No Man's Land for the last 20 years

[S Bah]

My Christmas wish here is that the Habs will soon make the playoff's a No Man's Land for the rest of the NHL.

 

[rafal majka]

This is exactly what the thread is about. Stepping backwards to rebuild properly by drafting high. I would sacrifice Markov if we have a chance to take Sam Reinhart or Aaron Ekblad or Connor McDavid.

How long a period of pathetic play do the Habs need to rebuild? Pittsburgh-like 5? Chicago-like 9? TML-like 50?

 

[Lshap]

How long a period of pathetic play do the Habs need to rebuild? Pittsburgh-like 5? Chicago-like 9? TML-like 50?

We need a minimum 50 years of rebuilding. Remember -- it's really about adjusting our Cup window so that it forever remains four or five years in the future. Trade for picks, 'cause picks give us hope, and hoping to become a contender one day is easier than acting like a contender today. Who needs the pressure of big trades and gambles? Why risk the heartache of imperfection? Habs lose a couple of games -- hit the rebuild button.

 

[Corncob]

This is exactly what the thread is about. Stepping backwards to rebuild properly by drafting high. I would sacrifice Markov if we have a chance to take Sam Reinhart or Aaron Ekblad or Connor McDavid.

The problem with this is (a) the whole 'omg must have this years shiny new thing mentality' is faulty. What's so good about Reinhart or Ekblad? If we got one of them, in three years time you'd just want to ditch them to tank for whoever the new shiny thing is then. (b) See Edmonton. No point getting young talent if you don't have the veterens to mentor them and a successful culture to develop them in (c) to actually get bad enough to draft that high you'd have to get rid of half the team ie. Price, Subban, Plekanec, etc and immerse the other young talent we already have (Galchenyuk, Beaulieu, Tinordi in a loser culture for two or three years that could well affect their development.

 

[rafal majka]

We need a minimum 50 years of rebuilding. Remember -- it's really about adjusting our Cup window so that it forever remains four or five years in the future. Trade for picks, 'cause picks give us hope, and hoping to become a contender one day is easier than acting like a contender today. Who needs the pressure of big trades and gambles? Why risk the heartache of imperfection? Habs lose a couple of games -- hit the rebuild button.

Just put out 6 stockings for the wife and kids.

I think that now, with the cap, playoff success is a crapshoot - where the dice are weighted in favour of a few very good teams (Chicago, San Jose, St. Louis, Boston, etc). I think that MB has the right idea: build through the draft and supplement through trades and FAs. That part is not rocket science (and the Habs have one of the best draft records in recent years). The Red Wings have been the NHL's most successful franchise since the early '90s. Here's why:

Ken Holland says the plan (to build through the draft) went through many phases and revisions over the years, some because of learning pains and others because of the changing economics of the NHL, which work against old-style dynasties. The Red Wings, for example, were always among the NHL’s biggest spenders before the salary cap was implemented after the 2004-05 lockout. While some of that money was spent on a few pricey free agents, most went to keeping Steve Yzerman, Sergei Fedorov and Nicklas Lidstrom, stars the Red Wings drafted.

The goal was to draft and develop players who would form the team’s core. And since the Red Wings were good enough never to have a high pick in the NHL entry draft (their last top 10 pick was Martin Lapointe, taken 10th overall in 1991), their prospects would undergo a careful grooming process in which almost all of them spent years with the Wings’ farm team.

“You need a core,†said Holland, who was promoted to GM in 1997. “In order to be a good team year-in and year-out you need a core group of four to six players who really drive your team.â€

The Habs have a core of Price, Subban, Galchenyuk, Pacioretty, Gallagher and the veteran presence of Markov and Plekanec. They have a weak D that would only get worse if Markov was moved.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/spor...-to-build-a-dynasty/article12147433/?page=all

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

We need a minimum 50 years of rebuilding. Remember -- it's really about adjusting our Cup window so that it forever remains four or five years in the future. Trade for picks, 'cause picks give us hope, and hoping to become a contender one day is easier than acting like a contender today. Who needs the pressure of big trades and gambles? Why risk the heartache of imperfection? Habs lose a couple of games -- hit the rebuild button.

I see what you're saying, but you can't just try to "go for it" out of frustration. The conditions have to be right.

If we'd made the right offseason moves, I'd be onside with you. But have you been watching the team lately? Even on that win streak we were getting outplayed.

The core is there. The foundation for a winner is there (at least going forward.) All we need to do now is not **** things up. Dealing away guys like Bealieu or Tinordi is a big risk. You better have a team capable of winning something if you do it. And I don't think we're there. Our D is thin and we're too small up front. Too many passengers right now.

We still look like a team in transition to me...

 

[Sorinth]

I see what you're saying, but you can't just try to "go for it" out of frustration. The conditions have to be right.

If we'd made the right offseason moves, I'd be onside with you. But have you been watching the team lately? Even on that win streak we were getting outplayed.

The core is there. The foundation for a winner is there (at least going forward.) All we need to do now is not **** things up. Dealing away guys like Bealieu or Tinordi is a big risk. You better have a team capable of winning something if you do it. And I don't think we're there. Our D is thin and we're too small up front. Too many passengers right now.

We still look like a team in transition to me...

We do have a great core but we have to do more than simply not screw things up. Expecting to become a contender simply through internal development is a recipe for staying in "no man's land". When our prospects develop and replace outgoing vets, we haven't actually gained anything unless those prospects end up significantly better which is also a big risk. For example even if Markov has lost a step, he's still arguably a top-15/20 defenceman in the league, hoping a guy like Beaulieu not only matches that but surpasses that seems unlikely. So you are taking risks either way.

I think we are at a place where we should start being aggressive and going after top-end players through trades/signings. Even if the price is high, I think we only need that one player to put us over the top. Now since the price is high you have to be very smart/patient about who you target but spinning our tires with guys like Briere is the worst thing to do. We should have signed nobody and kept our cap space so that are trading options aren't limited by salary.

 

[JLP]

The team we have now seems built to make the playoffs, but it's not a team likely to advance in the playoffs.

 

[Lshap]

I see what you're saying, but you can't just try to "go for it" out of frustration. The conditions have to be right.

If we'd made the right offseason moves, I'd be onside with you. But have you been watching the team lately? Even on that win streak we were getting outplayed.

The core is there. The foundation for a winner is there (at least going forward.) All we need to do now is not **** things up. Dealing away guys like Bealieu or Tinordi is a big risk. You better have a team capable of winning something if you do it. And I don't think we're there. Our D is thin and we're too small up front. Too many passengers right now.

We still look like a team in transition to me...

We both agree the foundation is there. And with a spectacular talent like Subban and the potentially best goalie we've had in ages in Price, what other conditions are we waiting for? These guys will be 30 by the time the 2014 picks reach the NHL, Markov will be at the end and Pleks will be past his prime. Time ain't standing still. Does anyone believe the next round of prospects will become better than the guys we currently have? Screw some hypothetical future with imaginary draft picks who magically become stars -- Montreal is an established winning team right now. We're way beyond thinking like losers and being in a rebuild. Once the team is good enough -- which I think we are -- it's time to supplement our strengths, not retreat around our weaknesses.

To be clear, I don't want to trade Tinordi or Beaulieu. Those guys will be a vast improvement on our current bottom pair and hopefully keep improving from there. We also have some really good 3rd line forwards coming up in our prospect pool (possibly 2nd line if we're lucky). Our bottom six forward depth looks amazing. What we don't have is enough top-six scoring talent. Aside from Pacioretty, we lack a bonafide top-line winger, either on our roster or in our system. The hole at the top has been obvious the past three weeks when the team couldn't score. As you said, even our wins looked weak, and it came down to weak scoring.

Team systems can make a mediocre defense strong, but no team system can break a game open with a key goal. That's individual scoring talent. That kind of top-end talent is what we desperately need, and I don't think waiting for picks will make that player materialize. The rest of the check-list looks pretty good: Goalie? Check. Defense? Semi-check, awaiting developing players in Hamilton. 3rd and 4th lines? Check. Top-six forwards? Czech. Plus one Russian/American plus one American. Still thin after Pleks, Pacioretty and Galchenyuk.

Yeah, don't get me started on the Briere contract and the solid winger we could have afforded with that money. But as I've previously posted, I will almost guarantee Bergevin has learned from his mistake and will address the team's real need with his next moves. If that takes trading away a first-round pick or a good roster player, sign me up, as long we get the right guy in return. Time to leverage the future for a better present, because I think we're closer than most people realize.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

We both agree the foundation is there. And with a spectacular talent like Subban and the potentially best goalie we've had in ages in Price, what other conditions are we waiting for? These guys will be 30 by the time the 2014 picks reach the NHL, Markov will be at the end and Pleks will be past his prime. Time ain't standing still. Does anyone believe the next round of prospects will become better than the guys we currently have? Screw some hypothetical future with imaginary draft picks who magically become stars -- Montreal is an established winning team right now. We're way beyond thinking like losers and being in a rebuild. Once the team is good enough -- which I think we are -- it's time to supplement our strengths, not retreat around our weaknesses.

To be clear, I don't want to trade Tinordi or Beaulieu. Those guys will be a vast improvement on our current bottom pair and hopefully keep improving from there. We also have some really good 3rd line forwards coming up in our prospect pool (possibly 2nd line if we're lucky). Our bottom six forward depth looks amazing. What we don't have is enough top-six scoring talent. Aside from Pacioretty, we lack a bonafide top-line winger, either on our roster or in our system. The hole at the top has been obvious the past three weeks when the team couldn't score. As you said, even our wins looked weak, and it came down to weak scoring.

Team systems can make a mediocre defense strong, but no team system can break a game open with a key goal. That's individual scoring talent. That kind of top-end talent is what we desperately need, and I don't think waiting for picks will make that player materialize. The rest of the check-list looks pretty good: Goalie? Check. Defense? Semi-check, awaiting developing players in Hamilton. 3rd and 4th lines? Check. Top-six forwards? Czech. Plus one Russian/American plus one American. Still thin after Pleks, Pacioretty and Galchenyuk.

Yeah, don't get me started on the Briere contract and the solid winger we could have afforded with that money. But as I've previously posted, I will almost guarantee Bergevin has learned from his mistake and will address the team's real need with his next moves. If that takes trading away a first-round pick or a good roster player, sign me up, as long we get the right guy in return. Time to leverage the future for a better present, because I think we're closer than most people realize.

Is a big winger going to do it? Let's say we land him. Does that make us contenders? I don't think it does. Not with the D we have and not with the smurfs.

And that's the problem... we're not just one piece away. We need a roster turnover with DD, Briere, Bouillion, Murray and others being given one way tickets to Palookaville. You saw us vs the West this year... absolutely outplayed in almost every game we had.

So if dealing a first doesn't do it... that means guys like Maccarron, Fucale, Tinordi, Beaulieu... players other teams will actually want. And I don't think I'd want to give those guys up if we aren't going to win a cup by doing it.

As for MB learning his lesson well, wtf did he need to get Briere to learn this lesson? To me that's a huge red flag. How the **** could he be so stupid? I hope he learned from it but why did he have to make that mistake to begin with?

 

[rafal majka]

It's ironic that there is such disdain for hockey-metrics here yet the metrics all pointed to Briere and Murray being huge mistakes before they even donned a Habs jersey.

 

[hototogisu]

It's ironic that there is such disdain for hockey-metrics here yet the metrics all pointed to Briere and Murray being huge mistakes before they even donned a Habs jersey.

I don't think anyone needed metrics to figure out that Briere would be a bad fit. And Murray is a 7th defenseman doing the job of a 7th defenseman, hard to call that a "huge mistake".

 

[rafal majka]

I don't think anyone needed metrics to figure out that Briere would be a bad fit. And Murray is a 7th defenseman doing the job of a 7th defenseman, hard to call that a "huge mistake".

Former Shark Update: Montreal has now been outshot 115-74 and outscored 12-1 with Douglas Murray on the ice at even-strength this season.

Murray is a pylon who should never have been signed in the first place.

http://www.allaboutthehabs.ca/needs-defense-eye-opening-numbers-crankshaft/

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Former Shark Update: Montreal has now been outshot 115-74 and outscored 12-1 with Douglas Murray on the ice at even-strength this season.

As I suspected, Murray is borderline NHL quality. The hits are great but man that guy just can't play hockey.

 

[rafal majka]

As I suspected, Murray is borderline NHL quality. The hits are great but man that guy just can't play hockey.

Dec. 23 update:

Habs have been outscored 14-1 with Murray on.

Without him on they’ve outscored teams 95-70.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Dec. 23 update:


Habs have been outscored 14-1 with Murray on.

Without him on they’ve outscored teams 95-70.

Horrible. Of course it doesn't help that MT decided to come up with genius idea of playing him with Bouillion most of the time...

 

[Lshap]

Is a big winger going to do it? Let's say we land him. Does that make us contenders? I don't think it does. Not with the D we have and not with the smurfs.

And that's the problem... we're not just one piece away. We need a roster turnover with DD, Briere, Bouillion, Murray and others being given one way tickets to Palookaville. You saw us vs the West this year... absolutely outplayed in almost every game we had.

So if dealing a first doesn't do it... that means guys like Maccarron, Fucale, Tinordi, Beaulieu... players other teams will actually want. And I don't think I'd want to give those guys up if we aren't going to win a cup by doing it.

As for MB learning his lesson well, wtf did he need to get Briere to learn this lesson? To me that's a huge red flag. How the **** could he be so stupid? I hope he learned from it but why did he have to make that mistake to begin with?

Most of your wish-list will happen organically within the next year.

Subtractions: Bouillon and Murray will likely be gone, Briere's ice time will be reduced or eliminated (though that %$#$%* salary may remain), Gionta will be gone and DD will rise or sink according to actual performance, which is fine.

Additions: One or two of Tinordi/Beaulieu/Pateryn join the club, making our D bigger and (hopefully) better. Galchenyuk gains a year of experience.

Status quo: The rest of our team remains in their prime, between 22 and 32 (assuming Gionta's traded), except for Markov, the oldest at 36.

Then we need to add scoring. I don't want to touch Tinordi or Beaulieu, but we should consider the other guys -- McCarron/DeLa Rose/Fucale -- as trade bait, if it'll bring us the right player in return. Montreal's recent track record of dealing picks has been terrible, but it's because the return was bad and the timing wrong. There's nothing inherently wrong with trading picks & prospects, as long as you get what you really need, when you really need it. Losing a great pick is stupid if we're five years away from contention, but it makes perfect sense to trade a pick if we're one or two years away. We need a top winger right now; I don't know how else Bergevin is going to get it done.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Most of your wish-list will happen organically within the next year.

Subtractions: Bouillon and Murray will likely be gone, Briere's ice time will be reduced or eliminated (though that %$#$%* salary may remain), Gionta will be gone and DD will rise or sink according to actual performance, which is fine.

Additions: One or two of Tinordi/Beaulieu/Pateryn join the club, making our D bigger and (hopefully) better. Galchenyuk gains a year of experience.

Status quo: The rest of our team remains in their prime, between 22 and 32 (assuming Gionta's traded), except for Markov, the oldest at 36.

Then we need to add scoring. I don't want to touch Tinordi or Beaulieu, but we should consider the other guys -- McCarron/DeLa Rose/Fucale -- as trade bait, if it'll bring us the right player in return. Montreal's recent track record of dealing picks has been terrible, but it's because the return was bad and the timing wrong. There's nothing inherently wrong with trading picks & prospects, as long as you get what you really need, when you really need it. Losing a great pick is stupid if we're five years away from contention, but it makes perfect sense to trade a pick if we're one or two years away. We need a top winger right now; I don't know how else Bergevin is going to get it done.

Well okay, we lose a bunch of players and replace a lot of them with rookies. Kind of my point....

If we're going to do this (I think we will) then I'd say we're not going to be in a position to win anything next year. So that's another wasted year for Markov, another year of building towards something and not being good enough to win right away... So why make those trades now? Doesn't it make sense to deal Markov instead and get a younger guy who can win with us down the road?

It comes down to winning a cup right? If we can win it now well, I'm all in. GO FOR IT. But I don't know if those conditions exist right now. If we'd been smarter in the offeseason maybe so... but we're going to be replacing a hell of a lot of players next year with rookies/sophmores. Galchenyuk still isn't a top flight center...

Pains me to see us wasting great seasons by Price and PK but that's what you get when you **** around with half assed rebuilds like we did all those years.

 

[Hoople]

We both agree the foundation is there. And with a spectacular talent like Subban and the potentially best goalie we've had in ages in Price, what other conditions are we waiting for? These guys will be 30 by the time the 2014 picks reach the NHL, Markov will be at the end and Pleks will be past his prime. Time ain't standing still. Does anyone believe the next round of prospects will become better than the guys we currently have? Screw some hypothetical future with imaginary draft picks who magically become stars -- Montreal is an established winning team right now. We're way beyond thinking like losers and being in a rebuild. Once the team is good enough -- which I think we are -- it's time to supplement our strengths, not retreat around our weaknesses.

To be clear, I don't want to trade Tinordi or Beaulieu. Those guys will be a vast improvement on our current bottom pair and hopefully keep improving from there. We also have some really good 3rd line forwards coming up in our prospect pool (possibly 2nd line if we're lucky). Our bottom six forward depth looks amazing. What we don't have is enough top-six scoring talent. Aside from Pacioretty, we lack a bonafide top-line winger, either on our roster or in our system. The hole at the top has been obvious the past three weeks when the team couldn't score. As you said, even our wins looked weak, and it came down to weak scoring.

Team systems can make a mediocre defense strong, but no team system can break a game open with a key goal. That's individual scoring talent. That kind of top-end talent is what we desperately need, and I don't think waiting for picks will make that player materialize. The rest of the check-list looks pretty good: Goalie? Check. Defense? Semi-check, awaiting developing players in Hamilton. 3rd and 4th lines? Check. Top-six forwards? Czech. Plus one Russian/American plus one American. Still thin after Pleks, Pacioretty and Galchenyuk.

Yeah, don't get me started on the Briere contract and the solid winger we could have afforded with that money. But as I've previously posted, I will almost guarantee Bergevin has learned from his mistake and will address the team's real need with his next moves. If that takes trading away a first-round pick or a good roster player, sign me up, as long we get the right guy in return. Time to leverage the future for a better present, because I think we're closer than most people realize.

I agree with this post.

There is no such thing as a perfect window. Not in the NHL. Injuries happen. Slumps happen.

Waiting for the next group of prospects to make it to the NHL so we can make a run is a fools game because the core we have right now is aging every day.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I agree with this post.

There is no such thing as a perfect window. Not in the NHL. Injuries happen. Slumps happen.

Waiting for the next group of prospects to make it to the NHL so we can make a run is a fools game because the core we have right now is aging every day.

How about giving away good young prospects for aging vets when you aren't good enough to win?

Not saying there has to be a perfect window but this team is uh... imperfect to say the least. We've gotten absolutely smoked by the West this year.

I don't know man... Going for it sounds great. Love the idea of us making an actual play for something but there's a lot of deadwood on this roster and its largely undersized up front (pun intended.)

We just flat out haven't played good hockey for a while now and Price has won us games we didn't deserve. That's not a recipe for success. We're basically winning games the Leaf way right now... get outplayed and hope the goalies save the day. That's just not going to last.

 

[Hoople]

How about giving away good young prospects for aging vets when you aren't good enough to win?

Not saying there has to be a perfect window but this team is uh... imperfect to say the least. We've gotten absolutely smoked by the West this year.

I don't know man... Going for it sounds great. Love the idea of us making an actual play for something but there's a lot of deadwood on this roster and its largely undersized up front (pun intended.)

We just flat out haven't played good hockey for a while now and Price has won us games we didn't deserve. That's not a recipe for success. We're basically winning games the Leaf way right now... get outplayed and hope the goalies save the day. That's just not going to last.

There is some dead weight that needs to be removed from this team and we instantly become better. Briere and Bourque.

Briere is a useful player on the Pleks line but it appears Therrien does not want him there. Bourque is a failed experiment.

We need two wingers this season to make a run. Our D is not the best but it is competitive.

And I agree with your post earlier regarding Markov. He should be shopped heavily after the season is over. Nothing worse than having a core that is weighed down by the aging process.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

There is some dead weight that needs to be removed from this team and we instantly become better. Briere and Bourque.

Briere is a useful player on the Pleks line but it appears Therrien does not want him there. Bourque is a failed experiment.

We need two wingers this season to make a run. Our D is not the best but it is competitive.

And I agree with your post earlier regarding Markov. He should be shopped heavily after the season is over. Nothing worse than having a core that is weighed down by the aging process.

Here's the problem... Markov is under contract until the end of the year. We can't shop him in the offseason. Its now or we re-up with him.

 

[Runner77]

What we don't have is enough top-six scoring talent. Aside from Pacioretty, we lack a bonafide top-line winger, either on our roster or in our system.

Scoring being down in the league, how do you acquire these types of players without (gulp) adding players whose profile contributes to our shortcomings in other areas? They are seldom made available and require overpayment, which is a difficult thing to do when a system lacks assets that would otherwise be ideal trade fodder.

We can add to the top 6 but with the spectre of probably creating other holes in the process. It's a bitter pill to swallow and it pains to get into another waiting cycle, but the other options, any option premised on a quicker-fix, I don't think is bankable. Might be different two years from now, in the hopes that Bergevin's tenure generates those convertible assets.

 

[Lshap]

Well okay, we lose a bunch of players and replace a lot of them with rookies. Kind of my point....

If we're going to do this (I think we will) then I'd say we're not going to be in a position to win anything next year. So that's another wasted year for Markov, another year of building towards something and not being good enough to win right away... So why make those trades now? Doesn't it make sense to deal Markov instead and get a younger guy who can win with us down the road?

It comes down to winning a cup right? If we can win it now well, I'm all in. GO FOR IT. But I don't know if those conditions exist right now. If we'd been smarter in the offeseason maybe so... but we're going to be replacing a hell of a lot of players next year with rookies/sophmores. Galchenyuk still isn't a top flight center...

Pains me to see us wasting great seasons by Price and PK but that's what you get when you **** around with half assed rebuilds like we did all those years.

The incoming rookies shouldn't be a step back. The irony about Bouillon and Murray is that they've set the bar low enough so that Tinordi and/or Beaulieu will be an improvement. Give them a little more AHL seasoning and these two rookies could give us a superior defense to what we currently have.

I still don't think they'll singlehandedly make the team elite, but fortifying the defense will at least give us a shot against teams like St-Louis. Truth is, I don't see any way to make the team as good as Chicago or LA no matter what we do, but does that mean we go back into tank mode? No, we've got a good enough foundation to create a legitimate Cup window. Maybe not dominant, but good enough to beat most playoff teams. An added forward gives us a real shot. Whether we go for it now or wait another season or two depends on what this team does in the next month or two. Are we really a low-scoring team or has the last few weeks just been a slump? Was the embarrassing game against LA a clear warning light, or was it an off-night? None of us can say right now.

 

[rafal majka]

Was the embarrassing game against LA a clear warning light, or was it an off-night?

The blowout losses to the Kings and Blue are just symptoms of the possession malaise that's been afflicting the Habs for awhile now. Warning signs was the game against the Devils (Dec. 2) and the loss to the Panthers (Dec. 15.)

In the game against the Panthers, the Habs had a 5-5 Fenwick of 40% and in the game against the Devils it was 35%.

That's TML hockey - hoping to win off of goaltending and SH%.