Noah Cates next contract

[FlyguyOX]

TK performed significantly better with Frost.

Farabee didn't have a garbage year at ES. His production was much better than Cates'. 1.92 P/60 at 5on5 vs 1.37 for Cates.

Cates performed significantly better with Tippett

 

[Curufinwe]

Can we go back to the part where you claimed Farabee was terrible all year?

Farabee produced better at 5on5 than Tippett and everyone else except TK and Frost. And his GF% was only behind JVR and Cates out of all the regular forwards.

 

[VladDrag]

Does he need to be much better offensively to still be worth it as a shutdown center in the middle six?

He will need to be better, there is no doubt about that. A 'shutdown' center is not worth 4 or 5 million dollars a year if he cannot play on the other side of the rink. That's basically what Patrick Brown's impact is. Yes, he's a winger, but you get the idea...I guy who is good defensively and a hole offensively.

Also the "great deployment with konecny and farabee" doesn't really work when Farabee is absolutely terrible all year, look at Cates QoT xGAR/60, one of the worst on the team.

We had this conversation earlier in the year. I told you then QoT xGAR/60 is a combination of BOTH offensive and defensive xGAR.

Sure, Farabee's defensive xGAR is awful, so bad, in fact, that it tanks his overall numbers. But his offensive impacts this year were awesome - 73st percentile. And what were we talking about? Offensive chance creation. If you're willing to pay money for a database, you should try to understand what each metric means. I'm not saying that to be an a-hole, but it's the second time we've had the exact same discussion.

I think the point of his teammates is overstated ITT and the point of opponents he was matched up with understated.

In hockey using the RTSS dataset, there is no way to completely individualize net impact. You can try your best, which is why there are lots of models using this dataset. It all comes back to the same conclusion that teammates matter - it is that simple. There are too many studies that say that.

I'm trying to think of a comparable and Cirelli comes to mind in that his offense has never really come around, but still valued greatly on PK and defensively.

I think, so far anyways, Anthony Cirelli has shown a lot more offensive ability than Noah Cates. Sure, Cirelli is very good all around player who is the definition of a secondary scorer. He scored at a 55 point pace during his 22-year old season. Granted he played with very good talent, that year, but Cates hasn't shown that ability during his 24-year old season and with good offensive linemates.

Again, I'm not saying he can't do it, but I don't think he's shown enough to go 7-8 years for 4-5 million dollars.

 

[TB87]

His QoT was really high this past season and he still didn’t produce offensively all that much. Especially at 5v5. He’s genuinely very good defensively.


I’d bridge him. 2 years, 2M AAV.

 

[Beef Invictus]

They have 2 of the best forwards in the game. Scoring. And year after year it gets them nowhere because the defensive structure and awareness is garbage.

Cup teams are made off of smart bets like Slavin and Pesce. Those guys produced 3rd pair offense, too. Slavin had a season of 20,34,30pts before he signed his deal. Pesce 16,20,19.

Gourde not a big points guy but his little things and defensive impact was definitely felt in the playoffs as well

It gets them nowhere because those two guys can't play 60 minutes.

If you think Slavin and Pesce are 3rd pair defenders your understanding of dman production is broken.

Gourde produces quite a lot actually. He's a hell of a lot more than a defender.

Every one of those guys you've mentioned is a substantial offensive upgrade compared to what we have. Cates is nothing like them.

 

[Curufinwe]

Gourde averages 50 points per 82 games in his NHL career.

 

[Striiker]

Giving Cates an 8 year contract based on “playing the right way” (translation: is horrible at the most important part of hockey) is exactly what Fletcher would do. So don’t do that. Obviously.

You don’t give bottom six players contracts like that if you want to build a decent team. People can jerk off to his defensive numbers all they want, but his overall impact (which is what actually matters to people who understand the sport and don’t strictly fetishize one part of it) is far lessened by just how useless he is offensively, even when gifted a full season in the backpack of our best offensive players.

Give him 2 or 3 years and then flip him to a dumb GM for picks. He does nothing to help this team build a contender 5-10 years down the road.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Right or wrong, teams still pay for points. Why you would want to go max term for a guy that didn’t produce like a top of the lineup player on this team and also doesn’t have a great track record of production is beyond me.

Bridge and keep the cap flexibility for other opportunities in the short term. If he proves you wrong, you gladly pay up.

…but remember who has a say in hockey related decisions now. His biggest fan.

 

[FlyguyOX]

He will need to be better, there is no doubt about that. A 'shutdown' center is not worth 4 or 5 million dollars a year if he cannot play on the other side of the rink. That's basically what Patrick Brown's impact is. Yes, he's a winger, but you get the idea...I guy who is good defensively and a hole offensively.



We had this conversation earlier in the year. I told you then QoT xGAR/60 is a combination of BOTH offensive and defensive xGAR.

Sure, Farabee's defensive xGAR is awful, so bad, in fact, that it tanks his overall numbers. But his offensive impacts this year were awesome - 73st percentile. And what were we talking about? Offensive chance creation. If you're willing to pay money for a database, you should try to understand what each metric means. I'm not saying that to be an a-hole, but it's the second time we've had the exact same discussion.


In hockey using the RTSS dataset, there is no way to completely individualize net impact. You can try your best, which is why there are lots of models using this dataset. It all comes back to the same conclusion that teammates matter - it is that simple. There are too many studies that say that.



I think, so far anyways, Anthony Cirelli has shown a lot more offensive ability than Noah Cates. Sure, Cirelli is very good all around player who is the definition of a secondary scorer. He scored at a 55 point pace during his 22-year old season. Granted he played with very good talent, that year, but Cates hasn't shown that ability during his 24-year old season and with good offensive linemates.

Again, I'm not saying he can't do it, but I don't think he's shown enough to go 7-8 years for 4-5 million dollars.

I understand the metrics but appreciate the advice. I was talking about whether he had quality linemates, not whether they were good at offense. There's a difference.

I would've chosen a better comp for Cates if I had thought of one. Of course Cirelli has produced more offense than Cates, in his rookie year on a terrible team, has.

That's fine to say you need to see more offensive upside to justify the extra years and cap hit. That thought process is based in "he doesn't have much more offense to give so he won't end up being much more expensive on his next contract anyways", otherwise why take the cheaper years now just to extend once he's justified a higher cap hit by getting more pointz.

We're a tanking team anyways, so what's the hurt in taking the risk on the upside just to penny pinch during tanking years? That's part of my though process.

I moreso think Frost should be on a short bridge or traded while his value is higher at the end of last season

It gets them nowhere because those two guys can't play 60 minutes.

If you think Slavin and Pesce are 3rd pair defenders your understanding of dman production is broken.

Gourde produces quite a lot actually. He's a hell of a lot more than a defender.

Every one of those guys you've mentioned is a substantial offensive upgrade compared to what we have. Cates is nothing like them.

In their contract year before they got their contracts, that was their production since we're all so concerned with points ITT.

Gourde averages 50 points per 82 games in his NHL career.

Cates just missed 40 in his rookie year on a terrible team playing a position he hasn't played in years.

 

[FlyguyOX]

Giving Cates an 8 year contract based on “playing the right way” (translation: is horrible at the most important part of hockey) is exactly what Fletcher would do. So don’t do that. Obviously.

You don’t give bottom six players contracts like that if you want to build a decent team. People can jerk off to his defensive numbers all they want, but his overall impact (which is what actually matters to people who understand the sport and don’t strictly fetishize one part of it) is far lessened by just how useless he is offensively, even when gifted a full season in the backpack of our best offensive players.

Give him 2 or 3 years and then flip him to a dumb GM for picks. He does nothing to help this team build a contender 5-10 years down the road.

I remember when everyone laughed at the Tanev and Laughton contracts, too.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I understand the metrics but appreciate the advice. I was talking about whether he had quality linemates, not whether they were good at offense. There's a difference.

I would've chosen a better comp for Cates if I had thought of one. Of course Cirelli has produced more offense than Cates, in his rookie year on a terrible team, has.

That's fine to say you need to see more offensive upside to justify the extra years and cap hit. That thought process is based in "he doesn't have much more offense to give so he won't end up being much more expensive on his next contract anyways", otherwise why take the cheaper years now just to extend once he's justified a higher cap hit by getting more pointz.

We're a tanking team anyways, so what's the hurt in taking the risk on the upside just to penny pinch during tanking years? That's part of my though process.

I moreso think Frost should be on a short bridge or traded while his value is higher at the end of last season


In their draft years before they got their contracts, that was their production since we're all so concerned with points ITT.


Cates just missed 40 in his rookie year on a terrible team playing a position he hasn't played in years.

You're talking about pre-NHL production now??????

 

[Beef Invictus]

I remember when everyone laughed at the Tanev and Laughton contracts, too.

The Laughton contract is an absurd term. That's still being laughed at, and honestly he wasn't too great last season. And I like Laughton.

 

[FlyguyOX]

You're talking about pre-NHL production now??????

My bad my head was in different places, I meant their contract extension year. Edited OP

The Laughton contract is an absurd term. That's still being laughed at, and honestly he wasn't too great last season. And I like Laughton.

But we're all looking for a late 1st or early 2nd back for him in a trade

 

[Beef Invictus]

My bad my head was in different places, I meant their contract extension year. Edited OP

OK but you're still comparing a forward to dmen, which doesn't work. And they were really clearly better than 3rd pair dudes. Cates is not clearly better than bottom six quality.

 

[FlyguyOX]

OK but you're still comparing a forward to dmen, which doesn't work. And they were really clearly better than 3rd pair dudes.

Was just trying to show an example of the bet with a medium-long term contract for a player who didn't pop with scoring regardless of position.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Was just trying to show an example of the bet with a medium-long term contract for a player who didn't pop with scoring regardless of position.

But as per my edit, that duo was clearly not just a couple 3rd pair guys. Cates isn't clearly better than bottom six.

 

[FlyguyOX]

But as per my edit, that duo was clearly not just a couple 3rd pair guys. Cates isn't clearly better than bottom six.

So you wouldn't come around to a 4x3.5mm contract that Lars Eller signed in 14-15 when he was 25yo? He had yet to score 30pts in a season before that extension. I'd say Cates is already better than Eller was at roughly the same age as that extension. With the adjusted cap hit that would be a 4x4 deal probably. That would be the deal for a very good 3C/play-driving complementary 2W in Cates. I'd be ok with that.

 

[GapToothedWonder]

See: Oilers.

Good article the other week on the athletic and how above average offense, below average defense teams almost never win a cup. Most cup winners are above average in both

What about below average offense and above average defense?

 

[VladDrag]

I understand the metrics but appreciate the advice. I was talking about whether he had quality linemates, not whether they were good at offense. There's a difference.

A large portion of this conversation has been about Cates' ability to produce offense. I feel I need to reiterate this once more, but I am unsure of his ability to progress his offensive ability. What I do know is that Cates was given the best offensive wingers but still failed to have positive offensive metrics. You responded directly to me by saying, "great deployment with konecny and farabee" doesn't really work when Farabee is absolutely terrible all year, look at Cates QoT xGAR/60, one of the worst on the team." You've tried this argument before with me, so forgive me if I don't 100% believe you there.

That's fine to say you need to see more offensive upside to justify the extra years and cap hit. That thought process is based in "he doesn't have much more offense to give so he won't end up being much more expensive on his next contract anyways", otherwise why take the cheaper years now just to extend once he's justified a higher cap hit by getting more pointz.

We're a tanking team anyways, so what's the hurt in taking the risk on the upside just to penny pinch during tanking years? That's part of my though process.

Here's where I'm coming from. I think Cates is a very good bottom 6 left winger/center. I don't think he has a whole lot of offensive ability. I think the chances of him scoring more than 38 points next season are slim; however there are assumptions based on that projection. That includes that Torts continues to play him at center, and that he will not have the same wingers that he had this season (TK and Farabee). I assume that Couts will get the best wingers and hopefully Frost gets good deployment as well.

I guess I'm willing to bet against Cates' offensive explosion. Sure, it might happen, and of course I would love to see him turn into a 60-point center. But what have you seen from him that suggests he's ready to take 2-3 large steps forward? Keep in mind, he's 24, he's not 21. It's an older prospect.

I moreso think Frost should be on a short bridge or traded while his value is higher at the end of last season

I think the best trade candidate based on last season would be Tippett. A former top-10 draft pick who has reinvented himself, has a cheap cap hit for next season, and has 2 or 3 more years of control after that is very valuable. But, I'm okay with trading basically anyone on the roster in the right move.

I think of all the notable RFAs that need contracts this year (Frost, Cates, York), Frost is the most likely candidate that should be extended long-term. He's the one who had very good ES xGAR offensive numbers, not quite as good GAR numbers (meaning he was very good at chance creation but did not see as many results), and was completely stifled on the PP.

But ultimately, this is all a guessing game. There's no guarantee that any of these players progress. All I want the team to do is put themselves in positions to minimize the chance of negative outcomes and maximize their chance of positive outcomes.

 

[Curufinwe]

Cates just missed 40 in his rookie year on a terrible team playing a position he hasn't played in years.

Cates was also gifted regular PP1 time and often got the best offensive linemates available at ES. Something he wouldn't get anywhere else.

if Couturier is healthy, Cates is going to have significantly less offensive opportunity going forward.

 

[FlyguyOX]

What about below average offense and above average defense?

LA was the example of the team that did that, I think

 

[Beef Invictus]

So you wouldn't come around to a 4x3.5mm contract that Lars Eller signed in 14-15 when he was 25yo? He had yet to score 30pts in a season before that extension. I'd say Cates is already better than Eller was at roughly the same age as that extension. With the adjusted cap hit that would be a 4x4 deal probably. That would be the deal for a very good 3C/play-driving complementary 2W in Cates. I'd be ok with that.

4x3.5 is not the same as 8 years. Players who already have a low ceiling are a huge risk for long-term signings. And no, I wouldn't have thought that deal wise. Montreal isn't exactly well managed, though.

 

[FlyguyOX]

A large portion of this conversation has been about Cates' ability to produce offense. I feel I need to reiterate this once more, but I am unsure of his ability to progress his offensive ability. What I do know is that Cates was given the best offensive wingers but still failed to have positive offensive metrics. You responded directly to me by saying, "great deployment with konecny and farabee" doesn't really work when Farabee is absolutely terrible all year, look at Cates QoT xGAR/60, one of the worst on the team." You've tried this argument before with me, so forgive me if I don't 100% believe you there.


Here's where I'm coming from. I think Cates is a very good bottom 6 left winger/center. I don't think he has a whole lot of offensive ability. I think the chances of him scoring more than 38 points next season are slim; however there are assumptions based on that projection. That includes that Torts continues to play him at center, and that he will not have the same wingers that he had this season (TK and Farabee). I assume that Couts will get the best wingers and hopefully Frost gets good deployment as well.

I guess I'm willing to bet against Cates' offensive explosion. Sure, it might happen, and of course I would love to see him turn into a 60-point center. But what have you seen from him that suggests he's ready to take 2-3 large steps forward? Keep in mind, he's 24, he's not 21. It's an older prospect.

I think the best trade candidate based on last season would be Tippett. A former top-10 draft pick who has reinvented himself, has a cheap cap hit for next season, and has 2 or 3 more years of control after that is very valuable. But, I'm okay with trading basically anyone on the roster in the right move.

I think of all the notable RFAs that need contracts this year (Frost, Cates, York), Frost is the most likely candidate that should be extended long-term. He's the one who had very good ES xGAR offensive numbers, not quite as good GAR numbers (meaning he was very good at chance creation but did not see as many results), and was completely stifled on the PP.

But ultimately, this is all a guessing game. There's no guarantee that any of these players progress. All I want the team to do is put themselves in positions to minimize the chance of negative outcomes and maximize their chance of positive outcomes.

I'm, again, in the minority when it comes to Frost but I won't go down that rabbit hole ITT lol, but I disagree on long-terming him. I think he'll be relegated to 3C quickly once we have more talent in the pipeline, and he won't be successful in that kind of role.

The only thing I have against Tippett is his age in relation to our rebuild, otherwise I loved his game last season and would like to keep him.

 

[BernieParent]

Cates and Frost are in the same place for me: great season with good promise, now show me that again next season. I'd offer them the same 2-3-year contract at about $2 million per.

 

[VladDrag]

I'm, again, in the minority when it comes to Frost but I won't go down that rabbit hole ITT lol, but I disagree on long-terming him. I think he'll be relegated to 3C quickly once we have more talent in the pipeline, and he won't be successful in that kind of role.

The only thing I have against Tippett is his age in relation to our rebuild, otherwise I loved his game last season and would like to keep him.

I am not saying that I would extend Frost, but to me he's the most likely candidate who will produce at a higher clip.

I'm not sure why Frost would be relegated to 3C. Last year he produced as a top line offensive forward, and again he wasn't given great wingers. It makes no sense if you believe Cates can be better offensively, but Frost can't be. I think they both can be better, but I think Frost has another gear and Cates only has another half step.