leaning on the authority of a guy who prefers Barkov to McDavid and who openly admits he has no clue how offense works anymore.

He created a rover position on D to allow Werenski to thrive. Seems to be adaptable to the modern game while still knowing how to win and the habits needed when the going gets tough come playoff time.

 

[Striiker]

Yikes. I thought I was being conservative when I said 2nd best forward on the team, I honestly believe Tippett was the best.

Tippett was better than Frost in every facet of the game. Physicality (board battles, driving the puck to the net), defense (backchecking), skating (faster), offense (generated more offense), play-driving (better chance/quality differential), and drew more penalties.

According to moneypuck, and this matches the eyetest, Tippett led the team in Created xGoals, xGoals of xExpected Rebounds, xRebounds created, On ice Expected goals differential, barely 2nd in high danger xG, SOG/60, 2nd in xG/60, 2nd on the team in takeaways (to Cates), xG.

Nothing by the numbers or eye test said Frost was better.

Well that just nonsense and you know it. He obviously was not even close to their best forward and he’s certainly not better than Frost in all those areas.

Plus, in addition to numbers always being impacted by usage and linemates, most of those stats are a result of that volume shooting I mentioned. If every time you touch the puck you fling it on net, the numbers will reflect that.

And yet at 5v5 Frost still had the same goal scoring rate as Tippett (0.9 per 60), higher assists per 60, and higher total points per 60. Again, that’s with far worse usage and much better defensive play.

Not to mention playmaking impact is much more sustainable than goal scoring, so when you’re not a very accurate shooter to begin with (like Tippett) and you don’t offer much else outside of goals, when your shooting goes cold you really don’t do much to help the team. That’s why guys like Giroux and Voracek were always more valuable than someone like Simmonds or Hartnell.

 

[VladDrag]

Nothing by the numbers or eye test said Frost was better.

My guy, you don't even know what the numbers mean.

 

[FlyguyOX]

My guy, you don't even know what the numbers mean.

What are you talking about? Why are you gate guarding and resorting to ad hominem?

I don't have to justify my knowledge and puff out my chest, which seems to be the thing to do around here. I understand all the metrics and it's hard to find anything showing Frost was better than Tippett, except if you want to use points like the guy above, but then you're disregarding expected repeatable processes that lead to predictable future value (ie points).

The fact this is even an argument by anyone kind of blows my mind.

 

[Curufinwe]

Nothing by the numbers or eye test said Frost was better.

Nothing except the numbers which said that Frost outscored him at 5on5/ES, and had better significantly GA results at 5on5/ES and especially on the PK where Tippett was a total tire fire.

What are you talking about? Why are you gate guarding and resorting to ad hominem?

I don't have to justify my knowledge and puff out my chest, which seems to be the thing to do around here. I understand all the metrics and it's hard to find anything showing Frost was better than Tippett, except if you want to use points like the guy above, but then you're disregarding expected repeatable processes that lead to predictable future value (ie points).

The fact this is even an argument by anyone kind of blows my mind.

You understand all the metrics but you think Tippett averaged 28 minutes a game over the last month.

 

[FlyguyOX]

Well that just nonsense and you know it. He obviously was not even close to their best forward and he’s certainly not better than Frost in all those areas.

Plus, in addition to numbers always being impacted by usage and linemates, most of those stats are a result of that volume shooting I mentioned. If every time you touch the puck you fling it on net, the numbers will reflect that.

And yet at 5v5 Frost still had the same goal scoring rate as Tippett (0.9 per 60), higher assists per 60, and higher total points per 60. Again, that’s with far worse usage and much better defensive play.

Not to mention playmaking impact is much more sustainable than goal scoring, so when you’re not a very accurate shooter to begin with (like Tippett) and you don’t offer much else outside of goals, when your shooting goes cold you really don’t do much to help the team. That’s why guys like Giroux and Voracek were always more valuable than someone like Simmonds or Hartnell.

I'm not sure you know what you're watching when you watch hockey, if I'm being honest.

Nothing except the numbers which said that Frost outscored him at 5on5/ES, and had better significantly GA results at 5on5/ES and especially on the PK where Tippett was a total tire fire.

Tippett had more xG at 5v5 in totality and per 60 than Frost by a not insignificant margin. I'll take that and bet on Tippett's 9% shot perentage improving.

Lol PK? Ok, I take that and raise you that for Frost being a "skill player" he was a total tire fire on the PP. Horrible. A supposedly skilled player that sucks on PP1 is not good.

Nothing except the numbers which said that Frost outscored him at 5on5/ES, and had better significantly GA results at 5on5/ES and especially on the PK where Tippett was a total tire fire.


You understand all the metrics but you think Tippett averaged 28 minutes a game over the last month.

It was a hyperbolic guesstimate my guy.

 

[Curufinwe]

Tippet had by far the worst 5on5 GA/60 on any regular player on the team, and a cartoonishly high GA/60 in his half hour on the PK, and somehow you think he was better at defense then Frost.

I think you need to stop watching hockey while cranking your Tippett boner so hard. Then maybe you would be less likely to make stuff up like claiming "he was getting 28min/night for a month or so".

 

[Beef Invictus]

He created a rover position on D to allow Werenski to thrive. Seems to be adaptable to the modern game while still knowing how to win and the habits needed when the going gets tough come playoff time.

Oh he did something kinda modern once? A thing other teams had been doing for years? Oh boy. Are we even sure he did that, or did his boss tell him to? He had to be ordered to use Frost more correctly.

He not only made a point of saying he doesn't understand how offense works anymore, he mad a point of saying he wasn't going to bother learning. And that's what his actions so far have shown too.

 

[Curufinwe]

Not just better than Frost, Tippett was actually better than TK who outscored him by 12 points in 17 fewer games.

 

[FlyguyOX]

Tippet had by far the worst 5on5 GA/60 on any regular player on the team, and a cartoonishly high GA/60 in his half hour on the PK, and somehow you think he was better at defense then Frost.

I think you need to stop watching hockey while cranking your Tippett boner so hard. Then maybe you would be less likely to make stuff up like claiming he was "getting 28min/night for a month or so".

He hit 27:40 once proceeded by two 24 minute nights, MY BAD.

In relation to GA, may be something to do with his goalies cartoonish save % of 88 when he's been on the ice. Do you have the same complaint about Konecny who among regular forwards was 2nd highest GA/60 on the team? So defensive value to you is determined by GA/60. Got it. So Frost is the better defensive player which is why he got half the PK time of Tippett. Got it. Great sample size for that 30min there by the way. Truly great stuff

Oh he did something kinda modern once? A thing other teams had been doing for years? Oh boy. Are we even sure he did that, or did his boss tell him to? He had to be ordered to use Frost more correctly.

He not only made a point of saying he doesn't understand how offense works anymore, he mad a point of saying he wasn't going to bother learning. And that's what his actions so far have shown too.

He also is trying to get Cam York to be more offensive and jump into the O-zone and play more aggressively. I don't think it's all bad.

Not just better than Frost, Tippett was actually better than TK who outscored him by 12 points in 17 fewer games.

It's ok, man. Your analysis is limited to points. You'll make it to the big kid table some day.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Does anyone want to bother explaining how xG punishes playmakers?

 

[Kelmitchell2]

What are thinking?

Long term vs short?

I think you obviously want to go medium-long term here, but Evolving Hockey contract projections has that at a slim chance. They think 2x2.2 is most likely, followed by 3x3 and 4x3.6.

Those comps are probably based on a guy like JT Compher who is about to wrap up a 4x3.5 contract. I'd be more than ok with that contract.

I know I'm the outlier on this forum about this, but I'd be ok with giving him the Kotkaniemi contract too which is 8x4.8. That looks like fine/good value for Carolina and Cates should be in the same type of role going forward as Kotka. EH has his projected cap hit for 7 and 8 years as 4.4 and 5.2. 7 Years could be the sweet spot. Plus then it ends when he's 31 and that whole contract he'll be teaching new young guys how to play the game the right way.

I signed him for 6 years by 1.5 million on my gm mode in nhl 23, so clearly I'm a competent gm, I also trade for Lukas riechel and signed him 8 years by 1.9, not to toot My own horn

 

[VladDrag]

What are you talking about? Why are you gate guarding and resorting to ad hominem?

I don't have to justify my knowledge and puff out my chest, which seems to be the thing to do around here. I understand all the metrics and it's hard to find anything showing Frost was better than Tippett, except if you want to use points like the guy above, but then you're disregarding expected repeatable processes that lead to predictable future value (ie points).

The fact this is even an argument by anyone kind of blows my mind.

I've re-written this post about 3 times, and I'm just going to leave it at this:

1. I'm telling you that you don't understand the data your citing as well as you think you do. I could explain it further to you, as I did earlier this year. However, you disregarded that lesson and tried the same argument again(Cates' linemates). I have a feeling you're not going to listen to what I say, or perhaps not fully grasp the concept, anyways.

2. The RTSS dataset is extremely limited in providing player vs player evaluations. One player with an xGF higher than another player does not mean the former player is better (More on this later).

3. You and I have a significant difference in opinion on what matters for a hockey player, and we'll never see eye to eye. That's fine, but don't use an appeal to authority to prove your point.
3a. I should also mention that I did like Tippett's season and think he's a good middle six winger. I think he ultimately stunts out there because there's not much else to his game other than powering through the rush. He's got a very powerful stride and strong legs, but once the puck is in the offensive zone he can no longer use his plus athleticism and his head doesn't process as fast. He's not dumb by any means. This is where Frost is a much better player. He's much more cerebral than Tippett.

Does anyone want to bother explaining how xG punishes playmakers?

I'll give an overview of the xG model so it makes sense.

An expected goal is a percentage, or likelihood, that a goal would be scored on any specific shot. Most of the models only complete this calculation on fenwick attempts (that is unblocked shot attempts...so shots that miss the net, saved by the goalie and goals). Each entity that generates an expected goal value for an individual shot does by with the same input parameters (RTSS dataset). However, those input parameters are weighted differently depending on the specific model.

Often when discussing xG, the thing that gets overlooked most often is the limitations of the RTSS dataset. The RTSS dataset is the play by play data that the NHL presents to the public. They track certain events such as the type of event (shot, turnover, takeaway, save, hit etc.), time the event happened, geographic location of the event, etc. Any model that uses the RTSS dataset is known as a public model, regardless if you need to pay for it or not. There are private datasets that track other events, but those cost an arm and a leg, and are generally only reserved for NHL teams.

The RTSS dataset does not include tracking for passing, which is a huge part of hockey. So, the public xG models miss this entire portion of the game.

As an example, there was turnover in the NZ and the result is a 2v0 for team A. Player 1 takes the puck to the net and passes it to Player 2 who has an open 1 timer. However, the puck hops over the stick and the result is there is no shot. There is not xG from that scenario at all. Another example is that a defenseman get the puck along the boards and fires an unscreened wrist shot into the goalies chest from the blueline. That will register some xG value.

Now, run both of those scenarios 100 times, the former scenario (the 2v0) will score more goals than the unscreened wrist shot from the blueline. There are some caveats here, and I'm happy to add those to this discussion, but I'm just going to leave it here for now.

**I didn't re-read any of this so there may be some typos**

 

[Striiker]

I'm not sure you know what you're watching when you watch hockey, if I'm being honest.

You’re probably right. I’m an idiot.

But remind me real quick, which of us said Tippett was our best forward last year?

Was that you or me?

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

Yikes

 

[Curufinwe]

In relation to GA, may be something to do with his goalies cartoonish save % of 88 when he's been on the ice. Do you have the same complaint about Konecny who among regular forwards was 2nd highest GA/60 on the team? So defensive value to you is determined by GA/60. Got it. So Frost is the better defensive player which is why he got half the PK time of Tippett. Got it. Great sample size for that 30min there by the way. Truly great stuff

Blaming the goalie over an entire season is funny. He played in front of the same goalies as every other forward on the team. TK's defensive goal results were also not good, as he was focused all season on being the team's main offensive producer. Something he did far more effectively than Tippett despite your absurd claim for Tippett being the team's best forward.

Frost got half the PK time of Tippett because Torts is a ridiculous dinosaur of a coach who can't see past stereotypes from 20 years ago. It's OK for you to just admit that Tippett not only looked awful, but had astoundingly bad results in his time on the PK.

Spending money on hockey stats doesn't make you a big kid. You don't even understand the data you paid for and are getting schooled over and over again by someone who does. You would have been better off paying for some statistics classes.

 

[Columbus Hockey Dad]

Tippet had by far the worst 5on5 GA/60 on any regular player on the team, and a cartoonishly high GA/60 in his half hour on the PK, and somehow you think he was better at defense then Frost.

He was even with TK and ADA...but continue...